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On February 20 2019 17:53 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2019 10:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
Hawaii voting red next term looks like. Lots of people who didn’t care to vote before are now voting Trump for 2020. Impossible. My take on the candidates so far.Sanders is too old.Creepy Joe Biden won’t fly in the #Metoo era.Beto o rourke is the best chance for dems since he is their best chance to take Texas.Gabbard seems decent and her anti war message doesn’t seem phony but she’s not popular with the dem establishment so can’t see her getting anywhere.
Can we not do these Trump style 3 year old esque name calling? throwing around names like "Creepy Joe Biden", "Crooked Hillary", "Sad <insert name here>" does not make a post or poster look very intellectual.
On topic: I can see why some people would be vary of an old person as President, especially considering the track record so far. But his politics is the "youngest" of anyone so far who actually have a shot at becoming one, ie: Very progressive, scientifically minded, and willing to put a lot of effort and upend a lot of anthills to fix what he believes needs to be fixed.
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On February 20 2019 17:53 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2019 10:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
Hawaii voting red next term looks like. Lots of people who didn’t care to vote before are now voting Trump for 2020. Impossible. My take on the candidates so far.Sanders is too old.Creepy Joe Biden won’t fly in the #Metoo era.Beto o rourke is the best chance for dems since he is their best chance to take Texas.Gabbard seems decent and her anti war message doesn’t seem phony but she’s not popular with the dem establishment so can’t see her getting anywhere.
I agree with you that Beto is probably more likely to somehow flip Texas blue (however rare that might be) than any other Dem, but do you really think that a Dem victory hinges on that condition rather than the universal "flip more swing states to win"? If so, why?
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On February 20 2019 19:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2019 17:53 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On February 20 2019 10:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
Hawaii voting red next term looks like. Lots of people who didn’t care to vote before are now voting Trump for 2020. Impossible. My take on the candidates so far.Sanders is too old.Creepy Joe Biden won’t fly in the #Metoo era.Beto o rourke is the best chance for dems since he is their best chance to take Texas.Gabbard seems decent and her anti war message doesn’t seem phony but she’s not popular with the dem establishment so can’t see her getting anywhere. I agree with you that Beto is probably more likely to somehow flip Texas blue (however rare that might be) than any other Dem, but do you really think that a Dem victory hinges on that condition rather than the universal "flip more swing states to win"? If so, why? Swing states went to Trump in 2016 and he is perfect so they will vote for him again in 2020. Ergo Democrats have already lost unless they can swing Texas blue.
Its crap but that's been the logic we have seen for the last couple of years.
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On February 20 2019 13:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:
That, and many future democrats here in FL just turned 18. The Miami Herald did a good report recently about how after Parkland shooting, there have already been an extra 1200 young gun deaths. A lot of the young people are looking to push gun reform. Especially when FL seems to have a ton of gun issues in general.
But will those young people vote? Historically they do not and will not. We don't even need any new bodies that just turned 18. Just for more of the <35 crowd to actually show up and vote.
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After the NYT publisher told the president a month ago that calling the press the enemy of the people endangers reporters, Trump just called the NYT the Enemy of the People for the story they just published. This isn’t shocking, but depressing that we will have to clean up the mess he has created once he is out of office.
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I'd be more curious about the effects of the felon voting restoration in Florida than the youth vote, personally. If it gets implemented smoothly at least.
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florida and smooth voting are two mutually exclusive concepts. i don’t know if there’s a more meme-able state, though the fuckery in NC is trying its best.
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On February 20 2019 21:58 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2019 13:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:
That, and many future democrats here in FL just turned 18. The Miami Herald did a good report recently about how after Parkland shooting, there have already been an extra 1200 young gun deaths. A lot of the young people are looking to push gun reform. Especially when FL seems to have a ton of gun issues in general. But will those young people vote? Historically they do not and will not. We don't even need any new bodies that just turned 18. Just for more of the <35 crowd to actually show up and vote. Didn't the mid-terms see an increase in turnout for young voters?
I don't think its stretching to say that the pattern will extend into 2020. Trump is uniquely bad and increasing turnouts against him as a result.
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On February 20 2019 23:37 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2019 21:58 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On February 20 2019 13:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:
That, and many future democrats here in FL just turned 18. The Miami Herald did a good report recently about how after Parkland shooting, there have already been an extra 1200 young gun deaths. A lot of the young people are looking to push gun reform. Especially when FL seems to have a ton of gun issues in general. But will those young people vote? Historically they do not and will not. We don't even need any new bodies that just turned 18. Just for more of the <35 crowd to actually show up and vote. Didn't the mid-terms see an increase in turnout for young voters? I don't think its stretching to say that the pattern will extend into 2020. Trump is uniquely bad and increasing turnouts against him as a result.
Yes. It was a very big increase. I’ve seen a lot of reporting that early voting increases young voter turnout by quite a bit. And of course, there is the state of politics as well.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/youth-turnout-midterm-2018/575092/
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The Supreme Court did a good thing today and held that the excessive fines clause of the 8th Amendment is incorporated under the 14th and thus is applicable against the states. While this is only a small step towards getting civil forfeiture nonsense under control, it’s nice to see nonetheless 
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On February 21 2019 00:20 JimmiC wrote:
It will be interesting to see if they are trying to get land for the wall by the time of the election. If so Texas and Zona might flip blue. Everything I have read it is very unpopular their even with the long term registered republicans.
Especially given it's history as it didn't work for Truman. Then there is the matter of who is going to enforce the imminent domains for the wall. Is Trump going to use the Military on the border right now to enforce it and help construct said wall? The first photo of the military taking people from their homes for the wall is Pulitzer material and will then be a PR disaster for the military that is already facing recruiting shortages.
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On February 21 2019 00:50 JimmiC wrote:
Also NC has not been talked about much here. Is anything going to come from admitting that she wrote in ballots? This has to be election fraud no?
Keep in mind we're the state that had our voting districts ruled unconstitutional in 2011 and were still in use when we voted last time. The idea that anything will happen is a believe it when it happens sort of thing for me.
It's already been ruled as election fraud. The question is who is held accountable and how they are.
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NC is a deeply dysfunctional state and will need more than court rulings to cure the rot. Direct intervention and DOJ oversight is the only way elections improve.
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On February 21 2019 00:52 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2019 00:50 JimmiC wrote:
Also NC has not been talked about much here. Is anything going to come from admitting that she wrote in ballots? This has to be election fraud no? Keep in mind we're the state that had our voting districts ruled unconstitutional in 2011 and were still in use when we voted last time. The idea that anything will happen is a believe it when it happens sort of thing for me. Because court cases are long processes and the courts only reached a verdict a few weeks before the 2018 elections when there wasn't time to change anything?
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On February 21 2019 00:55 Plansix wrote:
NC is a deeply dysfunctional state and will need more than court rulings to cure the rot. Direct intervention and DOJ oversight is the only way elections improve.
I think NC is trending blue quite hard. Cooper has a very good approval rating, the supreme court has an overwhelming Democratic majority (the ratfuckery that backfired here is pretty hilarious). The Republican hold on the legislature has been weakening, and if they un-fuck the gerrymander a little, I could see them losing that in the next couple cycles. It seems like the people of NC are just tired of the Republicans.
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On February 20 2019 21:58 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2019 13:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:
That, and many future democrats here in FL just turned 18. The Miami Herald did a good report recently about how after Parkland shooting, there have already been an extra 1200 young gun deaths. A lot of the young people are looking to push gun reform. Especially when FL seems to have a ton of gun issues in general. But will those young people vote? Historically they do not and will not. We don't even need any new bodies that just turned 18. Just for more of the <35 crowd to actually show up and vote.
There is a very large incentive for young people here in FL to vote. They're done with school shootings, especially after Parkland, it only added fuel to the flame when they talked about letting teachers have guns. The Miami Herald is a well reputable source in South FL, it has it's ups and downs, but I think they do a decent job at showing the picture of what's going on here with our young voters.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article221140900.html
My nephew voted for the first time at 19 years old in 2018, wasn't old enough for 2016 just yet. It was great hearing him talk about it, and how the process was "pretty cool". We require ID's to vote here, which I'm not against, but definitely has it's cons when you want to easily deny people from voting (has happened to me).
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On February 21 2019 00:58 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2019 00:52 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On February 21 2019 00:50 JimmiC wrote:
Also NC has not been talked about much here. Is anything going to come from admitting that she wrote in ballots? This has to be election fraud no? Keep in mind we're the state that had our voting districts ruled unconstitutional in 2011 and were still in use when we voted last time. The idea that anything will happen is a believe it when it happens sort of thing for me. Because court cases are long processes and the courts only reached a verdict a few weeks before the 2018 elections when there wasn't time to change anything?
There was plenty of time to fix the problem between 2011 and 2018. The fact that the courts move slowly and allow them to redraw unconstitutional districts multiple times is why there is so much voter apathy among young people. There wasn't time to change anything because the system is designed so that no changes can happen.
On February 21 2019 01:05 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2019 00:55 Plansix wrote:
NC is a deeply dysfunctional state and will need more than court rulings to cure the rot. Direct intervention and DOJ oversight is the only way elections improve. I think NC is trending blue quite hard. Cooper has a very good approval rating, the supreme court has an overwhelming Democratic majority (the ratfuckery that backfired here is pretty hilarious). The Republican hold on the legislature has been weakening, and if they un-fuck the gerrymander a little, I could see them losing that in the next couple cycles. It seems like the people of NC are just tired of the Republicans.
Just in the liberal strongholds like Charlotte and Raleigh. There's plenty of farmland between the big cities and the Republicans will do absolutely anything to hold onto power here. There is analysis out there that the house will flip from 10-3 to a huge Democrat edge as the blue wave cuts away the slim margins holding gerrymandering together, but that is when the districts will be redrawn so it doesn't hurt the Republicans as much and they'll end up with the six or seven seats they should have.
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CNN is reporting that the Mueller report has all but been completed, and could be submitted as soon as next week. Not holding my breath but next week could prove quite interesting if it indeed is released and the Admin buries it. Which media outlet will it be leaked to first I wonder.
Or this could be the result of Trump finally having a loyal AG and firing Mueller and ending the investigation.
Washington (CNN) Attorney General Bill Barr is preparing to announce as early as next week the completion of Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, with plans for Barr to submit to Congress soon after a summary of Mueller's confidential report, according to people familiar with the plans.
The preparations are the clearest indication yet that Mueller is nearly done with his almost two-year investigation.
The precise timing of the announcement is subject to change.
The scope and contours of what Barr will send to Congress remain unclear. Also unclear is how long it will take Justice officials to prepare what will be submitted to lawmakers.
But with President Donald Trump soon to travel overseas for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Justice officials are mindful of not interfering with the White House's diplomatic efforts, which could impact the timing.
The Justice Department and the special counsel's office declined to comment.
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