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On July 16 2020 03:39 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 01:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year. I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May? I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low. On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK. + Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/54GfBEf.png) also processed from covidtracking.com Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order: "The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening "The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run. As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked. But... the article you linked was referencing an order from April 7th. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/NqLaQ2Z.png) Looking at NY data in April, it was clearly already declining at exactly the same rate before... With reopening, the US has the opportunity to see what happened in numerous other countries that reopened schools. There is doubt about how at risk kids would be, but we don't need to ponder it we can look at what has already happened, IMO... I know of no country that reopened schools, of the many that did, which reported significant health issues. I agree with the general statements on how to open. There are ways to operate many business types that could cut risk drastically, so if they have an appropriate plan they should be allowed to open.
The article was updated on April 7th, but the order "was put into place on March 20, and will be in effect through April 29." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place
Those final 11 days in March (plus, remember, allowing for approximately 2-3 additional weeks of wiggle room for the incubation period and data to be compiled, starting on March 20) is right around the point of inflection for NY cases. By April, you're absolutely right that NY was seeing the positive effects of the state shutting down.
Edit: I'm sure there are many variables and factors to consider. This is just one thing that I think had an influence and correlation.
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On July 16 2020 03:43 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 03:35 Nevuk wrote:On July 16 2020 03:25 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 02:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 02:09 Danglars wrote:
Cuomo’s decision to send patients sick with coronavirus back to the care homes they came from is immediately responsible for thousands and thousands of deaths. It was a March 25th directive. He has since tried to excuse and cover up for the mistake. 1. Both with Cuomo (NY) and Murphy (NJ), the hospitals were literally full and there was nowhere else to put sick, old people, so they tried putting them in another facility that at least had some infrastructure for taking care of sick, old people. Nothing was ideal about that, but it's not like there were a ton of empty hospital beds and people were turned away for no reason. 2. I don't think anyone is saying that NY and NJ have been perfect throughout the entire coronavirus crisis; obviously, there were serious, serious issues at the beginning of the pandemic, and those states were especially not prepared for a variety of reasons. We were discussing how states have been currently handling the situation though, which is different. I think (1) is objectively wrong to a large degree. NY famously had unused overflow hospitals and a navy ship sent that got neglected and eventually dismantled due to low use... There absolutely was somewhere else to go. Probably more expensive. It's a tragedy. The navy ship was unused because it was specifically only for non-Covid patients. Considering basically everyone in NYC had been exposed to the virus, it wound up being almost entirely useless. That is the opposite of was reported on the News. It was also reported the other overflow field hospitals were not used. https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/many-field-hospitals-went-largely-unused-will-be-shut-down/
It was originally purposed for the hypothesized “hospitals will be too overrun to handle car accidents, bodily injury,” but was quickly converted, once those didn’t materialize. Cuomo’s order rapidly caused an increase of deaths in nursing homes, some of which weren’t reported as nursing home deaths since they were transferred back to hospitals before they died. He’s since made several good steps, but using them to erase absolutely disastrous decisions is the wrong move.
Overflow capacity set up in Central Park also went mostly unused.
Late school closures and the encouragement to participate in Chinese New Year in outdoor public spaces were also more minor offenses from the governor and mayor. Not that they were alone in govt officials:
It is important to support the Chinese community in New York City. Unfortunately many businesses and restaurants in Chinatown, Flushing and Sunset Park are suffering because some customers are afraid of the coronavirus. But those fears are not based on facts and science. The risk of infection to New Yorkers is low. There is no need to avoid public spaces. I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual
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On July 16 2020 03:53 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 03:39 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 01:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year. I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May? I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low. On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK. + Show Spoiler +also processed from covidtracking.com Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order: "The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening "The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run. As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked. But... the article you linked was referencing an order from April 7th. Looking at NY data in April, it was clearly already declining at exactly the same rate before... With reopening, the US has the opportunity to see what happened in numerous other countries that reopened schools. There is doubt about how at risk kids would be, but we don't need to ponder it we can look at what has already happened, IMO... I know of no country that reopened schools, of the many that did, which reported significant health issues. I agree with the general statements on how to open. There are ways to operate many business types that could cut risk drastically, so if they have an appropriate plan they should be allowed to open. Because we only reopened schools when the infection rates were back to very low level with barely 1 or 2% positive cases, not during the peak ? And any positive test relative to a school means that school is closed again instantly maybe. This is also why we could finally afford to open (with distancing measures and a LOT of cleaning from the staff. My wife works there) indoor dining. Trusting businesses to come up with a good plan by themselves is almost assuredly a disaster in progress. Even if half do it seriously, the other half WILL cheat. That's what businesses do to increase revenue when there are no clear directives and checks.
OK,that was in France, but I don't think that 1-2% was a rule followed everywhere else. Look at what Elon Musk mentioned for his Shanghai factory, and there they went back to work in about a month (referring to the city, I forgot about Tesla specifically, but either way it was way sooner than in the US). Similar was true in Korea, no?
With the last point, I think people and businesses shuold be allowed some personal responsibility. You not trusting businesses does not seem like a good standard to say we cannot allow them to have freedom, it sounds tyrannical to me. Not to mention, if one of the rules involved testing, I think the dispute should be resolved. Under your standard, it seems possible that we are never allowed to reopen, like if we wait around for a vaccine but it fails to work.
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Is there anything to stop hospitals from sending numbers to both groups?
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On July 16 2020 04:38 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 03:53 Nouar wrote:On July 16 2020 03:39 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 01:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year. I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May? I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low. On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK. + Show Spoiler +also processed from covidtracking.com Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order: "The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening "The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run. As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked. But... the article you linked was referencing an order from April 7th. Looking at NY data in April, it was clearly already declining at exactly the same rate before... With reopening, the US has the opportunity to see what happened in numerous other countries that reopened schools. There is doubt about how at risk kids would be, but we don't need to ponder it we can look at what has already happened, IMO... I know of no country that reopened schools, of the many that did, which reported significant health issues. I agree with the general statements on how to open. There are ways to operate many business types that could cut risk drastically, so if they have an appropriate plan they should be allowed to open. Because we only reopened schools when the infection rates were back to very low level with barely 1 or 2% positive cases, not during the peak ? And any positive test relative to a school means that school is closed again instantly maybe. This is also why we could finally afford to open (with distancing measures and a LOT of cleaning from the staff. My wife works there) indoor dining. Trusting businesses to come up with a good plan by themselves is almost assuredly a disaster in progress. Even if half do it seriously, the other half WILL cheat. That's what businesses do to increase revenue when there are no clear directives and checks. OK,that was in France, but I don't think that 1-2% was a rule followed everywhere else. Look at what Elon Musk mentioned for his Shanghai factory, and there they went back to work in about a month (referring to the city, I forgot about Tesla specifically, but either way it was way sooner than in the US). Similar was true in Korea, no? With the last point, I think people and businesses shuold be allowed some personal responsibility. You not trusting businesses does not seem like a good standard to say we cannot allow them to have freedom, it sounds tyrannical to me. Not to mention, if one of the rules involved testing, I think the dispute should be resolved. Under your standard, it seems possible that we are never allowed to reopen, like if we wait around for a vaccine but it fails to work. Singapore and Korea never had the major outbreak level that Europe saw. Because they acted quickly and have easily controlled access into the country.
Your trying to compare re-opening in the US during a massive viral boom to the rest of the world at a low point.
And fuck personal responsibility. I think the last few months have shown very clearly that 'personal responsibility' doesn't work in the US.
Nor do people have the possibility of personal responsibility when their business decides to literally kill them to stay open for the almighty $$. Their only option is to go to work and pray they make it out ok or get fired in a country with barely any social safety net during a period of massive unemployment.
There was once a time where we looked at zombie/plague outbreak movies and thought to ourselves "nice movie but surely in the real world we would deal with it and stop it from spreading everywhere".
Now we know, we wouldn't.
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On July 16 2020 05:43 Nevuk wrote:
Is there anything to stop hospitals from sending numbers to both groups?
The instructions also explicitly bar hospitals from reporting to the CDC in addition to HHS: "As of July 15, 2020, hospitals should no longer report the COVID-19 information in this document to the National Healthcare Safety Network site," the document explains, referring to the CDC's system.
I don't know if the quote supports the barring of reporting, but it suggests that it should not be reported.
We might start seeing a false drop in cases that go off cdc data as hospitals miss reports to the cdc
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India is still on the exponential curve. Not as explosive as Brazil or the US were, but a steady descent into disaster (if it's not already 10x worse). Don't see it getting better any time soon.
Mexico is noteworthy as well - without much fanfare, it has racked up more death than most European countries. Looks frightening.
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On July 16 2020 06:46 LegalLord wrote:India is still on the exponential curve. Not as explosive as Brazil or the US were, but a steady descent into disaster (if it's not already 10x worse). Don't see it getting better any time soon. Mexico is noteworthy as well - without much fanfare, it has racked up more death than most European countries. Looks frightening.
Don't worry, soon they'll hit the sweet spot of infected persons and the number will magically go down without taking any measures.
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On July 16 2020 07:24 Erasme wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 06:46 LegalLord wrote:India is still on the exponential curve. Not as explosive as Brazil or the US were, but a steady descent into disaster (if it's not already 10x worse). Don't see it getting better any time soon. Mexico is noteworthy as well - without much fanfare, it has racked up more death than most European countries. Looks frightening. Don't worry, soon they'll hit the sweet spot of infected persons and the number will magically go down without taking any measures.
Sarcasm? Or source? Or are you just extrapolating to an eventual level where almost everyone gets sick and either dies or survives, with herd immunity kicking in from that point forwards (which is definitely not "soon" and would certainly be tragic)?
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Well, once 100% of your population got it, it will go down. Considering the damages done by then, it was sarcarstic.
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On July 16 2020 07:31 Erasme wrote:
Well, once 100% of your population got it, it will go down. Considering the damages done by then, it was sarcarstic.
That's what I figured, but it's getting harder and harder for me to correctly identify sarcasm on the internet ^^;;;
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And Texas still hasn't meaningfully gone back in to lockdown no? So there is at least 2 more weeks of growth to come.
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The US just had another day over 70k new cases.
Deaths is starting to rise again to 900s and will probably pop back over the 1k mark soon.
There's also 17 states above 1000 cases/day, up from 11 or so last time I checked, so it's across a lot of states this go around.
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From that site:
July 9 - Color Scale Will Be Updated
Unfortunately when a map becomes all "red", it becomes less useful. We will be making an update shortly that will adjust our color scale and how each state is graded. The shift will put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity". It will continue to include ILI, ICU availability, and testing throughput. It will deemphasize case growth.
July 10 - Updated Color Scale
As a country we've reached a record number of cases. We've added a new color to the scale: "Bruised Red". There were extremes that were not captured in our original scale. Our scale also has been adjusted to put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity".
Really tells you all you need to know.
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On July 16 2020 07:31 Erasme wrote:
Well, once 100% of your population got it, it will go down. Considering the damages done by then, it was sarcarstic.
Assuming long lasting (natural) immunity.
Which is a big assumption not because its so unlikely but because of the ramifications.
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EPT
