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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On April 08 2020 06:12 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:
What's going on in France rn? 11k new cases and 1400 deaths reported today?
Again, for the 4th day in a row, partial catchup on reporting from nursing homes. You can see the details here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/
They don't report on nursing homes detected cases though on that website, only deaths somehow. But the delta are the tests ran on residents.
The "important" figures to assess the state of the outbreak are hospitalisations and ICU numbers. Only 305 more patients in the hospitals in the last 24h, and 58 additional ICU. We are nearly plateauing
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On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.
Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.
Let’s cut it in half.
But maybe I am just our local troll.
Stay home folks.
I'm with covid. I'm also ok with it having a proper name, so the third time something from bats goes to humans, there's already a technically proper name that will stay the same (COVID-19 disease, SARS-CoV-2 virus).
Then corona, 'rona, "C", various names reflecting its origin in China (and not repeated here), "the virus," etc. I'm ok with them all. It's a global pandemic, so many forms of reference are easily ascertainable.
I'm ok with a proper name existing besides names in common use. I'm not ok with pedants that hassle you over taxonomy. (And the whole corona bit is fine too. The virion looks like it's crowned with these little twigs all over. Corona of sun, coronavirus, easy)
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On April 08 2020 06:18 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.
Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.
Let’s cut it in half.
But maybe I am just our local troll.
Stay home folks. I'm with covid. I'm also ok with it having a proper name, so the third time something from bats goes to humans, there's already a technically proper name that will stay the same (COVID-19 disease, SARS-CoV-2 virus). Then corona, 'rona, "C", various names reflecting its origin in China (and not repeated here), "the virus," etc. I'm ok with them all. It's a global pandemic, so many forms of reference are easily ascertainable. I'm ok with a proper name existing besides names in common use. I'm not ok with pedants that hassle you over taxonomy. (And the whole corona bit is fine too. The virion looks like it's crowned with these little twigs all over. Corona of sun, coronavirus, easy)
I'm not okay with this !! Corona is ceasing production due to the virus :-(
But especially, as far as idiots go, these :
In one survey, 38 percent of surveyed American beer drinkers said they would not buy Corona beer “under any circumstances,” CBS News reported on March 1.
Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency.
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On April 08 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 06:00 Mohdoo wrote:On April 08 2020 05:54 Nouar wrote:On April 08 2020 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
As I currently understand, we have no idea why some 90 year olds survive corona in a week and some healthy people in their 20s die. That seems super weird. What are people's thoughts? Variance in immune systems, pre-existing conditions, different DNA that may or may not have more receivers for the virus. A varying virus load between indivicuals. What answer are you looking for ? Against all illnesses, different humans have different chances to react differently. Is that surprising ? As an ignorant chemist, virus load, different DNA receivers are things that I didn't know about previously. My ignorant understand is: "Young people get sick = no problem; Old people get sick = gg" since immune systems get worse as you age, so I am not doubting so much as asking if people have any additional understanding or can offer any additional insights. Immune systems are a topic by themselves, some young people can have immunodeficiency, or just weak immune systems, innately or after exposure to medication, transplants (that usually require immunosuppressant medication) etc. I'm a noob in these topics, I just know they exist and are hella complicated, so I'll generalise with "variance" :-p Otherwise you wouldn't have evolution for example. Some people adapt better etc etc. In this very specific case, there is a small chance that something like the BCG vaccine could have an impact, or not. So many variables.
I don't even think you need to be an expert. All you have to look at is the numbers giving general tendencies, and then there will be oddball exceptions which the media loves to blow up.
In Norway, two highschool students recently died from normal flu, but it is so rare the doctors said there was no reason to worry.
www.abcnyheter.no
This is the same for any disease.
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On April 08 2020 06:18 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.
Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.
Let’s cut it in half.
But maybe I am just our local troll.
Stay home folks. I'm with covid. I'm also ok with it having a proper name, so the third time something from bats goes to humans, there's already a technically proper name that will stay the same (COVID-19 disease, SARS-CoV-2 virus). Then corona, 'rona, "C", various names reflecting its origin in China (and not repeated here), "the virus," etc. I'm ok with them all. It's a global pandemic, so many forms of reference are easily ascertainable. I'm ok with a proper name existing besides names in common use. I'm not ok with pedants that hassle you over taxonomy. (And the whole corona bit is fine too. The virion looks like it's crowned with these little twigs all over. Corona of sun, coronavirus, easy)
My favorite is "failure of Xi Xinping". I wish that was the only thing any media outlets called it.
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On April 08 2020 06:27 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 06:18 Danglars wrote:On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.
Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.
Let’s cut it in half.
But maybe I am just our local troll.
Stay home folks. I'm with covid. I'm also ok with it having a proper name, so the third time something from bats goes to humans, there's already a technically proper name that will stay the same (COVID-19 disease, SARS-CoV-2 virus). Then corona, 'rona, "C", various names reflecting its origin in China (and not repeated here), "the virus," etc. I'm ok with them all. It's a global pandemic, so many forms of reference are easily ascertainable. I'm ok with a proper name existing besides names in common use. I'm not ok with pedants that hassle you over taxonomy. (And the whole corona bit is fine too. The virion looks like it's crowned with these little twigs all over. Corona of sun, coronavirus, easy) My favorite is "failure of Xi Xinping". I wish that was the only thing any media outlets called it.
Privately yes, in a way to remember the brave sacrifice of Dr. Li Wenliang, and ongoing disappearance of journalists that documented it on social media: Li Zehua, Fang Bin, and Chen Qiushi. But I won't go into that angle, due to current restrictions on this topic. Secondarily, names can't only be formed in a way to right wrongs and push agendas, even though I sympathize with the cause.
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On April 08 2020 01:55 LegalLord wrote:So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May. But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China. If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China. Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely.
Italy's recovery data is extremely weird if you compare it to Spain or Germany. They are probably super conservative in marking people recovered or something?
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The fact that people still don't know what to call the virus responsible for the most significant pandemic in living memory is just such a colossal failure on the ICTV's part. It seems minor in the scheme of things, but it gives me the same kind of visceral rage-hives as people refusing to drink Corona beer.
Clear messaging is everything. How they decided "SARS-COV-2" was an appropriate name for what would be the most discussed entity in the entire world, I will never understand. The confusion this sows is massive.
I call both the virus and the disease covid, while giving them a mental middle finger each time.
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On April 08 2020 06:48 Belisarius wrote:
The fact that people still don't know what to call the virus responsible for the most significant pandemic in living memory is just such a colossal failure on the ICTV's part. It seems minor in the scheme of things but it still gives me the same kind of visceral rage-hives as people refusing to drink Corona beer.
Clear messaging is everything. How they decided "SARS-COV-2" was an appropriate name for what would be the most discussed entity in the entire world, I will never understand. The confusion this sows is not a joke.
I call both the virus and the disease covid, while giving them a mental middle finger each time.
Other than scientific papers and detailed reports, absolutely everybody calls the virus Corona virus and the disease Covid-19 or just Covid. I don't know where your confusion is coming from. Right at the beginning people referred to it as the Chinese Corona virus, and it has plenty of nicknames as plenty of people advice have mentioned, but the news has been very consistent in what they call it (at least the news I read).
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On April 08 2020 06:47 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 01:55 LegalLord wrote:So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May. But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China. If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China. Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely. Italy's recovery data is extremely weird if you compare it to Spain or Germany. They are probably super conservative in marking people recovered or something?
I believe most countries only track hospital recoveries, not people sent home to self-isolate with mild symptoms, that heal by themselves (if they even got tested).
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On April 08 2020 06:47 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 01:55 LegalLord wrote:So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May. But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China. If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China. Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely. Italy's recovery data is extremely weird if you compare it to Spain or Germany. They are probably super conservative in marking people recovered or something?
Now that you mention it, I do recall at some point there was some mention (on Worldometers) that Italy was reporting somewhat strangely; might have been that they report "increase in active cases" rather than "unique number of new confirmed cases" like most everyone else. The net increase from Spain / Germany seem very much along the same lines as Italy, with the former two having more recovered and more new than Italy lately.
The general trend still holds for all three countries. The net case load is still increasing, which means we're probably a ways off from actually peaking on this one. A slow growth still means it's getting worse, it's just getting worse more slowly.
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HIV and AIDS are used as interchangeably as covid & coronavirus. The same on SARS and it's causal agent, SARS-CoV. I don't see a problem with virus & associated disease. The SARS-CoV-2 & COVID-19 smack more of "it's interesting that their full names are so long." Maybe other areas have greater concentrations of "Well Ackchually" people.
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On April 08 2020 07:13 Danglars wrote:
HIV and AIDS are used as interchangeably as covid & coronavirus. The same on SARS and it's causal agent, SARS-CoV. I don't see a problem with virus & associated disease. The SARS-CoV-2 & COVID-19 smack more of "it's interesting that their full names are so long." Maybe other areas have greater concentrations of "Well Ackchually" people.
Frankly in common lingo I prefer to just use "the coronavirus" to refer to it. We all know what it means; the naming convention matters little to me. For all the attempts to change the name, the pandemic in 2009 is still largely referred to as the "swine flu" rather than the surprisingly ambiguous H1N1 designation that was pushed at the time.
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On April 08 2020 07:09 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 06:47 Acrofales wrote:On April 08 2020 01:55 LegalLord wrote:So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May. But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China. If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China. Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely. Italy's recovery data is extremely weird if you compare it to Spain or Germany. They are probably super conservative in marking people recovered or something? Now that you mention it, I do recall at some point there was some mention (on Worldometers) that Italy was reporting somewhat strangely; might have been that they report "increase in active cases" rather than "unique number of new confirmed cases" like most everyone else. The net increase from Spain / Germany seem very much along the same lines as Italy, with the former two having more recovered and more new than Italy lately. The general trend still holds for all three countries. The net case load is still increasing, which means we're probably a ways off from actually peaking on this one. A slow growth still means it's getting worse, it's just getting worse more slowly.
It depends on where you look. Deaths per day seems to already have peaked in Spain and Italy. Other important number are the "serious cases" and hospitalisations. Where the increase in numbers happen is also relevant, as the situation is very different within countries. The hardest hit regions were generally hit first, and will recover first.
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The issue with calling it coronavirus is that coronaviruses are a family, most of them benign. It's like my city has been overrun by tigers and everyone is going "holy shit there's a mammal in my house!"
Imo we will pay for this later when random garden variety things start to cause hysteria because they are coronaviruses.
"The coronavirus" is fine, but at that point you might as well just say "the virus".
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I think its more like saying, "that guy" we all know who that guy is in this context even if we aren't using his first or last name.
People will always be confused about science, my favorite example will always be that dihydrogen monoxide scare that freaked dumb people out.
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On April 08 2020 07:26 Belisarius wrote:
The issue with calling it coronavirus is that coronaviruses are a family, most of them benign. It's like my city has been overrun by tigers and everyone is going "holy shit it's a mammal!"
Imo we will pay for this later when random garden variety things cause mass hysteria because they are coronaviruses.
"The coronavirus" is fine, but at that point you might as well just say "the virus".
That's like complaining that "flu" is not specific enough. It definitely isn't if you're writing a scientific paper about it, or a report on the specifics of this year's seasonal varieties. But in daily parlance it works perfectly well. And yes, in today's context, we could just call it the virus, but we decided that the Coronavirus added that little but extra specificity that makes it clear enough that we aren't talking about HIV or Ebola, but it's also still clear we aren't talking about just any old Coronavirus, nor even the ones that causes SARS or MERS, but in fact the one that causes COVID-19. Ando I suspect that will be clear enough nomenclature for a while into the future.
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On April 08 2020 07:26 Belisarius wrote:
The issue with calling it coronavirus is that coronaviruses are a family, most of them benign. It's like my city has been overrun by tigers and everyone is going "holy shit there's a mammal in my house!"
Imo we will pay for this later when random garden variety things start to cause hysteria because they are coronaviruses.
"The coronavirus" is fine, but at that point you might as well just say "the virus".
You also say you've got "the flu" and that is perfectly fine, even though it's different each year.
Coronavirus is ok, as long as we don't have two of them concurrently circulating.
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On April 08 2020 07:09 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2020 06:47 Acrofales wrote:On April 08 2020 01:55 LegalLord wrote:So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May. But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China. If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China. Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely. Italy's recovery data is extremely weird if you compare it to Spain or Germany. They are probably super conservative in marking people recovered or something? Now that you mention it, I do recall at some point there was some mention (on Worldometers) that Italy was reporting somewhat strangely; might have been that they report "increase in active cases" rather than "unique number of new confirmed cases" like most everyone else. The net increase from Spain / Germany seem very much along the same lines as Italy, with the former two having more recovered and more new than Italy lately. The general trend still holds for all three countries. The net case load is still increasing, which means we're probably a ways off from actually peaking on this one. A slow growth still means it's getting worse, it's just getting worse more slowly.
Heh. In the Vanguardia (one of the main Spanish papers), there were 2 reports today:
The Spanish minister of health warning everyone that we haven't yet reached the peak, and active cases is still growing. And that the lockdown will not be relaxed for at least a few more weeks.
A report on hospitals in Madrid returning to "normal" operations, and there being beds free again.
Clearly nationally we aren't over the hump yet, and hospitals here in Catalonia are still overrun. But everything points towards the top of the hump being near, and then we need some time to reduce the # active cases to a level at which shit can be managed with a lot of testing and more lenient restrictions.
So a few weeks (let's say another extension of the state of emergency) would end the full lockdown mid May. Lockdown started on March 13, so mid may would be 2 months. Pretty similar to China.
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EPT
