|
TL,
One of my personal quests for 2012 is to start doing better with Liquibet 2. I've decided I'm tired of being ranked well down in the hundreds, I want to get a good ranking. Hell, I want to win. To that end, (and because I've got nothing better to do at the moment) I've decided to make a blog about my picks and how I'm doing so far. Hopefully some of you can give me some good insight into interpreting statistics or advice on making a good pick. I'd love to hear from anyone who has a good "system" or sees any problems with the logic for my picks. So here's where I'm at with each group, and my reasons for picking (which contain Code S spoilers, per the title). Let me know what you think.
Note that since I'm poor, I don't actually have a GSL subscription. So I rarely get to watch games live, and some I don't get to see until they are uploaded to YouTube or elsewhere months later if at all. So if I'm a bit behind on things, that's probably why.
Group A: 4/4 here, but to be fair this was a pretty easy group to pick. Boxer hasn't been playing well lately and Sen's skills just can't match with Jjakji. No problems.
_______________________________________________
Group B: 2/4 points I'm wondering where I went wrong with this group. Picks: Leenock, MC, and Leenock/MC. Obviously I was way off with these.
1st: vote I picked Leenock over fOrGG. Way I saw it Leenok has a good win rate against T; and an equally good win rate against T on the opening map, Daybreak; and had taken down some top level Ts recently including MVP, Polt, and aLive. fOrGG on the other hand is relavtively unproven against Code S zergs and had a dismal win rate against zerg in ESV Korean weekly tournaments. Looks like I was right, Leenok took out fOrGG 2-0
2nd: picked MC over SuperNova. Okay, this is where things get interesting. Not sure what I missed here, Liquibet graphs show that about 1/9th did get this vote right. (some are probably fan boys, but some must have accuratly predicted this) I'm wondering if there's something I missed here that I should've seen. MC's win rate against T is a good 58.95% and on Crossfire SE he's taken down Taeja and Ryung. I'm seeing now that Supernova has taken down a number of higher level Protoss in the GSL such as Alicia and Squirtle; but overall he hasn't played many TvPs and has still fallen to some higher level players. Surely MC is considered the better player here?
3rd: MC and Leenok to take the group. I'm thinking if Leenock takes out fOrGG, and MC takes out Supernova, 3rd set of MC versus Leenok puts MC up 2-0 over Leenok. MC has a good win rate versus Zerg and has taken out Leenok 3 of the 4 games the played at the Blizzard Cup. Due to Leenock's good ZvT, I figured he would take out whoever won fOrGG vs SuperNova (I actually thought SuperNova would come out last) leaving Leenock 2-1. Obviously this didn't happen. I'm a little confused, and I can see by the Liquibet results that I'm not the only one who doubted SuperNova. Anyone see this coming? What tipped you off?
_______________________________________________
Group C: Picks: MVP, Nestea, and MVP/Nestea
1st: MVP over Lucky, I think this one is pretty obvious.
2nd: I've resisted the temptation to autovote IdrA out of fanboy-ism here. I've actually picked Nestea taking the match. This is interesting, because I really think the whole group hinges on this matchup. Idra's taken out Sheth, Machine, and Haypro in the last year and put on a good show in MLG. But the numbers don't add up for me; Nestea has a lot more games on these maps and has a shocking 84.38% win rate versus zerg. Then again, Idra has been training hard in Korea for the last month and we haven't seen him play a ZvZ since he began, so he's really a wild card here. But I've decided to go with the proven quantity here.
3rd: I've got Nestea and MVP coming out of this group. As I said, I really think this group hinges on the Idra Nestea matchup. MVP over Lucky, and Nestea over MVP. MVP looks set to win that matchup considering his impressive 70.15% win rate against Z. MVP has also won 13 of the last 3 matches between the two. If MVP does win, we either get a Nestea versus IdrA,which I again think he wins, or Nestea versus Lucky in which Nestea easily wins. In my mind IdrA only way forward would be if Nestea upsets MVP and IdrA gets a ZvT, in which he's stronger. Idk, am I crazy?
_______________________________________________
Group D: Picks: Curious, Bomber, and Bomber/Curious.
1st: I've got Curious over Oz. Curious 4-0'ed him in Code A, and has also taken down MC (twice), Choya, Puzzle, and others and has an overall 69.23% win rate in PvZ. Also ranked 4th in Korean ELO.
2nd: Bomber over Inca. Bomber has a great 68.63% win rate in TvP, compared to Inca's 52.08%. Only time they played was about a year ago in a Zotac where Bomber won, not hugely significant though. New map is a bit of a rouge element, but overall Bomber is one of the best Korean players and I just don't see him losing to Inca given his win rate.
3rd: I've got Bomber and Curious coming out of this group. But here is where things get interesting: Bomber has fallen to Oz multiple times in the past, including just this week. However, if I'm right about the first two picks, Bomber will be playing Curious. Curious's ZvT win rate is much lower at 52.27% compared with Bomber's 66.67%. They did meet twice early last year and Bomber won both matchups, but that might as well be an eternity. Curious has the higher ELO though. I think Bomber would win this matchup, forcing Curious to play winner of Oz vs Inca; which I think he would win. If I'm wrong about Bomber vs Curious though, I really think Bomber would fall to Oz...
_______________________________________________
Group E: Bets just went up, haven't actually cemeted any vote yet  Obviously MMA in the first, I'm undecided in the second, and MMA and undecided for the third.
1st: MMA versus GuMiho. Former GSL champion and arguably one of the best terran players in the world (along with MVP) versus a guy with a 50% win rate in TvT. Yeah, moving on.
2nd: God, another ZvZ matchup Zenio vs YuGiOh. I'm actually a bit lost on this one. Zenio has a much better win rate, but both have so few ZvZs under their belt I'm not sure that is significant. Both have also lost matches to high level players, Zenio lost to Nestea YuGiOh lost to Curious. Making it even harder, these two have never played each other; at least according to TLPD. I'm thinking Zenio; but I really don't know.
3rd: Well obviously MMA is coming out of this group. I'm clueless as to who the other one will be.
So there we have it. I would especially appreciate any insight on Group E, I'm clueless there. If you guys give can me some good advice on how to make better picks and/or adjust the logic by which I'm making my picks; I'll put up groups F-G later this week. Thanks for any help!
-edit: typo
  
|
I personally picked MMA and Zenio for the wins and to advance. Zenio's ZvZ is much stronger than Yugioh's, at least from winrates alone, and Yugioh does not have the best training partners either.
My picks were identical to your in all groups except in Group B, where they are completely reversed. I will admit I bought into the hype surrounding oGsFin, but I also thought Supernova would beat MC because of the travel and lack of quality practice time from MC going to HSC.
|
I picked group C exactly the same as you did.
And I went with MMA/Gumiho in group D and Zenio winning with Yugioh (Zenio is quite good ZvZ and Gumiho looked really good against zergs in the past.
And i thought Supernova would be the favorite as MC was jetlagged, had much less time to pratice, and Supernova is a very good player
|
under group E after "1st" you said MVP, i think you meant MMA
|
On January 11 2012 02:37 Bagration wrote:
I personally picked MMA and Zenio for the wins and to advance. Zenio's ZvZ is much stronger than Yugioh's, at least from winrates alone, and Yugioh does not have the best training partners either.
My picks were identical to your in all groups except in Group B, where they are completely reversed. I will admit I bought into the hype surrounding oGsFin, but I also thought Supernova would beat MC because of the travel and lack of quality practice time from MC going to HSC.
Yeah the fOrGG/Fin hype didn't get me at all. Reminded me of when Grubby transitioned from WC3. He was arguably the best WC3 player in the world for a while, while the game didn't require as good of macro as in SC; you need at least twice as good of micro and have to memorize 4 matchups along with all sorts of other crazy timings such as when certain items are spawning in certain shops. Basically you need mad RTS skills for WC3 just as for SC, but since he transitioned he has struggled. As has Nada and Boxer. Crazy RTS skills alone don't make you great at a game (though they help). I'm guessing in a few months time fin is going to be a very good player.
I'm thinking the same thing with Zenio. Now that he's on Liquid, he's also got the opportunity to practice against Ret, who is arguably the second best foreign zerg...
On January 11 2012 02:55 ishboh wrote:
under group E after "1st" you said MVP, i think you meant MMA
Yup, I sure did thanks.
On January 11 2012 02:45 Sub Zero wrote:
I picked group C exactly the same as you did.
And I went with MMA/Gumiho in group D and Zenio winning with Yugioh (Zenio is quite good ZvZ and Gumiho looked really good against zergs in the past.
And i thought Supernova would be the favorite as MC was jetlagged, had much less time to pratice, and Supernova is a very good player
Yeah, Bagration is saying the same thing about MC's schedule. I guess I need to pay more attention to the circumstancial details of the players involved?
-edit: grammar
|
On January 11 2012 03:07 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 02:37 Bagration wrote:
I personally picked MMA and Zenio for the wins and to advance. Zenio's ZvZ is much stronger than Yugioh's, at least from winrates alone, and Yugioh does not have the best training partners either.
My picks were identical to your in all groups except in Group B, where they are completely reversed. I will admit I bought into the hype surrounding oGsFin, but I also thought Supernova would beat MC because of the travel and lack of quality practice time from MC going to HSC. Yeah the fOrGG/Fin hype didn't get me at all. Reminded me of when Grubby transitioned from WC3. He was arguably the best WC3 player in the world for a while, while the game didn't require as good of macro as in SC; you need at least twice as micro and have to memorize 4 matchups along with all sorts of other crazy timings such as when certain items are spawning in certain shops. Basically you need crazy RTS skills for WC3 just as for SC, but since he transitioned he has struggled. As has Nada and Boxer. Crazy RTS skills alone don't make you great at a game (though they help). I'm guessing in a few months time fin is going to be a very good player. I'm thinking the same thing with Zenio. Now that he's on Liquid, he's also got the opportunity to practice against Ret, who is arguably the second best foreign zerg... Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 02:55 ishboh wrote:
under group E after "1st" you said MVP, i think you meant MMA Yup, I sure did thanks. Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 02:45 Sub Zero wrote:
I picked group C exactly the same as you did.
And I went with MMA/Gumiho in group D and Zenio winning with Yugioh (Zenio is quite good ZvZ and Gumiho looked really good against zergs in the past.
And i thought Supernova would be the favorite as MC was jetlagged, had much less time to pratice, and Supernova is a very good player Yeah, Bagration is saying the same thing about MC's schedule. I guess I need to pay more attention to the circumstancial details of the players involved?
I don't disagree with you, but I'm curious whether you think Stephano or Idra is the best foreign zerg?
|
On January 11 2012 03:24 TheDougler wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 03:07 TheToast wrote:On January 11 2012 02:37 Bagration wrote:
I personally picked MMA and Zenio for the wins and to advance. Zenio's ZvZ is much stronger than Yugioh's, at least from winrates alone, and Yugioh does not have the best training partners either.
My picks were identical to your in all groups except in Group B, where they are completely reversed. I will admit I bought into the hype surrounding oGsFin, but I also thought Supernova would beat MC because of the travel and lack of quality practice time from MC going to HSC. Yeah the fOrGG/Fin hype didn't get me at all. Reminded me of when Grubby transitioned from WC3. He was arguably the best WC3 player in the world for a while, while the game didn't require as good of macro as in SC; you need at least twice as micro and have to memorize 4 matchups along with all sorts of other crazy timings such as when certain items are spawning in certain shops. Basically you need crazy RTS skills for WC3 just as for SC, but since he transitioned he has struggled. As has Nada and Boxer. Crazy RTS skills alone don't make you great at a game (though they help). I'm guessing in a few months time fin is going to be a very good player. I'm thinking the same thing with Zenio. Now that he's on Liquid, he's also got the opportunity to practice against Ret, who is arguably the second best foreign zerg... On January 11 2012 02:55 ishboh wrote:
under group E after "1st" you said MVP, i think you meant MMA Yup, I sure did thanks. On January 11 2012 02:45 Sub Zero wrote:
I picked group C exactly the same as you did.
And I went with MMA/Gumiho in group D and Zenio winning with Yugioh (Zenio is quite good ZvZ and Gumiho looked really good against zergs in the past.
And i thought Supernova would be the favorite as MC was jetlagged, had much less time to pratice, and Supernova is a very good player Yeah, Bagration is saying the same thing about MC's schedule. I guess I need to pay more attention to the circumstancial details of the players involved? I don't disagree with you, but I'm curious whether you think Stephano or Idra is the best foreign zerg?
I have to say IdrA. Even if he doesn't always perform as well as he should, as one of the few foreigners to make it on a Pro League team, and having such a long SC history; he brings some of the most in depth knowledge of this game to the table. His strategies are spot on and his control is amazing. As has been said before, IdrA's worst enemy is himself. At MLG Orlando I think we caught a glimps of what he is really capable of, smashing through Boxer, HongUn, and Bomber
one after another; after already taking down Haypro, Boxer, and TLO in pool play. I honestly think if he could tackle some of his defeatist attitude and personal demons, he could be the best zerg in the world. That's what really makes me wonder about group C, if IdrA were to come out full force I think he could beat Nestea. I just don't think it's going to happen.
Stephano is definetly good, but after his run at Orlando I think he has been the subject of a lot of hype. He's won a lot of tournaments, but he has also fallen to a lot of high level players. Just looking quick in TLPD I see that he has recently lost to MC, Polt, MKP, Thorzain, Cloud, and Sheth. His overall win rate is impressive though, and I think he is definetly one of the top foreigners. But he's also a newcomer, and I would take the encyclopedic knowledge of strategy and gameplay Ret and IdrA possess over sheer mechanics. At least for right now, as Stephano matures as a player I think he may very well be able to take the title of best non-Korean Zerg.
|
no way bro, stephano all the way.
stephano has great mechanics, multi-tasking, and is good at creating an economic advantage without being too vulnerable. idra can do the same as well, but i think that stephano has a better attitude about the game and can stay in games longer and make comebacks whereas idra often disappoints by gging too early
edit: I'd say that another thing that stephano does better than idra is choosing when and where to engage. sometimes (especially against protoss) ive seen idra just throw away an entire army when he really shouldn't.
|
On January 11 2012 04:51 ishboh wrote:
no way bro, stephano all the way.
stephano has great mechanics, multi-tasking, and is good at creating an economic advantage without being too vulnerable. idra can do the same as well, but i think that stephano has a better attitude about the game and can stay in games longer and make comebacks whereas idra often disappoints by gging too early
I think you and I are saying basically the same thing. As I said, IdrA is his own worst enemy, and Stephano is more consistant. But when IdrA is able to overcome his defeatest mentality, he is a true force to be reckoned with. IdrA also just has way more experience than Stephano.
More than likely Nestea will stomp IdrA in group C, but I really would not be suprised to see IdrA take him down; he has the skill just isn't always able to use it the way he should.
|
One small nitpick:
On January 11 2012 02:17 TheToast wrote:
1st: I've got Curious over Oz. Curious 4-0'ed him in Code A, and has also taken down MC (twice), Choya, Puzzle, and others and has an overall 69.23% win rate in PvZ. Also ranked 4th in Korean ELO.
Amazingly enough, I've come into this thread to defend MC's honour (if you don't know me, I'm an MC fanboy).
According to TLPD, Curious has never played MC in Korea, and according to this Curious has only ever played TT1 and Bischu outside of Korea.
I know there are some games that aren't added to TLPD, but I can't think of any MC vs Curious games offhand, and I've watched most MC games for a long time 
I still agree with you that Curious is an absolute beast in ZvP. A contender with Coca (poor Coca -_- for ZvP sniper.
|
Nice picks, but I went with Oz in group D. It's a very tricky group though, Inca could shut Oz down if they play, and who knows if Bomber decides to bring his A-game.
|
On January 11 2012 06:12 SeaSwift wrote:One small nitpick: Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 02:17 TheToast wrote:
1st: I've got Curious over Oz. Curious 4-0'ed him in Code A, and has also taken down MC (twice), Choya, Puzzle, and others and has an overall 69.23% win rate in PvZ. Also ranked 4th in Korean ELO. Amazingly enough, I've come into this thread to defend MC's honour (if you don't know me, I'm an MC fanboy). According to TLPD, Curious has never played MC in Korea, and according to this Curious has only ever played TT1 and Bischu outside of Korea. I know there are some games that aren't added to TLPD, but I can't think of any MC vs Curious games offhand, and I've watched most MC games for a long time I still agree with you that Curious is an absolute beast in ZvP. A contender with Coca (poor Coca -_- for ZvP sniper.
I was looking at all games played Here, which shows Curious over MC in the 2011 KSL Daily #2 and AoL: Team Ace Invite. Obviously not as influential as a GSL, MLG, Dreamhack, etc. as the players probably do not spend as much time preparing for these types of tournaments. I don't like to dismiss smaller tournaments entirely, I think they can, along with other stats, shed some light on a matchup.
|
Curious's ZvP >>>> MC's PvZ, which has historically been rather mediocre at best, even more mediocre than NesTea's ZvT, IMO. He's in much better shape than he has been in the past few months, of course, but I still wouldn't put MC over any decent ZvP player, and Curious's ZvP is phenomenal. (Kid doesn't get enough recognition and, even his worst match-up, ZvT, is a treat to watch.)
Bomber's 50/50 against Oz if he (Bomber, that is) decides he's going to try to macro-stomp his way to victory (which he seems prone to doing). If he plays even a little smart and more like, say, Keen instead, he should roll Oz pretty easily.
|
On January 11 2012 07:14 babylon wrote:
Curious's ZvP >>>> MC's PvZ, which has historically been rather mediocre at best, even more mediocre than NesTea's ZvT, IMO. He's in much better shape than he has been in the past few months, of course, but I still wouldn't put MC over any decent ZvP player, and Curious's ZvP is phenomenal. (Kid doesn't get enough recognition and, even his worst match-up, ZvT, is a treat to watch.)
Bomber's 50/50 against Oz if he (Bomber, that is) decides he's going to try to macro-stomp his way to victory (which he seems prone to doing). If he plays even a little smart and more like, say, Keen instead, he should roll Oz pretty easily.
Hmmm interesting. What do you think about Bomber versus Curious, I know Curious has a really high ELO but Bomber has really good TvZ, so I'm thinking he goes 2-0 in the group without ever playing Oz. Or do you think Curious will come out 2-0?
And who gave me a 1/5, really? Bah, philistines.
|
On January 11 2012 15:22 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 07:14 babylon wrote:
Curious's ZvP >>>> MC's PvZ, which has historically been rather mediocre at best, even more mediocre than NesTea's ZvT, IMO. He's in much better shape than he has been in the past few months, of course, but I still wouldn't put MC over any decent ZvP player, and Curious's ZvP is phenomenal. (Kid doesn't get enough recognition and, even his worst match-up, ZvT, is a treat to watch.)
Bomber's 50/50 against Oz if he (Bomber, that is) decides he's going to try to macro-stomp his way to victory (which he seems prone to doing). If he plays even a little smart and more like, say, Keen instead, he should roll Oz pretty easily. Hmmm interesting. What do you think about Bomber versus Curious, I know Curious has a really high ELO but Bomber has really good TvZ, so I'm thinking he goes 2-0 in the group without ever playing Oz. Or do you think Curious will come out 2-0? And who gave me a 1/5, really? Bah, philistines.
I'm a little hesitant about calling Bomber vs. Curious because it's a teamkill, but based on the fact that Curious sounded really intimidated by Bomber during his Code A championship interview (said if there were two players he did not want to play, those two would be Bomber and MVP) and because Bomber apparently places #1 in in-house rankings very, very consistently, I'd give the edge to Bomber 60/40. I think that because Bomber has a pretty good amount of time to prepare and because he has a ton of data to work from, he'll take the win. This is assuming Bomber doesn't decide to dick around too much in-game and doesn't play stupidly overconfident.
I really like Curious's chances this group, though, because his ZvP is so strong. I think one of the two ST players will def. get through. (But I am a ST fan, so I'm pretty biased.) Bomber's lucky he doesn't have to play TvT, and though he's been struggling with TvP since the patch, he still hasn't dropped a Bo3/5/7 yet to any Protoss in Korean LAN except MC.
In any other group, Oz would have a better chance of advancing, but Curious and InCa will run over him, IMO.
|
^That's actually really helpful info. The whole teamkill aspect of matchups is something else I really haven't been considering that I should be as well, it does change the dynamic a bit.
|
I've made the exact same picks so far, you seem pretty smart. Oz could beat someone of Curious/Bomber but I think both the ST players coming out of the group is the most likely result.
Group E I've got MMA and Zenio winning their first matches, then I think MMA will stomp Zenio, Gumiho will beat Yugioh and Gumiho will beat Zenio, too - neither Zenio nor Yugioh are particularly good at ZvT while Gumiho is really good in this matchup.
Hopefully I'm right, I just noticed that MVPNoblesse liquibets too, and I want to beat him. Atm he's at 11/12 points. :D
|
Rofl, Noblesse.
For Group E, I have the same as StarVe, though I'm a bit worried about Zenio's ZvZ since we haven't seen it for awhile. YGO's ZvZ looked really mediocre against Curious though, when they met, but he has the potential to pull some really good games out of the basket.
Gumiho's TvZ is reminiscent of sC's and hasn't let me down yet so far.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
