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Please guys, stay on topic. This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. | ||
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ImFromPortugal
Portugal1368 Posts
On February 15 2016 18:23 zeo wrote: Nah, Turkey can't call on article 5 if they invade another country. I still don't think Erdogan is stupid enough to go for it. i think they have the means to go into syria and change the tide at least against the regime | ||
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ImFromPortugal
Portugal1368 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
Poland is ready to send four F-16 fighter planes to patrol over Syria, a senior security official has said. i don't even... "There is such a declaration on our part - that we are ready to participate in monitoring patrols and we have said four of our planes are available," Paweł Soloch, the head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, told public broadcaster Polish Radio on Monday. Soloch added that "for the time being there is no question of sending [Polish] troops" to Syria. Soloch said there was no “barter” deal to send Polish F-16s to patrol over Syria in exchange for NATO beefing up its eastern flank. But he added that Polish President Andrzej Duda had spoken about Poland’s involvement in international measures against the so-called Islamic State as "an expression of solidarity with the rest of our allies." | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4769 Posts
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zeo
Serbia6343 Posts
On February 15 2016 18:41 ImFromPortugal wrote: i think they have the means to go into syria and change the tide at least against the regime Their goal is to establish control over that strip of land between the two Kurdish entities and to reopen supply routes between ISIS and the other insurgents. Something like this: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/95BPaM2.jpg) Now if Turkey does go through with this, there are multiple ways this can play out and none of them will result in a WW3. In any case Turkey's and the Saudi airforce full of export model planes will be annihilated if Russia choses to do so, its not even up for debate. The next point depends on how serious their troop and armour deployment is. Turkey won't be fighting ISIS or the other groups so I highly doubt that the Syrian Army + Kurds have the manpower and equipment to push them out even with non-stop Russian bombing raids on Turkish positions. So if Turkey gets a foothold and doesn't get pushed out immediately this war just gets 2-3 years longer. Insurgents are leaving en mass since their supply corridor was cut which is evident by the mass of young men, some of them still carrying their guns building up on the Turkish border. Every single major population center save for Raqqah and 40% of Aleppo and parts of Daara is under the control of the Syrian government, and there is no way the Syrian people would just surrender to foreign invaders after 5 years of war. 80% of the population as well as 4 million internally displaced don't want the Jihadists and Turks there and there so there is no way a Turkish and Saudi invasion will achieve anything in regards to the government of Syria. If their plan is to just break the ISIS part of the country off and have the oil corridor under a 'UN protectorate' thats actually plausible. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
On February 15 2016 19:30 Silvanel wrote: Patrol yeah.....last thing we need is our fighters getting involved in some skirmish against Russians -who else would they "patrol" against? -Turks? at least nominaly they are our NATO ally. And ISIS dont have airforce. WTF we dont need to get involved. If thats the price for increased NATO presence in Poland that not a good trade. there's no one patrolling over Syria now and Syria is not your NATO ally. you should be patrolling over Turkey?; you don't patrol against something because patrolling is at best a deterrent/defensive move?. maybe the translation went bad or something. | ||
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trulojucreathrma.com
United States327 Posts
Putin has such a big mouth because he thinks Russia is weak. Bombing IS tents and trucks is completely different from having a war with a top10 military power that has a western modern air force. IS is IS 2.0. Saudi Arabia is IS 1.0. If Saudi invades to destroy IS(read: undermine Iran), that isn't an improvement even if it means an outlook for peace (which it does not). | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On February 15 2016 19:38 trulojucreathrma.com wrote: Ignoring nukes, Turkey and Saudi together have more military power than Russia. That's a joke right? By what metric do they have more military power? | ||
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Sent.
Poland9331 Posts
On February 15 2016 19:36 xM(Z wrote: there's no one patrolling over Syria now and Syria is not your NATO ally. you should be patrolling over Turkey?; you don't patrol against something because patrolling is at best a deterrent/defensive move?. maybe the translation went bad or something. I checked the source in Polish and there was no mistake in the translation. I think that in the context of what our defence minister said few days ago the message is supposed to mean "we want to bomb (or just fly above) ISIS too". Nobody said anything about fighting Assad or helping Turkey in intercepting Russian jets. PS: Polan stronk! Notice us pls | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18430 Posts
On February 15 2016 19:48 Dangermousecatdog wrote: That's a joke right? By what metric do they have more military power? I think he meant in the region. And that's probably true. Russia would have serious logistic issues if it tries to ramp up its presence. Edit: but I believe the comparison is false. If Saudi Arabia gets directly involved, Iran would respond with an increased presence. And they have no such logistic issues. | ||
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zeo
Serbia6343 Posts
On February 15 2016 19:38 trulojucreathrma.com wrote: Ignoring nukes, Turkey and Saudi together have more military power than Russia. Also, they are actually waging war in their own back-yard. The Russian army also has to patrol borders on the other side of the planet. Putin has such a big mouth because he thinks Russia is weak. Bombing IS tents and trucks is completely different from having a war with a top10 military power that has a western modern air force. Turkey and Saudi together have more military power than Russia Are you for real? The Saudi army is one of the most hilarious things I have ever seen. A young footsoldier can tell an experienced general what to do because his family has a higher standing in their tribe. They don't know how to use their own equipment, don't know how to supply their own men and have to bring in foreigners to run their operations in Yemen. They are fighting barefoot sheep herders and some days there is a constant stream of videos of Abrams destroyed/on fire. They were so incompetent that they pulled all their forces back and sent Columbian and Sudani mercs in. And they are still losing ground, getting towns 20km into Saudi territory occupied by people who literally don't wear shoes. They've sunk 3 ships without a navy for crying out loud. Here's the thing with the Middle East, they have shit tier armies, maybe not in equipment, but in personnel. Arab dictators are so scared of a military coup that they never want actual competent people running their armies and use their army more as a policing force to suppress opposition, be they democratic or jihadist. Which is why Assad's army lost so much ground to rebels, why Gaddafi fell and Libya is a non state now. All the other armies were shit too, not just Saddam Husein but every other Arab country in the last 50 years. Remember, Erdogan has been on a crusade against the influence of Turkeys military on domestic issues since he came to power, arresting high ranking military generals and replacing them with yes men. He is just as scared of his own military as all the other Arab dictators are. The Turks could do something competent, but the Saudi's are a meme army and thats an understatement. | ||
Nixer
2774 Posts
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zion
Belgium31 Posts
On February 15 2016 17:37 xM(Z wrote: the green(N and S of Aleppo) is all rebels Nusra, Quaeda, Ahrar ash-Sham @co; the western side with no colors is Turkey so from Idlib you go west through Turkey then around the kurds into Azaz and Tal Rifaat. so yea they dodged the kurds. So why i asked was, because tal rafit, has kurdish on the left . So basicly turkey let them go there, to fight the kurds / and the syrian goverment ? " PKK continue their attacks on rebels at the perimeters of Azaz and Tal Rifaat and attempt to cut the road between the 2 towns at Kaljibrin " Do the kurds also fight against the syrian goverment there ? | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
So basicly turkey let them go there, to fight the kurds / and the syrian goverment ? yes, to fight both. about the kurdish thing - Turkey considers them terrorists(YPG=PYD=syrian kurds but Turkey also links them with PKK(kurdish terrorist organization operating in Turkey)) but US doesn't and it even armed them earlier in this conflict. it's why US will not interfere against the syrian kurds. Do the kurds also fight against the syrian goverment there ? nope they don't. russians helps them with air strikes but they're not allies per say. if i were to describe the situation - both parties found common ground and are working together because it best serves their interests. | ||
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Nixer
2774 Posts
On February 15 2016 21:24 zion wrote: So why i asked was, because tal rafit, has kurdish on the left . So basicly turkey let them go there, to fight the kurds / and the syrian goverment ? " PKK continue their attacks on rebels at the perimeters of Azaz and Tal Rifaat and attempt to cut the road between the 2 towns at Kaljibrin " Do the kurds also fight against the syrian goverment there ? I'm presuming you're talking about the Rebel forces' pocket of territory which is now dwindling even with the help of Turkish forces after it got isolated by the Syrian army's territorial advancements earlier this month. And yes Turkey did let them pass through Turkey to the now cut off region from NW Syria. | ||
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ImFromPortugal
Portugal1368 Posts
On February 15 2016 19:32 zeo wrote: Their goal is to establish control over that strip of land between the two Kurdish entities and to reopen supply routes between ISIS and the other insurgents. Something like this: Now if Turkey does go through with this, there are multiple ways this can play out and none of them will result in a WW3. In any case Turkey's and the Saudi airforce full of export model planes will be annihilated if Russia choses to do so, its not even up for debate. The next point depends on how serious their troop and armour deployment is. Turkey won't be fighting ISIS or the other groups so I highly doubt that the Syrian Army + Kurds have the manpower and equipment to push them out even with non-stop Russian bombing raids on Turkish positions. So if Turkey gets a foothold and doesn't get pushed out immediately this war just gets 2-3 years longer. Insurgents are leaving en mass since their supply corridor was cut which is evident by the mass of young men, some of them still carrying their guns building up on the Turkish border. Every single major population center save for Raqqah and 40% of Aleppo and parts of Daara is under the control of the Syrian government, and there is no way the Syrian people would just surrender to foreign invaders after 5 years of war. 80% of the population as well as 4 million internally displaced don't want the Jihadists and Turks there and there so there is no way a Turkish and Saudi invasion will achieve anything in regards to the government of Syria. If their plan is to just break the ISIS part of the country off and have the oil corridor under a 'UN protectorate' thats actually plausible. THe russian assets in the region would be destroyed, the turks have enough to do that and with the help of the saudi airforce it would be hard for the russians with what they have there right now to stop them. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
so it's Turkey+their rebels vs Russia+Assad. Edit: if you're into them wars scenarios read on the wikileaks cable on US State Department cables released by WikiLeaks have unveiled secret NATO plans for a US-led war against Russia over the Baltic states.+ Show Spoiler + The secret plans spell out preparations for a full-scale war with Russia that would see the immediate deployment of nine divisions of US, British, German and Polish troops in the event of any Russian incursion into the former Soviet Baltic republics. The plans also specify German and Polish ports that would be used to receive naval assault units and US and British warships destined for battle with Russian forces. Despite these details, there is no indication in the cables of the potentially catastrophic implications of such an armed clash between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. While some analysts in Moscow insisted that Russian intelligence was well aware of the contingency plans, their public exposure by WikiLeaks prompted statements of protest by Russian officials and demands for an explanation from NATO. Key Findings As Presently Postured, NATO Cannot Successfully Defend the Territory of its Most Exposed Members Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants in and out of uniform playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours. Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad. one can easily find more war scenarios in google but they are just that - scenarios and war games on paper. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11964 Posts
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zeo
Serbia6343 Posts
On February 15 2016 21:49 ImFromPortugal wrote: THe russian assets in the region would be destroyed, the turks have enough to do that and with the help of the saudi airforce it would be hard for the russians with what they have there right now to stop them. I think you don't understand that Turkish planes won't even make it to the anti-air missiles, and even then the Russians have jamming equipment that can disable all NATO electronics within a 600km radius. They will be sitting ducks for eveyone, let alone an SU-35. What can cause WW3 though is if the RC-135 and other high altitude spy and electronic warfare planes the US has deployed around Syria start counter jamming Russian tech to help Turkey. Maybe if they can shut down the jamming equipment the turks could just throw bodies (planes) at them and hope for the best. But without the Americans fully on board the Turkish airforce can do nothing. edit: Wonder what will happen when the Russians shoot an S-400 at that American spy plane to stop the jamming? Thats crazy, the US won't risk helping Erdogan of all people. | ||
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lord_nibbler
Germany591 Posts
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