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I have a spreadsheet, located here, that lets me calculate the chances of each player in the OSL or MSL round of 8 to win the whole thing based on matchup-specific ELO values from TLPD. Who it picks to win the gold should be no surprise, but the silver pick was a bit of a shock. But first, the chances of winning it all:
 Flash 71% (!!!!)
 Kal 10%
 ZerO 7%
EffOrt 6%
BaBy, Movie, Pure, fOrGG 2%
Flash's ELO being ridiculously high, combined with Stork and Jaedong being knocked out of the OSL, puts him at a very high percent chance to win the OSL. Let's look at the most likely scenario for how he gets there:
Round of 8:
Flash (90%) vs BaBy (10%)
Movie (56%) vs Pure (44%)
EffOrt (60%) vs ZerO (40%)
Kal (88%) vs fOrGG (12%)
Notes: Effort's ZvZ woes have been more documented than ZerO's, but ZerO's are even worse, losing to Peace and GoRush to give him a ZvZ ELO of 2050 compared to Effort's 2097. fOrGG looks unlikely to beat Kal again with his 1998 vs P ELO.
Round of 4:
Flash (95%) vs Movie (5%)
EffOrt (68%) vs Kal (32%)
Flash's WL play cemented him as an excellent TvPer, while Movie has been mediocre at best vs Terrans. Effort has not been slumping against Protoss whatsoever, and Kal has failed to take out any big-name Zergs.
Finals:
Flash (94%) vs EffOrt (6%)
Now, roMAD reported that Effort took a lot of games off Flash in practice before the last MSL finals, but practice games are not included in ELO, and Flash's TvZ performance is certainly a heavy favorite to stomp Effort's ZvT failures.
A big reason why Flash is so favored is that Effort and Movie, two CJ players who are bad against Terran, have relatively easy paths until they get to Flash. Flash would likely still be the favorite without this Ro8 pairing, but not by as much.
Most one sided finals: Unfortunately, this is also the most likely finals, Flash vs EffOrt.
Closest finals: BaBy (53%) vs EffOrt (47%) or ZerO (53%) vs Movie (47%)
Most one sided possible matchup: Flash vs Movie
Closest possible matchup: fOrGG (52%) vs ZerO (48%)
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Baa?21244 Posts
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
this is all based on elo
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ZerO vs EffOrt is a big uncertainty 40 vs 60,
what if zero win ?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
Go look at Effort's recent stats vs Protoss. They're not bad.
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On April 19 2010 07:07 kiendudu wrote:ZerO vs EffOrt is a big uncertainty 40 vs 60, what if zero win ?
Probably a similar result as if Effort wins, i.e. he beats Kal but loses to Flash.
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
Effort playing vs protoss is not the same Effort we see when he plays vs zerg or terran.
And Kal is known to choke against strong zergs.
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this is kal's OSL
LEGEND OF THE SPRING
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On April 19 2010 07:10 SuperArc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol. Effort playing vs protoss is not the same Effort we see when he plays vs zerg or terran. And Kal is known to choke against strong zergs Jaedong.
fixed
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3 Lions
United States3705 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
Kal's vs Z recently hasn't been great and he only has a 56% win in that MU.
Effort's vs P is 6-4 in his last 10 (not great either, I'll admit) but he has a 73% win vs P. He's also 3-1 vs Kal all time.
Won't be surprised at all if Effort beats Kal.
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Love the STX fans coming out and bashing even though this was a completely unbiased analysis based on ELO. They say SKT/KT/CJ fans are obnoxious (and it's true) but....
Anyway this is really nice, thanks! I wish people did such analyses for leagues more often! It would be cool if we could dig out historical ELO data and see how good of a predictor this method is (for past leagues).
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On April 19 2010 07:11 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:10 SuperArc wrote:On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol. Effort playing vs protoss is not the same Effort we see when he plays vs zerg or terran. And Kal is known to choke against strong zergs Jaedong. fixed
0-4 against Zero, 1-3 against Effort, 3-13 against Jaedong, 2-2 against July
Kal is not good against strong ZvPers. Hell he even lost to Effort THIS WL.
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interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating?
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Baa?21244 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating?
It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well.
When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T
As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P
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Well, i think zero will beat zero.
Anyway flash will definetly win.
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On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P
The point is he just chose a reasonable tool and used it, without adding any personal spin to it. I agree that ELO isn't by any means a perfect way of predicting the outcome of a matchup, but that wasn't his point.
Honestly it'd be worse if you just chose an arbitrary cutoff from which to start applying results or something like that.
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Braavos36392 Posts
i really hope its effort vs flash finals so i can cheer super hard for an unlikely underdog story
i mean, i cheered for movie last osl but we all knew that wasn't happening, and there's something special about zvt
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If you base it on elo, of course Flash is the favorite...
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:59 Hot_Bid wrote:
i really hope its effort vs flash finals so i can cheer super hard for an unlikely underdog story
i mean, i cheered for movie last osl but we all knew that wasn't happening, and there's something special about zvt
I'd love this to happen. I'd love EffOrt to turn it all around on the back of an improbable OSL win.
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ELO is not a mesure of current skill it is always delayed.. but yeah unless flash has a freak accident or something he will win these finals.. my hopes are in for fOrGG as i would love to see him in the finals.. ohh well one can dream
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Relevant statistics from this season (since October 1st, 2009), ranked in order of overall win percentage. I'm including games played in offline qualifiers to increase the sample size.
Flash
TvT 20 - 4 (83.33%)
TvZ 36 - 8 (81.82%)
TvP 20 - 4 (83.33%)
overall 76 - 16 (82.61%) (lol flash)
ZerO
ZvZ 17 - 10 (62.96%)
ZvP 14 - 7 (66.67%)
ZvT 16 - 8 (66.67%)
overall 47 - 25 (65.28%)
BaBy
TvT 12 - 7 (63.16%)
TvZ 20 - 9 (68.97%)
TvP 8 - 7 (53.33%)
overall 40 - 23 (63.49%)
Kal
PvP 7 - 4 (63.64%)
PvZ 20 - 16 (55.56%)
PvT 19 - 7 (73.08%)
overall 46 - 27 (63.01%)
Movie
PvP 10 - 9 (52.63%)
PvZ 18 - 11 (62.07%)
PvT 10 - 10 (50.00%)
overall 38 - 30 (55.88%)
fOrGG
TvT 7 - 9 (43.75%)
TvZ 14 - 6 (70.00%)
TvP 5 - 8 (38.46%)
overall 26 - 23 (53.06%)
EffOrt
ZvZ 13 - 16 (44.83%)
ZvP 13 - 4 (76.47%)
ZvT 10 - 13 (43.48%)
overall 36 - 33 (52.17%)
Pure
PvP 3 - 6 (33.33%)
PvZ 10 - 11 (47.62%)
PvT 12 - 7 (63.16%)
overall 25 - 24 (51.02%)
I think zero is the clear favorite over effort. Everything else seems like it will play out the same, however. My money is on flash vs zero finals, but kal might upset zero.
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When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say 
I BELIEVE
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On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE
You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP.
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This is just a fun little statistical analysis that takes nothing from recent form or quality of games that were won/lost, I don't see it as a serious discussion saying "durr Flash has exactly 71% chance of winning the OSL" (although he does, and it's probably higher than that, lol). Don't see why some people in this thread seem to think it is and start bashing 
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lol the cj fans are really coming out of the woodwork after effort's brilliant performance yesterday
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On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP.
ForGG not winning a macro war? Hmmmm.
Blind faith for the win, ForGG will definetly 2-0 Kal and proceed to advance to the finals...
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Baa?21244 Posts
On April 19 2010 08:38 Vasoline73 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP. ForGG not winning a macro war? Hmmmm. Blind faith for the win, ForGG will definetly 2-0 Kal and proceed to advance to the finals...
Lol.
Stove > ForGG. Never forget.
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is awesome32278 Posts
On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well. When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P
EffOrt vs Stork, Proleague Playoffs, Khan vs CJ super ace match.
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Lol, Flash vs Movie rematch. Damn that would be sooo gai.
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effort was known for zvt and then zvz i'm pretty sure. was never thought of as particularly good vp
edit: but his tlpd certainly looks pretty
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On April 19 2010 08:45 IntoTheWow wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well. When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P EffOrt vs Stork, Proleague Playoffs, Khan vs CJ super ace match.
so we're allowed to cite games almost a year old?
honestly the best indicator of a potential effort vs kal series is their WL game where Kal was tearing shit up a long time but then blew it in the last 5 minutes.
Effort plays a strong defensive style but I think he's way too predictable and will lose to Kal in a Bo5. But really i'm going to pick Zero over Effort in the Ro8.
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I bet on Flash vs Zero finals.
But who knows. This is SC 
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Can't believe as recently as last July you probably would have put Effort as the favorite over Flash in a BO5 (right after Flash's as unimpressive as a 3-0 can get win over July in GOM, and right before Effort lost 3-0 to Iris and it was looking like Flash vs Effort finals).
Now ELO says 94-6? I would definitely take 94:6 odds betting on Effort but it's still a sad fall.
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sort of just a wondering thought:
I remember around last summer in an interview flash said he only practiced like 10-20 games a day (a LOT less than most progamers). I wonder if he just suddenly started practicing as much as JD around august and that's why he's so good again?
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Effort vs Flash finals INCOMING!!! effort has earned a special place n my heart after the OSL Ro16 Tiebreakers
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I would like to make an insightful post about an upset, however Flash seems not to underestimate anyone, so it is really unlikely it will happen.
Kal's riding a god momentum, while ForGG aint stacking results in PL and he is likely to be depended upon by KT, while the lineup of STX is able to give Kal some breathing room.
The two mirrors are really a coinflip (FvT is not a mirror matchup).
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ELO definitely doesnt account for everything. i, for one, am totally rooting for a ForGG individual league teammate backstab finals!
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fOrGG denying Flash his Golden Mouse would be hilarious.
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BaBy vs effort sure would not be that close (53%to47%)
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On April 19 2010 08:40 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:38 Vasoline73 wrote:On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP. ForGG not winning a macro war? Hmmmm. Blind faith for the win, ForGG will definetly 2-0 Kal and proceed to advance to the finals... Lol. Stove > ForGG. Never forget.
Series, ForGG  . Arena MSL ForGG is back, going to win this OSL. lol. At this point I wouldn't mind him taking the title from Flash... even though that's pretty much impossible :X.
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On April 19 2010 10:21 Vasoline73 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:40 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 08:38 Vasoline73 wrote:On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP. ForGG not winning a macro war? Hmmmm. Blind faith for the win, ForGG will definetly 2-0 Kal and proceed to advance to the finals... Lol. Stove > ForGG. Never forget. Series, ForGG . Arena MSL ForGG is back, going to win this OSL. lol. At this point I wouldn't mind him taking the title from Flash... even though that's pretty much impossible :X.
yeah, about as much chance of happening as him taking down jaedong
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Heres to hoping someone pulls a Mind.
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On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP.
What? Macro is about the only thing ForGG is good at
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On April 19 2010 10:41 ArC_man wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP. What? Macro is about the only thing ForGG is good at
forgg is famous for his timing attacks, not his macro. is macro is definitely not sub-par, but his timing is often perfect to the second.
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ForGG used to be pretty famous for his macro, but it doesn't matter if he can't position his tank correctly in PvT.
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I bet on Zero/Kal vs. Baby finals
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Flash vs. ForGG would be so great!
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Effort's OSL run is going to be less impressive than by.hero's, type-b's, or Shine's.
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On April 19 2010 11:38 MountainDewJunkie wrote:Effort's OSL run is going to be less impressive than by. hero's, type-b's, or Shine's.
Actually all those players had pretty impressive runs...
But yeah I would rather have Hyvaa than Effort...
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Who cares whether Effort, Kal or Zero will make it to the finals when Flash will definitely win this OSL?
Much simpler analysis for OSL imo:
1. Flash: YES
2. Jaedong: NO
3. Conclusion: Flash to win the Korea Air OSL.
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is awesome32278 Posts
On April 19 2010 09:12 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:45 IntoTheWow wrote:On April 19 2010 07:18 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 07:14 integral wrote:
interesting analysis, unfortunately ELO isn't a good measure of recent trends for each player. For example, I would put zero a 60 to 40 favorite over effort right now, not the other way around. Interestingly enough though I would say that effort would have a better shot of beating kal than zero. Either way I anticipate zero or kal being in the finals.
Also -- are these brackets confirmed or are you just speculating? It's confirmed. 3 mirror matches in the Ro8 which is kind of unfortunate, but oh well. When it's Kal vs. Zero I'll be sad and I won't know who to cheer for T_T As for unbiased analysis: it just means that it's a flawed methodology. You guys should actually watch Kal's PvZ games. Effort's ZvP wins have all looked ugly as hell, whereas Kal loses in close games or wins in dominating fashion. Beyond the occasional terribly executed 2-gate =P EffOrt vs Stork, Proleague Playoffs, Khan vs CJ super ace match. so we're allowed to cite games almost a year old? honestly the best indicator of a potential effort vs kal series is their WL game where Kal was tearing shit up a long time but then blew it in the last 5 minutes. Effort plays a strong defensive style but I think he's way too predictable and will lose to Kal in a Bo5. But really i'm going to pick Zero over Effort in the Ro8.
High pressure games, in a specific match-up, against good opponents don't happen everyday.
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zero is better than effort at every matchup and everyone else is better vZ than effort is against their race
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guys, please don't get too heated up / flamed over this topic. OP did a fantastic job with analysis given what data he had about ELO (using Kespa rankings would be epic fail), and it was really interesting to read.
The fact is that, as pro SCBW fans, we want to make guesses, we want to speculate who will win, etc., and we gotta use what we have. The OP here simply decided to use the statistics from the better ranking system (ELO vs Kespa) to try and determine that end. It sure is better than all the fanboys screaming fake facts and starting fights over false data.
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51579 Posts
beat flash osl analysis from myself has baby as the front runner.
then kal and zero.
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United States10328 Posts
On April 19 2010 10:48 majesty.k)seRapH wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 10:41 ArC_man wrote:On April 19 2010 08:29 lone_hydra wrote:On April 19 2010 08:28 Vasoline73 wrote:When ForGG beats Kal I wonder what the STX fans will have to say I BELIEVE You better hope to god forgg devices 2 ingenious timing pushes or cheeses, cause he is not winning in the macro war that is standard TvP. What? Macro is about the only thing ForGG is good at forgg is famous for his timing attacks, not his macro. is macro is definitely not sub-par, but his timing is often perfect to the second.
ohhh but during his arena win, forgg was famous for making more units than anyone but oov :O
also I remember when mind was an awesome timing attacker... darn.
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The real question about BaBy is how he'll deal with the pressure of later stages of a starleague. He's been quite impressive nerve-wise so far, though.
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Baa?21244 Posts
On April 19 2010 12:18 nayumi wrote:
Who cares whether Effort, Kal or Zero will make it to the finals when Flash will definitely win this OSL?
Much simpler analysis for OSL imo:
1. Flash: YES
2. Jaedong: NO
3. Conclusion: Flash to win the Korea Air OSL.
Better analysis:
1. Kal wasn't eliminated in Offlines.
2. Jaedong absent.
3. Conclusion: Kal will win the Korean Air OSL.
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Baby has got this, anyone who says otherwise is blind Flash fanboy.
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On April 19 2010 16:03 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 12:18 nayumi wrote:
Who cares whether Effort, Kal or Zero will make it to the finals when Flash will definitely win this OSL?
Much simpler analysis for OSL imo:
1. Flash: YES
2. Jaedong: NO
3. Conclusion: Flash to win the Korea Air OSL.
Better analysis: 1. Kal wasn't eliminated in Offlines. 2. Jaedong absent. 3. Conclusion: Kal will win the Korean Air OSL.
except the last three games they faced, kal got 3-0'd, overall record is 1-5 against flash with the only win being DT rush when flash was in his "i dont need turrets" phase
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Baa?21244 Posts
On April 19 2010 16:10 saltywet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 16:03 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 12:18 nayumi wrote:
Who cares whether Effort, Kal or Zero will make it to the finals when Flash will definitely win this OSL?
Much simpler analysis for OSL imo:
1. Flash: YES
2. Jaedong: NO
3. Conclusion: Flash to win the Korea Air OSL.
Better analysis: 1. Kal wasn't eliminated in Offlines. 2. Jaedong absent. 3. Conclusion: Kal will win the Korean Air OSL. except the last three games they faced, kal got 3-0'd, overall record is 1-5 against flash with the only win being DT rush when flash was in his "i dont need turrets" phase
Everything can change in a Bo5.
We shall see, we shall see.
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On April 19 2010 16:55 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 16:10 saltywet wrote:On April 19 2010 16:03 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 12:18 nayumi wrote:
Who cares whether Effort, Kal or Zero will make it to the finals when Flash will definitely win this OSL?
Much simpler analysis for OSL imo:
1. Flash: YES
2. Jaedong: NO
3. Conclusion: Flash to win the Korea Air OSL.
Better analysis: 1. Kal wasn't eliminated in Offlines. 2. Jaedong absent. 3. Conclusion: Kal will win the Korean Air OSL. except the last three games they faced, kal got 3-0'd, overall record is 1-5 against flash with the only win being DT rush when flash was in his "i dont need turrets" phase Everything can change in a Bo5. We shall see, we shall see.
How can everything change in a Bo5. Please explain.
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Looks like Flash can expect a few phone calls from third-parties.
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
Well someone didnt read the thread properly
Awesome work jalstar, good read as a flash fan
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On April 19 2010 07:59 Hot_Bid wrote:
i really hope its effort vs flash finals so i can cheer super hard for an unlikely underdog story
i mean, i cheered for movie last osl but we all knew that wasn't happening, and there's something special about zvt
Agreed 100%
On April 19 2010 09:02 o[twist] wrote:
effort was known for zvt and then zvz i'm pretty sure. was never thought of as particularly good vp
edit: but his tlpd certainly looks pretty
lolwut?
have you seen him play versus Protoss?
He's been known for having at least the 3rd best ZvP for a while now, personally I'd say 2nd best with only Zero to challenge that spot.
Though I do remember that the very first game that I watched him and thought "damn he's gonna be so strong" was a ZvT and a few months after that he skyrocketed showing good ZvZs beating players like Jaedong, having like 67% winrate or something.
But ZvP was always his best matchup imo.
Right now he really needs to get his shit together and stop performing badly in ZvZ and ZvT.
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Effort was like all the other great zergs in SC time first known for his epic ZvT, he used to be 15-1 or something like that in official games.
His ZvP was never bad, but beating Flash and losing to Bisu made me believe that Effort was better vT than vP.
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On April 19 2010 08:38 o[twist] wrote:
lol the cj fans are really coming out of the woodwork after effort's brilliant performance yesterday
hahahahaha
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On April 19 2010 20:38 nozaro33 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 08:38 o[twist] wrote:
lol the cj fans are really coming out of the woodwork after effort's brilliant performance yesterday hahahahaha
To be fair though I thought that his last game vs shine was beautifully played.
but yeah other than that I facepalmed quite often...
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
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On May 14 2010 23:33 jalstar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
Owned.
Amazing how the OP got it (except for Movie vs Pure).
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On May 14 2010 23:36 lolaloc wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2010 23:33 jalstar wrote:On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol. Owned. Amazing how the OP got it (except for Movie vs Pure).
actually those were the players with higher ELO. my predictions were close to that, but I LBed ZerO over EffOrt T_T
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double post, sorry
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Yeah really tip of the hat on such a fine algorithm.
Just hope its slightly less accurate for the final so that we can more than 3 games out of it ^^
Wag of the finger to all the haters....who Jalstar is naming and shaming one by one lol
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I'd be interested to see you do one retrospectively for the MSL.
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On May 14 2010 23:51 tomatriedes wrote:
I'd be interested to see you do one retrospectively for the MSL.
The problem is it would be too accurate, since the MSL games played would be included in their ELOs.
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Lurking this thread and I saw this:
On April 19 2010 16:03 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
Better analysis:
1. Kal wasn't eliminated in Offlines.
2. Jaedong absent.
3. Conclusion: Kal will win the Korean Air OSL.
I lol'd.
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On April 19 2010 17:14 J1.au wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 16:55 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 16:10 saltywet wrote:On April 19 2010 16:03 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:On April 19 2010 12:18 nayumi wrote:
Who cares whether Effort, Kal or Zero will make it to the finals when Flash will definitely win this OSL?
Much simpler analysis for OSL imo:
1. Flash: YES
2. Jaedong: NO
3. Conclusion: Flash to win the Korea Air OSL.
Better analysis: 1. Kal wasn't eliminated in Offlines. 2. Jaedong absent. 3. Conclusion: Kal will win the Korean Air OSL. except the last three games they faced, kal got 3-0'd, overall record is 1-5 against flash with the only win being DT rush when flash was in his "i dont need turrets" phase Everything can change in a Bo5. We shall see, we shall see. How can everything change in a Bo5. Please explain.
Obviously he was referring to Kal choking in Bo5 as usual.
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On April 19 2010 07:06 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
You think Effort's a favorite vs. Kal. Fucking lol.
3-0. Fucking lol.
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I forgot about this thread. It is quite interesting that OP predicted the finals by just using elo. It looked really unlikely at the beginning given Effort's past performance but he managed to sneak into final anyway.
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LOL . Maybe the secret message is that Stats always wins.
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LOL 6% chance of victory hahaha
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i39.tinypic.com/2hgfn9d.jpg)
