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Coronavirus and You - Page 110

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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.

It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.

Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.

This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.

Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
April 07 2020 15:53 GMT
#2181
I'm still of the belief that there are a couple slightly different mutations of covid out there right now and that it is part of the reason we are seeing so much variability. I'm looking very forward to a year or so from now when we fully understand this unique little virus.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 07 2020 16:55 GMT
#2182
So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May.

But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China.

If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China.

Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Firebolt145
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Lalalaland34503 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-07 17:15:35
April 07 2020 17:15 GMT
#2183
On April 08 2020 00:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm still of the belief that there are a couple slightly different mutations of covid out there right now and that it is part of the reason we are seeing so much variability. I'm looking very forward to a year or so from now when we fully understand this unique little virus.

There are already two known strains, an 'L' strain and an 'S' strain. I can't remember which way round but one is more dangerous, whereas the other is more likely to spread. The last I read, the more dangerous one was contained in China, whereas it's the other that has spread all over the world.
Moderator
Alakaslam
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States17336 Posts
April 07 2020 17:27 GMT
#2184
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.

Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.

Let’s cut it in half.

But maybe I am just our local troll.

Stay home folks.
If you think Elon Musk is a Nazi, it is because YOU radicalized him!
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
April 07 2020 17:32 GMT
#2185
On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.

Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.

Let’s cut it in half.

But maybe I am just our local troll.

Stay home folks.


I see no reason for anyone to refer to this as anything other than "covid". We will never be referring to anything other than covid19
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1935 Posts
April 07 2020 17:34 GMT
#2186
On April 08 2020 01:55 LegalLord wrote:
So over the last couple of days, I've been looking at the Worldometers page on the virus to try to get a sense of when we're going to start to lift the lockdown measures. If China is an indication, where lockdowns started in late January and are starting to end now, a little over two months later, we're in this until about early-to-mid May.

But... I don't really think China is a great indicator. When comparing China's data to Italy, Spain, or any other of the countries with a large exponential rise in case loads, it just doesn't look the same. China has a lockdown, a week of rapid growth, a change in methodology causing a sharp rise in cases, then it just stops. Whereas in Italy, after four weeks it looks like the trend is not so favorable. It seems to have stopped growing exponentially pretty much right when they implemented the lockdown, but even as it slows it looks like every day there's a large increase in cases. Whether this is due to uncharacteristically effective lockdown measures in China or something else, I expect the world to be more like Italy than like China.

If the lockdown stops, it probably goes right back to exponential growth from whatever number of cases there already are, unless the case load is so low as to be able to isolate all known infected individuals (several thousand at most). So you not only have to wait for the curve to flatten, but also for most of the infected to recover. The frightening thing is that it doesn't look like Italy is even quite at the point where more people recover than get sick, four weeks after locking things down. It's getting there, but much slower than China.

Probably at least another month for Italy's case load to really start to thin out, and it's ahead of everyone else in how far this has played out. The big "hopeful" narrative right now seems to be that this will be over by the end of April; watching where Italy is going that just doesn't sound likely.


I believe this means lockdown is not the only way of fighting the virus and that other mesures might be even more important. Personally I believe early mass testing is the key. Taiwan, which is probably the best at dealing with Corona, did around 100 tests per infected person. The same number for Spain is currently 2,5.
Buff the siegetank
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18857 Posts
April 07 2020 17:34 GMT
#2187
Among friends, family and coworkers, I use the term ‘rona and it seems to do the trick just fine.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
aseq
Profile Joined January 2003
Netherlands3997 Posts
April 07 2020 17:38 GMT
#2188
It's usually just called 'corona' over here, or jokingly amongst friends: 'the C'.
tofucake
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Hyrule19208 Posts
April 07 2020 18:05 GMT
#2189
On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.

Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.

Let’s cut it in half.

But maybe I am just our local troll.

Stay home folks.

Naming is not about convenience of speech
Liquipediaasante sana squash banana
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
April 07 2020 18:23 GMT
#2190
On April 08 2020 03:05 tofucake wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.

Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.

Let’s cut it in half.

But maybe I am just our local troll.

Stay home folks.

Naming is not about convenience of speech


Sure, but typing the full name of covid is pointless. When I'm in the covid thread talking about covid, i don't think anyone will wonder which I am referring to.
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
April 07 2020 18:57 GMT
#2191
On April 08 2020 02:15 Firebolt145 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 00:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm still of the belief that there are a couple slightly different mutations of covid out there right now and that it is part of the reason we are seeing so much variability. I'm looking very forward to a year or so from now when we fully understand this unique little virus.

There are already two known strains, an 'L' strain and an 'S' strain. I can't remember which way round but one is more dangerous, whereas the other is more likely to spread. The last I read, the more dangerous one was contained in China, whereas it's the other that has spread all over the world.

I think this was debunked at poor research

http://virological.org/t/response-to-on-the-origin-and-continuing-evolution-of-sars-cov-2/418
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Ben...
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3485 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-07 19:11:30
April 07 2020 19:10 GMT
#2192
On April 08 2020 02:27 Alakaslam wrote:
SARS-CoV 2 anyone? This is severe acute respiratory syndrome, different mutation so bears distinction but seriously folks. Co-vid-nine-teen 4 syllables. SARS-two 2 syllables.

Why do people pick the dumbest things to call stuff and stick with it like dead hands gripping a spoon? I mean, at least this current name is better than coronavirus like co-ro-na-vi-rus we went from 5 to 4.

Let’s cut it in half.

But maybe I am just our local troll.

Stay home folks.

The virus itself is called SARS-CoV-2. The disease it causes is called COVID-19. They're two different things. These are the names given by the WHO. See this handy dandy guide from Ars Technica for more information.

Anecdotally, most people I know refer to it as covid, which is fine. To call the disease SARS-2 would be technically incorrect.
"Cliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide" -Tastosis
CuddlyCuteKitten
Profile Joined January 2004
Sweden2769 Posts
April 07 2020 19:15 GMT
#2193
So for anyone wondering we are still kind of holding here in Sweden. Last I heard there was 20 % ICU capacity left and things are relatively stable.
Tomorrow the results from a random sampling of 3000 people will hopefully be ready.

What I would really love is decently sized antibody testing to see exactly how many people have had the virus and recovered. That could potentially give a timeline on how long this would last.
waaaaaaaaaaaooooow - Felicia, SPF2:T
Firebolt145
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Lalalaland34503 Posts
April 07 2020 19:16 GMT
#2194
On April 08 2020 03:57 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 02:15 Firebolt145 wrote:
On April 08 2020 00:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I'm still of the belief that there are a couple slightly different mutations of covid out there right now and that it is part of the reason we are seeing so much variability. I'm looking very forward to a year or so from now when we fully understand this unique little virus.

There are already two known strains, an 'L' strain and an 'S' strain. I can't remember which way round but one is more dangerous, whereas the other is more likely to spread. The last I read, the more dangerous one was contained in China, whereas it's the other that has spread all over the world.

I think this was debunked at poor research

http://virological.org/t/response-to-on-the-origin-and-continuing-evolution-of-sars-cov-2/418

This paper is the first I've seen that pushes against the L and S theory. I don't know, I haven't been following up on this particular aspect.
Moderator
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
April 07 2020 20:51 GMT
#2195
As I currently understand, we have no idea why some 90 year olds survive corona in a week and some healthy people in their 20s die. That seems super weird. What are people's thoughts?
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
April 07 2020 20:54 GMT
#2196
On April 08 2020 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
As I currently understand, we have no idea why some 90 year olds survive corona in a week and some healthy people in their 20s die. That seems super weird. What are people's thoughts?

Variance in immune systems, pre-existing conditions, different DNA that may or may not have more receivers for the virus. A varying virus load between indivicuals. What answer are you looking for ?

Against all illnesses, different humans have different chances to react differently. Is that surprising ?
NoiR
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
April 07 2020 21:00 GMT
#2197
On April 08 2020 05:54 Nouar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
As I currently understand, we have no idea why some 90 year olds survive corona in a week and some healthy people in their 20s die. That seems super weird. What are people's thoughts?

Variance in immune systems, pre-existing conditions, different DNA that may or may not have more receivers for the virus. A varying virus load between indivicuals. What answer are you looking for ?

Against all illnesses, different humans have different chances to react differently. Is that surprising ?


As an ignorant chemist, virus load, different DNA receivers are things that I didn't know about previously. My ignorant understand is: "Young people get sick = no problem; Old people get sick = gg" since immune systems get worse as you age, so I am not doubting so much as asking if people have any additional understanding or can offer any additional insights.
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-07 21:13:36
April 07 2020 21:11 GMT
#2198
On April 08 2020 06:00 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2020 05:54 Nouar wrote:
On April 08 2020 05:51 Mohdoo wrote:
As I currently understand, we have no idea why some 90 year olds survive corona in a week and some healthy people in their 20s die. That seems super weird. What are people's thoughts?

Variance in immune systems, pre-existing conditions, different DNA that may or may not have more receivers for the virus. A varying virus load between indivicuals. What answer are you looking for ?

Against all illnesses, different humans have different chances to react differently. Is that surprising ?


As an ignorant chemist, virus load, different DNA receivers are things that I didn't know about previously. My ignorant understand is: "Young people get sick = no problem; Old people get sick = gg" since immune systems get worse as you age, so I am not doubting so much as asking if people have any additional understanding or can offer any additional insights.

Immune systems are a topic by themselves, some young people can have immunodeficiency, or just weak immune systems, innately or after exposure to medication, transplants (that usually require immunosuppressant medication) etc.

I'm a noob in these topics, I just know they exist and are hella complicated, so I'll generalise with "variance" :-p Otherwise you wouldn't have evolution for example. Some people adapt better etc etc.


In this very specific case, there is a small chance that something like the BCG vaccine could have an impact, or not. So many variables.


edit @Nevuk because it doesn't warrant a new post : oh yeah, I had forgotten that existed :-D Inflammatory reactions are fun (not).
NoiR
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
April 07 2020 21:12 GMT
#2199
If you're younger the risk of a cytokine storm is much higher. That's the name for the paradoxical reaction where your immune system overreacts and begins to kill your own body - it's why the spanish flu was harder on younger people than older people.
InFiNitY[pG]
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Germany3474 Posts
April 07 2020 21:12 GMT
#2200
What's going on in France rn? 11k new cases and 1400 deaths reported today?
"I just pressed stimpack, and somehow I won the battle" -Flash
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