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On July 15 2020 23:44 farvacola wrote:
Are you really asking how a state containing the most densely populated city in the United States that alone has more than double Sweden's population has a significantly higher death rate than the entire country of Sweden?
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Wow. If you didn't want to read the post, you could have read the graph.
Density might play a role in several things, but randomly pointing out 1 single difference to dismiss a point isn't persuasive. It might affect the spreading speed but that would only affect mortality if hospitals became overloaded, which was notably documented to not have happened.
Perhaps you think density made it harder on NY to prevent the spread, but preventing the spread has little relevance when comparing to a country that did little to try to decrease the spread in an attempt to go for herd immunity. Even if they do not actually reach that, it remains a moot point unless you think Sweden will eventually pass NY in deaths per capita. I'd happily bet against you.
I'm not aware of anywhere known to have done worse than NY in deaths per capita, regardless of density. IIRC, NY had over 1/3 of the deaths in nursing homes because they stuffed infected patients with the most at-risk demographic, whereas I've heard it mentioned that Sweden prioritized safety of the elderly. That would go a long way in explaining the discrepancy. Dubious that density is a sufficient excuse for the gigantic difference in deaths per capita with NY.
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On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations.
Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? They took a few months to begin cleaning their trains. Their behavior lacks social distancing. Google ''protests in New York''. Jam packed elbow to elbow, often no masks, shouting. Attributing anything to smart behavior is absurd, unless these are all from outside of NY and didn't get tested there.
I'm surprised by NY too at the moment. I would hypothesize that if NY maintains the low infection rate it may be due to a higher level of immunity, which again was hypothesized to be >40% months ago through antibody detection. I don't think we can rely on positive tests to estimate the amount of people infected because some may have already been infected and no longer test positive (depending on test) and it is likely meaningless inferring the infected % unless most of the population was tested.
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On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart?
Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change.
Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below.
+ Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year.
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On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people?
I think the main thing missing from your list is no touching. No shaking hands, no kissing people on cheeks, not a lot of hugging. Also probably much better case tracking. All of these things add up, each of these reduces the chance that someone passes the virus on.
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On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year.
I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May?
I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low.
On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK.
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/54GfBEf.png) also processed from covidtracking.com
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On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year. I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May? I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low. On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK. + Show Spoiler +also processed from covidtracking.com
Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order:
"The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening
"The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place
The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run.
As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked.
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[B]On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote
As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity,
This is a lie dude, and anyone that's worked in a restaurant before knows it.
There is no way to make indoor dining safe for customers or employees, even with a lowered capacity. There is FAR too much contact between people and their mouths in a restaurant to be safe for the employees that work there and that's assuming that people even follow policies in the first place. And believe me, people are gross dude a lot of them won't.
Outdoor dining, isn't much better but at least there you don't have a bunch of people's saliva getting recylced back into the establishment through the AC.
It just takes one sick person that either doesn't know or doesn't care that they're sick to infect a whole restaurant staff and have it shut down again anyway.
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Cuomo’s decision to send patients sick with coronavirus back to the care homes they came from is immediately responsible for thousands and thousands of deaths. It was a March 25th directive. He has since tried to excuse and cover up for the mistake.
The later ones, like how long it took de Blasio and Cuomo to get on top of subway car saborizado on, pale by comparison. Don’t let one of the worst, and probably the worst, performing governor get away with it because he played catch-up in front of TV cameras.
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On July 16 2020 01:49 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +[B]On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote
As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, This is a lie dude, and anyone that's worked in a restaurant before knows it. There is no way to make indoor dining safe for customers or employees, even with a lowered capacity. There is FAR too much contact between people and their mouths in a restaurant to be safe for the employees that work there and that's assuming that people even follow policies in the first place. And believe me, people are gross dude a lot of them won't. Outdoor dining, isn't much better but at least there you don't have a bunch of people's saliva getting recylced back into the establishment through the AC. It just takes one sick person that either doesn't know or doesn't care that they're sick to infect a whole restaurant staff and have it shut down again anyway.
First of all, it's not a lie. It's my opinion, and I could totally be wrong about my position, but there's no need to accuse me of lying. Easy with the accusations. I'm happy to discuss the logistics of restaurants reopening with you.
I think restaurants reopening is a much harder task to figure out than the average business where you walk in, make a purchase, and walk out, for at least three reasons:
1. people tend to spend a much longer amount of time sitting down to a nice meal than if they were merely shopping, so having a line and limiting the number of customers is much harder to do at a restaurant than at a local supermarket or small business;
2. the employees (chefs, waiters, etc.) are interacting with food and napkins and silverware, and even with reasonable sanitation protocols, it's likely impossible to avoid transmission between customers and employees;
3. masks need to come off when you eat, obviously.
For those reasons, I won't be eating at any restaurants, even those who have outdoor seating with tables far apart. But restaurants often have more alternatives than only dining in, with customers only eating at the restaurant. What I was referring to, when I suggested that restaurants could potentially open, is that many restaurants in my area have reopened as 100% delivery and/or pick-up only, without dine-in (i.e., "sit down and eat at this restaurant") options. That's what I'm talking about. I don't mind picking up food or having it delivered to me, as I think that significantly minimizes risk. Thoughts?
Edit: I just realized you messed up your quoting tag... that's my statement, not pmh's.
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On July 16 2020 02:09 Danglars wrote:
Cuomo’s decision to send patients sick with coronavirus back to the care homes they came from is immediately responsible for thousands and thousands of deaths. It was a March 25th directive. He has since tried to excuse and cover up for the mistake.
1. Both with Cuomo (NY) and Murphy (NJ), the hospitals were literally full and there was nowhere else to put sick, old people, so they tried putting them in another facility that at least had some infrastructure for taking care of sick, old people. Nothing was ideal about that, but it's not like there were a ton of empty hospital beds and people were turned away for no reason.
2. I don't think anyone is saying that NY and NJ have been perfect throughout the entire coronavirus crisis; obviously, there were serious, serious issues at the beginning of the pandemic, and those states were especially not prepared for a variety of reasons. We were discussing how states have been currently handling the situation though, which is different.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
I honestly don't understand why Cuomo was largely considered to be a "hero" in the early coronavirus response - many of his responses (the nursing care item Danglars highlighted, and the delay in the decision to shut down schools) directly contributed to how bad this got in NY State and NYC. I think a more critical "some good, some bad" appraisal would have been more reasonable, but that's not what I saw back then.
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On July 16 2020 02:29 LegalLord wrote:
I honestly don't understand why Cuomo was largely considered to be a "hero" in the early coronavirus response - many of his responses (the nursing care item Danglars highlighted, and the delay in the decision to shut down schools) directly contributed to how bad this got in NY State and NYC. I think a more critical "some good, some bad" appraisal would have been more reasonable, but that's not what I saw back then.
Is that what actually happened? It doesn't seem like he did anything particularly great until mid-April onward; are you sure people were praising him before that?
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On July 16 2020 02:32 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 02:29 LegalLord wrote:
I honestly don't understand why Cuomo was largely considered to be a "hero" in the early coronavirus response - many of his responses (the nursing care item Danglars highlighted, and the delay in the decision to shut down schools) directly contributed to how bad this got in NY State and NYC. I think a more critical "some good, some bad" appraisal would have been more reasonable, but that's not what I saw back then. Is that what actually happened? It doesn't seem like he did anything particularly great until mid-April onward; are you sure people were praising him before that?
Yeah. I agree that he didn't do anything particularly great (even April onward - honestly I credit Italy and Los Angeles for laying out the correct response to a large infection). The praise was definitely there, though, IMO largely undeserved.
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On July 16 2020 02:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 02:09 Danglars wrote:
Cuomo’s decision to send patients sick with coronavirus back to the care homes they came from is immediately responsible for thousands and thousands of deaths. It was a March 25th directive. He has since tried to excuse and cover up for the mistake. 1. Both with Cuomo (NY) and Murphy (NJ), the hospitals were literally full and there was nowhere else to put sick, old people, so they tried putting them in another facility that at least had some infrastructure for taking care of sick, old people. Nothing was ideal about that, but it's not like there were a ton of empty hospital beds and people were turned away for no reason. 2. I don't think anyone is saying that NY and NJ have been perfect throughout the entire coronavirus crisis; obviously, there were serious, serious issues at the beginning of the pandemic, and those states were especially not prepared for a variety of reasons. We were discussing how states have been currently handling the situation though, which is different.
I think (1) is objectively wrong to a large degree. NY famously had unused overflow hospitals and a navy ship sent that got neglected and eventually dismantled due to low use... There absolutely was somewhere else to go. Probably more expensive. It's a tragedy.
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Zurich15329 Posts
On July 16 2020 00:57 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I think the main thing missing from your list is no touching. No shaking hands, no kissing people on cheeks, not a lot of hugging. Also probably much better case tracking. All of these things add up, each of these reduces the chance that someone passes the virus on.
Also in February we, the central and nordic European countries imported the virus from Tyrol into every corner of our countries for like 3 weeks straight before ANY measures were being taken. And then it was everywhere at once with thousands of cases in the more populated areas already, all growing unchecked. Compare that to today where any outbreak of more than a dozen cases is treated extremely seriously and prompts immediate quarantine and restrictions. It's just not the same situation even with measures very much relaxed at the moment.
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On July 16 2020 03:25 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 02:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 02:09 Danglars wrote:
Cuomo’s decision to send patients sick with coronavirus back to the care homes they came from is immediately responsible for thousands and thousands of deaths. It was a March 25th directive. He has since tried to excuse and cover up for the mistake. 1. Both with Cuomo (NY) and Murphy (NJ), the hospitals were literally full and there was nowhere else to put sick, old people, so they tried putting them in another facility that at least had some infrastructure for taking care of sick, old people. Nothing was ideal about that, but it's not like there were a ton of empty hospital beds and people were turned away for no reason. 2. I don't think anyone is saying that NY and NJ have been perfect throughout the entire coronavirus crisis; obviously, there were serious, serious issues at the beginning of the pandemic, and those states were especially not prepared for a variety of reasons. We were discussing how states have been currently handling the situation though, which is different. I think (1) is objectively wrong to a large degree. NY famously had unused overflow hospitals and a navy ship sent that got neglected and eventually dismantled due to low use... There absolutely was somewhere else to go. Probably more expensive. It's a tragedy.
The navy ship was unused because it was specifically only for non-Covid patients. Considering basically everyone in NYC had been exposed to the virus, it wound up being almost entirely useless.
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On July 16 2020 01:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year. I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May? I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low. On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK. + Show Spoiler +also processed from covidtracking.com Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order: "The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening "The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run. As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked.
But... the article you linked was referencing an order from April 7th.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/NqLaQ2Z.png)
Looking at NY data in April, it was clearly already declining at exactly the same rate before...
With reopening, the US has the opportunity to see what happened in numerous other countries that reopened schools. There is doubt about how at risk kids would be, but we don't need to ponder it we can look at what has already happened, IMO... I know of no country that reopened schools, of the many that did, which reported significant health issues. I agree with the general statements on how to open. There are ways to operate many business types that could cut risk drastically, so if they have an appropriate plan they should be allowed to open.
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On July 16 2020 03:35 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 03:25 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 02:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 02:09 Danglars wrote:
Cuomo’s decision to send patients sick with coronavirus back to the care homes they came from is immediately responsible for thousands and thousands of deaths. It was a March 25th directive. He has since tried to excuse and cover up for the mistake. 1. Both with Cuomo (NY) and Murphy (NJ), the hospitals were literally full and there was nowhere else to put sick, old people, so they tried putting them in another facility that at least had some infrastructure for taking care of sick, old people. Nothing was ideal about that, but it's not like there were a ton of empty hospital beds and people were turned away for no reason. 2. I don't think anyone is saying that NY and NJ have been perfect throughout the entire coronavirus crisis; obviously, there were serious, serious issues at the beginning of the pandemic, and those states were especially not prepared for a variety of reasons. We were discussing how states have been currently handling the situation though, which is different. I think (1) is objectively wrong to a large degree. NY famously had unused overflow hospitals and a navy ship sent that got neglected and eventually dismantled due to low use... There absolutely was somewhere else to go. Probably more expensive. It's a tragedy. The navy ship was unused because it was specifically only for non-Covid patients. Considering basically everyone in NYC had been exposed to the virus, it wound up being almost entirely useless.
That is the opposite of was reported on the News.
It was also reported the other overflow field hospitals were not used.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/many-field-hospitals-went-largely-unused-will-be-shut-down/
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On July 16 2020 03:39 svl3 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2020 01:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 01:02 svl3 wrote:On July 16 2020 00:34 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 16 2020 00:31 svl3 wrote:On July 15 2020 23:56 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 15 2020 23:45 pmh wrote:
The virus makes no sense at all and i dont understand it anymore.
We (the netherlands) are pretty much are back in the same situation as at the start of the outbreak,yet in march this let to an explosion of cases and now from almost the same starting situation there is no explosion of cases.
Same for new york in the usa,while i asume there must be a lot of interstate and international travel towards and from new york still.
Why does it not let to an explosion of cases this time,i honestly dont understand.
What has changed here when compared to march:
-Better hygiene (hand washing)
-Social distancing (though many people dont follow this anymore)
-No mass events
-Non medical masks in public transport
Infections are estimated to have maxed out below 10% of the population,so it can not be some sort of immunity either.
If the virus was airborne cases should have exploded. Non medical masks provide virtually no protection against airborne virus (and specially not the way most people seem to wear them). Yet the superspread events seem to point to the virus beeing airborne in at least some situations. It all so weird. Then also halve the people showing no symptoms,while for others the disease is very severe. Is there any other virus with such a wide range of impact on different people? I don't think this is the case. NY and NJ have taken extremely strong measures to quarantine, reduce travel, and promote smart behavior, and the results have been great so far. This is in stark contrast to, say, the southern states, who are all doing worse now and have lost control over their situations. Uh, NY has the worst deaths per capita in the country and maybe world. How on earth have they been smart? Because pmh was talking about current status, not the status months ago, and you need to look at the trends of how NY and NJ have been successfully dealing with coronavirus. I believe we've already talked quite a bit on how "totals" is a very different variable than rate of change. Edit: I wrote this a few pages ago; perhaps you missed it. See the spoiler below. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2020 23:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state. Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely? https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year. I see your point and generally think that way too, but in terms of this case, did policy change at the same time as NYs downward trend? I would think the low numbers are due to another reason even if policy was good in NY now, unless the change in policy was something very dramatic. Was there some huge improvement in NY at a similar time as the downward trends in these graphs below? I'm not closely following NY but I think the lack of distancing and so on during protests should have exceeded their bad behavior relating to distancing and so on from April and May? I'm very surprised at the downward pattern there. My guess is there is either a testing problem or perhaps some degree of greater immunity. But no reason to expect a testing or reporting problem all of a sudden. Anyways it will be remarkable if they stay so low. On a different note, are you referring to opening everything or just schools? Because a lot of countries reopened their schools for some time and have been quite OK. + Show Spoiler +also processed from covidtracking.com Yes. Both the NY governor (Cuomo) and the NYC mayor (de Blasio) made huge, immediate policy changes at that time, such as the executive PAUSE order: "The five boroughs were all but paralyzed under the novel coronavirus pandemic with more than 213,000 confirmed cases across the city and over 23,000 lives lost to COVID-19. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive PAUSE order, nonessential businesses were shuttered and restaurants were open only for takeout and delivery — nearly 900,000 jobs vanished practically overnight." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/13/21177322/new-york-city-covid-19-coronavirus-reopening "The executive order, which Cuomo calls PAUSE—which stands for “Policies Assure Uniform Safety for Everyone”—mandates that any businesses not deemed “essential” must keep 100 percent of their workforce home. Any businesses that do not comply could face fines or enforcement measures. It also requires that all non-essential gatherings be canceled, and that anyone going outside maintain at least six feet of space between themselves and others." https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/21187022/coronavirus-new-york-shutdown-shelter-in-place The leaders of NY/NYC (and NJ) shut down shit hard as a response, and it was super inconvenient for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans, but it saved lives and helped get things under control. The alternative was to keep things open and have things way worse in the long run. As to your final question regarding the opening of schools and/or businesses: I think there are very reasonable ways to reopen businesses (and even restaurants) in a limited and cautious capacity, but there are very few (if any) American states that I think would have a successful reopening of schools. For as much as I'm proud of the way NY and NJ have been recently handling things, I'm pretty confident they would almost immediately relapse into chaos and cause a second coronavirus spike within their states if they reopened schools in late August / early September. By October, we'd be fucked. But... the article you linked was referencing an order from April 7th. Looking at NY data in April, it was clearly already declining at exactly the same rate before... With reopening, the US has the opportunity to see what happened in numerous other countries that reopened schools. There is doubt about how at risk kids would be, but we don't need to ponder it we can look at what has already happened, IMO... I know of no country that reopened schools, of the many that did, which reported significant health issues. I agree with the general statements on how to open. There are ways to operate many business types that could cut risk drastically, so if they have an appropriate plan they should be allowed to open.
Because we only reopened schools when the infection rates were back to very low level with barely 1 or 2% positive cases, not during the peak ? And any positive test relative to a school means that school is closed again instantly maybe.
This is also why we could finally afford to open (with distancing measures and a LOT of cleaning from the staff. My wife works there) indoor dining.
Trusting businesses to come up with a good plan by themselves is almost assuredly a disaster in progress. Even if half do it seriously, the other half WILL cheat. That's what businesses do to increase revenue when there are no clear directives and checks.
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EPT
