EPT
As match up balance sways quite a bit between different skill levels, but I also wanted to not overly limit the sample size, I decided to look at only stats of 284 935 games played at 2200 MMR or above with over a minute in length. I would love to filter for 2300MMR+ but that means some of the match ups on the more often vetoed (read: Roaring Currents) drop to below 100 games and become less statistically significant.
The results:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/lnEPAHf.png)
If anything sticks out, it's definitely the abysmal PvT stats of Litmus. A two-player map that doesn't allow gas stealing, with the most direct and narrow push path straight to your opponent's natural is a PvT nightmare.
Now, this is not supposed to a total authority on actual map balance. As we mentioned before, certain mechanics / metas / layouts affect people differently at different skill levels. It doesn't surprise anyone that the skill gap between an average 2300 MMR player and a Pro is still enormous, and that difference in execution and knowledge can significantly skew how a certain map affects a matchup. ELOBoard, though limited in sample size for newer maps, still has the best reflection of pro-level map balance
If anything, these stats show that this difference in skill level still has a very pronounced effect on typical match up results between Pro/Semi-Pro level and S-rank level.
To illustrate this, lets take a look at PvT on Metropolis as an example. In ladder stats Protoss actually does quite decently on this map with a 48.9% winrate. However, at the pro-level, this is actually one of the most Terran-favored maps according to ELOBoard stats with an abysmal 41.4% winrate for Protoss:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/RYr0wP4.png)
This gets confirmed by what the pros have been saying in streams and picking/veto'ing in ASLs about PvT on Metropolis.
I was a bit hesitant to post this because I don't really like fueling all the matchup balance copium that goes around our community on a daily basis, even at D-rank level. I already have an idea of what to investigate next with the dataset I have available now, and expect it to have a more concrete conclusion/outcome. Feel free to drop ideas on what you would think would be interesting to look at.
Finally, I want to give a big shoutout to icza from repmastered.net for providing me access to the necessary dataset. Please support him through one of many ways to donate to repmastered.net. He makes amazing tools for the BW community and deserves more recognition.
