EPTWhy Hwaseung Oz Will Win the Proleague - Page 8
| Forum Index > BW General |
|
Chaos
United States772 Posts
| ||
|
IPS.ZeRo
Germany1142 Posts
| ||
|
Gustav_Wind
United States646 Posts
On July 20 2009 08:23 TwoStep wrote: "The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players." Maximize my ass, Okay, I just did some math. Note that the scenario I used is not totally representative of what happens here. I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's still interesting. Assume that for each game, Team A has 60% chance to win, and team B has 40%, except in a Super Ace match (not normal ace match). For the Super Ace match, the percentages are reversed. Then, under the old Bo7 format, Team A would have a 71.0208% chance of winning. Under this new format, Team A has a 75.137% chance of winning. If the percentages are 70/30 then Team A has a 87.3% and 83% change of winning; the winning percentage actually goes down, but not by much anyways. The way it would actually maximize teams with one S-class player and little depth is if the final deciding ace match was a Bo3....which is what every STX fan wanted anyways. So basically, STX feel gipped at the format because it allowed a less deep team to win, complained, and suggested a way that would make it easier for a less deep team to win. ... This math is wrong. I'm gonna take your word for it that Team A has a 71% chance of winning a single Bo7 if it's 60/40 in single games. And we're assuming that Team B's Ace has a 60% chance of winning the Super Ace if it happens. Team A's chances of winning under the Super Ace format are .71*.71(the probability of them winning both games) + .29*.71*2*.4 ( probability of the two teams splitting the games AND Team B's Ace winning Super Ace.) This makes the percentage for team A winning under Super Ace .668, or 66.8%, which is clearly a DECREASE in percentage for Team A, the team with the weaker ace. For your 87% in a single Bo7 example, the percent goes down to 84.7%. here's a proof I posted in the other thread proving that super ace maximizes s-class players: + Show Spoiler + Let p = the probability of a team winning vs the other team in a single Bo7 Let a = and let a be the probability of that team's Ace winning an ace match vs the other team's Ace. Since I am proving that the Super Ace format favors teams with dominant aces, we are going to assume that a > .5. The probability of that team winning in the Super Ace format is this: (chance of winning both sets) + (chance of winning 1 of the two sets)*(chance of winning super ace) using our notation, it's p^2 + 2p(1-p)a so let us subtract the probability of the single Bo7 win from this number. If the result is positive, then this will show that the Super Ace format gives them an increased chance of winning from the single Bo7. p^2 + 2p(1-p)a - p using algebra: p^2 + 2ap - 2ap^2 - p p^2 - 2ap^2 - p + 2ap p^2(1-2a) - p(1-2a) (1-2a)(p^2 - p) (1-2a)(p-1)p (2a-1)(1-p)p Final Result: (2a-1)(1-p)p we know p and 1-p have to be positive, since p is a probability and therefore is between 0 and 1. Since a is > .5, 2a-1 is also positive. Therefore, the net result is positive. | ||
|
TwoStep
United States294 Posts
I just don't get why people feel that the team with more depth is somehow "entitled" to win and if they don't, it's the format that cheated them, and not their poor performance (and everytime a team with more "depth" loses, they performed poorly in many games). And I don't get why people are having trouble with a single game deciding the entire thing, that's what ace matches were before anyways. | ||
|
Gustav_Wind
United States646 Posts
On August 06 2009 09:48 TwoStep wrote: Ahh...woops, did the calculations wrong for the 2nd part. Yeah, it's a small decrease. Your proof is right. I just don't get why people feel that the team with more depth is somehow "entitled" to win and if they don't, it's the format that cheated them, and not their poor performance (and everytime a team with more "depth" loses, they performed poorly in many games). And I don't get why people are having trouble with a single game deciding the entire thing, that's what ace matches were before anyways. Yeah I don't think it makes it a worse format necessarily, just a strange one. Personally I don't really like it when on Day 2 CJ just crushes Oz, including a huge Orion upset over JD, and then it's all for nothing because JD is up to bat again for all the marbles. Not a fan of either team specifically, either. I just did the proof cause too many people were saying that it didn't favor Aces over Depth statistically =\ What the format has done for me though is convinced me that there is much more variance in sc than most people think. | ||
| ||
