Almost exactly one week ago I wrote this article about how STX was going to win the Proleague. HOWEVER, I started writing that article long before I knew what the format of the playoffs would be and before I realized the harshness of the real world (that fairy tales don’t exist and the good guy doesn't always win). Now sit back and learn what life is REALLY like and why Hwaseung Oz will win this Proleague.
1. Hunger
In March of this year Oz’s well-deserved Winners League trophy was stolen from them right before victory by the unbelievably cheesy and untalented SkyHigh. After defeating Jaedong on the gravely Terran-favoring map Rush Hour 3 with both a positional advantage and BO advantage (supply barracks supply is so anti-5pool), he cheesed 2 non-Backho Protosses and defeated poor Hiya in the final match (who just couldn’t stand the pressure is all). Every night before each Oz member goes to bed, they pray for the death of SkyHigh and another shot at a Proleague title. Well, here it is. 2. The Tyrant
EVER2007 OSL. Batoo OSL. GOMTV S4 MSL. GSL S1. WCG Korea 2008. Averatec Intel Classic Special Match. Most wins Shinhan 08-09 Proleague. Career 244-111 (68.73%). Father of the greatest 27-game streak of all time. What else needs to be said of this StarCraft Prodigy? Everyone fears this man, no one questions his success. Undoubtedly the strongest and most-skilled player to ever pick up a mouse, Jaedong cannot and will not be stopped. A few fluke wins can’t keep this man down, and once whichever pathetic team arises from the playoff semifinals to meet Oz, Jaedong will unquestionably lay an amazing beatdown on whoever the opposition sends to snipe him. He will be well-rested and extremely in shape, and we will probably see this monster take StarCraft to a whole new level come late July.
3. The Format
"Fair's fair"
There is no doubt that Hwaseung’s coach was the main architect of the Proleague Playoffs format. The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players. In this format, Hwaseung Oz players need to only nab 2 wins in 1 match and then hand it off to Jaedong for the slam-dunk (who can win his set, the ace match, and then the super-ace match for the win). In fact, JD might be able to even lose one of his games (although that event is very unlikely) as KHAN has already proven that a team can win in this format based almost solely on fluke wins. While at 1st that may seem bad for Oz, fear not: a rested Jaedong does not suffer fluke loses.
Although in a small slump right now, Hiya was once one of the beastliest Terrans in the league, with the 4th best record of anyone in Winner’s League (basically the best performer outside of JD/flash/Bisu). His recent record may seem awful to some, but remember, this guy practices with Jaedong! He’s got 2 weeks to get his act together and I have no doubt that by then he will at least be able to take one game off of some unsuspecting CJ or KHAN player.
Everyone’s favorite Protoss player, Backho is currently the 2nd best player on Oz. Extremely inconsistent, you can count on this young lad to completely flabbergast some poor chump in the Playoffs. Backho prides himself on defeating tough opponents, so there’s no doubt that come the time, Backho will take down whoever the opposing team’s strongest player is and make it look easy.
Once in a rare while a young rookie comes along and instantly starts to dominate the scene. Perfectman is one of those players. Perfectman defeated Iris, who was fresh off of 3-0ing Effort and beating Bisu, on a hugely Terran-favored map and he made it look easy. He didn't even practice the stategy he used for very long either:
"Up until Wednesday, I initially practiced standard builds, but occasionally I used strategic plays against players that I practiced with. But then the strategy I used was working well, so I decided to use it because of my desire to win."
Recent times are dark for Protoss players, but the rumored 7th Dragon is finally upon us, and he is Perfect:
". I was going to eat OoHwangChungShimHwan but my hyungs told me if I ate that for my first match, I would end up having to eat it for every following match so I didn’t."
Perfectman not only has nerves of steel, not only PERFECT micro, but he is also a master of mindgames:
"I wanted to lower the other team’s morale, and I also wanted to get my name recognized more. I watched InkiGayo (t/n: music show program) and saw 2PM (t/n: Korean boy group) perform and thought they were so cool, so I decided to use their dance."
Oz not only has a Tyrant, but now they have themselves a Dragon too, and this Dragon wants blood. SKT1 blood. For more, read this article.
6. Lack of Competition
Let’s face facts; the competition is pathetic this season. I don’t know what it is, but after the twostrongest teams were eliminated, it really seems like the average level of StarCraft being played right now has really dropped compared to say the 2007 Proleague. Even if Jaedong wasn’t playing on Oz they would still have a 50/50 shot at taking this thing.
I wouldn't call STX SouL the stronger team but they are good...also its basically Jaedong and friends, I bet Jaedong wins every game and the rest of his team wins..But thats just my opinion.
On July 20 2009 07:52 geegee1 wrote: Lomo actually threw that game away to JD in gom. if he didnt i think Lomo had a chance for a gold and im actually being serious
Lomo also showed ineptitude in every single late game situation from that game on just to trick us into thinking he has a horrendous endgame just so we wouldn't suspect he actually threw his game vs JD. Ingenious.
Also fOrGG threw his game vs JD in the WL finals, but he had to play badly for 3 months beforehand and afterwards so no one would be shocked by the fact that he played bad.
"The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players." Maximize my ass,
Okay, I just did some math. Note that the scenario I used is not totally representative of what happens here. I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's still interesting. Assume that for each game, Team A has 60% chance to win, and team B has 40%, except in a Super Ace match (not normal ace match). For the Super Ace match, the percentages are reversed.
Then, under the old Bo7 format, Team A would have a 71.0208% chance of winning. Under this new format, Team A has a 75.137% chance of winning.
If the percentages are 70/30 then Team A has a 87.3% and 83% change of winning; the winning percentage actually goes down, but not by much anyways.
The way it would actually maximize teams with one S-class player and little depth is if the final deciding ace match was a Bo3....which is what every STX fan wanted anyways.
So basically, STX feel gipped at the format because it allowed a less deep team to win, complained, and suggested a way that would make it easier for a less deep team to win.
On July 20 2009 08:23 TwoStep wrote: "The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players." Maximize my ass,
Okay, I just did some math. Note that the scenario I used is not totally representative of what happens here. I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's still interesting. Assume that for each game, Team A has 60% chance to win, and team B has 40%, except in a Super Ace match (not normal ace match). For the Super Ace match, the percentages are reversed.
Then, under the old Bo7 format, Team A would have a 71.0208% chance of winning. Under this new format, Team A has a 75.137% chance of winning.
If the percentages are 70/30 then Team A has a 87.3% and 83% change of winning; the winning percentage actually goes down, but not by much anyways.
The way it would actually maximize teams with one S-class player and little depth is if the final deciding ace match was a Bo3....which is what every STX fan wanted anyways.
So basically, STX feel gipped at the format because it allowed a less deep team to win, complained, and suggested a way that would make it easier for a less deep team to win.
if Oz is team B then you should change it so that Oz has a 100% chance of winning the super ace match.
I said it didn't completely represent each team. Maybe once lineups come out and each person agrees on percantages for each match then I could do it. JD's not 100%, I'd say 60% because Effort and Movie, FBH, and Jangbi can go against JD who has to practice 3 MUs.
On July 20 2009 08:32 TwoStep wrote: I said it didn't completely represent each team. Maybe once lineups come out and each person agrees on percantages for each match then I could do it. JD's not 100%, I'd say 60% because Effort and Movie, FBH, and Jangbi can go against JD who has to practice 3 MUs.
On July 20 2009 08:32 TwoStep wrote: I said it didn't completely represent each team. Maybe once lineups come out and each person agrees on percantages for each match then I could do it. JD's not 100%, I'd say 60% because Effort and Movie, FBH, and Jangbi can go against JD who has to practice 3 MUs.
Hiya and Lomo are really bad now. They won't be able to pull through. Backho is too inconsistent. It's basically jaedong by himself and even if they are able to advance past cj, they won't be able to take on sktt1.
lol. Brilliant Win-Win situation by ideas. Props to this thread, great way to release rage from STX fail. People should read the thread carefully and properly.
but what really made me fall out of my chair for laughing so hard was this quote:
"Even if Jaedong wasn’t playing on Oz they would still have a 50/50 shot at taking thing."
even without jd they would have a 50% chance to beat cj/khan AND then skt1? ya, for sure
reasons in favor of oz:
1. jaedong 2. jaedong 3. ???? 4. profit!!
seriously, ur whole reasoning is based on the fact that jaedong wins 2 back to back ace matches. in fact i am not too sceptical about oz´s chances against cj/khan, but against bisu and fantasy or bisu 2 times not even jaedong has even 50% chance of success. even if jaedong was a 5:2 favorite against both of them his chances to win both ace matches in a row would only be 51%. and he definitely isnt a 5:2 favorite over bisu.
next point: jd is in 2 starleagues aswell, so his practice schedule will be hellish. he wont be super-rested and relaxed. and yet another point: he does have to win his regular set aswell in the game where his teammates succeed to snipe 2 opposing players. against skt1 he could potentially face bisu or fantasy there aswell, in that case the regular set would be no autowin aswell. and against cj he might potentially have to win 2 back to back ace matches against effort. if he loses just 1 of them oz might lose. so against cj ur "jd will crush any1 flawlessly"-hypothesis might also prove wrong.
On July 20 2009 09:18 EvoChamber wrote: An actual Oz fan would never make this thread, lol. We only gloat after our team has won.
On July 18 2009 13:41 Avidkeystamper wrote: Lol, it's because we're more confident. We don't need 7 page threads with fanboys agreeing that their team is awesome; Oz's victory is already secured.
On July 20 2009 09:10 Black Gun wrote: wow. blind fanboyism going on here.
but what really made me fall out of my chair for laughing so hard was this quote:
"Even if Jaedong wasn’t playing on Oz they would still have a 50/50 shot at taking thing."
even without jd they would have a 50% chance to beat cj/khan AND then skt1? ya, for sure
reasons in favor of oz:
1. jaedong 2. jaedong 3. ???? 4. profit!!
seriously, ur whole reasoning is based on the fact that jaedong wins 2 back to back ace matches. in fact i am not too sceptical about oz´s chances against cj/khan, but against bisu and fantasy or bisu 2 times not even jaedong has even 50% chance of success. even if jaedong was a 5:2 favorite against both of them his chances to win both ace matches in a row would only be 51%. and he definitely isnt a 5:2 favorite over bisu.
next point: jd is in 2 starleagues aswell, so his practice schedule will be hellish. he wont be super-rested and relaxed. and yet another point: he does have to win his regular set aswell in the game where his teammates succeed to snipe 2 opposing players. against skt1 he could potentially face bisu or fantasy there aswell, in that case the regular set would be no autowin aswell. and against cj he might potentially have to win 2 back to back ace matches against effort. if he loses just 1 of them oz might lose. so against cj ur "jd will crush any1 flawlessly"-hypothesis might also prove wrong.
TBH i rather see khan or CJ in the grand finals, SKT vs Oz will just be a beat down unless Oz's player pulled some crazy shit and when your main backups are backho, hiya, and lomo says alot about your team depth.
On July 20 2009 09:04 samachking wrote: lol. Brilliant Win-Win situation by ideas. Props to this thread, great way to release rage from STX fail. People should read the thread carefully and properly.
but honestly I really hope Oz wins Proleague now. After the STX gang JD is my favorite player (and then after him fantasy). I mean if KHAN managed to take down STX, ANYTHING can happen, including Hwaseung getting their shit together and owning up everyone.
On July 20 2009 09:04 samachking wrote: lol. Brilliant Win-Win situation by ideas. Props to this thread, great way to release rage from STX fail. People should read the thread carefully and properly.
but honestly I really hope Oz wins Proleague now. After the STX gang JD is my favorite player (and then after him fantasy). I mean if KHAN managed to take down STX, ANYTHING can happen, including Hwaseung getting their shit together and owning up everyone.
Yeah, god forbid last season's champs win it again, with the same players. Looool.
OP is hilarious though. Most tongue-in-cheek hilarity ever. (But I do like Backho)
On July 20 2009 09:04 samachking wrote: lol. Brilliant Win-Win situation by ideas. Props to this thread, great way to release rage from STX fail. People should read the thread carefully and properly.
but honestly I really hope Oz wins Proleague now. After the STX gang JD is my favorite player (and then after him fantasy). I mean if KHAN managed to take down STX, ANYTHING can happen, including Hwaseung getting their shit together and owning up everyone.
Yeah, god forbid last season's champs win it again, with the same players. Looool.
OP is hilarious though. Most tongue-in-cheek hilarity ever. (But I do like Backho)
On July 20 2009 08:23 TwoStep wrote: "The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players." Maximize my ass,
Okay, I just did some math. Note that the scenario I used is not totally representative of what happens here. I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's still interesting. Assume that for each game, Team A has 60% chance to win, and team B has 40%, except in a Super Ace match (not normal ace match). For the Super Ace match, the percentages are reversed.
Then, under the old Bo7 format, Team A would have a 71.0208% chance of winning. Under this new format, Team A has a 75.137% chance of winning.
If the percentages are 70/30 then Team A has a 87.3% and 83% change of winning; the winning percentage actually goes down, but not by much anyways.
The way it would actually maximize teams with one S-class player and little depth is if the final deciding ace match was a Bo3....which is what every STX fan wanted anyways.
So basically, STX feel gipped at the format because it allowed a less deep team to win, complained, and suggested a way that would make it easier for a less deep team to win.
Oz will win Proleague, not only because they have Jaedong, who has a 200% win rate (he even wins games he doesn't participate in, hes so good), but they have the deepest, most clutch lineup of any team out there. One-trick pony teams like SKT and CJ don't stand a chance.
On July 20 2009 07:52 geegee1 wrote: Lomo actually threw that game away to JD in gom. if he didnt i think Lomo had a chance for a gold and im actually being serious
Are you kidding? You know Lomo isn't a great player in general right? Yeah he was ahead in that game but there is no way he threw it for JD. Gom = Individual league = Every man for his own greed
Winning GOM is like $40,000? Would you seriously not play your best against a friend/teammate if it involved that much money? Fuck I would d/c that game in an effort to get a tie if I was losing if that much money was involved..
On July 20 2009 14:40 Sentenal wrote: Oz will win Proleague, not only because they have Jaedong, who has a 200% win rate (he even wins games he doesn't participate in, hes so good), but they have the deepest, most clutch lineup of any team out there. One-trick pony teams like SKT and CJ don't stand a chance.
XD
At any rate, given the format, Hwaseung's chances aren't half bad. Jaedong will have to play up to five televised Proleague games in two days, but that only improves the team's chances
Because there's no way that 2 other Oz players can win games to take them to the Ace match.
Also, we all know who Oz will throw out as their ace. Other teams can just field a sniper to take Jaedong down. That is if Oz gets to ace in the first place.
On July 20 2009 16:33 Mystlord wrote: Why Hwaseung Oz will NOT win the Proleague.
Because there's no way that 2 other Oz players can win games to take them to the Ace match.
Also, we all know who Oz will throw out as their ace. Other teams can just field a sniper to take Jaedong down. That is if Oz gets to ace in the first place.
On July 20 2009 16:33 Mystlord wrote: Why Hwaseung Oz will NOT win the Proleague.
Because there's no way that 2 other Oz players can win games to take them to the Ace match.
Also, we all know who Oz will throw out as their ace. Other teams can just field a sniper to take Jaedong down. That is if Oz gets to ace in the first place.
Yeah you are right. Because just like we saw in regular league, where the teams also knew JD would be sent out, he always got sniped. Wait, what?!
Hrmmm? Dont take Oz that lightly though, if they snipe well their players have a decent shot at pulling off JD +2 combo with ease. Backho>>>>CJ protosses by a large margin and he can give Skyhigh a run for his money, so if he PvP/Ts he is in good shape, Hiya can also take the tosses too but he isnt doing as well recently, lomo is lol, JD is a huge favorite over every CJ player without a doubt, and lomo and the other 2 chumps Oz will send can luck out or pull off a decent bo as shown to us by Miracle and Last, anything is possible, although one thing is for sure, CJ is Oz's worst nightmare, but doesnt mean Oz cant beat CJ though, JD x3 and Backho+Chobo is all that is needed for CJ to lose in this format.
On July 20 2009 16:33 Mystlord wrote: Other teams can just field a sniper to take Jaedong down. place.
Right, because that worked in WL yeah? Especially vs KTF, JD shouldnt have 5poold that game, if he didnt, who knows, he would probably be called Bonjwa now.
Haha just gotta love Hiya small slump he is litterally falling apart but he will probleby win one game and thats enough, JD will with pure will win this for OZ.
U cant snipe JD. You just have to send the best player and prey to God that JD has a bad day.
To the above two: This is post season. And in the playoffs, Oz is facing teams that have the players to snipe Jaedong. CJ has EffOrt, Samsung has uhh... skip, but with their line up, they'll probably end it before Ace anyway. SKT has Bisu. It's not like they'll need an Ace match though.
What other teams have players of on par caliber with Jaedong? Sparkyz and KT, but neither of them are in the playoffs so...
Guys, what sort of BS are you spewing? A Sniper taking out Jaedong? What is this madness? Did you not notice Jaedongs 100%+ win rate? Jaedong never loses ever, therefore its impossible to snipe him. And how do you know Jaedong is going to be the one sent out for Ace? Oz's lineup is so deep, they could send anyone out and have a legitimate chance to win.
On July 20 2009 16:36 Eggplant wrote: Jaedong sounds like a pornstar's nickname assigned for the characteristically effective curvature of his phallus.
That's because all the English commentators say it wrong. They also pronounce gom wrong. It's supposed to be the o that sounds like the letter o.
On July 20 2009 16:36 Eggplant wrote: Jaedong sounds like a pornstar's nickname assigned for the characteristically effective curvature of his phallus.
That's because all the English commentators say it wrong. They also pronounce gom wrong. It's supposed to be the o that sounds like the letter o.
Does Daniel Lee pronounce it correctly? Like Je-dong
This thread is full of trolls and bad irony. But I'm posting, anyways, to say that I believe Oz is going to win this. And Oz could even win this without resorting to Jaedong x3. Hiya can beat good players and so do Backho. Plus there is Lomo who is very friggin good on Shadows of Twilight. Besides those three Jaedong back ups, there are yet the backups of the backups with Spear, Young and Killer who have good shots at taking matches.
On July 20 2009 20:03 JohnBall wrote: This thread is full of trolls and bad irony. But I'm posting, anyways, to say that I believe Oz is going to win this. And Oz could even win this without resorting to Jaedong x3. Hiya can beat good players and so do Backho. Plus there is Lomo who is very friggin good on Shadows of Twilight. Besides those three Jaedong back ups, there are yet the backups of the backups with Spear, Young and Killer who have good shots at taking matches.
Oz is going to win this ez pz.
Are you serious? Have you compared Oz lineup minus jaedong vs SKT1? CJ? or even Khan?
On July 20 2009 20:03 JohnBall wrote: This thread is full of trolls and bad irony. But I'm posting, anyways, to say that I believe Oz is going to win this. And Oz could even win this without resorting to Jaedong x3. Hiya can beat good players and so do Backho. Plus there is Lomo who is very friggin good on Shadows of Twilight. Besides those three Jaedong back ups, there are yet the backups of the backups with Spear, Young and Killer who have good shots at taking matches.
Oz is going to win this ez pz.
Are you serious? Have you compared Oz lineup minus jaedong vs SKT1? CJ? or even Khan?
I am serious and I did and I do think Oz is going to win.
On July 20 2009 16:36 Eggplant wrote: Jaedong sounds like a pornstar's nickname assigned for the characteristically effective curvature of his phallus.
Although at first thought i wrote off Oz, now i think about it they might have a good chance with decent choices by the coach of which players to play on each map. BackHo/Lomo/Hiya all good at times and they can practise solid for just 1 matchup they have nothing else to practise for. Of course JD will still be relied on a lot and possibly sniped in Ace match but they will be expecting this.
Watch Oz will do the same thing as Hite, lose the first day in a seven setter, but win the second day before Ace, while Jaedong loses all 3 of the games he plays. Then Oz decides to be tricky and sends out Backho for Super-Ace
On July 20 2009 20:03 JohnBall wrote: This thread is full of trolls and bad irony. But I'm posting, anyways, to say that I believe Oz is going to win this. And Oz could even win this without resorting to Jaedong x3. Hiya can beat good players and so do Backho. Plus there is Lomo who is very friggin good on Shadows of Twilight. Besides those three Jaedong back ups, there are yet the backups of the backups with Spear, Young and Killer who have good shots at taking matches.
Oz is going to win this ez pz.
Are you serious? Have you compared Oz lineup minus jaedong vs SKT1? CJ? or even Khan?
I am serious and I did and I do think Oz is going to win.
SKT has Bisu which up against jaedong is a 50/50 toss up
Then they have fantasy and best and recently canata which all can be counted upon to deliver if needed vs Lomo/backho/hiya? Are you kidding me?
On July 20 2009 20:03 JohnBall wrote: This thread is full of trolls and bad irony. But I'm posting, anyways, to say that I believe Oz is going to win this. And Oz could even win this without resorting to Jaedong x3. Hiya can beat good players and so do Backho. Plus there is Lomo who is very friggin good on Shadows of Twilight. Besides those three Jaedong back ups, there are yet the backups of the backups with Spear, Young and Killer who have good shots at taking matches.
Oz is going to win this ez pz.
Are you serious? Have you compared Oz lineup minus jaedong vs SKT1? CJ? or even Khan?
I am serious and I did and I do think Oz is going to win.
SKT has Bisu which up against jaedong is a 50/50 toss up
Then they have fantasy and best and recently canata which all can be counted upon to deliver if needed vs Lomo/backho/hiya? Are you kidding me?
SKT's supporting cast is better than that of Oz, but they're also fallible. BeSt has been winning some games again lately, but mostly thanks to 2-base Arbiters against Terran- I wouldn't count on him winning in a game against BackHo or any Oz Zerg. Canata has also been winning, but the only way I'd consider him a firm favorite is if he's matched up with Falcon, ggaemo, Killer or some other Hwaseung non-Jaedong zerg.
And then there's Hyuk and Thezerg. More dependable than Spear and Young if you ask me, but that's about as far as I'd go.
Why do people think that just because the opponent's team knows that JD will come, he'll be sniped? "hey guys cj knows who they're playing that means they'll win, right?"
On July 21 2009 11:10 Evs wrote: but KHAN was only considered bad because they're top 3 players (Stork, Jangbi and FBH) were all in a slump. Oz looks bad even when Jaedong is red hot.
Yeah, Oz is so bad that they tied for first place in number of wins in Proleague. Oh, wait.
On July 21 2009 11:10 Evs wrote: but KHAN was only considered bad because they're top 3 players (Stork, Jangbi and FBH) were all in a slump. Oz looks bad even when Jaedong is red hot.
Yeah, Oz is so bad that they tied for first place in number of wins in Proleague. Oh, wait.
Any other team in the top 6 may very well be in 1st place if they had Jaedong...
Also, no matter how you roll the dice, Oz will be facing a 2-win streak team in the semifinals.
On July 20 2009 20:03 JohnBall wrote: This thread is full of trolls and bad irony. But I'm posting, anyways, to say that I believe Oz is going to win this. And Oz could even win this without resorting to Jaedong x3. Hiya can beat good players and so do Backho. Plus there is Lomo who is very friggin good on Shadows of Twilight. Besides those three Jaedong back ups, there are yet the backups of the backups with Spear, Young and Killer who have good shots at taking matches.
Oz is going to win this ez pz.
Are you serious? Have you compared Oz lineup minus jaedong vs SKT1? CJ? or even Khan?
I am serious and I did and I do think Oz is going to win.
SKT has Bisu which up against jaedong is a 50/50 toss up
Then they have fantasy and best and recently canata which all can be counted upon to deliver if needed vs Lomo/backho/hiya? Are you kidding me?
Omg, I have different opinion then you, there fore I must be kidding you! I am not. I still think Oz is going to win this despite Bisu/Fantasy/Best/Stork/Jangbi/Effort/Iris/Hyuk/etc... And you know what? this is an Esport that we are talking about. In Esports, much like regular sports, sometimes the underdog wins in surprising ways. But nevermind that, I must be kidding you.
eh..in a bo7 OZ will suffer. They dont have 3 other players they can depend on to win their games.. for oz to win they need to bring JD out in ACE, but their chances of even REACHING the ace game in a bo7 is really slim -.-
BeSt has been winning some games again lately, but mostly thanks to 2-base Arbiters against Terran- I wouldn't count on him winning in a game against BackHo
BeSt has been winning some games again lately, but mostly thanks to 2-base Arbiters against Terran- I wouldn't count on him winning in a game against BackHo
BeSt has been winning some games again lately, but mostly thanks to 2-base Arbiters against Terran- I wouldn't count on him winning in a game against BackHo
Best isn't Stork.
Yeah, he's worse.
Perhaps but he'll still take down BackHo reliably.
haha, I only just read this, great job, this is definitely the write up I enjoyed the most out of the play off threads, had quite a few laughs.
And lol@ the people who think ideas is 1000% serious Also if CJ should get knocked out for some unexplainable reason it'll be the same situation for me: My favourite team is gone so I'll be rooting for Oz to take it all only for the same single reason they actually have a chance: The Dong.
i love how perfectman wasn't mentioned one time in this thread before...and now he's the MVP of the first day. all the Oz players really stepped up to the plate today, other than Lomo at least.
i'm not mad though, if he had won we wouldn't get to see Backho play major props to Oz, protoss 2:0
On August 01 2009 15:40 lordmordor wrote: i love how perfectman wasn't mentioned one time in this thread before...and now he's the MVP of the first day. all the Oz players really stepped up to the plate today, other than Lomo at least.
Hey, Lomo tried. He just ran into dueling cheese, then his push failed as SkyHigh got his Siege Mode out at literally the last possible second. After that... well, I'm pretty sure Lomo's plan didn't involve an "after that", so it all went downhill from there
Oh and BTW:
On July 22 2009 07:52 Loldts wrote: All you Oz fanboys better pray Khan pulls a clutch upset, bc ace match EffOrt>Jaedong
If "Effort > Jaedong" means that Effort should bring lubrication to the next Jaedong vs. Effort game, then yes, you're correct. Otherwise, fail.
Oh btw, depth doesn't play as much of a role as people think it does in Oz vs CJ, I know it sounds shocking, but it's true. Not saying it's insignificant, but I will restate that the best format for CJ would've been 1 Bo11.
On August 01 2009 15:40 lordmordor wrote: i love how perfectman wasn't mentioned one time in this thread before...and now he's the MVP of the first day.
It wasn't this thread, but the preview one for the match that I and maybe a handful of others said PerfectMan was gonna snipe Iris bc Iris simply doesnt care about a TvP when he has a TvT tomorrow and the final vs Flash in two weeks. It feels good to be right.
On August 01 2009 16:11 tobi9999 wrote: Wow, i still can't believe people think that CJ is deep, they have EffOrt and EffOrt.
I dislike the "depth" prattling too, but there's no way you can say it's false. Their protoss line is mediocre to good, but Skyhigh/Iris and Effort/Kwanro make a damn good four man line up. Movie/Much, while not as strong, is better than any team's protoss line up that doesn't include dragons(Unless you have some misplaced hope in violet+tempest like me).
But they did get roflstomped, with half of the previous players losing their games (and only one winning), so hopefully they're a bit more humble.
On August 01 2009 16:11 tobi9999 wrote: Wow, i still can't believe people think that CJ is deep, they have EffOrt and EffOrt.
I dislike the "depth" prattling too, but there's no way you can say it's false. Their protoss line is mediocre to good, but Skyhigh/Iris and Effort/Kwanro make a damn good four man line up. Movie/Much, while not as strong, is better than any team's protoss line up that doesn't include dragons(Unless you have some misplaced hope in violet+tempest like me).
But they did get roflstomped, with half of the previous players losing their games (and only one winning), so hopefully they're a bit more humble.
No need to get humble, CJ is still the deepest with STX, they just had a bad night, and jaedong losing to effort is no biggie, TvP is always TvP and you know protoss can always make "miracles". and Hiya's TvP is more proven that Movies meh/polarish PvT, he played suprisingly well against Leta though, but that is Leta's shaky MU,
However since CJ Lost the first game it means at worst for Leacaf Jaedong decides their fate...which is very bad for CJ. Its not hopeless with Iris, Movie, Effort, and Skyhigh(Cheese only?lol) but certainly one would have to get OZ the edge in the series right now.
Yes, no need to be humble after getting 4-1'd when 90% of people predicted it to be vice versa? Come on now. Everyone knows CJ has a strong line up, but everyone treats it as infallible. Whenever they win only because one player shows up (Both Skyhigh at WL and Effort vs Khan), it's not indicative of anything, but when they lose it's just a bad night, or a fluke, or what?
CJ fans really, really need to understand that, while they're ahead in depth, they're not as ahead as they think. It's not coincidence that they keep getting upset losses left, right and center. It's equivalent to Oz fans calling Jaedong bonjwa (which he's not -- yet) -- over presumptuous, and riddled with shaky excuses when he loses spectacularly. It'd just be nice for people to understand it's a closer race than it looks sometimes, and to maybe take a page from the gamers they idolize and practice a little modesty.
On August 01 2009 16:11 tobi9999 wrote: Wow, i still can't believe people think that CJ is deep, they have EffOrt and EffOrt.
I dislike the "depth" prattling too, but there's no way you can say it's false. Their protoss line is mediocre to good, but Skyhigh/Iris and Effort/Kwanro make a damn good four man line up. Movie/Much, while not as strong, is better than any team's protoss line up that doesn't include dragons(Unless you have some misplaced hope in violet+tempest like me).
But they did get roflstomped, with half of the previous players losing their games (and only one winning), so hopefully they're a bit more humble.
I understand your point but one could argue that Oz is deep too. Zerg Jaedong/Killer Protoss Backho/(Perfectman/Spear/Young) Terran Lomo/HiyA
is this really that much worse? Iris, although doing well in GOM, isn't really performing that well otherwise. Much, is slumping/sucks? because he almost never shows up to game and when he does he loses. Skyhigh is inconsistant, so is Kwanro due to using such risky builds. EffOrt is REALLY REALLY good, but he is a guy who has not won a starleague and is on a 8 game losing streak here. Movie, is also really inconsistant beating jaedong and leta one day, losing to Justin the other.
CJ's players have big names, but not great skills in my opinion. Oz's players aren't that great either, but they're underestimated so much while CJ's players are overhyped
On August 01 2009 16:11 tobi9999 wrote: Wow, i still can't believe people think that CJ is deep, they have EffOrt and EffOrt.
I dislike the "depth" prattling too, but there's no way you can say it's false. Their protoss line is mediocre to good, but Skyhigh/Iris and Effort/Kwanro make a damn good four man line up. Movie/Much, while not as strong, is better than any team's protoss line up that doesn't include dragons(Unless you have some misplaced hope in violet+tempest like me).
But they did get roflstomped, with half of the previous players losing their games (and only one winning), so hopefully they're a bit more humble.
I understand your point but one could argue that Oz is deep too. Zerg Jaedong/Killer Protoss Backho/(Perfectman/Spear/Young) Terran Lomo/HiyA
is this really that much worse? Iris, although doing well in GOM, isn't really performing that well otherwise. Much, is slumping/sucks? because he almost never shows up to game and when he does he loses. Skyhigh is inconsistant, so is Kwanro due to using such risky builds. EffOrt is REALLY REALLY good, but he is a guy who has not won a starleague and is on a 8 game losing streak here. Movie, is also really inconsistant beating jaedong and leta one day, losing to Justin the other.
CJ's players have big names, but not great skills in my opinion. Oz's players aren't that great either, but they're underestimated so much while CJ's players are overhyped
Holy shit, you nailed it right in the fucking dot. You could not have said it any better. 100% agree with this post. Thank you for giving everyone a reality check.
Yeah, admittedly what counts as Oz's B-Team is pretty strong, really. Hell that looks to be Oz's strength.
If you look at both match ups, they of course play the same four-man, Jaedong-backho-hiya-lomo combo, but then filling out their other two spots, they have Perfectman and Killer on one day, and Young and Ggaemo the next day, meaning their fresher players with less experience don't have to dedicate to two days of practice.
CJ's been playing the same six or seven guys constantly for three weeks and that's given Oz's backup squad a whole lot of time to train for snipes, and it also plauges CJ's rising star players for their inconsistency(Notably Skyhigh and Movie, but Iris and Much aren't strangers to bad matches). I think Oz planned their games very well, even if they're not the statistical favorites.
Perfectman ace!!! googogoogoo ok it was a short game and could be a fluke but he looked so fucking hungry i really hope and believe he's going to be an awesome player in a couple of months!
On August 01 2009 19:11 nttea wrote: Perfectman ace!!! googogoogoo ok it was a short game and could be a fluke but he looked so fucking hungry i really hope and believe he's going to be an awesome player in a couple of months!
i agree, he looked like the breakout toss that Oz has been missing ever since anytime left.
his game against iris has me so excited now, not just he executed so well on a harass heavy build, but that he did it with no fear. if you look back to the WL finals, spear and young played like the rookies they were, making mistakes and playing scared. perfectman was the exact opposite, this was his first chance to perform on a big stage and he fucking rocked it
On August 01 2009 17:49 TwoToneTerran wrote:Whenever they win only because one player shows up (Both Skyhigh at WL and Effort vs Khan), it's not indicative of anything, but when they lose it's just a bad night, or a fluke, or what?
Well the fact that Skyhigh is not the same person as effort already says something about depth, doesn't it? But I do agree that the whole depth point is overrated
On August 01 2009 17:51 tobi9999 wrote:
I understand your point but one could argue that Oz is deep too. Zerg Jaedong/Killer Protoss Backho/(Perfectman/Spear/Young) Terran Lomo/HiyA
is this really that much worse?
First of all, why do you have Killer standing there, he's had like 5 TV matches and hasn't proven anything (yet) But yeah the thing is, IF Oz's player bring their absolute A-game, then no, it isn't worse than CJ's line up at all. But BackHo (kinda like movie) is terribly inconsistent, Lomo didn't play as good as he used to, and hiya was in a big slump. Also, the distance between those 3 players and Jaedong is just so big - which doesn't have to mean that therefore they are worse than CJ in depth, it might just mean that JD is just that good. After all there's a reason for why Oz was on #1 of the PL rankings nearly the entire team. But people see these points and therefore think OK Oz's depth sucks because JD is so much better than everyone else in his team. And tbh, when Oz didn't have backho and lomo and hiya weren't performing it was 100% true. Oz's non JD line up did suck. Hard. But BackHo is back, he's been playing smarter than he used to, and lomo and hiya have had plenty of time to practice and to think about why they weren't doing that well during the season.
So yeah I do agree that the depth discussion is overrated, I'm barely pointing out that there's reasons for why people think that way.
Oh and you said Iris is only performing in GOM - but he's also still in the msl, being up 1 - 0 against Bisu. But I think this is also another problem for CJ because Iris seems to be very very very focused on the individual league and not so much on the pro league, unlike effort who is doing quite the opposite (well, now hes out of every individ. league anyways).
Oh and since I just read the new kespa rankings This shows you perfectly why people think CJ depth >> Oz depth:
On August 01 2009 16:11 tobi9999 wrote: Wow, i still can't believe people think that CJ is deep, they have EffOrt and EffOrt.
I dislike the "depth" prattling too, but there's no way you can say it's false. Their protoss line is mediocre to good, but Skyhigh/Iris and Effort/Kwanro make a damn good four man line up. Movie/Much, while not as strong, is better than any team's protoss line up that doesn't include dragons(Unless you have some misplaced hope in violet+tempest like me).
But they did get roflstomped, with half of the previous players losing their games (and only one winning), so hopefully they're a bit more humble.
I understand your point but one could argue that Oz is deep too. Zerg Jaedong/Killer Protoss Backho/(Perfectman/Spear/Young) Terran Lomo/HiyA
is this really that much worse? Iris, although doing well in GOM, isn't really performing that well otherwise. Much, is slumping/sucks? because he almost never shows up to game and when he does he loses. Skyhigh is inconsistant, so is Kwanro due to using such risky builds. EffOrt is REALLY REALLY good, but he is a guy who has not won a starleague and is on a 8 game losing streak here. Movie, is also really inconsistant beating jaedong and leta one day, losing to Justin the other.
CJ's players have big names, but not great skills in my opinion. Oz's players aren't that great either, but they're underestimated so much while CJ's players are overhyped
Iris has been 1-1 in the playoffs so far, and his comeback vs FBH? Lol not playing well is a bit much, but likely he will win his next game and continue his 50% win rate.
OZ isn't deep don't even kid yourself. They can clearly get wins though, don't necessarily need to be CJ deep to win especially in this format. But how is skyhigh inconsistent. He raped Leta 2x, whooped on great and defeated Lomo, he lost in an odd manner vs Stork but hes been rock solid so far. Lol at 8 game losing streak, while he technically is a SIX GAME losing streak. Come on he just saved CJ from the Wrath of Khan then lost 3-0 to his teammate and those lost 2 zvzs to Calm (9 pool vs 12 hatch) and 1 to jaedong. When you actually lay out the facts its not that bad, but perhaps thats why you had to inflate this losing streak?
You then toss in the fact that Effort hasn't won a starleague which is completely moot as no one except Jaedong or Savior on either team have a starleague title either. CJ players have big names but not great skills? Uh how do you think they got these big names? They werent dt dropping their way to victory(ok maybe Much did a few times).
On July 20 2009 08:23 TwoStep wrote: "The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players." Maximize my ass,
Okay, I just did some math. Note that the scenario I used is not totally representative of what happens here. I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's still interesting. Assume that for each game, Team A has 60% chance to win, and team B has 40%, except in a Super Ace match (not normal ace match). For the Super Ace match, the percentages are reversed.
Then, under the old Bo7 format, Team A would have a 71.0208% chance of winning. Under this new format, Team A has a 75.137% chance of winning.
If the percentages are 70/30 then Team A has a 87.3% and 83% change of winning; the winning percentage actually goes down, but not by much anyways.
The way it would actually maximize teams with one S-class player and little depth is if the final deciding ace match was a Bo3....which is what every STX fan wanted anyways.
So basically, STX feel gipped at the format because it allowed a less deep team to win, complained, and suggested a way that would make it easier for a less deep team to win.
Just think. CJ lost the first day to KHAN (it could have been 4-0, doesn't matter). The second day, just two of their players (beside Effort) won. And then Effort win three games and they're there. That's just what Oz needs. Just two victories in the same day and lean on Jaedong's victory machine.
In other words, this format is so that if you have depth, you're wasting your breath on winning useless games. You just need a 4-3 in the second day -and two of these games can be won by the same player - and the very same guy to win you the ace match.
That's why Oz >>>>>>> CJ. Because Jaedong >>>>>> Effort or Stork
Jaedong > Effort in the first day. And, oh, it didn't even had to go to tiebrakers. That means that Jaedong just need to win one match and they're at the finals. And no one in his team need to anything. CJ can 4-0 Oz and then Jaedong will crush Effort again.
On August 02 2009 13:04 r3z3nd3 wrote: Jaedong > Effort in the first day. And, oh, it didn't even had to go to tiebrakers. That means that Jaedong just need to win one match and they're at the finals. And no one in his team need to anything. CJ can 4-0 Oz and then Jaedong will crush Effort again.
I dunno why people keep whining about format. This is what proleague is now. Its about ace matches. There's no contract that says in Proleague the team with the most depth should win, so I don't know why people get so mad that the team with the best player wins. It happens in just about every team sport, basketball, football, etc. The team with the overall best player usually wins.
As for the specific STX vs Samsung match, Calm lost to great, then lost to Jangbi, so that's two people on the other team that your ace couldn't beat, not just one.
Yes, my team CJ lost to Hwaseung because of Jaedong in the super ace. But I think its completely fair and justified. CJ didn't play well on Day 1 and lost it there. We lost because CJ's players played bad not because of the format. At the end of the day it still comes down to who wins the games, lets just get past the format whining.
1) Jaedong will (b)eat every single prey that stands on his way. 2) All Jaedong's teammates are extremely inconsistent. 3) OZ has better lineup on Day 1. 4) SKT Zergs suck.
Conclusions:
1) SKT badly needs to win both days without ace matches. 2) Day 1 will be decisive: if OZ wins, they'll be champions. 3) To win Day 1, OZ must win one of the ZvZ and probably BackHo - Best game. 4) Double win in Day 1 ZvZ's will be almost title-clinching for either team. 5) IT WILL BE DAMN CLOSE!!
On August 06 2009 02:11 levelzx wrote: Some things are obvious:
1) Jaedong will (b)eat every single prey that stands on his way. 2) All Jaedong's teammates are extremely inconsistent. 3) OZ has better lineup on Day 1. 4) SKT Zergs suck.
Conclusions:
1) SKT badly needs to win both days without ace matches. 2) Day 1 will be decisive: if OZ wins, they'll be champions. 3) To win Day 1, OZ must win one of the ZvZ and probably BackHo - Best game. 4) Double win in Day 1 ZvZ's will be almost title-clinching for either team. 5) IT WILL BE DAMN CLOSE!!
Uh what? JD has 2 people on equal playing field on him on SKT that aren't zerg. Meaning an Ace match isn't necessarily going to be his win since he doesn't get to play a ZvZ ace.
Match will go to super acegame when jaedong is ready to fight, but suddenly SKT1 will send out Boxer who will nuke the shit out of jaedong and lead SKT1 to victory. I believe!
On July 20 2009 08:23 TwoStep wrote: "The format has already proven to fully maximize S-class players." Maximize my ass,
Okay, I just did some math. Note that the scenario I used is not totally representative of what happens here. I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's still interesting. Assume that for each game, Team A has 60% chance to win, and team B has 40%, except in a Super Ace match (not normal ace match). For the Super Ace match, the percentages are reversed.
Then, under the old Bo7 format, Team A would have a 71.0208% chance of winning. Under this new format, Team A has a 75.137% chance of winning.
If the percentages are 70/30 then Team A has a 87.3% and 83% change of winning; the winning percentage actually goes down, but not by much anyways.
The way it would actually maximize teams with one S-class player and little depth is if the final deciding ace match was a Bo3....which is what every STX fan wanted anyways.
So basically, STX feel gipped at the format because it allowed a less deep team to win, complained, and suggested a way that would make it easier for a less deep team to win.
... This math is wrong.
I'm gonna take your word for it that Team A has a 71% chance of winning a single Bo7 if it's 60/40 in single games. And we're assuming that Team B's Ace has a 60% chance of winning the Super Ace if it happens.
Team A's chances of winning under the Super Ace format are .71*.71(the probability of them winning both games) + .29*.71*2*.4 ( probability of the two teams splitting the games AND Team B's Ace winning Super Ace.) This makes the percentage for team A winning under Super Ace .668, or 66.8%, which is clearly a DECREASE in percentage for Team A, the team with the weaker ace.
For your 87% in a single Bo7 example, the percent goes down to 84.7%.
here's a proof I posted in the other thread proving that super ace maximizes s-class players:
Let p = the probability of a team winning vs the other team in a single Bo7 Let a = and let a be the probability of that team's Ace winning an ace match vs the other team's Ace. Since I am proving that the Super Ace format favors teams with dominant aces, we are going to assume that a > .5.
The probability of that team winning in the Super Ace format is this:
(chance of winning both sets) + (chance of winning 1 of the two sets)*(chance of winning super ace)
using our notation, it's
p^2 + 2p(1-p)a
so let us subtract the probability of the single Bo7 win from this number. If the result is positive, then this will show that the Super Ace format gives them an increased chance of winning from the single Bo7.
p^2 + 2p(1-p)a - p
using algebra: p^2 + 2ap - 2ap^2 - p p^2 - 2ap^2 - p + 2ap p^2(1-2a) - p(1-2a) (1-2a)(p^2 - p) (1-2a)(p-1)p (2a-1)(1-p)p
Final Result: (2a-1)(1-p)p
we know p and 1-p have to be positive, since p is a probability and therefore is between 0 and 1. Since a is > .5, 2a-1 is also positive. Therefore, the net result is positive.
Ahh...woops, did the calculations wrong for the 2nd part. Yeah, it's a small decrease. Your proof is right. I just don't get why people feel that the team with more depth is somehow "entitled" to win and if they don't, it's the format that cheated them, and not their poor performance (and everytime a team with more "depth" loses, they performed poorly in many games). And I don't get why people are having trouble with a single game deciding the entire thing, that's what ace matches were before anyways.
On August 06 2009 09:48 TwoStep wrote: Ahh...woops, did the calculations wrong for the 2nd part. Yeah, it's a small decrease. Your proof is right. I just don't get why people feel that the team with more depth is somehow "entitled" to win and if they don't, it's the format that cheated them, and not their poor performance (and everytime a team with more "depth" loses, they performed poorly in many games). And I don't get why people are having trouble with a single game deciding the entire thing, that's what ace matches were before anyways.
Yeah I don't think it makes it a worse format necessarily, just a strange one. Personally I don't really like it when on Day 2 CJ just crushes Oz, including a huge Orion upset over JD, and then it's all for nothing because JD is up to bat again for all the marbles. Not a fan of either team specifically, either.
I just did the proof cause too many people were saying that it didn't favor Aces over Depth statistically =\
What the format has done for me though is convinced me that there is much more variance in sc than most people think.
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.fomos.kr/board/photo/1237706301_1.jpg)
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for oz to win they need to bring JD out in ACE, but their chances of even REACHING the ace game in a bo7 is really slim -.-
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