Coronavirus and You - Page 204

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Harris1st

Germany6995 Posts

July 16 2020 11:10 GMT

#4061

So Mallorca got closed down again.... Thank you fellow people for destroying my only holiday this year and a loooooot of local businesses there. Good job.

Also did anyone mention the party in Nice in France? Holy cow

+ Show Spoiler +

https://www.france24.com/en/20200712-french-mayor-regrets-lack-of-rules-respect-at-nice-dj-set

zatic

Zurich15355 Posts

July 16 2020 12:34 GMT

#4062

As far as I know only Ballermann is closed on Mallorca, which is really what, 2 party streets. The rest of the island including all tourism options are still open.

And I don't get how the party area was open in the first place. Like what did they expect would happen?

Acrofales

Spain18121 Posts

July 16 2020 12:52 GMT

#4063

On July 16 2020 21:34 zatic wrote:
As far as I know only Ballermann is closed on Mallorca, which is really what, 2 party streets. The rest of the island including all tourism options are still open.

And I don't get how the party area was open in the first place. Like what did they expect would happen?

Pretty much this. I didn't think most of the bars ever opened, but apparently they did, and now they're shut down again (as are all major discos). In general Mallorca is (is claiming) to try to take advantage of the crisis to clean up its tourism industry and get rid of the drunks balconing their way to death every year and focus more on family tourism. I guess Amsterdam isn't the only place that has absolutely had it with hordes of adolescents coming to get drunk/high and trash the place.

JimmiC

Canada22817 Posts

July 16 2020 14:03 GMT

#4064

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Kipsate

Netherlands45349 Posts

July 16 2020 14:07 GMT

#4065

A friend of mine lives in the centre of Amsterdam (dunno why you'd want that but whatever), she send me pictures & videos during the height of the lockdown and it was unreal. Like the quietness etc, you could basically hear birds chirping, it was unreal.

Personally I don't really like that part of Amsterdam due to tourists but you can't deny that they bring in tons and tons of money for the city/country. So I am not too unopposed to that, mostly because I don't live there or...ever go there haha I just dodge it. Although with a bit of luck some of the housing prices may go down a bit (as if that will ever happen).

I think its more problematic for areas who rely heavily on tourism as their main source of income. While Amsterdam earns a ridicilous amount of money from tourism it also has alternative areas of income. I mean what is Venice going to do without tourists or Mallorca?

frontliner2

Netherlands844 Posts

July 16 2020 14:43 GMT

#4066

Amsterdam has industry, harbors and financial institutions lots of corporate headquarters. Tourism is nice and a cash cow but not existential indeed.

JimmiC

Canada22817 Posts

July 16 2020 15:21 GMT

#4067

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frontliner2

Netherlands844 Posts

July 16 2020 15:43 GMT

#4068

I fear and i don't mean it mockingly that Americans will be too proud to actually address the problem anyway

Even when millions die or end up in icu

JimmiC

Canada22817 Posts

July 16 2020 15:57 GMT

#4069

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Nouar

France3270 Posts

July 16 2020 16:42 GMT

#4070

On July 16 2020 20:10 Harris1st wrote:
So Mallorca got closed down again.... Thank you fellow people for destroying my only holiday this year and a loooooot of local businesses there. Good job.

Also did anyone mention the party in Nice in France? Holy cow

+ Show Spoiler +

https://www.france24.com/en/20200712-french-mayor-regrets-lack-of-rules-respect-at-nice-dj-set

Fucking idiots who can't spend ONE YEAR without partying... Seriously...

Compulsory mask wear inside public closed spaces was due to be compulsory on the 1st of August, will now be next week due to pushback. It's fine that way I guess. We don't need a lot to go down the slope again, so I hope that will be sufficient.

I still can't see hope for nightclubs and not-seated concerts though. Party life will get hit hard but... is there a choice ?

On July 16 2020 04:38 svl3 wrote:

Show nested quote +

On July 16 2020 03:53 Nouar wrote:

On July 16 2020 03:39 svl3 wrote:

On July 16 2020 01:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:

On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:

On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:

On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:

On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:

On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.

What has changed here when compared to march:

-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport

Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people?

I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations.

Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart?

Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change.

Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below.

+ Show Spoiler +

On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:

Show nested quote +

There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state.

Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey
The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york
On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year.

I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May?

I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low.

On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK.

+ Show Spoiler +

also processed from covidtracking.com

Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order:

"The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening
"The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place

The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run.

As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked.

But... the article you linked was referencing an order from April 7th.

[image loading]

Looking at NY data in April, it was clearly already declining at exactly the same rate before...

With reopening, the US has the opportunity to see what happened in numerous other countries that reopened schools. There is doubt about how at risk kids would be, but we don't need to ponder it we can look at what has already happened, IMO... I know of no country that reopened schools, of the many that did, which reported significant health issues. I agree with the general statements on how to open. There are ways to operate many business types that could cut risk drastically, so if they have an appropriate plan they should be allowed to open.

Because we only reopened schools when the infection rates were back to very low level with barely 1 or 2% positive cases, not during the peak ? And any positive test relative to a school means that school is closed again instantly maybe.
This is also why we could finally afford to open (with distancing measures and a LOT of cleaning from the staff. My wife works there) indoor dining.

Trusting businesses to come up with a good plan by themselves is almost assuredly a disaster in progress. Even if half do it seriously, the other half WILL cheat. That's what businesses do to increase revenue when there are no clear directives and checks.

OK,that was in France, but I don't think that 1-2% was a rule followed everywhere else. Look at what Elon Musk mentioned for his Shanghai factory, and there they went back to work in about a month (referring to the city, I forgot about Tesla specifically, but either way it was way sooner than in the US). Similar was true in Korea, no?

With the last point, I think people and businesses shuold be allowed some personal responsibility. You not trusting businesses does not seem like a good standard to say we cannot allow them to have freedom, it sounds tyrannical to me. Not to mention, if one of the rules involved testing, I think the dispute should be resolved. Under your standard, it seems possible that we are never allowed to reopen, like if we wait around for a vaccine but it fails to work.

No there's no real rule of % of positive tests of course, it's mainly about the overall virus circulation in the country though. Children have lower levels of virus, but they can still infect others, though a lot less. When the virus is barely circulating, it's probably fine. But when you're beating infection records, it's probably not a good time to have hundreds of of thousands of youngsters mingling and some sharing it home... I mean, it's tough to have metrics when it's safe or not, but you can apply some common sense and derive information and calculate chances.

For the second part, no, I'm sorry but when it relates to *public health* I can't trust companies, and I can't trust people either. I could trust most people in nordic countries to respect rules without enforcement, I can't in most cases including in France, even less in the US. And companies are worse. They have already been dealt a blow, and you already have to check for food safety and other basic things usually, so I can't trust them to follow unwritten rules when their company life (and their clients') in on the line.

Under my standards, we would probably end up applying the most measures we can where it's easy, and maybe get some acceptable risks at certain levels, like restaurants, to have entire panes of industry survive. I guess if the levels are low enough, nightclubs and partying could start again with less measures (no masks).
As long as we strike a sweet spot when the virus is circulating but we avoid it spreading uncontrollably, it'd be fine.

The question is how long does immunity stay. If we have dormant cells that can reactivate quickly it's fine, "only" a matter of a few years until we have herd immunity. If not ? Well, tough luck. Maybe we'll find a efficient drug at some point. I'm not really banking on a vaccine since there has been to my knowledge no effective vaccines for any virus of the coronavirus family.
Maybe it's acceptable if it has only a medium efficiency ? Doesn't have to be perfect to allow life to resume ?

Gorsameth

Netherlands21953 Posts

July 16 2020 17:07 GMT

#4071

On July 17 2020 00:21 JimmiC wrote:
All the updates are scary. Texas is getting refridgereated trucks because the morgues are filling up. Are converting a hotel to try to open up space. Cal broke records for icu and hospitalizations. Florida has over 50 hospitals full. Arizona is filling up and needs out of state help. Have ordered 4 portable coolers.

https://.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-07-16-20-intl/h_2c5968581d37a733e14e0dca5db3f17c

Hopefully it is really clear to people that testing is not the problem, to many being infected is. The south is entering NY, Italy and Spain territory. Be safe everyone!!

Georgia governor put in a rule that cities can't wear masks. 😢

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/16/891718516/georgias-governor-issues-order-rescinding-local-mask-mandates?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

Tulsa where trump had his rally is spiking and is putting in a mask ordinance

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.koco.com/amp/article/tulsa-city-council-votes-in-favor-of-face-mask-ordinance/33329553

The problem is that they still are not going into lockdown as far as I understand. So these problem area's are still more then 2 weeks away from stabilising.

Danglars

United States12133 Posts

July 16 2020 17:14 GMT

#4072

AZ is starting to look better. Hospitals are crowded, but most surge capacity was not needed. Bed utilization of both ICU and normal has stalled in the 85-89% range (compare with non-pandemic rates of 50-60%) (https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php)

Emnjay808

United States10660 Posts

July 16 2020 18:52 GMT

#4073

Are these insane spikes in cases at all related to the BLM protests? This got scary real quick. Hawaii is seeing 50cases/day and sitting at 1000 active cases. Basically back to square one for us.

LegalLord

United States13779 Posts

July 16 2020 19:13 GMT

#4074

On July 17 2020 03:52 Emnjay808 wrote:
Are these insane spikes in cases at all related to the BLM protests? This got scary real quick. Hawaii is seeing 50cases/day and sitting at 1000 active cases. Basically back to square one for us.

Likely more so due to the widespread easing of quarantine rules and the careless attitude of quite a few people. The protests probably had a mixed effect in that beyond the protesters themselves, people tend to stay inside throughout the protest and avoid going to the specific crowded areas where the protests happen.

Freaky[x]

Canada995 Posts

July 16 2020 19:15 GMT

#4075

Are there any reliable sources now (wednesday) that the numbers from each hospital does not go through the CDC but straight to the WH?
I would like to know if they will cook their numbers to calm the population

DarkPlasmaBall

United States45051 Posts

July 16 2020 19:23 GMT

#4076

Doesn't seem to be. There were plenty of protests in the states that are doing reasonably well at the moment, and the exponential increase seems to be more in line with when the southern states eased up on restrictions.

DarkPlasmaBall

United States45051 Posts

July 16 2020 19:26 GMT

#4077

On July 17 2020 04:15 Freaky[x] wrote:
Are there any reliable sources now (wednesday) that the numbers from each hospital does not go through the CDC but straight to the WH?
I would like to know if they will cook their numbers to calm the population

Yes, many:

1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/15/891351706/white-house-strips-cdc-of-data-collection-role-for-covid-19-hospitalizations
2. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-data-cdc-hospitals-trump-administration/
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html
Tons of others: https://www.google.com/search?q=hospital data white house cdc&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS837US837&oq=hospital data white house cdc&aqs=chrome..69i57j33l3.2867j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

And this pretty much means exactly what you're worried about: Trump is going to attempt to fake the numbers and pretend that everything's okay (or, at least, being fixed nice and quickly).

Freaky[x]

Canada995 Posts

July 16 2020 20:00 GMT

#4078

On July 17 2020 04:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:

Show nested quote +

Sorry, are there any reliable source from now on ? Is there any other source that we can use?

JimmiC

Canada22817 Posts

July 16 2020 22:28 GMT

#4079

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Acrofales

Spain18121 Posts

July 16 2020 22:31 GMT

#4080

On July 17 2020 07:28 JimmiC wrote:

Show nested quote +

Umm NPR is probably the most reliable source there is in the US. If not them, then who would you consider reliable?

You missed the point. NPR doesn't collect this data, they just write articles about it. If the data is unreliable, NPR can write that the data is unreliable, but that doesn't help anybody much, does it?

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