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Relevant statistics from this season (since October 1st, 2009), ranked in order of overall win percentage. I'm including games played in offline qualifiers to increase the sample size.
 Flash
TvT 20 - 4 (83.33%)
TvZ 36 - 8 (81.82%)
TvP 20 - 4 (83.33%)
overall 76 - 16 (82.61%) (lol flash)
 ZerO
ZvZ 17 - 10 (62.96%)
ZvP 14 - 7 (66.67%)
ZvT 16 - 8 (66.67%)
overall 47 - 25 (65.28%)
BaBy
TvT 12 - 7 (63.16%)
TvZ 20 - 9 (68.97%)
TvP 8 - 7 (53.33%)
overall 40 - 23 (63.49%)
 Kal
PvP 7 - 4 (63.64%)
PvZ 20 - 16 (55.56%)
PvT 19 - 7 (73.08%)
overall 46 - 27 (63.01%)
Movie
PvP 10 - 9 (52.63%)
PvZ 18 - 11 (62.07%)
PvT 10 - 10 (50.00%)
overall 38 - 30 (55.88%)
fOrGG
TvT 7 - 9 (43.75%)
TvZ 14 - 6 (70.00%)
TvP 5 - 8 (38.46%)
overall 26 - 23 (53.06%)
EffOrt
ZvZ 13 - 16 (44.83%)
ZvP 13 - 4 (76.47%)
ZvT 10 - 13 (43.48%)
overall 36 - 33 (52.17%)
Pure
PvP 3 - 6 (33.33%)
PvZ 10 - 11 (47.62%)
PvT 12 - 7 (63.16%)
overall 25 - 24 (51.02%)
I think zero is the clear favorite over effort. Everything else seems like it will play out the same, however. My money is on flash vs zero finals, but kal might upset zero.
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When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say 
I BELIEVE
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On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE
You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP.
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This is just a fun little statistical analysis that takes nothing from recent form or quality of games that were won/lost, I don't see it as a serious discussion saying "durr Flash has exactly 71% chance of winning the OSL" (although he does, and it's probably higher than that, lol). Don't see why some people in this thread seem to think it is and start bashing 
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lol the cj fans are really coming out of the woodwork after effort's brilliant performance yesterday
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On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP.
ForGG not winning a macro war? Hmmmm.
Blind faith for the win, ForGG will definetly 2-0 Kal and proceed to advance to the finals...
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Baa?21247 Posts
On April 19 2010 08:38 Vasoline73 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP. ForGG not winning a macro war? Hmmmm. Blind faith for the win, ForGG will definetly 2-0 Kal and proceed to advance to the finals...
Lol.
Stove > ForGG. Never forget.
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is awesome32281 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well. When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P
EffOrt vs Stork, Proleague Playoffs, Khan vs CJ super ace match.
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Lol, Flash vs Movie rematch. Damn that would be sooo gai.
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effort was known for zvt and then zvz i'm pretty sure. was never thought of as particularly good vp
edit: but his tlpd certainly looks pretty
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On April 19 2010 08:45 IntoTheWow wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well. When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P EffOrt vs Stork, Proleague Playoffs, Khan vs CJ super ace match.
so we're allowed to cite games almost a year old?
honestly the best indicator of a potential effort vs kal series is their WL game where Kal was tearing shit up a long time but then blew it in the last 5 minutes.
Effort plays a strong defensive style but I think he's way too predictable and will lose to Kal in a Bo5. But really i'm going to pick Zero over Effort in the Ro8.
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I bet on Flash vs Zero finals.
But who knows. This is SC 
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Can't believe as recently as last July you probably would have put Effort as the favorite over Flash in a BO5 (right after Flash's as unimpressive as a 3-0 can get win over July in GOM, and right before Effort lost 3-0 to Iris and it was looking like Flash vs Effort finals).
Now ELO says 94-6? I would definitely take 94:6 odds betting on Effort but it's still a sad fall.
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sort of just a wondering thought:
I remember around last summer in an interview flash said he only practiced like 10-20 games a day (a LOT less than most progamers). I wonder if he just suddenly started practicing as much as JD around august and that's why he's so good again?
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Effort vs Flash finals INCOMING!!! effort has earned a special place n my heart after the OSL Ro16 Tiebreakers
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I would like to make an insightful post about an upset, however Flash seems not to underestimate anyone, so it is really unlikely it will happen.
Kal's riding a god momentum, while ForGG aint stacking results in PL and he is likely to be depended upon by KT, while the lineup of STX is able to give Kal some breathing room.
The two mirrors are really a coinflip (FvT is not a mirror matchup).
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ELO definitely doesnt account for everything. i, for one, am totally rooting for a ForGG individual league teammate backstab finals!
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fOrGG denying Flash his Golden Mouse would be hilarious.
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EPT
