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As a counterpoint to "yeah, this is not a problem", i would like to point at the current data, especially that of the US.
The US still has an ever increasing of new cases every day (now about 30k), and an ever increasing daily death count (latest of about 1400). This means that you can expect this death count to still stick around (and probably keep increasing). You will have 1000+ daily deaths for a while. You can only expect deaths to start lowering if the daily rate of new cases starts to lower, and so far it doesn't show any inclination of doing this, on the contrary, it seems to increase pretty linearly. As a comparison, the average daily rate of US deaths due to WW2 was less than 300.
On the other hand, i am cautiously optimistic of the situation here in Germany. Our new cases seem to be have stabilized at about 6000-7000 for a week now, and our death rate seems to stay low. (Some other data i have seen even sees the new infections dropping) So our lockdown measures do seem to have an effect on the spread of the virus.
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On April 04 2020 10:24 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2020 10:11 ThatCleanBurn wrote:
People complaining about the lockdowns are just trying to force a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now we’re stuck constantly moving goalposts.
Rather than take it extremely seriously and ramp things up immediately like Singapore or South Korea, the world is ending up like Japan where the initial belief was that they shouldn’t do anything because of the economy/Olympics and that the coronavirus was no worse than your standard flu.
Except now Japan can’t do anything to halt the spread because it’s clear that the spread is too virulent at this point and there’s nothing to do except for complete lockdowns for long periods of time or sacrificing the population for the economy. They could have avoided this if they actually did something initially but we listened to people against lockdowns to protect the economy and their belief that this was just a weaker flu.
The fact of the matter is re-opening everything isn’t going to resuscitate the economy. People aren’t spending, they aren’t working and people are trying to hunker down even if you go out and tell everyone to spend time at their local cafe. Life isn’t going back to normal even if a proper vaccine with no side effects and 100% effectiveness is found overnight. What do you mean by 'sacrificing the population'? Latest numbers from Japan are 2617 conf. cases and 65 deaths (WHO sitreps as usual). So if we become like Japan then it seems we have done a good job. Also you can't sacrifice people for the economy that are more likely not in an age to be a part of it, but those are the ones at risk, so you just tell them to stay at home. People who already went through the disease and are confirmed non-infectious afterwards shouldn't be forced to stay at home. That's just rational. Give them a document and lift their restrictions. If they have immunity they shouldn't even have to wear a mask.
That's not a bad idea. There will be people trying to get it so they can continue to work though, that could be a problem. Social distancing/lockdowns will also be harder to enforce when you have two sets of standards.
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Just because your not infectious doesn't mean your not a possible vector for infection. You can still carry particles on you that then infect someone else.
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The percentage of people who have been tested positive and recovered is such a teeny tiny portion of the population that it doesn't make a lot of sense to make regulations specifically for them. And the people who recovered are not visually different from those who were never infected. So how does the police go about enforcing the lockdown? So it opens up the risk that other people go out and about too. Even with some kind of paper, there would be more people about and the police would therefore have a harder job. Perhaps to the point where it just breaks down entirely.
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The county I work in has a population of around 400k. As of yesterday, only 730 tests have been performed in the county. Yes, only 730 tests total.
We are nowhere close to having the testing capability we need.
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I have a question,maybe off topic,how do you guys recognize if a piece of news is fake or not?
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Out of the top of my head this is what I've used to evaluate news sources.
I do not do this (nearly) regularly (enough) and absolutely not for everything I read.
#1 Seeing a similar story someplace else (in conjunction with #2)?
#2 reliable news source?
#3 massive contradiction to commonly known facts?
#4 too good to be true?
#5 easy answer to complex question?
#6 reliability of the source (not the reporting medium)
#7 possible conflicts of interes regarding the topic reported on by the repoting agency
#8 is the "news" mostly on social media?
The more breaking a news is, the harder of course it is to judge whether its fake or somewhat biased, imo
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On April 04 2020 21:15 FBTsingLoong wrote:
I have a question,maybe off topic,how do you guys recognize if a piece of news is fake or not?
When it comes to news people tend to believe, whatever fits their own perception of reality.
It doesn't really matter to (most) people whether the news they're fed are actually true or not, as long as they don't challenge their own belief system. (imho)
So to answer your question, the first step to really recognizing fake news is questioning your own beliefs and not closing your eyes to the evidence* right in front of you.
(*By evidence I mean real evidence not some bogus conspiracy theory nonsense)
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Lalalaland34501 Posts
On April 04 2020 20:06 Acrofales wrote:
The percentage of people who have been tested positive and recovered is such a teeny tiny portion of the population that it doesn't make a lot of sense to make regulations specifically for them. And the people who recovered are not visually different from those who were never infected. So how does the police go about enforcing the lockdown? So it opens up the risk that other people go out and about too. Even with some kind of paper, there would be more people about and the police would therefore have a harder job. Perhaps to the point where it just breaks down entirely.
There is also uncertainty about whether one can be reinfected with the virus after recovery.
https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/
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It's actually not uncertain and the time article you linked also states that. But they make it look like it's a possibility to get clicks.
Experts say the body’s antibody response, triggered by the onset of a virus, means it is unlikely that patients who have recovered from COVID-19 can get re-infected so soon after contracting the virus. Antibodies are normally produced in a patient’s body around seven to 10 days after the initial onset of a virus, says Vineet Menachery, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch.
Instead, testing positive after recovery could just mean the tests resulted in a false negative and that the patient is still infected
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That's actually exactly what the article says. Here's the money quote for you.
With other coronavirus strains, experts say the antibodies that patients produce during infection give them immunity to the specific virus for months or even years, but researchers are still figuring out if and how that works with COVID-19.
It's the 3rd paragraph. The only thing the bolded part says is that the evidence does not suffice to say reinfection did occur.
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Lalalaland34501 Posts
Yep, hence why it's uncertain.
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Again, France numbers are a mess these days, due to partial inclusions of retirement homes. However, the situation in hospitals is "improving".
For the whole week, the number of ICU admissions has been slightly slowing down, and the number of deaths in hospitals seems to have plateaued as well.
441 deaths in hospitals, and only 176 more ICU patients today. In Italy, the amount of ICU patients has decreased for the first time today as well.
In Italy, there is suspicion that the amount of deaths reported is FAR lower than the truth. The national statistics institute compared Lombardy death figures for a fifth of the districts for the first 3 weeks of March. Usually there would be, averaged over five years, 8000 deaths.
There have been, in 2020, 16000. (That's only in 20% of Lombardy districts, whereas the total amount of reported deaths in the whole of Italy was 4800 at that time)
The information is behind a french paywall, but they gave figures in the newsfeed.
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On April 04 2020 22:00 Firebolt145 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2020 20:06 Acrofales wrote:
The percentage of people who have been tested positive and recovered is such a teeny tiny portion of the population that it doesn't make a lot of sense to make regulations specifically for them. And the people who recovered are not visually different from those who were never infected. So how does the police go about enforcing the lockdown? So it opens up the risk that other people go out and about too. Even with some kind of paper, there would be more people about and the police would therefore have a harder job. Perhaps to the point where it just breaks down entirely. There is also uncertainty about whether one can be reinfected with the virus after recovery. https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/
The uncertainty is how long immunity lasts, not whether it exists. See the last paragraph in the article. Antibodies exist and would prevent any sort of immediate reinfection.
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Lalalaland34501 Posts
Yes, we know that antibodies do what antibodies do. Yet somehow there are alleged cases where people are being reinfected after being cured. If this is true and not just false positive testing, then that needs to be looked into. Theories that jump quickly to mind are quick mutation, or possibly different strains (we already know of two, an L strain and an S strain).
What I do know is that even if someone tests to be antibody positive, you are not suddenly told that you can stop isolating or walk into a covid ward without wearing protection.
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On April 04 2020 20:27 farvacola wrote:
The county I work in has a population of around 400k. As of yesterday, only 730 tests have been performed in the county. Yes, only 730 tests total.
We are nowhere close to having the testing capability we need.
Yeah I'm foreseeing not going down to the states for years at this point, despite living less than an hour from the border.
I'm pretty sure the US has passed the point where they can prevent a 9/11+ death toll every day for weeks now. Infections are just going up linearly with testing capability, and deaths have roughly tripled every week.
They are likely to have confirmed more infections than Spain, Germany, Italy and France combined and confirmed more deaths than Italy by this time next week.
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On April 05 2020 04:22 JimmiC wrote:Yes it is getting worse globally by the day. Yesterday the total new cases of deaths was about 10%of the entire amount of deaths. Today that number is 15%. And it slows no sign of slowing down, only picking up. https://www.bing.com/covid
That is partially do to France doing weird counting stuff. The rest is mostly the US just growing really fast. France alone has had 26000 new cases, and as we discussed in this thread, that is because a lot of these cases are collected from the whole week.
Spain and Italy seem to mostly have stabilized around their current level of new infections and deaths for maybe a week now, Germany is also stabilizing apparently.
France is hard to tell due to the counting weirdness, and the US is clearly in the phase of uncontrolled growth.
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On April 05 2020 04:42 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 04:22 JimmiC wrote:Yes it is getting worse globally by the day. Yesterday the total new cases of deaths was about 10%of the entire amount of deaths. Today that number is 15%. And it slows no sign of slowing down, only picking up. https://www.bing.com/covid That is partially do to France doing weird counting stuff. The rest is mostly the US just growing really fast. France alone has had 26000 new cases, and as we discussed in this thread, that is because a lot of these cases are collected from the whole week. Spain and Italy seem to mostly have stabilized around their current level of new infections and deaths for maybe a week now, Germany is also stabilizing apparently. France is hard to tell due to the counting weirdness, and the US is clearly in the phase of uncontrolled growth.
UK is getting worse also
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EPT
