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On April 15 2020 07:10 Mohdoo wrote:If society just adapts to social distancing, it could be great. If restaurants etc stay open and just reduce staff, impose basic income, tax the rich, the world could move where it needs to anyway. Automation was about to kill these jobs anyway, this is at least a nice way to do it over time.
It goes beyond that tho, it would have an impact on so many things. Live sports/travel and tourism (even down to airplane seats)/restaurants etc.
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Omg you mean I’ll have more than two inches of space from other passengers in 6+ hour flights?!
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On April 15 2020 07:37 TT1 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2020 07:10 Mohdoo wrote:If society just adapts to social distancing, it could be great. If restaurants etc stay open and just reduce staff, impose basic income, tax the rich, the world could move where it needs to anyway. Automation was about to kill these jobs anyway, this is at least a nice way to do it over time. It goes beyond that tho, it would have an impact on so many things. Live sports/travel and tourism (even down to airplane seats)/restaurants etc.
My hopes are the following:
-Effective treatment and mass immunity makes the 'rona threat more in line with other microbes we have not shut down our lifestyles and entire industries for.
-A vaccine.
-That the virus indeed spreads less during the summer, and the first wave comes under control to the point where more people can gather again sooner than expected.
As dangerous as the virus is to the elderly, the trade offs need to be considered continuously, especially if there is no danger of hospital overload in sight. Locking ourselves into our homes living our lives online should not be considered a viable option, and will go aginst every previous mental and physical health recommendation. There are already reports of increased home violence and alcohol abuse. The lifestyle illnesses will appear later, but will be a very serious issue as well.
Vacations abroad, travel, festivals, concerts, religious and political gatherings, congresses, restaurants, sports events, popular sports events... It is really so much to give up there will be major pressure to keep it!
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On April 15 2020 08:40 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2020 07:37 TT1 wrote:On April 15 2020 07:10 Mohdoo wrote:If society just adapts to social distancing, it could be great. If restaurants etc stay open and just reduce staff, impose basic income, tax the rich, the world could move where it needs to anyway. Automation was about to kill these jobs anyway, this is at least a nice way to do it over time. It goes beyond that tho, it would have an impact on so many things. Live sports/travel and tourism (even down to airplane seats)/restaurants etc. My hopes are the following: -Effective treatment and mass immunity makes the 'rona threat more in line with other microbes we have not shut down our lifestyles and entire industries for. -A vaccine. -That the virus indeed spreads less during the summer, and the first wave comes under control to the point where more people can gather again sooner than expected. As dangerous as the virus is to the elderly, the trade offs need to be considered continuously, especially if there is no danger of hospital overload in sight. Locking ourselves into our homes living our lives online should not be considered a viable option, and will go aginst every previous mental and physical health recommendation. There are already reports of increased home violence and alcohol abuse. The lifestyle illnesses will appear later, but will be a very serious issue as well. Vacations abroad, travel, festivals, concerts, religious and political gatherings, congresses, restaurants, sports events, popular sports events... It is really so much to give up there will be major pressure to keep it!
Warm weather will unlikely make much difference. Head of coronavirus task force here has said that warm and humid weather doesn't influence the virus very much. It's yet to be seen if warm and dry weather is significant, we don't know yet. Here's a link to that (Google Translate, I can't find English source): https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=bg&tl=en&u=https://www.investor.bg/ikonomika-i-politika/332/a/gen-mutafchiiski-shte-predloji-po-strogi-merki-predi-praznicite-302284/
He is general and a doctor, so don't be fooled by his uniform. He's pretty smart actually. 
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Re the testing talk above: the Russian official data reports the number of tests made not people tested, and most people are tested several times; when the epidemic just started two tests were absolutely required even if the first one came in positive. I have no idea how the other countries report testing though.
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On April 15 2020 18:18 Gina wrote:
Re the testing talk above: the Russian official data reports the number of tests made not people tested, and most people are tested several times; when the epidemic just started two tests were absolutely required even if the first one came in positive. I have no idea how the other countries report testing though.
In Portugal the health authorities often brag about total number of tests done, but we can check how many people were tested because they report the total confirmed cases and the total number of suspected cases not confirmed (basically suspected cases that came out negative).
Portugal seems to have come down from a peak but we're stable at 500-600 cases per day. It feels to me that Spain and Italy might be declining due to the fact that those most likely to be infected have already been infected, whereas Portugal, because we started containing earlier, we neither bring the R down below 1 nor do we have enough people infected to start taking away some oxigen from the virus.
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I have read in the news, that a lot of the way that some countries test this thing is fake anyway. In Italy, I read, if anyone dies, they say it is because of the virus. Whereas the virus may have just exacerbated pre-existing conditions? I am suffering right now because after my coma, my mother is staying longer than she should. She needs to go away.
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On April 15 2020 22:03 MoltkeWarding wrote:
I have read in the news, that a lot of the way that some countries test this thing is fake anyway. In Italy, I read, if anyone dies, they say it is because of the virus. Whereas the virus may have just exacerbated pre-existing conditions? I am suffering right now because after my coma, my mother is staying longer than she should. She needs to go away.
Italy is actually massively underreporting deaths... (first google hit on the topic, feel free to read it from other sources, reports are certainly not rare...)
But yes, there may have also been 5 people who would have died anyway, and are now credited a Corona death. And those get mentioned in every of those great "Just a flu" articles.
And yes, most countries use the "Corona positive + death -> Corona Death" counting. Which even in countries not completely screwed like Italy is still underreporting as the number of "Corona positive + death + would have died anyway" is quite insignificant and easily compensated by "untested + death + caused by Corona" which are not counted anywhere. And unless people are suitable for transplantations, post mortem tests are basically something nobody can spare right now.
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On April 15 2020 18:18 Gina wrote:
Re the testing talk above: the Russian official data reports the number of tests made not people tested, and most people are tested several times; when the epidemic just started two tests were absolutely required even if the first one came in positive. I have no idea how the other countries report testing though.
In at least my part of the world (US) there also seems to be a tendency to test people more than once if tests are performed at all, especially if trying to get a negative test result after earlier testing positive. Seems like trouble when I have no idea how I'd even go about getting tested in the first place, let alone somehow getting more than one test. Hopefully one of these days there will actually be enough tests to go around to make it ubiquitous to get one.
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Lalalaland34500 Posts
On April 15 2020 22:03 MoltkeWarding wrote:
I have read in the news, that a lot of the way that some countries test this thing is fake anyway. In Italy, I read, if anyone dies, they say it is because of the virus. Whereas the virus may have just exacerbated pre-existing conditions? I am suffering right now because after my coma, my mother is staying longer than she should. She needs to go away.
Could you share the source behind fake tests or the Italy claim?
It's true that doctors must not simply default to covid-19 as cause of death. Often times it's as you say, that covid-19 has exacerbated other problems to the point of death, and covid-19 is just a catalyst. Still important to note on the death certification though.
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over here, their deaths count as covid deaths but they also list the comorbidities: diabetes, hypertension, obesity etc.
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United States43477 Posts
It's all somewhat moot because when this is all over some statisticians will work out roughly how many people would have died had there been no virus based on statistical models, compare that to actual deaths, and back into the Coronavirus impact.
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If there's a 'nefarious' tendency to report in a certain way, it's probably to overreport. These lockdowns violate constitutional laws so a justification needs to be maintained. They also are not a long-term solution, since it's doubtful the virus can be eradicated worldwide and travel should resume at some point.
Hospitals also are not safe places for sick people with the amount of resistant infectious diseases flying about and concentration of immunocompromised patients. There's a lot of bugs you can die from there. An attached respirator becomes a breeding ground without frequent replacement, catheters too etc.
There aren't enough pathologists around to investigate every actual cause of death.
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Counting deaths as recoveries is standard practice in SIR models and not unique to Chile or coronavirus. This is getting a lot of media space for absolutely no reason.
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On April 15 2020 23:54 Vivax wrote:
These lockdowns violate constitutional laws so a justification needs to be maintained. They also are not a long-term solution, since it's doubtful the virus can be eradicated worldwide and travel should resume at some point.
The purpose of the lockdowns is not to eradicate the virus, but to flatten the curve of infections, so hospitals don't get flodded with corona patients.
Also I'm not an expert, but isn't Austria a federal republic? If so, I'm pretty sure, there's a part in the austrian constitution, which states: It's the government's duty to protect its citicenzs..etc, since that's usually one basic part a federal republic constitutes via the 3 legal branches (legislative, executive and judicial) iirc.
Edit:
So it's debatable whether it's actually violating constitutional rights, or not.
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On April 16 2020 01:11 thePunGun wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2020 23:54 Vivax wrote:
These lockdowns violate constitutional laws so a justification needs to be maintained. They also are not a long-term solution, since it's doubtful the virus can be eradicated worldwide and travel should resume at some point. The purpose of the lockdowns is not to eradicate the virus, but to flatten the curve of infections, so hospitals don't get flodded with corona patients. Also I'm not an expert, but isn't Austria a federal republic? If so, I'm pretty sure, there's a part in the austrian constitution, which states: It's the government's duty to protect its citicenzs..etc, since that's usually one basic part a federal republic constitutes via the 3 legal branches (legislative, executive and judicial) iirc.
You can't gather, stay outside to name a few rights. For enterpreneurs, it's like having their property seized.
WHO gave the order to eradicate the virus according to an interview with the director of the local microbiology lab, which is not just close to impossible at this point, but kinda ironic considering how complacent they were at the beginning of the pandemic. I can't blame Trump for cutting their funding. Also replying with 'bodybags' warrants an instant stepping down by the director general imo.
But sure, they should have been successful at flattening the curve. I don't know how anyone compliant with the lockdowns could get infected at this point.
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Trends in new cases in NC (my current residence) have gotten pretty damn good as the full effects of the stay-at-home order started being felt. The major bad news is that another assisted living home started getting it. Time to see how effectively public health experts can communicate to people "hey, this still needs to continue for week(s) (and after that will need to be off and on) even though we only confirmed ~100 cases yesterday after days of 1.3-fold growth in cases with some days cracking 500 new cases."
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When I listen to the medical professionals what I'm understanding is that you can't safely reopen the economy without mass testing and contract tracing (if you've stopped or significantly limited community spread).
Or that you need a vaccine/widely available reliable treatment/herd immunity.
Finally that best case scenario (in the US anyway) is that is 6 months minimum (probably closer to 12-18) away. The idea that reopening before that (even staggered with social distancing) won't just reinvigorate community spread seems blind to the science.
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On April 16 2020 03:23 GreenHorizons wrote:
When I listen to the medical professionals what I'm understanding is that you can't safely reopen the economy without mass testing and contract tracing (if you've stopped or significantly limited community spread).
Or that you need a vaccine/widely available reliable treatment/herd immunity.
Finally that best case scenario (in the US anyway) is that is 6 months minimum (probably closer to 12-18) away. The idea that reopening before that (even staggered with social distancing) won't just reinvigorate community spread seems blind to the science. Yes, reopening will lead to more cases, and if it leads to to many new cases a renewed lockdown will be needed. You'll likely have a series of waves as measures are (partially) lifted and reapplied depending on how things develop.
There might be some hope that the % already infected combined with social distancing ect can keep the spread low enough that healthcare can cope without having to re-apply measures but I haven't seen many experts weigh in on that yet.
The alternative is to remain locked up for more then a year which will drive most people insane.
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EPT
