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On November 07 2018 08:27 Orome wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 08:13 plasmidghost wrote: I wonder how many people's votes were directly influenced by the Kavanaugh debacle. Has any pollster asked that question? Who do you feel it was a debacle for in the public's opinion? I'm not sure, it seems like GOP and Dems were both outraged (GOP because of allegedly false slander, and Dems because women weren't believed)
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On November 07 2018 07:45 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 05:35 ReditusSum wrote:On November 06 2018 21:40 farvacola wrote: Further, the idea that technology and progress has separated people from one another is literally a bunch of loaded bullshit. Then why do studies show a rise in social isolation whilst simultaneously showing no significant rise in loneliness? The easiest answer is that while the apps, games, chatrooms, etc. are all connecting people and fulfilling the one side of social interaction (mitigating loneliness), they are not fulfilling the other side of social interaction, which is physically connecting with other people in common social structures with common social goals. I'm not only talking about Sunday BBQ and sandlot-baseball. Those things are good, and part of the overall idea, but they are over-emphasized when we're talking about the actual fundamentals, which is why I wasn't talking about 1950s nostalgia but specifically said "Church and Town" which goes back much, much further than 1950s. More like 1250. Which is not to say that we should go back to 1250 or that the medieval man didn't have his own problems, just that a sense of "where do I fit into the world?" did not exist and thus was not a problem. And for most of human history, this was true. Say what you want about the caste system, but one of the primary benefits of the caste system is that you always know where you fit into the world and your specific place in society. As we move away from those systems and into the Enlightenment era of democratization we began very slowly stripping away all of those social markers that defined people for the vast, vast majority of our history. Now we've reached a point unimaginable to any previous generations in that a person has basically full control over every aspect of their social life, down to the most minute details. Is this good? Sure. Is this bad? Sure. It's different. It has its upsides and its downsides. I'm having a hard time taking you seriously when 1250 medieval Europe was brutally violent and 90% of people knew where they fit.. Maybe you missed the part where I said:
"This is not to say we should go back to 1250 or that the medieval man didn't have his own problems"
I'm not talking about comparing one and the other on a value basis where we ask which one is better or worse. I'm talking about the fundamental change in how people interact with themselves and the world. Posting a text wall of Freshman level historical analysis of major events from the time period is really irrelevant to that point.
Maybe learn a little bit about history first before you make such comment? Exactly what did I say that is historically inaccurate?
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On November 07 2018 07:32 Liquid`Drone wrote: seeing the first exit polls, this looks good for democrats.
opinion of republican party : 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable democrat : 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable Hmm. Opinion polls strongly favored Clinton too.
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On November 07 2018 08:54 ReditusSum wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 07:32 Liquid`Drone wrote: seeing the first exit polls, this looks good for democrats.
opinion of republican party : 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable democrat : 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable Hmm. Opinion polls strongly favored Clinton too.
Well, exit polling wasn't too far off on her popular vote margin. The state by state results (in states which still haven't closed their polls this election) were the problem.
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On November 07 2018 08:54 ReditusSum wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 07:32 Liquid`Drone wrote: seeing the first exit polls, this looks good for democrats.
opinion of republican party : 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable democrat : 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable Hmm. Opinion polls strongly favored Clinton too. This is correct. But also there is little wisdom is saying “the polls could be wrong.”
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On November 07 2018 08:58 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 08:54 ReditusSum wrote:On November 07 2018 07:32 Liquid`Drone wrote: seeing the first exit polls, this looks good for democrats.
opinion of republican party : 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable democrat : 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable Hmm. Opinion polls strongly favored Clinton too. Well, exit polling wasn't too far off on her popular vote margin. The state by state results (in states which still haven't closed their polls this election) were the problem. True. Plus there is a difference between midterm and presidential.
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Rasmussen were the closest in 2016.Pretty spot on tbh.
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United States42698 Posts
On November 07 2018 08:54 ReditusSum wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 07:32 Liquid`Drone wrote: seeing the first exit polls, this looks good for democrats.
opinion of republican party : 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable democrat : 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable Hmm. Opinion polls strongly favored Clinton too. This is your reminder that the opinion of the people was that Clinton should be president. Just not the opinion of the electoral college.
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Not much so far. Comstock looks like she's out, but she was the most vulnerable Republican.
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On November 07 2018 09:35 ticklishmusic wrote: Not much so far. Comstock looks like she's out, but she was the most vulnerable Republican.
I don't know why Republicans invested so much money into her campaign, she was toast a long time ago. It was a surefire bet if you wanted to earn some easy betting money.
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I can’t take any article serious that calls NPR part of the elite media and claims they are part of propaganda journalism. The author of this peice has an ax to grind and offers few facts, evidence or substance to the discussion. Kotaku has some talented people on their staff that can put together a well rounded argument, but this author isn’t one of them.
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Nothing says "elite media" like endless, annoying donor drives and operating out of basically free university radio stations!
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On November 07 2018 09:52 Plansix wrote:The author of this peice has an ax to grind and offers few facts, evidence or substance to the discussion. Kotaku has some talented people on their staff that can put together a well rounded argument, but this author isn’t one of them. That's fair, but it's just as applicable to the original article. Kotaku can do better than that rant, and NPR can do better than taking a single family's experience and declaring a broad trend.
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fivethirtyeight has republicans as more likely to keep the house than democrats to win it at this point. This is looking pretty rip
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Nate Silver now saying republicans 61% chance to hold house, after predicting 1/7 chance they would.
Literally 2016 all over again.
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And 538 now has Dems with 57.2% chance to take house.
Let's not go overboard with up to the second predictions.
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And let me guess: Democrats win a majority of popular vote, Republicans win a majority of seats in a Congress that's supposed to be decided by population. Nice job America.
User was warned for this post
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538 is fluctuating quite a bit so I'll wait until the day is over, but things aren't standing so pretty for the odds of the Blue Wave tsunami currently. Might be a medium-sized deluge than a wash-out if it stays consistent.
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