EPThttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011
Coronavirus and You - Page 107
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011 | ||
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Slydie
1927 Posts
On April 06 2020 06:11 Amui wrote: There are a lot of things in the world that aren't normally distributed. Deaths are a result of an ODE involving demographics, #infected, infection rate, recovery rate, mortality rate, availability of care, etc. You'd have to integrate deaths over that to figure it out, and with the variables changing day by day, it's difficult to say what the total number of deaths will be. Yes, predicting future victims of this is so hard even top experts are very careful. I recently saw a fairly wide estimate of 100k to 250k for the US, but it could end up both higher and lower depending on a lot of variables. As for the virus returning, it will be easier to deal with it each time. A very important reason why it can spread so fast is that nobody had immunity. Everybody who died or recovered (even with very mild symptoms) the first time will not spread the virus nor get sick in the future. I would have to read up on it, but many of them will even be immune to possible mutations. Also, systems will be in place to prevent new outbreaks. There has not been a second wave anywhere in Asia yet. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17433 Posts
On April 06 2020 06:50 Slydie wrote: Yes, predicting future victims of this is so hard even top experts are very careful. I recently saw a fairly wide estimate of 100k to 250k for the US, but it could end up both higher and lower depending on a lot of variables. As for the virus returning, it will be easier to deal with it each time. A very important reason why it can spread so fast is that nobody had immunity. Everybody who died or recovered (even with very mild symptoms) the first time will not spread the virus nor get sick in the future. I would have to read up on it, but many of them will even be immune to possible mutations. Also, systems will be in place to prevent new outbreaks. There has not been a second wave anywhere in Asia yet. But wasn't it said that going through it doesn't grant you immunity? People can get re-infected. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6215 Posts
On April 06 2020 06:56 Manit0u wrote: But wasn't it said that going through it doesn't grant you immunity? People can get re-infected. I think that's a very rare case, and seems more in line with a false negative test declaration of recovery rather than a re-infection | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On April 06 2020 06:56 Manit0u wrote: But wasn't it said that going through it doesn't grant you immunity? People can get re-infected. We aren't sure yet, basically. | ||
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KOFgokuon
United States14899 Posts
On April 06 2020 06:38 Nouar wrote: It seems there is a known anti-parasitic, ivermectine, is successfully inhibiting Covid19 reproduction in vitro. In 48h, it reduces viral RNA by 5000-fold. It's a good lead if tests show the same results in vivo. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011 Plenty of stuff works in vitro and in animals, wake me up after there are clinical trials that actually treat humans | ||
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HelpMeGetBetter
United States764 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On April 06 2020 07:32 HelpMeGetBetter wrote: I live in the NYC/NJ area, is this the week things get real bad? Feels like people been staying that for a while. I'm able to work from home, but nobody from my work has been known to have the virus (at least not yet). The peak for this virus hasn't been reached yet, correct? Cuomo has said it's going to peak in the next 3-7 days in NYC. (Video says 4-8 but that was yesterday) John Bel Edwards (LA Governor) has also said they expect to run out of ventilators this week. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/politics/john-bel-edwards-ventilators-cnntv/index.html | ||
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Slydie
1927 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/lYrk13Z.gif) So, I just found some very good news from Spain! https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_66_COVID-19.pdf -Almost none of the new cases of Corona reported their first sympthoms the last few days, although the data is not quite complete (blue graph.) -Very few people have actually been diagnosed with the last few days Corona as well (red graph.) -The official number actually show the date the patients have been informed of the result of the test, but that number is falling rapidly as well, and if the other 2 graphs are correct, it should continue to fall the following days (green graph.) I am not sure how this works, though, the "sympthoms" and "diagnosed" graphs might change as more test results come in. In any case, most graphs point downwards, and soon the total number of infected should start falling as well. On the negative side, nearly 700 people died today, and there are still almost 81000 infected of which are 6800 in a critical condition. The country has been in an almost complete lockdown for 3 weeks now, but at least there has been some noticeable effect from it! Now I just hope the economy will recover. Millions will be out of a job, and I don't expect the very important service industry to get back on track for a long time still. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18118 Posts
On April 06 2020 06:50 Slydie wrote: Yes, predicting future victims of this is so hard even top experts are very careful. I recently saw a fairly wide estimate of 100k to 250k for the US, but it could end up both higher and lower depending on a lot of variables. As for the virus returning, it will be easier to deal with it each time. A very important reason why it can spread so fast is that nobody had immunity. Everybody who died or recovered (even with very mild symptoms) the first time will not spread the virus nor get sick in the future. I would have to read up on it, but many of them will even be immune to possible mutations. Also, systems will be in place to prevent new outbreaks. There has not been a second wave anywhere in Asia yet. Immunity is not something we can count on for a very long time to stop the spread. Let's take Spain as an example: even if the official numbers are 10 times lower than the actual number of people who got infected and fought it off, that is just 2% of the population. That isn't going to make a large dent in the spread of the disease. Herd immunity (which prevents it from spreading at all) will only kick in at 30-75% of the population being immune (uncertainty stems from not knowing the real R0 value, and is estimated off it being somewhere between 1.5 and 4, with a). So we have a looong way of lots of people getting infected to reach even the lower bound without a vaccine. That said, the roadmap as outlined in https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/ should allow most Western countries to recover without a 2nd wave getting out of control. Poor countries are probably screwed though. They don't have a hope of setting up the infrastructure required for all the testing. | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria832 Posts
On April 06 2020 08:43 Emnjay808 wrote: My understanding is that the virus is slow mutating so once we build an immunity to it, chances of infection is unlikely. Well, we're immune to that specific virus but coronavirus is an RNA virus which means it's capable of recombination. As far as I understood from reading, this means that if you get infected by coronavirus and another virus at the same time, a new virus could appear. Those 2 viruses just swap some of their genetic material. I think Wikipedia mentions it here too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_virus#Recombination | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
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virpi
Germany3599 Posts
On April 06 2020 09:22 Emnjay808 wrote: U mean if they swap their generic materiel then the mutated virus is still capable of doing what the novel COVIDs been doing too? Well that’s scary. It's possible for the virus to become worse, but it's also possible that it becomes less infective if it mutates. Mutation can go in every direction. @thread I'm a teacher (German / History / Ethics) at a school in Munich. Bavaria is in lockdown for about 2 weeks, schools are closed for 3 weeks now. Today is the first day of the Easter break. The bavarian government plans on reopening schools on 20th of April, but right now, nobody really knows if and how that'll happen. My school is small, our hallways are really narrow. Social distancing is almost impossible there. It's likely that there will be at least some classes for the older students. Otherwise, life has become quiet. Streets and especially buses/trains are pretty empty, which is understandable. Lots of people are in home office, it's only allowed to go to work or shopping. Meeting people is forbidden. Personally, I'm not too affected by the whole thing. I'm fine with staying at home, I did some online classes for my students, which worked out fine overall. I'm a bit worried for my mother, as she's 74. Luckily, she's living in a rural area in northern Bavaria with very few cases, which is why she's not at a huge risk right now. She's also a very reasonable person. My friends and I are skyping a lot, actually, we're staying more in touch than before the crisis. I hope it'll stay that way once it ends, but we all know how it is. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12129 Posts
On April 06 2020 09:22 Emnjay808 wrote: U mean if they swap their generic materiel then the mutated virus is still capable of doing what the novel COVIDs been doing too? Well that’s scary. Acording to the articles I've read most viruses ten to mutate towards less lethal state -> they want survive and spread, so the host has to live as long as possible while spreading as long as possible. It's not guaranteed but let's be for once optimistic  | ||
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
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Furikawari
France2522 Posts
On April 06 2020 17:29 deacon.frost wrote: Acording to the articles I've read most viruses ten to mutate towards less lethal state -> they want survive and spread, so the host has to live as long as possible while spreading as long as possible. It's not guaranteed but let's be for once optimistic Please the virus wants nothing... It's just that deadlier version usually have less possibility to spread hence to become dominant. | ||
zatic
Zurich15355 Posts
On April 06 2020 17:29 deacon.frost wrote: Acording to the articles I've read most viruses ten to mutate towards less lethal state -> they want survive and spread, so the host has to live as long as possible while spreading as long as possible. It's not guaranteed but let's be for once optimistic Well long term that is how natural selection works, yes. It can be misleading to say the virus "wants" that though. Short term a virus can very well become more deadly. Which would be detrimental to the long term spread of the virus, yes, but that doesn't help the dead humans on its path. | ||
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Slydie
1927 Posts
On April 06 2020 17:45 zatic wrote: Well long term that is how natural selection works, yes. It can be misleading to say the virus "wants" that though. Short term a virus can very well become more deadly. Which would be detrimental to the long term spread of the virus, yes, but that doesn't help the dead humans on its path. It would be interesting to know what the sweet spot between mortality and spreading potential is. If many die, even more get seriously sick, and those patients should not be considered prime spreaders either. Is the ultimate hyper infections airborne virus with a super long incubation time and high death rate even for healthy patients even possible? | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17433 Posts
On April 06 2020 18:18 Slydie wrote: It would be interesting to know what the sweet spot between mortality and spreading potential is. If many die, even more get seriously sick, and those patients should not be considered prime spreaders either. Is the ultimate hyper infections airborne virus with a super long incubation time and high death rate even for healthy patients even possible? Play Plague Inc. and experiment. And regarding the mutations, they're completely random. It's not like the virus can direct the mutation to go certain way (oh look, I'm killing my host too quick, let's get less lethal). You just get a bunch of random variations (more lethal, less lethal etc.) and then one of them becomes dominant. | ||
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