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Trying to statistically determine who's S-class and who's not seems silly to me. Percentages matter less when you fail in the important games - look at Leta, he might have great numbers, but if you fail against the best / never do much in individual leagues you can't be s-class...
+ Show Spoiler [gom spoiler] +And wtf, i'm still baffled at how people say Flash > Fantasy, despite Flash crumbling hard on all scenes except Gom in the last months. And seriously, winning Gom when his strongest opponents were Shuttle, a July that wasn't training due to personal problems and Iris isn't that impressive. On the other hand, Fantasy was a key player in SKT1's winning campaign, managed to constantly get very far in individual leagues and generally seemed a lot more solid than Flash, who seems to have periodic meltdowns.
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LOL fantasy s class tvz.
But heres some more complete stats from ygosu
Seashield is 60% TvT, 56.4 TvP and 64.6 TvZ(2nd highest TvZ still playing ,but he has alot more games played than Flash and only a slightly lower %), but you have consider like a good portion of his TvP loses are to stork and free. (edit boxer is at 64.9 so sea is third, but yea different eras)
Free is 61.7% vs Zerg and like 57.2% vs Terran.
Nada is also like 60% or above in every MU, except like TvT wheres hes 59.something, but obviously alot of those matches are versus old timers.
Iris @ 58.9 vs T.55.9 vP and 59.1 vs Z.
And Jangbis PvZ is lackluster and padded vs like yarnc the only good zerg he ever beat was a fledgling effort. Strange cause his mechanics are so good and his harrass is bisu like, but he just isnt that good pvz.
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United States47024 Posts
On August 17 2009 07:58 okum wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2009 07:22 FabledIntegral wrote:
I really dislike how you seemingly just came up with an abitrary definition of 60% win rate. There are a lot of factors to include. I know you said it was just a rough arbitrary number, but I don't think you can place numbers on these at ALL. If I make a list of players sorted by their win rate in a given matchup, it will correspond fairly well to how I would rank their skills subjectively. If I draw the line between the players I consider S-class and not S-class, that line ends up somewhere around 60%. Sure, there are many factors involved, but skill strongly correlates with win rate (I disagree about not being able to place numbers on this at all). The justification is that the difference between being a 55% and 65% player really is huge, and not an arbitrary fluke. As I said, I'd be interested in quantifying this difference based on the players' win rate distribution, but I can't be arsed to write a TLPD scraper (let alone copy stats by hand). There are better ways to quantify skill than using such a crude measure as the total win rate; the win rate is mainly interesting because it's such a simple and convenient statistic.
Again, the problem is that this arbitrarily skews in favor of players with long careers.
At this point, it seems the best way to do this is to do 1-per-race or 1-per-matchup. Otherwise, people start trying to cram their in their favorite player(sorry, but Jangbi isn't S-class, and Stork is only potentially S-class in PvT).
This gets us somewhere along the lines of:
Jaedong: ZvEverything (Effort's ZvP statistics and YArnc's ZvT statistics may be better, but given that JD performs better by far in BoX sets, it's not really close)
Bisu: PvEverything (PvZ is not close; the only person that could really contend his PvP and PvT is Stork, and Stork has been playing terribly for quite a while now)
Flash: TvT, TvZ (No real contenders for these, Skyhigh and Leta haven't shown themselves to be competitive in BoX games, and Fantasy just isn't there yet)
Tossup: Flash/Fantasy TvP - this one's hard to judge. Flash has the better statistics, but that has largely to do with the fact that he's been good for longer, and so his recent games dampen the effect of losses toward the beginning of his career. Fantasy has played less half the games Flash has. By current play, I'd like to say Fantasy could take this matchup, but I will admit I have some bias in this.
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Fantasy has been showing absolutely amazing TvP lately. It's hard to tell because Flash has not played many TvP's lately, but I'd still give the edge to Fantasy (I say this as a disgustingly huge Flash fanboy). P has been having such a tough time lately that it's hard to judge.
Next PL/SL season should be really fun to following, so many people stepping up their games. I can't wait for some new maps 
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beating ppl BoX should be the gold standard
it shows ur consistency to get to the later stages and the mental fortitude to play mind games and overcome adversity
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On August 17 2009 08:00 Djabanete wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2009 07:35 GreEny K wrote:On August 16 2009 21:59 Ver wrote:
You can't do this by stats though. i,e
Leta is not S class in anything.
Fantasy is S class TvZ.
If you go by stats you have people like Leta/Skyhigh grouped with Fantasy lol.
Basically it's pretty obvious when someone is S class overall (the top 5) or has an S class matchup (Yarnc/July). Kinda like being a bonjwa. You just are. Are you kidding me?? When Leta wins he absolutely DESTROYS his opponents, its not even close and he just abuses them. When he loses he gets demolished and doesnt do a single thing right though. BUT his TVT and TVZ are by far S class!!!! Like someone already said 6-7 against JD?! Yeah ok thats not S class. I think beating JD once should make you a fucking mogul in the eyes of any SC fan. Leta is not 6-7 against JD. 6-7 is a record I could respect. Unfortunately, Leta is an atrocious 0-6 against JD, which is why I laugh at anyone who claims Leta's TvZ to be S-class. S-class isn't just about rolling noobs, it's about hanging with the best. To me Fantasy is sitting on the fence between A-class and S-class; to me he's the only player close to breaking into the elite Flash/JD/Bisu club (as Stork once did).
Obviously, there's no flawless system to decide the S-class, but I think this sums up the situation pretty well as of right now.
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On August 17 2009 08:05 exeprime wrote:Trying to statistically determine who's S-class and who's not seems silly to me. Percentages matter less when you fail in the important games - look at Leta, he might have great numbers, but if you fail against the best / never do much in individual leagues you can't be s-class... + Show Spoiler [gom spoiler] +And wtf, i'm still baffled at how people say Flash > Fantasy, despite Flash crumbling hard on all scenes except Gom in the last months. And seriously, winning Gom when his strongest opponents were Shuttle, a July that wasn't training due to personal problems and Iris isn't that impressive. On the other hand, Fantasy was a key player in SKT1's winning campaign, managed to constantly get very far in individual leagues and generally seemed a lot more solid than Flash, who seems to have periodic meltdowns.
I agree with you that Flash's stock is stagnant if not falling, but he did fall out of both Starleagues losing in his worst match-up each time. If KT(olleh KT???) had made the Playoffs of Proleague I think we would've seen some heroic child labor but we'll never know. Regardless, Flash's TvT is the unquestioned best in the world, his TvP is probably the best, maybe a close second to Fantasy and his TvZ is also top3 minimum,but very disappointing in the last few matches of PL and OSL/MSL.
It's so hard to categorize S-class players so I just do it by feel, Leta does not feel like an S-class player, more like a seasoned veteran who's on the border of S-class. Fantasy should be considered S-class because he has no weak match-ups and despite not winning a Starleague has put up some impressive results in the last year. Nobody else sticks out as much, those who's stock is rising to S-class would probably be Effort. Stork I guess you could say is on the outskirts also, not that he's done anything recently to warrant being considered actually in the S-class though.
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I agree that JD/Bisu/Flash might be getting unfair treatment from their illustrious past histories, so let's cut off their past games at Jan 1 2009 and check out their stats from then until now.
 Jaedong: 89-41 (68.46%)
ZvZ: 34-12 (73.91%)
ZvP: 23-11 (67.65%)
ZvT: 32-18 (64.00%)
 Bisu: 75-30 (71.43%)
PvZ: 23-13 (63.89%)
PvP: 25-6 (80.65%)
PvT: 27-11 (71.05%)
 Flash: 66-29 (69.47%)
TvZ: 22-8 (73.33%)
TvP: 17-10 (62.96%)
TvT: 27-11 (71.05%)
===
Clearly, J-B-F are still dominating, and dominating in every one of their matchups (they're all still over 60% in every matchup only including games played this year).
Let's look at Fantasy in the same time frame:
fantasy: 45-26 (63.38%)
TvZ: 14-13 (51.85%)
TvP: 17-7 (70.83%)
TvT: 14-6 (70.00%)
===
From these stats, it looks clear to me that Fantasy is CLOSE to breaking into the J-B-F 'S-class', but isn't quite there yet. He can definitely take games from S/A-class Zerg and Protoss, but he needs to establish the same aura of invincibility against B-class players that Flash has, and it would also help if he got an individual title.
I like watching Fantasy play (when he doesn't bunker rush), and I hope he wins a title soon. When he does win an individual league, and if he keeps or improves his current percentages, I think he can be called S-class then.
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JD's played 130 games in about 195 days. O.o
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Ok, I am a huge Flash fan but Fantasy is DEFINITELY S-class.
Ask yourself this question - which Terran has the best chance of winning a Starleague right now? The answer, until Flash proves otherwise next season, is FANTASY.
Flash is definitely S-class as well. This past season Flash played like garbage in the Starleagues but was also a bit unlucky. I mean come on, you think if Flash was in Fantasy's OSL group and Fantasy was in Flash's, the outcome wouldn't have been reversed? There's no way in the world Flash loses to Canata in RO8 so then he's back in RO4 and Fantasy is quite possibly out of OSL. The Kwanro loss is the one that really, really hurt. But hey, Fantasy got knocked out of MSL at the same spot too (of course Bisu >>>>> Kwanro).
But JWD, I disagree that Fantasy has been purely underrated on TL. Intelligent fans have properly differentiated between Fantasy and Flash over the past few months in that Fantasy is more likely to win a league and Flash is more likely to win any random game. But people give Fantasy a WAY bigger pass on random losses than Flash ... Fantasy has lost some GARBAGE games in 2009, to the point where everyone was wondering what happened to him after losing to Stork, until he woke up after the JD OSL.
Yeah, Fantasy has been better than Flash over the past 4 months, but over the past 8? It's not clear. I'm pretty confident Fantasy will continue to be an elite Terran for a long time, but take a look at Bisu compared to Jangbi - Jangbi looked to be on the brink of busting out a few times and then fell back to Earth ... Fantasy needs to play like he has been for the past four months for the rest of 2009.
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Jesus Bisu is on a 80% winning rate at PvP ... Someone, stop this guy.
and lol @ JD's ridiculous amount of games. He played 30 games more than Bisu did and around 40 more than Flash.
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Sea has S class TvP?
I don't think Bisu has S class PvT
The Khan tosses hold the title to that
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On August 17 2009 10:48 AzureEye wrote:
Sea has S class TvP?
I don't think Bisu has S class PvT
The Khan tosses hold the title to that
Sea was the protype Child Labor Ultimate Weapon. A good portion of his loses in TvP are to stork and a few to free, but its hard to say. Either way his TvP was excellent as were all of his match ups before he slumped this season.
An example of this was Jangbi, everyone said he had good PvZ and would beat luxury, but upon inspecting Jangbis record, you see like 10ish wins against yarnc, so is jangbi good pvz or moreso vs yarnc.
Kings of PvT are Stork and Jangbi hands down. Then is like Bisu, then Free,Best, Kal, some other random toss I cant think of. Jangbi was clearly king prior to his series vs Nada, after that he looked pretty mortal, I suppose hes kinda mortal all around except in PvP.
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Fantasy's 14-13 record in TvZ is what calls into question his record more than the JBF trio who are above 60% in all matchups. Fantasy has shown a remarkable ability to take single games away from Jaedong in proleague, but when they were matched in Bo5s he lost.
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On August 16 2009 22:12 ArvickHero wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2009 21:59 Ver wrote:
You can't do this by stats though. i,e
Leta is not S class in anything.
Fantasy is S class TvZ.
If you go by stats you have people like Leta/Skyhigh grouped with Fantasy lol.
Basically it's pretty obvious when someone is S class overall (the top 5) or has an S class matchup (Yarnc/July). Kinda like being a bonjwa. You just are. Fantasy is not S-class TvZ lol..
Your superior argumentation is undeniable.
/sarcasm off
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On August 17 2009 11:09 NovaTheFeared wrote:
Fantasy has shown a remarkable ability to take single games away from Jaedong in proleague, but when they were matched in Bo5s he lost.
Jeadong has shown a remarabke ability to steal Bo5 away from Fantashy in invidual league, but in Proleague when it counts the most, he lost to him miserably.
What is the differences between two above sentences???
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On August 17 2009 12:35 geod wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2009 11:09 NovaTheFeared wrote:
Fantasy has shown a remarkable ability to take single games away from Jaedong in proleague, but when they were matched in Bo5s he lost. Jeadong has shown a remarabke ability to steal Bo5 away from Fantashy in invidual league, but in Proleague when it counts the most, he lost to him miserably. What is the differences between two above sentences???
Are you joking? Bo5 sets are a far greater testament to a player's abilities than random, single Proleague games.
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And Flash is just a noob sweeper for now. He is killed by good player in Bo left and right. He sucks in invidual leagues and not like Jeadong he can not carry his team in proleague.And his gom winning means shit. Many teams dont participate in this. I would say the quality is not even comparable to Korea WCG.
The player level change too fast in Starcraft Progaming. I would say the previous season consideration (time frame 3,4 months) is appropriate to evaluate a player current level.
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On August 17 2009 12:54 koreasilver wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2009 12:35 geod wrote:On August 17 2009 11:09 NovaTheFeared wrote:
Fantasy has shown a remarkable ability to take single games away from Jaedong in proleague, but when they were matched in Bo5s he lost. Jeadong has shown a remarabke ability to steal Bo5 away from Fantashy in invidual league, but in Proleague when it counts the most, he lost to him miserably. What is the differences between two above sentences??? Are you joking? Bo5 sets are a far greater testament to a player's abilities than random, single Proleague games.
Are you kidding? The opening (first) game and the ace (last) game in the grand final of pro league is a random, single game? This is the greatest testament to a player's abilities. Star league semi final is no match man.
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United States47024 Posts
On August 17 2009 10:48 AzureEye wrote:
I don't think Bisu has S class PvT
The Khan tosses hold the title to that
The Khan tosses have been playing terribly as of late. IMO S-class is a measure of current capabilities, not all-time career highs. Until they can step up and show they are still capable of playing at the top level, Bisu holds that spot.
At this point in time, the only Protosses I would bet on taking a set from Flash or Fantasy in PvT are Bisu and maybe Kal on a good day.
On August 17 2009 13:02 geod wrote:
Are you kidding? The opening (first) game and the ace (last) game in the grand final of pro league is a random, single game? This is the greatest testament to a player's abilities. Star league semi final is no match man.
I believe the traditional argument that best-of sets are more reliable measures of skill are threefold:
1) They reduce the chance of luck wins
2) One cannot reliably cheese through a Bo5 set--generally this means the player with the stronger overall play will win out, whereas a weaker player can snipe a stronger player in single-game matches before the majority of their skill can be put to use.
3) It tests the player's mental fortitude over a longer period of game-time.
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EPT
