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I have a spreadsheet, located here, that lets me calculate the chances of each player in the OSL or MSL round of 8 to win the whole thing based on matchup-specific ELO values from TLPD. Who it picks to win the gold should be no surprise, but the silver pick was a bit of a shock. But first, the chances of winning it all:
 Flash 71% (!!!!)
 Kal 10%
 ZerO 7%
EffOrt 6%
BaBy, Movie, Pure, fOrGG 2%
Flash's ELO being ridiculously high, combined with Stork and Jaedong being knocked out of the OSL, puts him at a very high percent chance to win the OSL. Let's look at the most likely scenario for how he gets there:
Round of 8:
Flash (90%) vs BaBy (10%)
Movie (56%) vs Pure (44%)
EffOrt (60%) vs ZerO (40%)
Kal (88%) vs fOrGG (12%)
Notes: Effort's ZvZ woes have been more documented than ZerO's, but ZerO's are even worse, losing to Peace and GoRush to give him a ZvZ ELO of 2050 compared to Effort's 2097. fOrGG looks unlikely to beat Kal again with his 1998 vs P ELO.
Round of 4:
Flash (95%) vs Movie (5%)
EffOrt (68%) vs Kal (32%)
Flash's WL play cemented him as an excellent TvPer, while Movie has been mediocre at best vs Terrans. Effort has not been slumping against Protoss whatsoever, and Kal has failed to take out any big-name Zergs.
Finals:
Flash (94%) vs EffOrt (6%)
Now, roMAD reported that Effort took a lot of games off Flash in practice before the last MSL finals, but practice games are not included in ELO, and Flash's TvZ performance is certainly a heavy favorite to stomp Effort's ZvT failures.
A big reason why Flash is so favored is that Effort and Movie, two CJ players who are bad against Terran, have relatively easy paths until they get to Flash. Flash would likely still be the favorite without this Ro8 pairing, but not by as much.
Most one sided finals: Unfortunately, this is also the most likely finals, Flash vs EffOrt.
Closest finals: BaBy (53%) vs EffOrt (47%) or ZerO (53%) vs Movie (47%)
Most one sided possible matchup: Flash vs Movie
Closest possible matchup: fOrGG (52%) vs ZerO (48%)
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Baa?21244 Posts
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
this is all based on elo
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ZerO vs EffOrt is a big uncertainty 40 vs 60,
what if zero win ?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
Go look at Effort's recent stats vs Protoss. They're not bad.
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On April 19 2010 07:07 kiendudu wrote:ZerO vs EffOrt is a big uncertainty 40 vs 60, what if zero win ?
Probably a similar result as if Effort wins, i.e. he beats Kal but loses to Flash.
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
Effort playing vs protoss is not the same Effort we see when he plays vs zerg or terran.
And Kal is known to choke against strong zergs.
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this is kal's OSL
LEGEND OF THE SPRING
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On April 19 2010 07:10 SuperArc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol. Effort playing vs protoss is not the same Effort we see when he plays vs zerg or terran. And Kal is known to choke against strong zergs Jaedong.
fixed
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3 Lions
United States3705 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
Kal's vs Z recently hasn't been great and he only has a 56% win in that MU.
Effort's vs P is 6-4 in his last 10 (not great either, I'll admit) but he has a 73% win vs P. He's also 3-1 vs Kal all time.
Won't be surprised at all if Effort beats Kal.
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Love the STX fans coming out and bashing even though this was a completely unbiased analysis based on ELO. They say SKT/KT/CJ fans are obnoxious (and it's true) but....
Anyway this is really nice, thanks! I wish people did such analyses for leagues more often! It would be cool if we could dig out historical ELO data and see how good of a predictor this method is (for past leagues).
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On April 19 2010 07:11 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:10 SuperArc wrote:On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol. Effort playing vs protoss is not the same Effort we see when he plays vs zerg or terran. And Kal is known to choke against strong zergs Jaedong. fixed
0-4 against Zero, 1-3 against Effort, 3-13 against Jaedong, 2-2 against July
Kal is not good against strong ZvPers. Hell he even lost to Effort THIS WL.
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interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating?
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Baa?21244 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating?
It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well.
When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T
As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P
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Well, i think zero will beat zero.
Anyway flash will definetly win.
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On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P
The point is he just chose a reasonable tool and used it, without adding any personal spin to it. I agree that ELO isn't by any means a perfect way of predicting the outcome of a matchup, but that wasn't his point.
Honestly it'd be worse if you just chose an arbitrary cutoff from which to start applying results or something like that.
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Braavos36392 Posts
i really hope its effort vs flash finals so i can cheer super hard for an unlikely underdog story
i mean, i cheered for movie last osl but we all knew that wasn't happening, and there's something special about zvt
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If you base it on elo, of course Flash is the favorite...
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:59 Hot_Bid wrote:
i really hope its effort vs flash finals so i can cheer super hard for an unlikely underdog story
i mean, i cheered for movie last osl but we all knew that wasn't happening, and there's something special about zvt
I'd love this to happen. I'd love EffOrt to turn it all around on the back of an improbable OSL win.
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ELO is not a mesure of current skill it is always delayed.. but yeah unless flash has a freak accident or something he will win these finals.. my hopes are in for fOrGG as i would love to see him in the finals.. ohh well one can dream
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EPT
