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On April 05 2020 04:42 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 04:22 JimmiC wrote:Yes it is getting worse globally by the day. Yesterday the total new cases of deaths was about 10%of the entire amount of deaths. Today that number is 15%. And it slows no sign of slowing down, only picking up. https://www.bing.com/covid That is partially do to France doing weird counting stuff. The rest is mostly the US just growing really fast. France alone has had 26000 new cases, and as we discussed in this thread, that is because a lot of these cases are collected from the whole week. Spain and Italy seem to mostly have stabilized around their current level of new infections and deaths for maybe a week now, Germany is also stabilizing apparently. France is hard to tell due to the counting weirdness, and the US is clearly in the phase of uncontrolled growth.
Not the whole week. Ever since the outbreak started. Not all retirement homes have reported yet, so expect a few more bizarre numbers in the coming days.
The only figures easily available to aggregators to survey France's evolution is the ICU/severe cases figures. Growth is slowing, a few days behind Italy.
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Why IS France ignoring deaths in retirement homes anyways? Just to present better numbers? It makes no sense either way.
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? Did you read my posts on the previous pages (24h), more specifically my answer to Danglars, before asking that ?
They are not ignoring them. These are private providers that did not necessarily push their numbers to the state automatically. Gathering the numbers took some time and the reporting is not yet over. They are now starting to get included in the daily report given out by the government. The huge numbers you have seen for the past three days were catching up on those numbers.
Do note that it is uncertain that Spain and Italy are reporting retirement home deaths... (at least that's what the French news said, when they were asked that question). I don't know about Germany.
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France is doing that because it's difficult to tell what a 90yo with multiple comorbidities who died in his sleep died of, and it's a waste of capacity to test him for covid after the fact. This is fair enough, but it does distort the numbers.
I feel like you could get most of the way there by taking total deaths and then subtracting some kind of seasonally adjusted historical rate to get a number for covid. It wouldn't be correct but it would be closer than "idk technically zero"
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On April 05 2020 07:00 Belisarius wrote:
France is doing that because it's difficult to tell what a 90yo with multiple comorbidities who died in his sleep died of, and it's a waste of capacity to test him for covid after the fact. This is fair enough, but it does distort the numbers.
I feel like you could get most of the way there by taking total deaths and then subtracting some kind of seasonally adjusted historical rate to get a number for covid. It wouldn't be correct but it would be closer than "idk technically zero"
I don't think you understand the issue. France is/was only reporting deaths by hospital patients who tested positive for Covid-19, yet not for deaths in retirement homes by people that tested positive for Covid-19. Obviously you do not include every single death in a retirement home in a Covid-19 death statistic, however if a 90 year old died last week AND was infected with the Corona Virus, it is almost guaranteed that Corona actually caused the death, no matter how many other illnesses that person might have had other than Covid-19.
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I can most likely confirm that Argentina is severely under reporting confirmed cases/death (even on purpose, in my opinion) and ecuador can't count properly their dead yet.
Please quote me on this later.
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Some interesting numbers:
USA population is ~330 million
Population of Germany+France+UK+Italy+Spain is ~325 million
As of yesterday:
USA is at 277.1k cases, +32.3k new, +1.3k deaths
those 5 european are at:
450k, +45.4k new, +3.6k deaths
USA is only about 5 days or so behind the sum of those countries.
I wonder if there's a good way to track how those numbers compare over time.
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On April 05 2020 07:27 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 07:00 Belisarius wrote:
France is doing that because it's difficult to tell what a 90yo with multiple comorbidities who died in his sleep died of, and it's a waste of capacity to test him for covid after the fact. This is fair enough, but it does distort the numbers.
I feel like you could get most of the way there by taking total deaths and then subtracting some kind of seasonally adjusted historical rate to get a number for covid. It wouldn't be correct but it would be closer than "idk technically zero" I don't think you understand the issue. France is/was only reporting deaths by hospital patients who tested positive for Covid-19, yet not for deaths in retirement homes by people that tested positive for Covid-19. Obviously you do not include every single death in a retirement home in a Covid-19 death statistic, however if a 90 year old died last week AND was infected with the Corona Virus, it is almost guaranteed that Corona actually caused the death, no matter how many other illnesses that person might have had other than Covid-19.
It's really not, though. Even in extreme risk categories, the virus still has a deathrate of around 20% and is still mild in many cases. Elderly and frail people obviously die of a wide range of interconnected things - falls are of course the textbook case, where the fall does not strictly kill them but starts a spiral of comorbidities and infections that ends in death by something else. Which is considered the cause of death? It's an artificially simple description of a complicated situation.
I'm not intending to defend France's reporting, only explain why they might have done it that way. I think it's far better to report them all than to report none, but there is a narrower view that inaccurate statistics are worse than no statistics. By now, the background rate of non-covid deaths is negligible, but in the very early stages it may not have been.
And anyway, if the patient has tested positive, they are being reported now. The invisible events are the large number of people who pass away without being tested
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Austria's numbers look quite promising right now. On the Johns Hopkins map, it's quite clear that their day-over-day numbers are decreasing and are currently on track to cause their cumulative graph of cases to level out. Given that they have one of the highest per-capita testing rates, we can also trust that their numbers are likely accurate. Given the extreme difference in how the virus was handled in Austria versus their neighbours who are still having rather significant increases in case reporting, it definitely seems like we should be examining what Austria did in detail.
Here in Canada, British Columbia's numbers are also quite promising and suggest that testing + social distancing is working. They were on a scary trajectory at first but now their numbers being reported are mostly either stable or in some cases have decreased (they went from approaching 100 cases a day to about 50 a day for the last 5 days or so). In general, we're sitting pretty okay in Western Canada. Alberta's numbers have slowed their increase in a similar fashion, and Saskatchewan's numbers never have really taken off, despite having some the highest per-capita testing of all provinces. In the west though, we have the benefit of a lot of our population being spaced out and not a lot of population density in general. Unfortunately, east of Manitoba, where populations tend to be much more densely clustered, the numbers are going up at a much less comforting rate. Quebec has roughly half Canada's cases of the virus, and Ontario is also increasing. At least we've had the benefit of more time than some other countries to prep for an eventual surge so we should be okay, unlike our neighbour to the south. I'm thinking the US/Canada border is going to be heavily restricted for quite a while with how things are going. We can't risk the virus coming north and getting out of control after so much was done by so many people here to prevent spread.
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Interesting that you take Austria as an example. Do you know what they have done there? One of the things I have been wondering about in the statistics for a long time is that things are so different between Austria and Switzerland - and to me the countries seem to have so many similarities. Austria seems to have been able to cope really well with the situation from the start, as you say.
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Quickly skimmed through here ('till 3/29th), didn't see this mentioned:
(article & twitter thread)
Seems to be gaining traction.
Main point, quoted from the thread:
The paper modeled these and found that the proteins "collaborate" to knock iron ions out of heme groups (HBB) and replace them with one of the proteins.
This makes the red blood cell unable to transport O2 and CO2.
Also:
The paper models the behavior of chloroquine and faviparavir as well, which appear to bind to the non-structural viral proteins that hijack the heme groups, thus inhibiting them from knocking out the iron and wrecking the O2-carrying ability of the red blood cells.
Found it here, while lurking:
https://old.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fuohrm/megathread_covid19sarscov2_april_4th_2020/fme6r6z/
r/covid19 and r/medicine
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Meh
conserved domain analysis, homology modeling, and molecular docking were used to compare the biological roles of certain proteins of the novel coronavirus.
It isn't empirical, just based on computed models? Heavily focused on what ifs, is what it looks like to me.
Just doesn't seem Occam's razorish to assume that the bloodox is low because it attacks red blood cells when it is confirmed to affect the lungs.
Given the affected cell typ (type 2 pneumocytes) I'm assuming it is more akin to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant_respiratory_distress_syndrome
As for a heavy read, there's this article about the pathology in patients that had an existing condition.
https://www.jto.org/article/S1556-0864(20)30132-5/pdf
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On April 05 2020 16:22 Elroi wrote:
Interesting that you take Austria as an example. Do you know what they have done there? One of the things I have been wondering about in the statistics for a long time is that things are so different between Austria and Switzerland - and to me the countries seem to have so many similarities. Austria seems to have been able to cope really well with the situation from the start, as you say.
I believe Austria was one of the few countries that was quick and decisive in combining a hard lockdown with testing as much as possible before the spread got out of control.
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On April 05 2020 17:24 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 16:22 Elroi wrote:
Interesting that you take Austria as an example. Do you know what they have done there? One of the things I have been wondering about in the statistics for a long time is that things are so different between Austria and Switzerland - and to me the countries seem to have so many similarities. Austria seems to have been able to cope really well with the situation from the start, as you say. I believe Austria was one of the few countries that was quick and decisive in combining a hard lockdown with testing as much as possible before the spread got out of control.
Austria and Spain took very similar measures at very similar times. The difference was that Spain had ~5000 confirmed cases at the time, whereas Austria was still under 1000.
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On April 05 2020 17:56 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 17:24 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:On April 05 2020 16:22 Elroi wrote:
Interesting that you take Austria as an example. Do you know what they have done there? One of the things I have been wondering about in the statistics for a long time is that things are so different between Austria and Switzerland - and to me the countries seem to have so many similarities. Austria seems to have been able to cope really well with the situation from the start, as you say. I believe Austria was one of the few countries that was quick and decisive in combining a hard lockdown with testing as much as possible before the spread got out of control. Austria and Spain took very similar measures at very similar times. The difference was that Spain had ~5000 confirmed cases at the time, whereas Austria was still under 1000.
Why Spain is hit so hard despite the hard lockdown at a fairly early stage should be researched later, but some explanations I have come across include:
-An old population.
-An overwhelmed healthcare system, especially in Madrid.
-The hardest hit city is the capital, located in the centre with good connections everywhere. It was a virus catalyst for the rest of the country.
-A social out-of-the-house culture, letting the virus spread a lot before the lockdown.
-Not enough supplies at some hospitals.
-A high use of antibiotics has caused bacteria to be resistant, and many of them have permanent residence in hospitals. Secondary infections could be a very important factor for the death rate of Covid, but this needs more research.
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This is in my field. This type of modelling is notoriously unreliable and must be done extremely carefully and well to produce meaningful results. There are multiple red flags in the work at a quick read. I would not put any stock in this at all.
I can go through in more detail later if anyone cares, but this is really not something to run with right now.
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On April 05 2020 18:22 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 17:56 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2020 17:24 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:On April 05 2020 16:22 Elroi wrote:
Interesting that you take Austria as an example. Do you know what they have done there? One of the things I have been wondering about in the statistics for a long time is that things are so different between Austria and Switzerland - and to me the countries seem to have so many similarities. Austria seems to have been able to cope really well with the situation from the start, as you say. I believe Austria was one of the few countries that was quick and decisive in combining a hard lockdown with testing as much as possible before the spread got out of control. Austria and Spain took very similar measures at very similar times. The difference was that Spain had ~5000 confirmed cases at the time, whereas Austria was still under 1000. Why Spain is hit so hard despite the hard lockdown at a fairly early stage should be researched later, but some explanations I have come across include: -An old population. -An overwhelmed healthcare system, especially in Madrid. -The hardest hit city is the capital, located in the centre with good connections everywhere. It was a virus catalyst for the rest of the country. -A social out-of-the-house culture, letting the virus spread a lot before the lockdown. -Not enough supplies at some hospitals. -A high use of antibiotics has caused bacteria to be resistant, and many of them have permanent residence in hospitals. Secondary infections could be a very important factor for the death rate of Covid, but this needs more research.
All of those are possible reasons for why it got out of control so fast here. I was mainly just trying to point out that Austria took similar drastic measures (that also in Spain are slowing down the spread very effectively), but did so when they had under 1/5 of the number of cases. Everything points towards that acting fast is the best way to fight this disease and Austria acted fast. If Spain had acted the way it did a week earlier (when cases were under 1k), maybe nobody would be trying to figure out why it was so bad here, and instead would be analysing what Spain did right to get it under control so quickly.
Don't get me wrong, there are other factors that may have ensured that Spain was getting hit hard regardless. But a week of uncontrolled exponential spread is imho the main difference between Austria and Spain.
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On April 05 2020 10:15 Lmui wrote:
Some interesting numbers:
USA population is ~330 million
Population of Germany+France+UK+Italy+Spain is ~325 million
As of yesterday:
USA is at 277.1k cases, +32.3k new, +1.3k deaths
those 5 european are at:
450k, +45.4k new, +3.6k deaths
USA is only about 5 days or so behind the sum of those countries.
I wonder if there's a good way to track how those numbers compare over time.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
Scroll down to "In case it is helpful for your work or you want to examine our version of the ECDC data in detail you can download all this data below." and get the ones you want.
Or if you want a nice presentation of the data from the source https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
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On April 05 2020 10:15 Lmui wrote:
Some interesting numbers:
USA population is ~330 million
Population of Germany+France+UK+Italy+Spain is ~325 million
As of yesterday:
USA is at 277.1k cases, +32.3k new, +1.3k deaths
those 5 european are at:
450k, +45.4k new, +3.6k deaths
USA is only about 5 days or so behind the sum of those countries.
I wonder if there's a good way to track how those numbers compare over time.
Why make a comparison like this? You are handpicking the countries with the worst corona situation? What would that comparision be interesting?
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Also, on the single day where France does weird stuff with counting leading to at least 20k additional cases that probably don't actually belong to that day. (as explained above) On any other day, the five countries are at about 25k new cases together.
And the main problem the US has is that their situation is very much not stable. In all of the european countries, the daily new cases seem to be about constant or dropping. In the US, they still increase a lot every day. The US is heading towards an even worse situation, while the situation in the EU is stabilizing. This alone is something that should worry you a lot.
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EPT
