EPTEven after the first wave, hotspots will continue popping up throughout the country and once those start reaching Middle America in earnest, the numbers will get even worse.
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farvacola
United States18846 Posts
Even after the first wave, hotspots will continue popping up throughout the country and once those start reaching Middle America in earnest, the numbers will get even worse. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
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Uldridge
Belgium5020 Posts
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
I don't know much about US federalism bit it seems that the system makes things worse. Centralised testing / flat out prohibiting using available testing methods combined with states competing against each other for medical equipment only created artificial roadblocks that put them weeks behind. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
UK records largest 24-hour increase in deaths The UK has recorded its largest 24-hour increase in deaths from Covid-19. A total of 4,934 patients died in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 5pm on Saturday, the Department of Health has said. That is an increase of 621 from 4,313 yesterday when there were 708 new deaths confirmed in the UK. Yeah, so 621 > 708. It has been a tiring few years for journalists, between Trump and Covid19 :-D | ||
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Simberto
Germany11725 Posts
On April 05 2020 22:41 schaf wrote: Interestingly our German federalism might have helped in tackling the situation. States were pretty free to do their own testing (granted we also have great infrastructure for that) and lockdown measures. Granted the leader of our nation and the state leaders seem honestly interested in keeping everything together and fighting the virus. I don't know much about US federalism bit it seems that the system makes things worse. Centralised testing / flat out prohibiting using available testing methods combined with states competing against each other for medical equipment only created artificial roadblocks that put them weeks behind. If i were to point at the things holding the US back here, federalism wouldn't be at the top of the list. Electing a complete buffoon as president while having a really shitty healthcare system would be the topics i would investigate first. Feelings over facts is another one. If nothing really dramatic is going on, ignoring facts and simply claiming that things are working in accordance to your dogma can work. But corona makes it very clear that at the end of the day, facts don't care what you think about them, they are still facts. And ignoring facts doesn't actually change them either. Edit: And a government which doesn't actually do anything because they are completely locked down due to ideology can work if nothing very immediately requires dealing with. And once again, this crisis shows that doing nothing isn't an option when stuff gets bad. User was temp banned for this post. | ||
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farvacola
United States18846 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23600 Posts
On April 05 2020 21:22 farvacola wrote: I am fairly confident that, after all of this is said and done, the US will have shown the world why "our Federalism" made us extremely fragile and weak to the pandemic, and the daily numbers appear to be heading in that direction already. In a nutshell, our hodgepodge state/federal governmental divide has led to a scattered, non-uniform reaction to the 'rona of the sort that lets the disease run wild, and unless concentrated federal efforts to coordinate a national response are implemented (something that may take many months at this rate), the US infection numbers will only continue getting worse. Even after the first wave, hotspots will continue popping up throughout the country and once those start reaching Middle America in earnest, the numbers will get even worse. Being in Washington where the first cases popped up in the US and having fallen almost out of the top 10 highest recorded infections in the US (www.worldometers.info) makes me think we're doing better than most in the US. Not looking forward to the tension caused by interaction/travel between states that mitigated the spread well, vs places like Florida. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
Surgeon General on meet the press: I talked to many of these governors, and here’s what I say to them. Here’s what I would say to them right now. The next week is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment. It’s going to be our 9/11 moment. It’s going to be the hardest moment for many Americans in their entire lives, and we really need to understand that if we want to flatten that curve and get through to the other side, everyone needs to do their part. 90% of Americans are doing their part, even in the states where they haven’t had a shelter in place. But if you can’t give us 30 days, governors, give us a week, give us what you can so qe1 we don’t overwhelm our health care systems over this next week and let’s reassess at that point. We want everyone to understand, you have to be Rosie the Riveter. You have to do your part. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/politics/jerome-adams-coronavirus/index.html | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23600 Posts
On April 06 2020 02:06 Nevuk wrote: Both Fauci and the surgeon general are warning that the next week is going to be really bad in the US. Surgeon General on meet the press: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/politics/jerome-adams-coronavirus/index.html Correct me if I'm wrong but "flatten the curve" means to maintain the level of deaths and new infections, not stop them altogether. So we're aiming to flatten the curve at the pearl harbor/9-11 level, and it would stay there for more than a week? | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 06 2020 02:11 GreenHorizons wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but "flatten the curve" means to maintain the level of deaths and new infections, not stop them altogether. So we're aiming to flatten the curve at the pearl harbor/9-11 level, and it would stay there for more than a week? At this point I don't think it's possible to have a better-case scenario than that. We can't un-infect those that have already been infected, so the best you can do is prevent it from getting worse. Some significant level of mismanagement in allowing it to get this bad in the first place is acknowledged. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22068 Posts
On April 06 2020 02:11 GreenHorizons wrote: stopping infections stopped being an option over a month ago. flattening at pearl harbor/9-11 (~2400 deaths) is a 'hope' at this point I would say.Correct me if I'm wrong but "flatten the curve" means to maintain the level of deaths and new infections, not stop them altogether. So we're aiming to flatten the curve at the pearl harbor/9-11 level, and it would stay there for more than a week? That is why he is asking for 1 week, because he expects it will be bad enough that people are more willing to listen to him by then and be willing to commit to it for longer. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23600 Posts
On April 06 2020 02:20 Gorsameth wrote: stopping infections stopped being an option over a month ago. flattening at pearl harbor/9-11 (~2400 deaths) is a 'hope' at this point I would say. That is why he is asking for 1 week, because he expects it will be bad enough that people are more willing to listen to him by then and be willing to commit to it for longer. I don't know how the population numbers work out especially with all the many shortcomings of testing as a measure of prevalence of infection discussed at length here, but that seems optimistic to me as well with consideration to places like Florida/Texas with both high populations and only recent statewide stay-home orders. Going to be a tough April for people around the world and especially the US it seems. I guess I gotta just brace for it at this point. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/magazine/navy-captain-crozier-positive-coronavirus.html Also, this piece by Nate Silver is pretty critical reading : https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/ Basically, country to country comparisons aren't useful because of how differently each country/state is testing. To give an idea of how far off they can be, Ohio said that they guessed there were 100,000 infections in their state when they had gotten <40 positives. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2708 Posts
On April 06 2020 02:11 GreenHorizons wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but "flatten the curve" means to maintain the level of deaths and new infections, not stop them altogether. So we're aiming to flatten the curve at the pearl harbor/9-11 level, and it would stay there for more than a week? It just means to slow down the spread. The curve can still go up. Basically, a lot of people will be infected. You can either have a very step curve (exponential growth) or a flatter one (more linear growth). The goal is to make it flatter and wider, so that the same amount of people will be infected over a longer period of time. The reason is that many people who get hospital treatment will live if they can get treatment for a couple of weeks, but die if they can't. If you have a step but short curve you will have many more people requiring treatment at the same time, and more people will die. I think he's mainly talking about 9/11 and Pearl Harbor as a symbolic thing as in we need to take action next week, not the number of deaths (although potentially there could be a 9/11 a day if it gets bad). From a practical standpoint of course any prevented infections won't show for two more weeks. | ||
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Slydie
1929 Posts
Basically, country to country comparisons aren't useful because of how differently each country/state is testing. To give an idea of how far off they can be, Ohio said that they guessed there were 100,000 infections in their state when they had gotten <40 positives. The number of tests is also public. When Spain locked down, it was obvious that there were a lot of undetected cases, but as more people get tested, that number should get lower. Good site for anyone who likes numbers, they recently added "number of tests" as well. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Almost every country is using mass testing as a main way to fight the virus. Korea showed that by testing enough people early and tracking down every possibly infected person, you can avoid locking down the country alltogether, and rather focus on people who actually have the virus. Too bad the West learned that a too late. Good news, both Spain and Italy are reporting fewer deaths and new cases the last few days. Maybe there is an end in sight? | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
On April 06 2020 04:40 Slydie wrote: The number of tests is also public. When Spain locked down, it was obvious that there were a lot of undetected cases, but as more people get tested, that number should get lower. Good site for anyone who likes numbers, they recently added "number of tests" as well. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Almost every country is using mass testing as a main way to fight the virus. Korea showed that by testing enough people early and tracking down every possibly infected person, you can avoid locking down the country alltogether, and rather focus on people who actually have the virus. Too bad the West learned that a too late. Good news, both Spain and Italy are reporting fewer deaths and new cases the last few days. Maybe there is an end in sight? Shouldn't we be able to get pretty good estimates on the number of deaths this will cause in Spain and Italy now that they seem to have peaked? Guessing that this is normally distributed, like everything else in this world, would give like 25 000 dead in Spain (they are at 12400 now)? Do you think that is reasonable? (Disregarding the possibility for a second waive, of course.) | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On April 06 2020 05:36 Elroi wrote: Shouldn't we be able to get pretty good estimates on the number of deaths this will cause in Spain and Italy now that they seem to have peaked? Guessing that this is normally distributed, like everything else in this world, would give like 25 000 dead in Spain (they are at 12400 now)? Do you think that is reasonable? (Disregarding the possibility for a second waive, of course.) There are a lot of things in the world that aren't normally distributed. Deaths are a result of an ODE involving demographics, #infected, infection rate, recovery rate, mortality rate, availability of care, etc. You'd have to integrate deaths over that to figure it out, and with the variables changing day by day, it's difficult to say what the total number of deaths will be. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 06 2020 05:36 Elroi wrote: Shouldn't we be able to get pretty good estimates on the number of deaths this will cause in Spain and Italy now that they seem to have peaked? Guessing that this is normally distributed, like everything else in this world, would give like 25 000 dead in Spain (they are at 12400 now)? Do you think that is reasonable? (Disregarding the possibility for a second waive, of course.) I think you're missing something. The virus is not going to disappear, and deaths are not going to stop until we find either a cure to symptoms that avoids people dying, or a vaccine, or herd immunity. There will always be travellers from other countries that will bring it back, and you can't shut down the country for a year. It was always about bringing the first wave down to manageable levels for hospitals, and try to keep them busy but not overloaded. Deaths will continue. Even with care in ICU, the most vulnerable people are still going to die. I don't think you can estimate a final deaths number currently, it's not a Bell distribution going down to 0. France's numbers looked really good today, a few more in ICU and deaths going down. However it was the same last sunday with catchup on monday, so I'll hold my horses for 1/2 days... | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
(Gg but just linked for the quote and story link) | ||
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