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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
On April 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote: Fyi, worldometers is overcounting France's numbers. It's not that bad. The real data is available here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ They are counting double on nursing homes confirmed cases (as they are already included in the total), and they are also adding suspected cases (symptoms but no test).
The difference between confirmed cases in nursing homes (17k) and suspected ones (32k) that haven't been tested is kinda crazy and a huge fail in my opinion. You should absolutely test these people due to the risk of complications (age) or because they are carers....
Well. The real number of cases is either 108 847 for confirmed cases 140 722 for confirmed + suspected cases
But definitely not 165k as reported.
In good news, hospital numbers are finally dropping a lot, we are down to 6.2k in ICU compared to more than 7k a week ago, and regular beds are lowering as well.
On April 17 2020 05:50 Aveng3r wrote: For those who were discussing the possibility that Covid-19 escaped from a Wuhan virology lab, please skip to the 18:00 mark of this video and watch:
It did not come from a lab. It jumped from an animal.
Well, to be fair, their P4 lab studies natural Coronaviruses in animals. It could have escaped from there without it being a bioweapon, so it makes sense to investigate the possibility. It is not fair to draw conclusions though.
I believe there is a consensus that it is not manmade nor tinkered with. But these lab study live viruses.
Its perfectly fair to draw conclusions. In your post you conclude that Worldometers is overreporting French casualties, in my post I conclude that Covid-19 did not come from a weapons lab because I've listened to an expert.
Whats the difference?
You draw conclusions based on one expert interview, who offers no proof. I based my conclusion on a glaring counting error in an addition on one website, supported by official data. N=A+B is the total, not A+A+B.
I don't even see how you can compare? John Hopkins dashboard doesn't make that counting error and reports a correct number.
PS : danglars said the exact same thing I did (but better), and "that's fine" for you, but not mine? :-D I'll stop there...
Now after the situation in the US is out of hand, he is putting all resources at shifting the blame entirely on WHO and China. He waited along time to conduct this investigation of supposedly Wuhan lab created SARS-CoV-2.
On April 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote: Fyi, worldometers is overcounting France's numbers. It's not that bad. The real data is available here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ They are counting double on nursing homes confirmed cases (as they are already included in the total), and they are also adding suspected cases (symptoms but no test).
The difference between confirmed cases in nursing homes (17k) and suspected ones (32k) that haven't been tested is kinda crazy and a huge fail in my opinion. You should absolutely test these people due to the risk of complications (age) or because they are carers....
Well. The real number of cases is either 108 847 for confirmed cases 140 722 for confirmed + suspected cases
But definitely not 165k as reported.
In good news, hospital numbers are finally dropping a lot, we are down to 6.2k in ICU compared to more than 7k a week ago, and regular beds are lowering as well.
On April 17 2020 05:50 Aveng3r wrote: For those who were discussing the possibility that Covid-19 escaped from a Wuhan virology lab, please skip to the 18:00 mark of this video and watch:
It did not come from a lab. It jumped from an animal.
Well, to be fair, their P4 lab studies natural Coronaviruses in animals. It could have escaped from there without it being a bioweapon, so it makes sense to investigate the possibility. It is not fair to draw conclusions though.
I believe there is a consensus that it is not manmade nor tinkered with. But these lab study live viruses.
Its perfectly fair to draw conclusions. In your post you conclude that Worldometers is overreporting French casualties, in my post I conclude that Covid-19 did not come from a weapons lab because I've listened to an expert.
Whats the difference?
You draw conclusions based on one expert interview, who offers no proof. I based my conclusion on a glaring counting error in an addition on one website, supported by official data. N=A+B is the total, not A+A+B.
I don't even see how you can compare? John Hopkins dashboard doesn't make that counting error and reports a correct number.
PS : danglars said the exact same thing I did (but better), and "that's fine" for you, but not mine? :-D I'll stop there...
Yes, I draw conclusions from the word of an expert. I can't prove what he says is true kinda the same way that I can't prove that the earth is round, but we can say with some confidence that it is true.
How can you prove that the numbers you cite are accurate? Are you going to present information that somebody else told you? I've presented information from a reputable source, I can only assume that you're going to do the same?
On April 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote: Fyi, worldometers is overcounting France's numbers. It's not that bad. The real data is available here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ They are counting double on nursing homes confirmed cases (as they are already included in the total), and they are also adding suspected cases (symptoms but no test).
The difference between confirmed cases in nursing homes (17k) and suspected ones (32k) that haven't been tested is kinda crazy and a huge fail in my opinion. You should absolutely test these people due to the risk of complications (age) or because they are carers....
Well. The real number of cases is either 108 847 for confirmed cases 140 722 for confirmed + suspected cases
But definitely not 165k as reported.
In good news, hospital numbers are finally dropping a lot, we are down to 6.2k in ICU compared to more than 7k a week ago, and regular beds are lowering as well.
On April 17 2020 05:50 Aveng3r wrote: For those who were discussing the possibility that Covid-19 escaped from a Wuhan virology lab, please skip to the 18:00 mark of this video and watch:
It did not come from a lab. It jumped from an animal.
Well, to be fair, their P4 lab studies natural Coronaviruses in animals. It could have escaped from there without it being a bioweapon, so it makes sense to investigate the possibility. It is not fair to draw conclusions though.
I believe there is a consensus that it is not manmade nor tinkered with. But these lab study live viruses.
Its perfectly fair to draw conclusions. In your post you conclude that Worldometers is overreporting French casualties, in my post I conclude that Covid-19 did not come from a weapons lab because I've listened to an expert.
Whats the difference?
You draw conclusions based on one expert interview, who offers no proof. I based my conclusion on a glaring counting error in an addition on one website, supported by official data. N=A+B is the total, not A+A+B.
I don't even see how you can compare? John Hopkins dashboard doesn't make that counting error and reports a correct number.
PS : danglars said the exact same thing I did (but better), and "that's fine" for you, but not mine? :-D I'll stop there...
Yes, I draw conclusions from the word of an expert. I can't prove what he says is true kinda the same way that I can't prove that the earth is round, but we can say with some confidence that it is true.
How can you prove that the numbers you cite are accurate? Are you going to present information that somebody else told you? I've presented information from a reputable source, I can only assume that you're going to do the same?
Again, the government's official numbers look pretty good as a source to me, and are the source of worldometers data as well. Worldometers is just missing one infobubble on it that says one subtotal is already included in the overall total, and adds both instead. There is not even any room for discussion there on sources...
You can believe what that expert says, but you cannot 100% dismiss the possibility that the virus escaped from the lab. It is a viable theory (not a conspiracy) since that lab works on coronaviruses. One way to conclusively prove it wrong would be for example to provide the list of viruses worked on in that lab, that shows they were not working on that specific one...
It's not something we can prove, and there is little to gain from discussing whether it was released by a lab or (much more likely) transmitted from an animal. If it's proven then we can address it at that point.
I believe that their current active cases is reasonable(or at least it isn't grossly underreported, at least in comparison to other countries), given the extreme measures they undertook to get it under control, as well as the general attitude towards masks and so on. From what we've seen in many other countries, if the number of infected start to exceed a certain point, you simply cannot track every case, and nothing short of an extended lockdown with heavy restrictions will get it back under control. As much as the Chinese government has faults, they also know how dangerous the virus is.
Their recovered and fatality numbers though, I would guess are missing a zero.
On April 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote: Fyi, worldometers is overcounting France's numbers. It's not that bad. The real data is available here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ They are counting double on nursing homes confirmed cases (as they are already included in the total), and they are also adding suspected cases (symptoms but no test).
The difference between confirmed cases in nursing homes (17k) and suspected ones (32k) that haven't been tested is kinda crazy and a huge fail in my opinion. You should absolutely test these people due to the risk of complications (age) or because they are carers....
Well. The real number of cases is either 108 847 for confirmed cases 140 722 for confirmed + suspected cases
But definitely not 165k as reported.
In good news, hospital numbers are finally dropping a lot, we are down to 6.2k in ICU compared to more than 7k a week ago, and regular beds are lowering as well.
On April 17 2020 05:50 Aveng3r wrote: For those who were discussing the possibility that Covid-19 escaped from a Wuhan virology lab, please skip to the 18:00 mark of this video and watch:
It did not come from a lab. It jumped from an animal.
Well, to be fair, their P4 lab studies natural Coronaviruses in animals. It could have escaped from there without it being a bioweapon, so it makes sense to investigate the possibility. It is not fair to draw conclusions though.
I believe there is a consensus that it is not manmade nor tinkered with. But these lab study live viruses.
Its perfectly fair to draw conclusions. In your post you conclude that Worldometers is overreporting French casualties, in my post I conclude that Covid-19 did not come from a weapons lab because I've listened to an expert.
Whats the difference?
You draw conclusions based on one expert interview, who offers no proof. I based my conclusion on a glaring counting error in an addition on one website, supported by official data. N=A+B is the total, not A+A+B.
I don't even see how you can compare? John Hopkins dashboard doesn't make that counting error and reports a correct number.
PS : danglars said the exact same thing I did (but better), and "that's fine" for you, but not mine? :-D I'll stop there...
Yes, I draw conclusions from the word of an expert. I can't prove what he says is true kinda the same way that I can't prove that the earth is round, but we can say with some confidence that it is true.
How can you prove that the numbers you cite are accurate? Are you going to present information that somebody else told you? I've presented information from a reputable source, I can only assume that you're going to do the same?
Again, the government's official numbers look pretty good as a source to me, and are the source of worldometers data as well. Worldometers is just missing one infobubble on it that says one subtotal is already included in the overall total, and adds both instead. There is not even any room for discussion there on sources...
You can believe what that expert says, but you cannot 100% dismiss the possibility that the virus escaped from the lab. It is a viable theory (not a conspiracy) since that lab works on coronaviruses. One way to conclusively prove it wrong would be for example to provide the list of viruses worked on in that lab, that shows they were not working on that specific one...
Guys both data and expert opinion can be wrong, nothing is ever 100% accurate. However at the same time that doesn't mean it can't be trusted (even though conspiracy theorists cling onto that argument like a toddler to its favourite toy). Expert opinions rely on data as well as observation, but like in any scientific field, only further research, analysis and peer-reviews will eventually provide the scientific evidence needed. As for now, nobody really knows and as any expert in the medical field will tell you it's mostly observation and guess work right now, because at this point all of this is an ongoing process and takes time. So you're both right and wrong, until the scientific evidence catches up.
I believe that their current active cases is reasonable(or at least it isn't grossly underreported, at least in comparison to other countries), given the extreme measures they undertook to get it under control, as well as the general attitude towards masks and so on. From what we've seen in many other countries, if the number of infected start to exceed a certain point, you simply cannot track every case, and nothing short of an extended lockdown with heavy restrictions will get it back under control. As much as the Chinese government has faults, they also know how dangerous the virus is.
Their recovered and fatality numbers though, I would guess are missing a zero.
A friend in China just yesterday posted a picture showing that on the Wuhan to Qianjiang train despite both cities being in full lockdown they were only two wearing masks. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if China's initial data were correct and the recent rise is due to the population starting be too lax causing a second wave earlier than expected.
Couldn't some severely weakened coronavirus be injected into people to gain herd immunity? I think that's how vaccines work if I'm not mistaken, but why do they need 12-18 months for that? Is it that difficult? What does the process involve?
On April 18 2020 01:02 SC-Shield wrote: Couldn't some severely weakened coronavirus be injected into people to gain herd immunity? I think that's how vaccines work if I'm not mistaken, but why do they need 12-18 months for that? Is it that difficult? What does the process involve?
Well you need to make sure the weakened virus is actually weakened, so that vulnerable people have no symptoms from it, and that they actually develop antibodies that are efficient against the full-scale virus. You also need to make sure it doesn't have drastic adverse effects.
I'd guess the vaccine development phase takes 3/4monthes (you also need to study this "new" virus first), then a few monthes for tests on animals, then 6 monthes for conclusive testing on humans, find out how long live humans take to create the antibodies, how long they stay (some antibodies just disappear after a while, and the body may or may not re-manufacture them at the next infection), and you need to either naturally expose these vaccinated humans to the world and hope they catch the virus after a while, or inoculate them (good luck finding candidates). And survey side- and undesirable effects.
That is why the shortest timeframe is usually a year if you want conclusive testing. If any step fails and you have to start again, add delay (there are several laboratories developing concurrent vaccines of course).
Rushed vaccines have had some pretty horrific side effects. I think there was one in the 70s that led to there being some pretty extreme testing as the standard.
On April 18 2020 01:02 SC-Shield wrote: Couldn't some severely weakened coronavirus be injected into people to gain herd immunity? I think that's how vaccines work if I'm not mistaken, but why do they need 12-18 months for that? Is it that difficult? What does the process involve?
Vaccines have three mechanisms:
1) Inactivated version of the virus
2) Live attenuated version of the virus - essentially a weakened version, as you suggested. Not used in immunosuppressed patients because even these may have drastic effects in them.
3) Inactivated toxin - similar to 1, except the toxin product of the virus instead
All three result in the same answer, the body produces antibodies and knows how to fight it off the next time it comes into contact with the real thing.
I'm no biochemist so I have little knowledge of the development process, but essentially it's a delicate balance of enough to trick the body but safe not to cause harm to people.
On April 18 2020 01:02 SC-Shield wrote: Couldn't some severely weakened coronavirus be injected into people to gain herd immunity? I think that's how vaccines work if I'm not mistaken, but why do they need 12-18 months for that? Is it that difficult? What does the process involve?
As part of the response to this pandemic, the agency is taking the lead on a national effort to facilitate the development of, and access to, two investigational therapies derived from human blood. These are called convalescent plasma and hyperimmune globulin and are antibody-rich blood products made from blood donated by people who have recovered from the virus. The products can be administered to individuals diagnosed with COVID-19. There are some limited data to suggest that convalescent plasma and hyperimmune globulin may have benefit in the COVID-19 illness.
Weren't two strains of coronavirus reported before? I'm currently reading about 1918 pandemic, and there's an interesting thing:
This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.[103] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).[104]
It's pretty cool/stark representation of where we are at. In BC, at a population level, we interact with about 30% the number of people we would under normal circumstances. If we went and returned to normal, within three weeks, we would be overwhelmed. Increasing our human contact slightly, can keep the critical care patients under control, but it has to be mild increases.
Hard to quantify at an individual level what +10% contact means, but for me, that would be slightly less home cooking, possibly going into the office if it's good weather and I can bike instead of transit, etc.
Since you're in a decent sized city, how is your area doing? Last I read you said you weren't swamped with cases but prepared for the oncoming flux. Is there a steady flow of Covid patients or very few?
EPT
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