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Coronavirus and You - Page 123

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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.

It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.

Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.

This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.

Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria818 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 18:43:02
April 15 2020 18:42 GMT
#2441
Guys I don't understand why Germany will ease lockdown after 3 May. I understand that not everything will be reopened, but if hairdressers are open, aren't people still close to each other? I've not seen any major breakthrough yet, so it looks like this is done in a hurry, maybe because of economy?

Link: http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200415-germany-to-prolong-coronavirus-lockdown-until-3-may-some-easing-in-sight-covid-19-merkel
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21703 Posts
April 15 2020 18:48 GMT
#2442
On April 16 2020 03:42 SC-Shield wrote:
Guys I don't understand why Germany will ease lockdown after 3 May. I understand that not everything will be reopened, but if hairdressers are open, aren't people still close to each other? I've not seen any major breakthrough yet, so it looks like this is done in a hurry, maybe because of economy?

Link: http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200415-germany-to-prolong-coronavirus-lockdown-until-3-may-some-easing-in-sight-covid-19-merkel
Healthcare in Germany seems to be coping well and has a lot of room, so measures can be eased up without it being overloaded.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 15 2020 18:49 GMT
#2443
Being locked up for over a year is a non-starter. Several months is absolutely the most that could be reasonably done.

Having bought time, I sure hope that governments are ready to roll out what is needed for the next wave. Lots of extra hospital space, an ample supply of masks, respirators, and sanitation supplies, and an industry that can staff a long-term surge in respiratory infections. Partial quarantine works if the total case load is fairly small, but 100k+ active cases in the country will just lead to an exponential growth into disaster.

I think big crowds are going to be a no-no for a long time.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23250 Posts
April 15 2020 18:58 GMT
#2444
On April 16 2020 03:49 LegalLord wrote:
Being locked up for over a year is a non-starter. Several months is absolutely the most that could be reasonably done.

Having bought time, I sure hope that governments are ready to roll out what is needed for the next wave. Lots of extra hospital space, an ample supply of masks, respirators, and sanitation supplies, and an industry that can staff a long-term surge in respiratory infections. Partial quarantine works if the total case load is fairly small, but 100k+ active cases in the country will just lead to an exponential growth into disaster.

I think big crowds are going to be a no-no for a long time.


South Korea shows what the US could look like if we had adequate supplies and people to do contract tracing. The problem is that we're too far behind here. We don't even have a plan for how congress can vote (like literally how to hold a vote) for the next round of supplies and economic aid.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21703 Posts
April 15 2020 19:02 GMT
#2445
On April 16 2020 03:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 03:49 LegalLord wrote:
Being locked up for over a year is a non-starter. Several months is absolutely the most that could be reasonably done.

Having bought time, I sure hope that governments are ready to roll out what is needed for the next wave. Lots of extra hospital space, an ample supply of masks, respirators, and sanitation supplies, and an industry that can staff a long-term surge in respiratory infections. Partial quarantine works if the total case load is fairly small, but 100k+ active cases in the country will just lead to an exponential growth into disaster.

I think big crowds are going to be a no-no for a long time.


South Korea shows what the US could look like if we had adequate supplies and people to do contract tracing. The problem is that we're too far behind here. We don't even have a plan for how congress can vote (like literally how to hold a vote) for the next round of supplies and economic aid.
There is a massive mentality difference between SK and the US. It takes a lot more then just materials and people to emulate SK.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23250 Posts
April 15 2020 19:07 GMT
#2446
On April 16 2020 04:02 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 03:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 16 2020 03:49 LegalLord wrote:
Being locked up for over a year is a non-starter. Several months is absolutely the most that could be reasonably done.

Having bought time, I sure hope that governments are ready to roll out what is needed for the next wave. Lots of extra hospital space, an ample supply of masks, respirators, and sanitation supplies, and an industry that can staff a long-term surge in respiratory infections. Partial quarantine works if the total case load is fairly small, but 100k+ active cases in the country will just lead to an exponential growth into disaster.

I think big crowds are going to be a no-no for a long time.


South Korea shows what the US could look like if we had adequate supplies and people to do contract tracing. The problem is that we're too far behind here. We don't even have a plan for how congress can vote (like literally how to hold a vote) for the next round of supplies and economic aid.
There is a massive mentality difference between SK and the US. It takes a lot more then just materials and people to emulate SK.


Yeah, culture matters too (see the mask issue where wearing masks to protect others just didn't even compute here).
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 19:39:31
April 15 2020 19:35 GMT
#2447
On April 16 2020 04:07 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 04:02 Gorsameth wrote:
On April 16 2020 03:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 16 2020 03:49 LegalLord wrote:
Being locked up for over a year is a non-starter. Several months is absolutely the most that could be reasonably done.

Having bought time, I sure hope that governments are ready to roll out what is needed for the next wave. Lots of extra hospital space, an ample supply of masks, respirators, and sanitation supplies, and an industry that can staff a long-term surge in respiratory infections. Partial quarantine works if the total case load is fairly small, but 100k+ active cases in the country will just lead to an exponential growth into disaster.

I think big crowds are going to be a no-no for a long time.


South Korea shows what the US could look like if we had adequate supplies and people to do contract tracing. The problem is that we're too far behind here. We don't even have a plan for how congress can vote (like literally how to hold a vote) for the next round of supplies and economic aid.
There is a massive mentality difference between SK and the US. It takes a lot more then just materials and people to emulate SK.


Yeah, culture matters too (see the mask issue where wearing masks to protect others just didn't even compute here).


Well, it helps to have a culture that allows people to quietly ignore to that wearing masks increases the infection risk for non-infected people (particularly the elderly). It's not clear to me at all that with the current low levels of ambient infection in SK masks are doing more good than harm.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23250 Posts
April 15 2020 19:46 GMT
#2448
On April 16 2020 04:35 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 04:07 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 16 2020 04:02 Gorsameth wrote:
On April 16 2020 03:58 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 16 2020 03:49 LegalLord wrote:
Being locked up for over a year is a non-starter. Several months is absolutely the most that could be reasonably done.

Having bought time, I sure hope that governments are ready to roll out what is needed for the next wave. Lots of extra hospital space, an ample supply of masks, respirators, and sanitation supplies, and an industry that can staff a long-term surge in respiratory infections. Partial quarantine works if the total case load is fairly small, but 100k+ active cases in the country will just lead to an exponential growth into disaster.

I think big crowds are going to be a no-no for a long time.


South Korea shows what the US could look like if we had adequate supplies and people to do contract tracing. The problem is that we're too far behind here. We don't even have a plan for how congress can vote (like literally how to hold a vote) for the next round of supplies and economic aid.
There is a massive mentality difference between SK and the US. It takes a lot more then just materials and people to emulate SK.


Yeah, culture matters too (see the mask issue where wearing masks to protect others just didn't even compute here).


Well, it helps to have a culture that allows people to quietly ignore to that wearing masks increases the infection risk for non-infected people (particularly the elderly). It's not clear to me at all that with the current low levels of ambient infection in SK masks are doing more good than harm.


You have data to support that wearing masks increases infection rates?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Firebolt145
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Lalalaland34491 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 19:58:21
April 15 2020 19:56 GMT
#2449
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

https://www.who.int/publications-detail/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak

Overall WHO advises only symptomatic people should use it in the community. However, specific scenarios differ, and explanation behind their guidance is summarised below:

Advice to decision makers on the use of masks for healthy
people in community settings


As described above, the wide use of masks by healthy
people in the community setting is not supported by current
evidence and carries uncertainties and critical risks. WHO
offers the following advice to decision makers so they apply
a risk-based approach.

Decisions makers should consider the following:

1. Purpose of mask use: the rationale and reason for mask
use should be clear– whether it is to be used for source
control (used by infected persons) or prevention of
COVID-19 (used by healthy persons)

2. Risk of exposure to the COVID-19 virus in the local
context:
­ The population: current epidemiology about how
widely the virus is circulating (e.g., clusters of
cases versus community transmission), as well as
local surveillance and testing capacity (e.g., contact
tracing and follow up, ability to carry out testing).
­ The individual: working in close contact with
public (e.g., community health worker, cashier)

3. Vulnerability of the person/population to develop
severe disease or be at higher risk of death, e.g. people
with comorbidities, such as cardiovascular disease or
diabetes mellitus, and older people

4. Setting in which the population lives in terms of
population density, the ability to carry out physical
distancing (e.g. on a crowded bus), and risk of rapid
spread (e.g. closed settings, slums, camps/camp-like
settings).

5. Feasibility: availability and costs of the mask, and
tolerability by individuals

6. Type of mask: medical mask versus nonmedical mask
(see below)

In addition to these factors, potential advantages of the use
of mask by healthy people in the community setting include
reducing potential exposure risk from infected person during
the “pre-symptomatic” period and stigmatization of
individuals wearing mask for source control.

However, the following potential risks should be carefully
taken into account in any decision-making process:

• self-contamination that can occur by touching and
reusing contaminated mask
• depending on type of mask used, potential breathing
difficulties
• false sense of security, leading to potentially less
adherence to other preventive measures such as physical
distancing and hand hygiene
• diversion of mask supplies and consequent shortage of
mask for health care workers
• diversion of resources from effective public health
measures, such as hand hygiene

Whatever approach is taken, it is important to develop a
strong communication strategy to explain to the population
the circumstances, criteria, and reasons for decisions. The
population should receive clear instructions on what masks
to wear, when and how (see mask management section), and
on the importance of continuing to strictly follow all other
IPC measures (e.g., hand hygiene, physical distancing, and
others).
Moderator
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23250 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 20:13:29
April 15 2020 20:11 GMT
#2450
I think the key there are the risks:

+ Show Spoiler +
• self-contamination that can occur by touching and
reusing contaminated mask

• depending on type of mask used, potential breathing
difficulties

• false sense of security, leading to potentially less
adherence to other preventive measures such as physical
distancing and hand hygiene

• diversion of mask supplies and consequent shortage of
mask for health care workers

• diversion of resources from effective public health
measures, such as hand hygiene


Which are also widely cultural/educational. They ring to me as common sense that probably needs a dedicated educational effort in the US. What WHO says as I've read it is that we don't have the data one way or the other
is not supported by current evidence and carries uncertainties and critical risks.

but it seems common sense imo given the asymptomatic community spreading that responsible mask use is desirable, but that supply shortages make effective masks being used to limit community spread as not their highest and best use. As well as there being risks (of unknown impact) driven by improper understanding of the role and proper usage of various masks.
Here's the CDC guidance
+ Show Spoiler +
We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. This means that the virus can spread between people interacting in close proximity—for example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing—even if those people are not exhibiting symptoms. In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.

It is critical to emphasize that maintaining 6-feet social distancing remains important to slowing the spread of the virus. CDC is additionally advising the use of simple cloth face coverings to slow the spread of the virus and help people who may have the virus and do not know it from transmitting it to others. Cloth face coverings fashioned from household items or made at home from common materials at low cost can be used as an additional, voluntary public health measure.

The cloth face coverings recommended are not surgical masks or N-95 respirators. Those are critical supplies that must continue to be reserved for healthcare workers and other medical first responders, as recommended by current CDC guidance.


www.cdc.gov
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
GoTuNk!
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Chile4591 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 20:32:33
April 15 2020 20:31 GMT
#2451
On April 16 2020 01:04 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2020 23:36 Nevuk wrote:
They may be referring to marking anyone who has COVID-19 and dying of any cause as being a death of COVID, which is a very common practice globally. Yes, SOME of them may have died anyways, but it's likely not a very high number (and offset by those who have died with it that are unknown)

(There's a SA country that's doing the opposite, marking people as covid free on death, finding a source now)
edit:
It's Chile. They're counting deaths as recoveries.

https://www.newsweek.com/chile-counts-those-who-died-coronavirus-recovered-because-theyre-no-longer-contagious-health-1497775



Counting deaths as recoveries is standard practice in SIR models and not unique to Chile or coronavirus. This is getting a lot of media space for absolutely no reason.


I'm extremely satisfied with my country's handling of this, something which I basically never say.
Misuse of words is meaningless in the grand scheme of things aside from political petiness (should be non-active cases instead of "recovered"?)
We out test all other latin american countries and have 8k confirmed cases with less than a hundred dead. We have not used full quarantines yet, but rather a mix of social distancing, people wearing masks and selective full lockdowns on provinces. Ventilators and ICU beds are still on excess availability, are relocated continuously by need pre emptively and a system has been built to move them quickly with military help in case it is required

The economy has taken a hit like everywhere else but has not been wrecked.
The first aid package involved allowing use of our unemployment insurance with "freezing" of work contracts for 1-2-3 months rather than firing employees + small cash gifts to 20% most vulnerable people (we do not have the resources of the US)
The 2nd aid package is a government insured loan at 0 real interest rate for small business and 6 month deferred payments, so many people can save their business on hard hit industries.
A 3rd aid package is on the works atm for people that free lance.
All in my opinion, sensible measures.

On the contrary Argentina doesn't test people and at this point I think they are flat out lying about their dead too, while they totally wrecked what was left of their economy and will be actually raising taxes; their currency keeps losing value and they are edging dangerously into hiper inflation. Ecuador has dead people on the streets of the capital, and Peru implemented a full lockdown and still has more dead and sick people than Chile.
This disease will be wrecking latin america like it did in Spain by may, but countries like Chile and Peru will somewhat endure and Argentina will be a total disaster.



Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 20:37:50
April 15 2020 20:36 GMT
#2452
On April 16 2020 03:42 SC-Shield wrote:
Guys I don't understand why Germany will ease lockdown after 3 May. I understand that not everything will be reopened, but if hairdressers are open, aren't people still close to each other? I've not seen any major breakthrough yet, so it looks like this is done in a hurry, maybe because of economy?

Link: http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200415-germany-to-prolong-coronavirus-lockdown-until-3-may-some-easing-in-sight-covid-19-merkel

There will be PPE involved for the hairdressers as well as other measures that I have not yet seen specified. I suspect them to revolve around 2m distance as well as regular disinfection and proper ventilation though.

Thats what our political strategy is according to the public broadcast news today.
passive quaranstream fan
Firebolt145
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Lalalaland34491 Posts
April 15 2020 20:51 GMT
#2453
I know I desperately need a haircut.
Moderator
GoTuNk!
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Chile4591 Posts
April 15 2020 20:58 GMT
#2454
On April 16 2020 05:51 Firebolt145 wrote:
I know I desperately need a haircut.


I've just bought a hair cut machine. After I've used it 6 times it should pay itself.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria818 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 21:50:07
April 15 2020 21:45 GMT
#2455
On April 16 2020 05:51 Firebolt145 wrote:
I know I desperately need a haircut.


I got one a few days ago, even though it was restricted initially. It was only one customer at a time. It's kind of shitty here that strict measures are announced, but in reality it's no so strict but still things are more or less stable here by any European standards (far from Asia though).

Either way, masks were said to be mandatory, then a day later that order was withdrawn. Guess what, it was ordered again on 12 April that masks will be mandatory from 13 April until like 26 April. I think they did it because peak is expected during Easter (ours is a bit later this year than Catholic and Protestant ones).

Fines are harsh though, quite a few people were fined. Going to park is restricted, so the fine is 2500 euros, which is a lot because it's more than twice the average salary. Also, if a person is quarantined and it's confirmed they have coronavirus, the fine is like this or higher, can't remember exactly. Are there fines in your countries? I guess yes because there would be a lot of violations otherwise.
TT1
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
Canada10009 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 21:57:43
April 15 2020 21:57 GMT
#2456
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drivers-swarm-michigan-capital-to-protest-coronavirus-lockdown-measures

whats going on in michigan? anyone live there?
ab = tl(i) + tl(pc), the grand answer to every tl.net debate
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-15 22:42:44
April 15 2020 22:34 GMT
#2457
On April 16 2020 05:51 Firebolt145 wrote:
I know I desperately need a haircut.

Some of the reports make me think some US states will have a black market for nonessential services. Newsom dropped hints that the general lockdown will continue into June, and Garcetti said LA sports may not return until 2021. I'll be perusing the black market for haircuts sometime mid to late June, should Newsom or my county health department extend the lockdown.

On April 16 2020 06:57 TT1 wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drivers-swarm-michigan-capital-to-protest-coronavirus-lockdown-measures

whats going on in michigan? anyone live there?

From national news stories, she was being dumb with what was called essential. She made stores rope off their home gardening sections, refuse to sell baby carseats, paint, hardware. But liquor and weed and lottery tickets stayed.



She had since made revisions after the widespread anger, and claimed that her executive order had been poorly interpreted. Prohibiting stores like Walmart from selling items in an effort to keep people only going out on shopping trips for stuff like food is a bad idea generally.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
April 16 2020 01:00 GMT
#2458
On April 16 2020 06:57 TT1 wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drivers-swarm-michigan-capital-to-protest-coronavirus-lockdown-measures

whats going on in michigan? anyone live there?


A lot of people felt it was an overstep regarding the non-essential shopping and other activities (like jet-skis, motor boats, etc.). So a bunch of folks went to protest at the capital.

Basically in reaction to a potentially excessive govt. overstep, a bunch of idiots gathered together for a definitely stupid protest. Not saying that the govt. was right, but the protesters were definitely wrong - now is not the time to congregate and worsen a public health crisis
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
ThatCleanBurn
Profile Joined March 2020
8 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-16 02:15:28
April 16 2020 02:07 GMT
#2459
On April 16 2020 10:00 Bagration wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2020 06:57 TT1 wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/drivers-swarm-michigan-capital-to-protest-coronavirus-lockdown-measures

whats going on in michigan? anyone live there?


A lot of people felt it was an overstep regarding the non-essential shopping and other activities (like jet-skis, motor boats, etc.). So a bunch of folks went to protest at the capital.

Basically in reaction to a potentially excessive govt. overstep, a bunch of idiots gathered together for a definitely stupid protest. Not saying that the govt. was right, but the protesters were definitely wrong - now is not the time to congregate and worsen a public health crisis


It’s organised by a DeVos funded group. Their argument in a Fox affiliate station interview is that the government should trust them to not get sick, which evidently hasn’t worked in the United States with the degree of community spread and isn’t going to work with a lot of these fools not social distancing themselves.

The lockdown is happening because Michigan has bad numbers and they’re acting proactively. I agree the rules are confusing as all hell. The order mandates that stores over 50,000 square feet must close their nurseries, paint sections and interior furnishing sections but it’s not clear smaller stores are considered essential or not. I am sure if you want seeds, you can get it delivered or find a smaller store instead of your huge big box chain store. Some people in Michigan have attested to this and I have no reason to doubt them.

I don’t think a lot of the people are protesting in good faith, I didn’t see these people go out when Flint had literally no drinking water or when jobs were being sent overseas. This is just people acting selfishly and treating this as a political game.

The big reason she’s being targeted is because she’s got a decent chance of being Biden’s VP and her state being part of the rust belt. It’s a joke to believe the people of Michigan apparently turned into DIY enthusiasts and hobby gardeners overnight like the people in that Italian mayor’s city turned into long distance runners overnight. All of a sudden growing your own food is considered essential? Give me a break.

User was banned for this post.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
April 16 2020 03:28 GMT
#2460
Are the gun shops closed? That's the real question.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
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