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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On April 04 2020 04:15 Nouar wrote:There is another scandal maybe brewing : labs. We have large-scales labs at the province level, used for water, animal, food hygiene testing etc... These are able to test, without the reagent limitation of small bio-labs as they have machines tuned with a variety of reagents. They just need their methodology validated to ensure their tests can detect Covid-19 (as they can run it on other coronaviruses) and could run dozens of thousands of tests per day with a 1-week advance notice. Issue ? There is a law from a while ago that forbids them to run tests on humans (when they can test virus in other mammals...), and the government is basically ignoring them for now, has done so for nearly 3 weeks... https://www.lepoint.fr/sante/exclusif-comment-la-france-se-prive-de-150-000-a-300-000-tests-par-semaine-03-04-2020-2369955_40.php
This, at least, got fixed today, the government authorised all labs to run testing over the weekend, effective today.
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On April 06 2020 08:30 Slydie wrote:![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/lYrk13Z.gif) So, I just found some very good news from Spain! https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_66_COVID-19.pdf-Almost none of the new cases of Corona reported their first sympthoms the last few days, although the data is not quite complete (blue graph.) -Very few people have actually been diagnosed with the last few days Corona as well (red graph.) -The official number actually show the date the patients have been informed of the result of the test, but that number is falling rapidly as well, and if the other 2 graphs are correct, it should continue to fall the following days (green graph.) I am not sure how this works, though, the "sympthoms" and "diagnosed" graphs might change as more test results come in. In any case, most graphs point downwards, and soon the total number of infected should start falling as well. On the negative side, nearly 700 people died today, and there are still almost 81000 infected of which are 6800 in a critical condition. The country has been in an almost complete lockdown for 3 weeks now, but at least there has been some noticeable effect from it! Now I just hope the economy will recover. Millions will be out of a job, and I don't expect the very important service industry to get back on track for a long time still.
Unfortunately, that is not the correct way to read that graph. Reading it that way, you would draw the same conclusion every time it was published. The red and blue graphs consistently lag behind the green, and the blue one consistently looks like a flattened out bell curve. All it really shows is that there is a long delay between first symptoms and notification. So the people who have their first symptoms today will probably be notifying the hospital in somewhere between a week and two weeks from now.
Here is a report from a week and two weeks ago:
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_58_COVID-19.pdf
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_52_COVID-19.pdf
You see roughly the same shapes. Even though we know now that then the worst was still to come.
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Have been in lockdown here on Eleuthera, Bahamas for three weeks. Bahamian Government doing a great job of stopping the spread. We have a Friday night to Monday morning curfew, no shopping, no driving, just stay home unless you have an emergency. For the rest of the week we can shop on certain days of the week depending on your initial of your last name. You have to show ID to shop and only one designated family member can go into the shop. Obviously we have restricted numbers of how many people can shop at once as our grocery stores are very small. Police are on the one and only road that travels the length of the island and they stop you and ask where you are going.
Feeling very safe and very lucky to live here.
Inter-island travel was banned two weeks ago except for the boats which bring our food. Staff on the boats are not allowed into the general community, just deliver goods at the dock and leave.
We have some cases of Covid-19 in New Providence (Nassau), Bimini and Grand Bahama with five deaths in total, these are the islands most visited by cruise ships and tourists. Grand Bahamas was devastated after Dorian, so this is a double whammy for them.
All in all just hunkering down and missing my son very much, I worry about him in Utrecht as it appears to be rife in The Netherlands.
Sending my best wishes and hope that this wonderful TL community stays safe.
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On April 06 2020 21:55 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2020 08:30 Slydie wrote:So, I just found some very good news from Spain! https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_66_COVID-19.pdf-Almost none of the new cases of Corona reported their first sympthoms the last few days, although the data is not quite complete (blue graph.) -Very few people have actually been diagnosed with the last few days Corona as well (red graph.) -The official number actually show the date the patients have been informed of the result of the test, but that number is falling rapidly as well, and if the other 2 graphs are correct, it should continue to fall the following days (green graph.) I am not sure how this works, though, the "sympthoms" and "diagnosed" graphs might change as more test results come in. In any case, most graphs point downwards, and soon the total number of infected should start falling as well. On the negative side, nearly 700 people died today, and there are still almost 81000 infected of which are 6800 in a critical condition. The country has been in an almost complete lockdown for 3 weeks now, but at least there has been some noticeable effect from it! Now I just hope the economy will recover. Millions will be out of a job, and I don't expect the very important service industry to get back on track for a long time still. Unfortunately, that is not the correct way to read that graph. Reading it that way, you would draw the same conclusion every time it was published. The red and blue graphs consistently lag behind the green, and the blue one consistently looks like a flattened out bell curve. All it really shows is that there is a long delay between first symptoms and notification. So the people who have their first symptoms today will probably be notifying the hospital in somewhere between a week and two weeks from now. Here is a report from a week and two weeks ago: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_58_COVID-19.pdfhttps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_52_COVID-19.pdfYou see roughly the same shapes. Even though we know now that then the worst was still to come.
Yes, I came to think about that those graphs would be changed retroactively and that there are some long delays at work.
However, both deaths and new cases by "notification" are also dropping rapidly. The number of active cases is flattening out and should start declining soon, maybe as early as tomorrow, but definitely this week!
I can't wait for some of the restrictions to be eased up a little, and I am seriously scared for the immediate future of Spain. So many businesses will be in trouble, and the economy was barely recovered from the finance crisis. Some politicians were still blaming the "crisis" when they did not want to fund something even right before the virus hit. The best part of the country for me has been how people of all ages go out to have a drink and enjoy the company of their friends. Even that could change following this scare.
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No they arent. I follow the daily press conference and they havent said anything, only that they are prepared if needed to take more measures.
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On April 07 2020 00:14 MumofR1ch wrote:
Have been in lockdown here on Eleuthera, Bahamas for three weeks. Bahamian Government doing a great job of stopping the spread. We have a Friday night to Monday morning curfew, no shopping, no driving, just stay home unless you have an emergency. For the rest of the week we can shop on certain days of the week depending on your initial of your last name. You have to show ID to shop and only one designated family member can go into the shop. Obviously we have restricted numbers of how many people can shop at once as our grocery stores are very small. Police are on the one and only road that travels the length of the island and they stop you and ask where you are going.
Feeling very safe and very lucky to live here.
Inter-island travel was banned two weeks ago except for the boats which bring our food. Staff on the boats are not allowed into the general community, just deliver goods at the dock and leave.
We have some cases of Covid-19 in New Providence (Nassau), Bimini and Grand Bahama with five deaths in total, these are the islands most visited by cruise ships and tourists. Grand Bahamas was devastated after Dorian, so this is a double whammy for them.
All in all just hunkering down and missing my son very much, I worry about him in Utrecht as it appears to be rife in The Netherlands.
Sending my best wishes and hope that this wonderful TL community stays safe.
I wish the island of Oahu could do the same lockdown standards like you guys. People are still shopping with all family members and people are still “taking a stroll” in hike paths and beaches. Our lockdown is so hands-off. Maybe we lack the law enforcement manpower or our governor is a wuss.
We’ve been in lockdown since the 23rd of March? It honestly feels a lot longer than that, and I can fully attest a sizeable portion of the population are still having gatherings as usual.
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Lalalaland34495 Posts
Boris Johnson is now in ITU.
Does not bode well tbh.
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Currently the CDC says that people with Asthma are considered higher risk. However, the asthma and allergen federation of america says no increased risk, though previous corona viruses sometimes triggered asthma attacks. I don't understand what I should be doing. Am I high risk? What are other countries saying about asthma?
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On April 07 2020 04:46 Mohdoo wrote:
Currently the CDC says that people with Asthma are considered higher risk. However, the asthma and allergen federation of america says no increased risk, though previous corona viruses sometimes triggered asthma attacks. I don't understand what I should be doing. Am I high risk? What are other countries saying about asthma?
The WHO seems to side with the CDC on this, but more importantly, think about this in terms of Type 1 and Type 2 error in statistics: Suppose you make the wrong call in this scenario; which wrong call would you prefer? Would you rather incorrectly think you're high-risk, or incorrectly think you're not high-risk? Each scenario comes with benefits and drawbacks, but I would think that you should probably assume you're high-risk, because if you're wrong, then at least you were still being really safe and perhaps only missing out on a few superficial experiences. (On the other hand, if you assume you're not high-risk yet you are, the consequence might be that you become seriously ill because you didn't take your social distancing seriously enough.) Better safe than sorry, imho.
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When is the last time a major world leader has been fighting for their life against an illness? This is totally insane.
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TLADT24920 Posts
On April 07 2020 05:08 Mohdoo wrote:
When is the last time a major world leader has been fighting for their life against an illness? This is totally insane.
I don't see why it's insane. It's been obvious for a while that this virus can be deadly to most age groups. People seem to think that having a ventilator or getting the best treatment possible means you should survive, but if the virus is wrecking havoc and your body can't keep up despite all the best medicine can provide, what can you do? Granted, your odds of surviving are much higher with best care which is a given.
Stumbled across this and thought I should share the experiences of a doctor working on intubations in the ICU. It's an interesting, but a bit of a rough read too:
"The first thing I do is pull up a stool and get right down to their level at the bed. Most of the time, the look in their eyes is fear. But sometimes, honestly, it is relief, like, “Thank God. I can’t do this anymore.” They don’t have the energy to be hysterical."
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/05/youre-basically-right-next-nuclear-reactor/?arc404=true&fbclid=IwAR0VTUw12EZsSZR4dp_O35DnrRF3rG29Gix8eJQb6MCZ7-R-ALNd5GZymKQ
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United States43219 Posts
On April 07 2020 05:08 Mohdoo wrote:
When is the last time a major world leader has been fighting for their life against an illness? This is totally insane.
Reagan didn't know who he was towards the end of his presidency.
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TLADT24920 Posts
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On April 07 2020 05:25 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 05:08 Mohdoo wrote:
When is the last time a major world leader has been fighting for their life against an illness? This is totally insane. Reagan didn't know who he was towards the end of his presidency.
Reagan’s second term and FDR’s fourth term were the first that came to my mind upon reading Mohdoo’s post.
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On April 07 2020 05:31 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 05:25 KwarK wrote:On April 07 2020 05:08 Mohdoo wrote:
When is the last time a major world leader has been fighting for their life against an illness? This is totally insane. Reagan didn't know who he was towards the end of his presidency. Reagan’s second term and FDR’s fourth term were the first that came to my mind upon reading Mohdoo’s post.
To be fair, most people here don't have any living memory of either event.
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On April 07 2020 05:08 Mohdoo wrote:
When is the last time a major world leader has been fighting for their life against an illness? This is totally insane.
Don't pretty much all dictators resign due to death? A recent example is Hugo Chávez.
Stalin, Mao etc had "sudden" deaths though.
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On April 07 2020 04:30 Firebolt145 wrote:
Boris Johnson is now in ITU.
Does not bode well tbh.
I have 0 empathy for this jackass who insisted on shaking hands in a hospital in the middle of the epidemic. That's not how a leader should show the way.
I feel the same for Trump and his "we might all have to wear masks... well, not me, though, don't wanna."
Do note I feel the worst about a french guy, a prefect, who argued a few days ago that people in ICU were the idiots who didn't obey confinement. It didn't go well. Surprisingly he hasn't been insta-sacked.
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EPT
