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NBA Playoffs 2012 - Page 301

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Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
June 19 2012 12:40 GMT
#6001
On June 19 2012 21:34 x2fst wrote:
Show nested quote +
FT EV (actual) for the first 3 games based on who shot how many and reg season FT%:

OKC
1: 22.6 (20)
2: 21.4 (19)
3: 18.8 (15)

MIA
1: 13.8 (14)
2: 18.9 (22)
3: 26.6 (31)

Total swing to Miami each game
1: +2.8
2: +5.5
3: +8.2


copied from elsewhere


i must be noob but i don't understand those numbers. they are not %s? bit confused
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
Malaz
Profile Joined January 2011
Germany1257 Posts
June 19 2012 12:42 GMT
#6002
As someone who likes to follow this thread and hardly ever posts, I found the discussion about new posters on the last pages interesting. I know I'm not as knowledgeable about basketball than most of the regular posters in this thread. That's the only reason I'm not posting more myself, as I often times don't think I have something to contribute to the discussion. I learned quite a lot about basketball by just reading this thread so that's fine with me
Maybe I'll try to get involved in discussions next season.

My uneducated guess for game 4: Okc wins and ties the series. At least that's what I hope for.
sidesprang
Profile Joined January 2009
Norway1033 Posts
June 19 2012 12:49 GMT
#6003
On June 19 2012 21:40 Doraemon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 19 2012 21:34 x2fst wrote:
FT EV (actual) for the first 3 games based on who shot how many and reg season FT%:

OKC
1: 22.6 (20)
2: 21.4 (19)
3: 18.8 (15)

MIA
1: 13.8 (14)
2: 18.9 (22)
3: 26.6 (31)

Total swing to Miami each game
1: +2.8
2: +5.5
3: +8.2


copied from elsewhere


i must be noob but i don't understand those numbers. they are not %s? bit confused


Its how many more points they got than they would have gotten if you used the FT% from the regular season. Atleast that is how I see it.
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
June 19 2012 12:52 GMT
#6004
ah ok. not sure i missed the interpretation. thanks
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
x2fst
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
1272 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-19 13:14:11
June 19 2012 13:13 GMT
#6005
combine that with the fact that okc have actually scored 1 more pt in the 3 games so far it's arguable that they're having a better series and are simply victims of variance. not rare at all in the nba of course

you could also pt to 3pt% ev, which looks like this:

okc 18/60 so far for 54pts, adjusted for shooter's reg season %s they could expect 67pts, for a differential of -12
heat 18/44 so far for 54 pts, adjusted for shooter's reg season %s they could expect 49pts, for a differential of +10
total swing is +22 heat's favour

not as solid as the ft ev calc since shot quality matters a lot. but interesting, especially battier who is 11/15 after shooting 34% during the reg season
muda, is a crime for me to wear a shirt, cos I is so good lookin
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
June 19 2012 14:07 GMT
#6006
That is pretty good. Even more interesting is OKC has shot 60! 3 pointers so far. Holy crap I REALLY missed that. I'm guessing they game planned for Miami being weak to 3 pointers in their defense and tried to capitalize on it. Not a bad plan at all.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Zorkmid
Profile Joined November 2008
4410 Posts
June 19 2012 16:40 GMT
#6007
As Sam Mitchell might say, OKC just ain't hittin' shats.
MassHysteria
Profile Joined October 2010
United States3678 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-19 17:00:19
June 19 2012 16:56 GMT
#6008
Has OKC tried putting in Durant at the 4 yet in this series? I haven't watched most of the games like I have said but am wondering how it has looked or if it something that they are really considering (I think I heard Arnovitz on radio about it)? What you guys think of that and who should be the 5? ibaka? I kind of like that lineup versus the heat.

edit: lineup being: westbrook, sefalosha, harden, durant, and Ibaka (or Collison I guess)
"Just ban all the J's...even jinklejoes" --unnamed source
Holcan
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada2593 Posts
June 19 2012 20:36 GMT
#6009
size is okcs one advantage, I don't see why they would give that up, and play small ball allowing miami to matchup chalmers, wade, battier, lebron, bosh, their best lineup so far this series. even if ibaka guards bosh, he is still standing a good few feet away from the rim, negating his defensive effectiveness a large amount. not to mention bosh would be able to take ibaka one on one almost every possesion, as he isn't really that good as a straight up defender. also their offense with perk and nick collison setting screens is much better than the ibala pick and pop offense we ser run through him.


I just don't see why you would go to miamis gameplan, when miami has been doing it all year while okc hasn't, and okcs regular gameplan isn't terrible to begin with.
Reference The Inadvertant Joey, Strong talented orchastrasted intelligent character.
XaI)CyRiC
Profile Joined October 2002
United States4471 Posts
June 19 2012 20:56 GMT
#6010
It's a bit concerning that OKC is struggling to protect the paint. MIA was getting right to the rim over and over in the last game from what I saw, which shouldn't happen with a frontline that includes Perkins and Ibaka. I feel like they need to play Ibaka more because he's the one who has the potential to play the Chandler-like defense that frustrated the Heat last season, i.e. mobile big who can stay in front of and challenge Lebron and Wade at the rim. Give up that Bosh perimeter jumper if you have to, but they have to prevent points in the paint first and foremost.

On offense, the Thunder need to react quicker and more decisively. Too much hesitation/ball-stopping and ISO against a team that can actually match up one on one decently with the OKC big 3.
Moderator
XaI)CyRiC
Profile Joined October 2002
United States4471 Posts
June 19 2012 21:06 GMT
#6011
By the way, it can't be understated that OKC would arguably have won games 2 and 3 if they had just shot their FTs like they have all season long. OKC's inability to hit FTs is the one thing that I don't think anyone could have predicted would play a major role in this series.
Moderator
XaI)CyRiC
Profile Joined October 2002
United States4471 Posts
June 19 2012 21:10 GMT
#6012
Sorry for breaking apart these posts, but I also just realized a reason why I would love it if the Heat win the championship this year that I had totally forgotten and lost track of: Dan Gilbert. I hate that guy and would love to see Lebron make Gilbert eat his words about winning a ring before Lebron does.
Moderator
thuracine
Profile Joined February 2012
United States582 Posts
June 19 2012 21:16 GMT
#6013
On June 20 2012 05:36 Holcan wrote:
size is okcs one advantage, I don't see why they would give that up, and play small ball allowing miami to matchup chalmers, wade, battier, lebron, bosh, their best lineup so far this series. even if ibaka guards bosh, he is still standing a good few feet away from the rim, negating his defensive effectiveness a large amount. not to mention bosh would be able to take ibaka one on one almost every possesion, as he isn't really that good as a straight up defender. also their offense with perk and nick collison setting screens is much better than the ibala pick and pop offense we ser run through him.


I just don't see why you would go to miamis gameplan, when miami has been doing it all year while okc hasn't, and okcs regular gameplan isn't terrible to begin with.


They have been using a small lineup with Durant at the 4 to some success in both the spurs and heat seriers.
Holcan
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada2593 Posts
June 19 2012 21:20 GMT
#6014
ibaka is no where close to chandler defensively, no where even close. he is a superb help defender, sure, but he is pretty bad at defending his own man. I don't see him having the lateral speed to keep up with lbj, he'll get into foul trouble if he tries to square up. he is best doing what he does, leave his man to try and get a swat at the rim. of course, this is leading to battiers insane three point percentage, and if you asked me if I'd rather be beat by battier threes or a bosh mid game, I'd take the threes. that much space for bosh is either a foul at the rim, or a high percentage midrange.
Reference The Inadvertant Joey, Strong talented orchastrasted intelligent character.
thuracine
Profile Joined February 2012
United States582 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-06-19 22:06:33
June 19 2012 22:03 GMT
#6015
Can LBJ keep up this energy? Averaging almost 43 minutes a game this playoffs, can he avoid running out of gas like a last year and finish off the Thunder.
TieN.nS)
Profile Joined August 2003
United States2131 Posts
June 19 2012 22:14 GMT
#6016
Nardwuar meets Metta World Peace:
Irave
Profile Joined October 2010
United States9965 Posts
June 19 2012 22:38 GMT
#6017
Tonight is the night the Heat up the lead to 3-1! Once more the game will be shown on espn3.
Chunhyang
Profile Joined December 2011
Bangladesh1389 Posts
June 19 2012 22:55 GMT
#6018
I love the Heat. But rumors of the Thunder's demise...they may be tad overblown, IMO.
If you could reason with haters, there would be no haters. YGTMYFT
Aerisky
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States12129 Posts
June 19 2012 23:44 GMT
#6019
Let's go heat yo! And yeah, reports of OKC's failure are greatly exaggerated, going to get very tough today as they really don't want to be starting at two elimination games in the finals.
Jim while Johnny had had had had had had had; had had had had the better effect on the teacher.
XaI)CyRiC
Profile Joined October 2002
United States4471 Posts
June 19 2012 23:46 GMT
#6020
On June 20 2012 06:20 Holcan wrote:
ibaka is no where close to chandler defensively, no where even close. he is a superb help defender, sure, but he is pretty bad at defending his own man. I don't see him having the lateral speed to keep up with lbj, he'll get into foul trouble if he tries to square up. he is best doing what he does, leave his man to try and get a swat at the rim. of course, this is leading to battiers insane three point percentage, and if you asked me if I'd rather be beat by battier threes or a bosh mid game, I'd take the threes. that much space for bosh is either a foul at the rim, or a high percentage midrange.


Obviously Ibaka is no Chandler defensively, particulary in terms of on-ball defense, but he does have the potential to be the rim-protecting mobile big that is key to slowing down Lebron and Wade. I would never suggest that Ibaka guard Lebron straight up or even be assigned to him, but he could lay off of Haslem/Bosh a bit to help protect the paint against Lebron and Wade drives. His shotblocking and quickness would make him better suited to that role than Collison or Perkins, or many of the other bigs in the league, in my opinion because he can actually challenge them at the basket and is mobile enough to rotate and help on Lebron/Wade drives.

Perkins and Collison have great post defense and are good at taking charges, but neither of that is very useful against the Heat who have no post-up bigs and have Lebron and Wade who are great at avoiding charges and/or almost never get called for them. Put Ibaka out there with Durant at PF to prevent/limit drives to the basket by Lebron and Wade, and live with Bosh getting his. It's not all that different than Dallas putting Chandler and Dirk out together last season.
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