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On October 13 2007 15:23 Hot_Bid wrote:
First, let's get rid of the assumption that someone getting hot and winning an OSL off one matchup is necessary "stealing" one. If anyone watched GGPlay in Daum, his road was Stork, Casy, UpMagic, Hwasin Bo3, Flash Bo5, Iris Bo5. Yes they were close series but nobody doubts GGPlay's level of play in Daum was deserving of a Starleague. You can't fault him that he didn't get to play more P's than Stork. While his ZvP historically isn't great, we had no clue about GGPlay's ZvP level during that run. GGPlay's ZvT wasn't that great before the Daum season rolled around, he flamed out pretty easily in Shinhan3.
Second, stop talking as if Stork is a guarantee to beat Jaedong if they played. Stork's PvZ problems (5-5 last 10, 32-32 overall) are just as bad as Jaedong's ZvP ones (5-5 last 10, 14-15 overall). Everyone keeps forgetting Stork has just as bad a matchup yet everyone wouldn't say that he "stole" the GomTV2 MSL if he won vs Bisu right? Stork even got eliminated by Savior and reached the finals playing exclusively PvT. He basically only won ONLY PvT, losing his PvZ and PvP series. But I didn't see anyone making comments that Stork "lucked out" to get to the MSL finals.
So everyone trying to bring down Jaedong because his ZvZ and ZvT are way above his ZvP, please shut up. Rarely does an OSL champ play all three matchups against good players in a single Starleague. Savior played only ZvT in Shinhan3, Nada didn't play TvZ in Shinhan2, Casy TvP in Shinhan1. People have weaknesses. Avoiding a certain matchup can be lucky, yes, but you can't fault a player for that. They only have 3 boX series in each OSL, its hard to have each one be a different race.
The only big favorite over Jaedong in a Bo3/Bo5 right now is Bisu. It's a tossup against Stork and Rock (regardless of what happened in OSC). He's also the only Zerg player right now who I'd give a 50% chance against Hwasin. He's just going to have to hope that a Terran or Stork can take out Bisu before he has to play him.
Great post. I really don't feel Stork is an insurmountable object against Jae pvz. That being said, any zvp for Jae is clearly a tougher mu, but if he's confident (which he should be) no one can honestly say he doesn't have at least 50-50 odds against Stork, who has had his own pvz problems.
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Braavos36402 Posts
And I'll have to say that Jaedong's ZvT level right now IS comparable to Savior in Shinhan3. People seem to forget how close Savior was to losing in both leagues:
Savior in Shinhan3:
Group stage - 1-1 had to play light to advance
Ro16: Down 0-1 vs Midas (came back to win 2-1)
Ro4: 2-2 with Iris (barely won game 5)
Savior in GomTV1
Semi1: 1-1 vs Justin (came back to win 2-1)
Semi2: 2-2 vs Hwasin (barely won game 5)
Savior won because he was clutch and had sense for the big moments, not because he was invincible.
I am as big a Savior fan as anyone but I fully understood just how close it is at the top of Progaming. People like to speak of Savior like a ZvT god but in reality he was VERY close to losing many of those ZvT series (remember the 4 pool at 1-1 vs Bifrost??)
Savior going 14-8 in ZvT during his "dominant" period is great, but it is also certainly comparable to Jaedong's ZvT run right now. I'd even go so far as to say Jaedong right now is more impressive than Savior was before. It's certainly not out of the question when you see:
Jaedong in ZvT:
12-0 last 12 games, 17-3 last 20 games
Wins over Hwasin, Light, Sea (2)
Savior NEVER got to these numbers. Yes Savior played better competition, but even versus lower-tier Terrans like Bifrost, Savior would still drop the odd game here or there. What made Savior great was his balance in all matchups.
But if you watch just ZvT games, Jaedong looks just as good if not better than Savior did in Daum/GomTV1 (and way better than Savior does now, obviously).
You can make an argument that Jaedong right now has achieved the highest level of ZvT ever in the history of Progaming (have you ever heard of 17-3 stats? wtf??). It's really quite amazing, and Jaedong deserves all the hype he's getting. I want Bisu and Savior to win this OSL but Jaedong is a fine winner too.
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United States10774 Posts
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I don't know. To me it seemed like Hwasin was doing a risky build, fell behind early, and made a game out of it when it shouldn't have been much of one. Although he used the same build to beat Savior in Proleauge immediately after that... ~_~
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On October 13 2007 05:53 zulu_nation8 wrote:
what does royal road mean
Jaedong's ZvT is Savior circa 2006 level except more refined. As long as he is not at too much of a disadvantage by the time his mutalisks come out there is no terran that can beat him. I think Flash does have somewhat of a chance though, hope they meet in starleague
I honestly don't think there is a terran out there who will beat him Bo5, he's currently better then sAviOr, July, and GGPlay, at ZvT, something i honeslty never thought i would say for any player, but this guy is just amazing, theres not really a single terran that comes to mind who will take him out in a Bo5, maybe a Bo3, IriS is pretty much the only one. Maybe Hwasin? But honestly, i don't think either could, and look at his god damn ZvZ? 74%? Or whatever it is exactly, i'm not sure. Since it's ZvZ someone could get a lucky game, maybe even a lucky series, but i would still pick him over pretty much any zerg player in the world. Protoss is his only weakness, and even that, i doubt theres a protoss besides Free, Stork, or Bisu who could take him down. Or maybe i'm over estimating him slightly in that match up.
On a side note, can anyone spell a kill E's heel for me? I was trying to use the word and forgot how to spell it, iw as thining achaelee's or soemthing, but whatever.
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@Hot_Bid:
Savior had to play on a lot worse maps than the current ones though. Big difference between beating good terrans on python, tau, blue storm vs. RLT (wtf?) and Desert Fox (WTF?!). Jaedong's entire win streak is on balanced or better maps for ZvT.
I do think Jaedong is playing the best ZvT at the moment, but what Savior did in Shinhan3 era was still the better performance. At the highest stakes on the crappiest of maps Savior managed to win.
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@ Monkeyspanker: It's spelled "Achilles' Heel"
@Hotbid: Great posts, I'd have to agree with almost all you said, although I'd put forth that Oov's 27-0 TvZ streak was more impressive than Jaedong's current ZvT win-streak. :3
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sAviOr
July
Jaedong
A comparison of zvt during each players best win streak in 20 games.
sAviOr posted these results in the MSL and proleague. July's games were mostly in the survivor and challenge tournaments. Jaedong's results are like half proleague and half osc/odt.
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I don't think I have much to contribute in the way of analysis, but let me just say Jaedong is simply a badass for using his name as his nick.
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Live2Win
United States6657 Posts
I agree completely with Hot_Bid.
Another point I'd like to add is that Savior's games were generally extremely close. His RLT match vs Midas, his Arkanoid match vs IriS, his 2 base fast defiler tech match vs Hwasin, 5 pool vs Justin, these were all epic games that left us gripping in our seats. They were great games and were the most epic games out there, but that's just it, they were so close.
JaeDong's games just spell dominance. I can't think of a single ZvT game during his 12 game win-streak where JaeDong just barely wins. Most if not all of them (though I don't remember all 12) were him fairly dominating his opponent with his insane muta micro followed by his insane lair play and hive play.
Savior's games were great to watch, but JaeDong's games imo show more dominance.
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Russian Federation4333 Posts
On October 14 2007 04:03 MoNKeYSpanKeR wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2007 05:53 zulu_nation8 wrote:
what does royal road mean
Jaedong's ZvT is Savior circa 2006 level except more refined. As long as he is not at too much of a disadvantage by the time his mutalisks come out there is no terran that can beat him. I think Flash does have somewhat of a chance though, hope they meet in starleague I honestly don't think there is a terran out there who will beat him Bo5, he's currently better then sAviOr, July, and GGPlay, at ZvT, something i honeslty never thought i would say for any player, but this guy is just amazing, theres not really a single terran that comes to mind who will take him out in a Bo5, maybe a Bo3, IriS is pretty much the only one. Maybe Hwasin? But honestly, i don't think either could, and look at his god damn ZvZ? 74%? Or whatever it is exactly, i'm not sure. Since it's ZvZ someone could get a lucky game, maybe even a lucky series, but i would still pick him over pretty much any zerg player in the world. Protoss is his only weakness, and even that, i doubt theres a protoss besides Free, Stork, or Bisu who could take him down. Or maybe i'm over estimating him slightly in that match up. On a side note, can anyone spell a kill E's heel for me? I was trying to use the word and forgot how to spell it, iw as thining achaelee's or soemthing, but whatever.
It is hard to say how JD would preform in a clutch situation like a BO5 in SL semis or finals. Keep in mind he is pretty much untested in SL. What if he choaks or he gets very nervous at a higher level of competition? Both Iris and Hwasin have a 50/50 chance against JD in a BO5. They have experience on their side.
In my opinion the Terran with the most chances of beating JD is Casy.
Jaedong is a lair heavy zerg against Casy preforms his best. Casy's TvZ weakness is hive tech.
But then again maybe I am too much of a Casy fan.
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Braavos36402 Posts
Casy is not in shape right now.
And I wouldn't say Jaedong is "lair heavy" because his defiler control is so perfect--he's the best defiler user right now.
I'd say Hwasin on the current set of maps is 50/50 with Jaedong in a bo5. Every other Terran is an underdog.
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On October 13 2007 05:50 alffla wrote:
i love jaedong man
his name is cool
he looks cool
his zvt is cool as fuck
GOGO 이제동!!!!!!!!!!!
His name is his name, btw. Real name: Lee Jae Dong. Kinda makes his nick less cool to me. Although I guess in the early days lots of players went into tournaments under their real names.
Edit: Oops didn't see azndsh had just said that.
Anyways, what seals it for me is that he beat Hwasin. I'd like to see how he does against Iris, which is a possibility in the tournament.
Jae really is pretty weak against toss. He has only met up with Stork and Bisu once each, and lost both, as well as lots of losses to free and Rock and Much, who if he cannot beat there's no way he's beating Bisu.
Stork's PvZ isn't good, but it's not BAD. Jaedong's ZvP is mediocre at best.
It will all come down to how the pieces fall into the Ro8 bracket. If Bisu gets July or Hwasin or Stork early on and gets taken out, who knows... Unfortunately I don't know how the groups -> Ro8 placement works. (if there is a thread that explains that please PM me btw)
Edit again: I just realized that we'll see how Stork and Jaedong fare against each other in their group anyways
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Didn't Jaedong lose to Rock recently in a BO3?
Jaedong does have incredibly strong TvZ though (I don't really remember any epic ZvZ games from him).
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On October 14 2007 12:46 Cambium wrote:
Didn't Jaedong lose to Rock recently in a BO3?
Jaedong does have incredibly strong TvZ though (I don't really remember any epic ZvZ games from him).
Lost 1-3 in a bo5.. sadly
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United States1655 Posts
On October 14 2007 04:14 NovaTheFeared wrote:
@Hot_Bid:
Savior had to play on a lot worse maps than the current ones though. Big difference between beating good terrans on python, tau, blue storm vs. RLT (wtf?) and Desert Fox (WTF?!). Jaedong's entire win streak is on balanced or better maps for ZvT.
I do think Jaedong is playing the best ZvT at the moment, but what Savior did in Shinhan3 era was still the better performance. At the highest stakes on the crappiest of maps Savior managed to win.
This is very true.
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On October 18 2007 06:54 SigrUn wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2007 04:14 NovaTheFeared wrote:
@Hot_Bid:
Savior had to play on a lot worse maps than the current ones though. Big difference between beating good terrans on python, tau, blue storm vs. RLT (wtf?) and Desert Fox (WTF?!). Jaedong's entire win streak is on balanced or better maps for ZvT.
I do think Jaedong is playing the best ZvT at the moment, but what Savior did in Shinhan3 era was still the better performance. At the highest stakes on the crappiest of maps Savior managed to win. This is very true.
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i always secretly wondered if the map makers were just trying to make savior lose when they were designing them, because after bisu beat him the map pools started balancing out.
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Calgary26003 Posts
On October 14 2007 04:14 NovaTheFeared wrote:
@Hot_Bid:
Savior had to play on a lot worse maps than the current ones though. Big difference between beating good terrans on python, tau, blue storm vs. RLT (wtf?) and Desert Fox (WTF?!). Jaedong's entire win streak is on balanced or better maps for ZvT.
I do think Jaedong is playing the best ZvT at the moment, but what Savior did in Shinhan3 era was still the better performance. At the highest stakes on the crappiest of maps Savior managed to win.
This is a really good point. Some of those maps are uphill battles the entire game. RLT is hard, Arkanoid is very hard, and Desert Fox is just dumb.
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On October 14 2007 11:26 TheTyranid wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2007 04:03 MoNKeYSpanKeR wrote:On October 13 2007 05:53 zulu_nation8 wrote:
what does royal road mean
Jaedong's ZvT is Savior circa 2006 level except more refined. As long as he is not at too much of a disadvantage by the time his mutalisks come out there is no terran that can beat him. I think Flash does have somewhat of a chance though, hope they meet in starleague I honestly don't think there is a terran out there who will beat him Bo5, he's currently better then sAviOr, July, and GGPlay, at ZvT, something i honeslty never thought i would say for any player, but this guy is just amazing, theres not really a single terran that comes to mind who will take him out in a Bo5, maybe a Bo3, IriS is pretty much the only one. Maybe Hwasin? But honestly, i don't think either could, and look at his god damn ZvZ? 74%? Or whatever it is exactly, i'm not sure. Since it's ZvZ someone could get a lucky game, maybe even a lucky series, but i would still pick him over pretty much any zerg player in the world. Protoss is his only weakness, and even that, i doubt theres a protoss besides Free, Stork, or Bisu who could take him down. Or maybe i'm over estimating him slightly in that match up. On a side note, can anyone spell a kill E's heel for me? I was trying to use the word and forgot how to spell it, iw as thining achaelee's or soemthing, but whatever. It is hard to say how JD would preform in a clutch situation like a BO5 in SL semis or finals. Keep in mind he is pretty much untested in SL. What if he choaks or he gets very nervous at a higher level of competition? Both Iris and Hwasin have a 50/50 chance against JD in a BO5. They have experience on their side. In my opinion the Terran with the most chances of beating JD is Casy. Jaedong is a lair heavy zerg against Casy preforms his best. Casy's TvZ weakness is hive tech. But then again maybe I am too much of a Casy fan.
not really, lair/macro heavy z's, especially one who does it as cleanly as jaedong, are very hard to outmicro because there arent really many holes to exploit. theres only so much you can do with 12 rines vs 6 control groups. the hive tech z's are the ones who rely on outsmarting/outpositioning/outmicroing terran, and that is where casy excels.
i cant imagine casy doing exceptionally well vs jaedong, even when he was in his prime.
honestly nada on a hot streak is the only terran id pick as a pretty solid favorite on him, only terran who can keep up with his mechanics in all areas.
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EPT
