TL Mafia XL - Page 45

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Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 22:51 GMT

#881

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On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote:

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Olol.

No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green.

Another irrelevant post, but continuing to have a presence. Important for people to see him.
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On June 05 2011 18:14 iGrok wrote:

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Two threads, Two places
Vote in one, not the other
Or you may mislead.

Just fyi, voting in the Thread and not in the voting thread is considered scummy at higher levels of play. I will of course excuse you since you are new, but I'm trying to help you out here - if you're going to vote, then vote, but make sure you know what you're doing. Make sure you read my post.

Also, again with the bullshit McCarthyism - This is VERY anti-town, and if you're a menace to town, promoting anti-town play, its in our best interest to remove you from the game if we have no strong mafia targets.

tl;dr: CTFO

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Chill The Fuck Out

On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote:

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The more that you yell,
The more attention you get.
Keep up the noise, Joe

[/sarcasm]

Even if you are town, and its too early to throw accusations out, you're playing TERRIBLY anti-town. Again, Chill.

Again makes Kurumi out to be very anti-town.
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On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote:

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No haiku for this,
The point is too short for one.
Just a simple note

Do shit like this, you're going to piss people off. Pissing people off is a good way to die. Dying does not help your team at all (at least in this game). You know this, you've played several games. Don't fuck over the newbies because you want to be obnoxious.

As far as your "slips" go:

Lafali, from what I can tell, is a newbie who bandwagonned, read my post warning against bandwagons, and unvoted.

Treadmill: He said we should wait, and every point of evidence is important no matter how small. Great reason to vote him.

Point grew after I wrote the haiku :p

Starts getting interesting. He defends Lafali as a nooby and defends Treadmill (who begin to reason as scum lately).

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 22:53 GMT

#882

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On June 05 2011 23:54 iGrok wrote:
Pay no heed to us
Prior warnings of misdeeds.
Vote without a post.

again, [/sarcasm]

Drazerk, you did NOT just read the thread, SEE that people were warned against voting without posting, and then vote without posting. Right?

Calls out Drazerk for not posting before voting. Boring.
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On June 06 2011 07:57 iGrok wrote:

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On June 06 2011 04:49 GGQ wrote:

On June 06 2011 03:44 gtrsrs wrote:
hi everyone i'm back
my thoughts so far:
- jesus christ, 7 pages of nothing
- freeloader asked an innocuous question that was stupid but not scummy IMO

in fact he made it quite clear the reasons he was asking:

On June 05 2011 12:44 freeloader625 wrote:
Omg I'm so excited for this. I read all the rules twice and just want to ask to anyone willing to answer (before the game starts) since these were not answered in the thread rules:

1) Since PMs are not allowed, how would mafia communicate with each other?
2) Once someone dies whether it be by votes or mafia hit, will their roles be revealed?

and then everyone ignored the fact that he asked another innocuous question too. clinging to false evidence ITT?

- unfortunately it looks like a slip so i can see him getting lynched today
- if he flips town, we'll need to re-evaluate the people who pushed for his lynch
- dude who keeps posting haikus, please stop, that's thread derailment and very scummy. i can't even read your posts. i do not think there are any posting restrictions so only post what you HAVE to
- that being said, i'm going to vote for you because i don't want to jump on the freeloader bandwagon (nor do i want to try and counterbandwagon onto aprudds for calling him out)

- voting in this thread is not scummy, whoever said that. voting in this thread helps us keep track of bandwagons and reasoning behind votes. please vote in this thread when you vote in the voting thread.

- there are too many posts in this thread. you probably don't have anything to say at this point. don't post for posting's sake. when you do post, please make long, well-thought-out posts. short posts derail the thread. i think one of the pages had like 10 one-line posts and that's not acceptable. it allows mafia to "blend in" with the town by posting similarly.

- posts that have words but don't say anything are scummy

- kurumi is naturally an annoying, accusatory spammer, don't read into it too much

(also no offense to kurumi)

- from what i've seen of his play in other games, jackal is a strong player. don't let his abrasive personality cloud your mind from his usually very-informative, rational posts. at the same time, please use your own judgment when reading his posts and decide for yourself if you come to the same conclusions. if he is mafia he will use his "upstandingness" to sheep us around.

##vote: iGrok

You didn't actually mention iGrok in your post, but you voted for him. More explaining please?

My Final Haiku:
I guess fun is not allowed.
Srs Bsns.

You, sir, have no sense of fun.

So let me get this straight - your reason for voting me is "Thread Derailment" and not wanting to vote for treadmill?

You do realize you could just -wait- to vote, right?

Honestly, those are some of the worst reasons to vote that I can think of. Particularly since your post is, aside from your "evidence" against me, just a regurgitation of other posts. Post some analysis, and good analysis not just bullshit like the above post.

You may be thinking, "Why haven't you (iGrok) posted strong analysis yet then?" And knowng you, and probably kurumi as well, there probably a "Scum!" (or "Rat!") thrown in there. The reason is that last night there was nothing to analyze yet, but I saw that the town was disintegrating really fast and I had to step up to try to stop that from happening. May analysis will come after 24 hours of game time, no sooner or later. I will focus on one person, selected without bias, and attempt to ascertain through their posts what their alignment is. Anyone who remembers me from Experiment Mafia 2, I was Pink2 - You remember my analysis of Blue, and how strong that was.

In closing, BE PATIENT. Talk, yes, Discuss, yes. Accuse, especially with as little actual substance has happened so far, no.

Again getting into a good towny position.

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iGrok now posts about how he will post a big analysis soon.
iGrok explains how redFF isn't actually playing the game.

aprudds

Canada144 Posts

June 08 2011 22:55 GMT

#883

Thank you!

cherubael

United States12 Posts

June 08 2011 23:01 GMT

#884

Alright. It seems that so far, there is a consensus in that people have voted either iGrok or amazingxkcd. The case on amazingxkcd seems pretty strong to me. I'm not going to go through every post he has made, as that was done here. The case against iGrok seems a little less solid. And most definitely not blue.

Also, supersoft seems to be posting some amount, but mostly things that are irrelevant, or criticizing other people, while not doing much himself, as seen here. He seems to be attacking jackal58, but doesn't really have a valid argument.

Also, sorry about the lack of posting, I've been quite busy.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 23:05 GMT

#885

On June 09 2011 08:01 cherubael wrote:
Alright. It seems that so far, there is a consensus in that people have voted either iGrok or amazingxkcd. The case on amazingxkcd seems pretty strong to me. I'm not going to go through every post he has made, as that was done here. The case against iGrok seems a little less solid. And most definitely not blue.

Also, supersoft seems to be posting some amount, but mostly things that are irrelevant, or criticizing other people, while not doing much himself, as seen here. He seems to be attacking jackal58, but doesn't really have a valid argument.

Also, sorry about the lack of posting, I've been quite busy.

Yes the case against iGrok is much more intellectualy based on his actions that resemble that of an over ambitious GF and then the fact that his defense is him being silent about it.

We really should get rid of iGrok first though. And IF the vote fails, we should have a Vig kill him.

Also the last bit of my old post is not formatting correctly for some reason so it might take a bit for me to find a way to post it without it being ugly.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 23:09 GMT

#886

[quote]WARNING BIG POST – finally iGrok's big analysis post. This should be fun.
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On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote:

Its time for some analysis.

For Science.

EDITED MY OWN SPOILERS SO YOU CAN SKIP THE NOOB GUIDE
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This post will be long. And split into two parts. The first part will be setup analysis. The second part will be a post-by-post analysis of Kurumi. There will be no tl;dr. Welcome to Mafia ^^.

Let's begin.

Setup: 40 players. 1/5 are scum. Scum have 4 kp N1, and D1 is rarely a scum lynch (sad but true). However, there are medics and vets, so assume D2: 36 players - 28 Town 8 scum, or .222 scum. Now we're getting somewhere.

Because of the scum %, which is slightly high for a large game (large games tend to help scum get lost in the noise), and based on Town traditionally having more PRs anyways, I guarantee tht Town has a greater number of PRs. Probably 150-250%.

I'll analyze Scum roles first so we can get a rough estimate of the number of blue roles.

8 Scum. 1 GF. There are definitely not more than 50% PRs on the red team. That would be absurd for a newbie-friendly game. Therefore, 2-3 RBs. 3 RBs is a little high, so I'll guesstimate 2. This leave us with 3 PRs on scum.

Blue Roles

Detective: In this game, Detectives (Also known as Cops and DTs) check Role in addition to alignment. This makes DT a VERY powerful role. However, there is probably more than 1 - having only one makes the game to easy to be swung with a lucky snipe. Therefore, I'd guess there are 2 DTs.

Medics and Vets: Lately, theres been a tendency to display both but only give out one or the other of these roles. In this case, however, I will assume both. Likely 2 Medics (for the same reason as 2 DTs - if one gets sniped thats just bad luck) and 1 Vet. Veterans kind of get their own kind of weighting when it comes to balancing teams. You know it will be useful if town is losing, but it does nothing active to help them. Veterans help to stabilize the game and make it less swing-y, which is exactly what you want for a newbie game.

Lastly, Vigilantes. Knowing Meapak, theres at least one, probably 2 Vigilantes. Vigilantes can be the town saviors. Particularly in a game like this, the faster we can whittle down Mafia KP the better off we'll be. Vigis should take note of who presses for and opposes a lynch, and when we see the results, act accordingly - probably NOT before N2 though.

Note that I do not count vets toward Power Role balance because they are so weak. Also Vigis only count for 75% of a PR because they can do more harm than good. Role cops, on the other hand, count for 150% of a PR. Yes, they are that strong.

Black Roles
Traditionally, Black roles are 3rd party, but since there aren't any sks, I'm counting Miller as a black role.

Miller is the bane of any cop. Every check you make that comes back Goon is less usefull. You can't confirm that he's anti town (though feel free to pressure them and see if they crack!). Millers count as -50% of a PR to Town. I would be VERY surprised if there were more than 1 Miller in this game, and certainly not more than two.

So, in summary:
5 Goons, 2 RBs, 1 GF = 3 PRs
2 DTs, 2 Medics, 1 Vet, 2 Vigis = 6.5 PRs
1 Miller = -.5 PRs

Total of 6:3 - Perfect - 200%

Is that guaranteed to be accurate? No. But its probably pretty close.

Now on to Analysis!

Today's subject is Kurumi.
The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet.

So, post by post:

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Manages to insult Freeloader and defend him at the same time. His next move, searching for bandwagonners, is a good idea, although its really not too hard to search through the 6 post long vote thread :p. Nothing to really note here except attitude.

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This is either a misread or a mislead. I immediately noted 2 things here: the ridiculously aggressive attitude was one. Treadmill is saying here that we need to use every bit of evidence, and that at the moment we had very little but it was enough to start. I might not have completely agreed with Treadmill, but I didn't think he was scum because of it. Kurumi is apparently convinced enough by this post that Treadmill is scum to vote - after he's yelled at others for voting based on little to no evidence.

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Literally this is what happened: Lafali says "aprudds has a point, but it could mean nothing. Fortunately, its not the end of the world if we fuck up." Kurumi continues his hyper-aggression. Lafali's post meant nothing - he may as well have not posted. Based on this, Kurumi accuses Lafali of being scum.+ Show Spoiler +

Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something.

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This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] +

More hyper-aggression

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This is actually a very interesting post. As you can see, Kurumi is mis-representing both Lafali and Treadmill. Neither of them "advocate mis-lynches", they simply stated that a mislynch was ok, and even probable. Neither of them are anti-town, and Treadmill is actually playing pro-town.

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This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well.

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Just read it.

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The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this.

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Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before.

[green]Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players"

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Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself.

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Kurumi hasn't been here that long, but he's clearly read up on his mafia. He knows the names of some older players. He is correct in that all discussion is good discussion, but (IMO)there are certain methods of generating it that do no good to town because they cause too much chaos. Still, point in his favor though.

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Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious.

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On June 06 2011 00:07 Kurumi wrote:

On June 06 2011 00:01 aprudds wrote:

On June 05 2011 23:20 Kurumi wrote:
By the most scummy player I meant Your suspicion. An example of good post would be an analysis pointing out the biggest slips of player X leading Town in a Scum lynch.Remember though: there's nothing wrong about being wrong(unless You're redtooth,then You commit suicide on Day 3) A good post could be summing up who attacked who and who defended who + Your thoughts about it. Everything that generates discussion is good. You must remember though,that without good evidence there's probably no point in bringing something new,because this will cause chaos.
Pyo,it is too fast for scum to bus too. Freeloader's situation is really uncertain. His small,but bandwagon is based on shitty evidence. "He asked a question,no townie would ask it!" Think for a second. What would happen if Freeloader was scum? Someone would pm him and tell him everything he needed to know,makes sense? Hell yes.
We aren't that vindictive,don't worry <3 But there are players who are magnets,namely Radfield and Kavdragon,who like to die Day/Night 1.

Kurumi, you're talking for the sake of talking and stirring up too many accusations without any discussion or analysis. Talk is good, blind accusations are bad.
This makes chaos and makes it hard to focus on one thing at a time. (AGAIN)

There isn't much to go on right now. Here's what happened:

1 guy asked a dumb question. Scum Scale: *----
3 guys bandwaggonned. Scum Scale: **---
2-3 people throw around un-called-for accusations. Scum Scale: ***--

Oh, and Pyo called you out on being an ass.

If you are an experienced player like you say, you should know that rapidly throwing out multiple low impact accusations just lead to you getting ignored or lynched :/

@Pyo
You need somewhere to get a discussion started. The accusation was arbitrary, but it's the best thing there was after the roles got pmed and before the game started.
After everyone starts posting their mind on this there will be a greater pool of posts to look over.

My dumbness meter went over 9000.
Before saying "HURR DURR YOU DID NOTHING" read my posts. I brought evidence why I think they're scum.

aprudds (the originator of the whole "Freeloader Debacle") gives a nice, concise analysis of whats gone on in the game, and (in the @Pyo section), explains what his reasoning was for the first accusation. + Show Spoiler [Mini aprudds read] +

IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way.

Kurumi pulls an OMGUS (Oh My God You Suck) and heavily insults aprudds.

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This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1.

Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds.

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We've been over this - No they don't.

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Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum.

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Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected.

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Kurumi points out that DTs shouldn't report on D2 since mafia can stack kills. This is an excellent point - DTs should wait until they have something useful to report before revealing themselves. I don't understand the first half of this post, so I'm ignoring it lol.

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Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] +

Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible.

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True.

And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping.

So, what can we take from all this?

Kurumi is a very aggressive player known for causing chaos. He has cast suspicion on many people, mostly those who argued with him. He has also thrown in some genuinely Pro-town things into his posting. Its very difficult to make a final call, but...

I believe that Kurumi is Scum. In my opinion, his Pro-town points were thrown in at random or very obvious to remove suspicion from him. However, I must take into account that I may have been biased, as well as his pro-town things. Because of this, I do not advocate a Kurumi Lynch D1. Instead, I think that Kurumi should be our prime DT target. Knowledge of his alignment will undoubtedly help us determine who is scum and who is town.

GGQ, Jackal, Vain, I'd particularly appreciate it if you would weigh in here.

To new players, this is a complete, thorough analysis of a player. You don't have to do things like this. But you'll be a much better player if you do, even if you don't post it (there are times not to, like if you realize someone is a DT or Medic). Go forth and analyze!

Now most of this post is directed at Kurumi who I feel is enemies with iGrok at this time, and assuming iGrok is GF, he doesn't want Kurumi to continue tunneling himself so he shifts focus to Kurumi. As iGrok doesn't want to appear suspicious himself he suggests a DT check Kurumi.

Now I would like to point out this out
[quote]“Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. “[/quote]
This is what I call true irony. This whole game until now has been iGrok expressing his experience and not stepping on anyone’s toes and making the town does not act hastily in their lynch. He is letting us make the first mistake (with information, not lynches) by not posting anything worth reading (he can't slip anything important if he never posts anything important while we make accusations and force each other to defend ourselves..

Immediately after this is posted gtrsrs calls iGrok out on still being his prime suspicion even though he provided a long analysis.

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[QUOTE]On June 06 2011 15:40 iGrok wrote:
[QUOTE]On June 06 2011 15:31 gtrsrs wrote:
for the record, fishing for blues is scummy[quote]
Is this in response to anything?

[quote]you're still my prime FoS, iGrok, no matter how long your post is[/QUOTE]
With how quickly you jumped on me based on nothing, I'd expect nothing less. Perhaps though, you should read the post instead of remarking at its length. And then perhaps you should run an analysis of me.

In fact, I'd like to see you do a post-by-post analysis of me. Will you do that? You might be surprised at what you find. For example, in Experiment Mafia II, I ran a post-by-post analysis of the player "Blue1", who I believed to be quite scummy and who was under a lot of suspicion at the time. However, upon going through it, I was forced to conclude that he was actually Town. Town won on Day 3.
[/QUOTE]

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 23:10 GMT

#887

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On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote:

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Okay, this is not an analysis. Everyone please note how bad this is.

But as a refutation,

I posted haikus because I wanted to, and every single one had a purpose.
I did not try to find out the town's blues. I tried to guess the setup. This helps town out just as much as it helps scum out, if not more so. If you disagree, I want to know why, in explicit detail.
Mafia doesn't know who is what PR, or even how many - they can only guess, same as me. Same point as above.

If you count both of those as my only two contributions, I'll be able to simply ignore you as a terrile player. The analysis of Kurumi, and holding town together from fracturing immediately should also be in there. As well as explaining several concepts for the newer players.

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I went through your post history - when exactly have you played before? I know you're big in the LoL subforum, but all I could find regarding mafia was as a replacement in SNMM3 and a late /in for Newbie Mini Mafia I. Just curious because you're acting like you have some knowledge of how newbies play vs how experienced people play.

Basically he calls out gtrsrs on being a noob, even though his accusation against iGrok is pretty accurate.
CrjNinja comes in and says he disagrees with his analysis on Kurumi.
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On June 06 2011 16:36 iGrok wrote:

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Disagreement is fine! I'm a huge fan of actual discussion about things - but someone had to start the analysis, and the little quotes we were getting before are much more annoying to deal with. As I said, I'm not completely certain on Kurumi, but if I had to choose I'd say scum. Thats why I asked for a DT check.

Regarding my 'focus on blue roles', which I take you and gtr to mean my Setup Analysis, what I love most about Mafia is the mechanics, and so I'm going to try to work those out as best I can. Since neither mafia nor town knew (or knows now) how many of each role there are, I haven't really done anything. However, with rough, probable numbers, we can work out the best way to assign our blue powers. Blues are (arguably) the most important part of a mafia game - we should try to line up some good actions instead of just hoping for the best.

More people become suspicious of him and then gtrsrs posts

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On June 06 2011 16:44 gtrsrs wrote:

On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote:

On June 06 2011 16:04 gtrsrs wrote:
here is my scum hunt
you post haiku's in a game where posting anything more than necessary is distracting and derailing
you try to find the town's blues so that the mafia can know what they're up against
the one thing that the town has as an advantage is that the mafia doesn't know our PRs and here you are spelling the info out for them

even if you're not mafia, your two biggest contributions so far are anti-town

everyone i encourage you to ##vote: iGrok and watch how he (and others) react as the votes pile up. putting the pressure on someone is a good way to find mafia. watch the people that come to defend him and how they do so and then when he flips red, go after them next

On June 06 2011 16:11 gtrsrs wrote:
in fact i think kurumi is doing the right thing. we have nothing to go on on day 1. there are a lot of inexperienced players. lots of times if a new player is mafia and you insinuate that they're mafia they get really defensive. even if they know that you're accusing everyone, new players can slip up when you get around to accusing them. so i think kurumi is just trying to shake out some baddie mafias.

note, town, how now that i am FoSing iGrok more publicly, he's attempting to discredit me as he starts to panic. even though he LITERALLY just told you to not let kurumi sheep you and use experience as a reason to put him in a position of power, he's now going to attempt to do the exact same thing. classic sheeping attempt here, he points out that i'm not a well-known figure on the mafia sub-forum. good play is good play, you don't have to be an experienced player to pick up on a scumtell. but iGrok is going to call me a bad player and pretend to ignore me. notice how he will now try to shift the attention of the town elsewhere - probably by using a 9000-character post again on an "analysis" of someone else

don't fall for his passive-aggressive tricks, town

Which I feel is incredibly relevant and accurate right now.
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On June 06 2011 16:55 iGrok wrote:

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On June 06 2011 16:44 gtrsrs wrote:

On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote:

Nice OMGUS, bro. You have a habit of responding only to one thing in a post. You should probably change that, not just for this game but for all of them.

Anyways, the last thing I'm going to say regarding this (unless you keep up the smear campaign [or answer my points]) is that I said Kurumi is trying to use experience he doesn't have to get into power by associating himself with those who do. Personally, I think Jackal58, GGQ, or Vain would be great people to look up to and have confidence in - they're all pretty experienced and -good- players. Whomever among them we can confirm/be reasonably certain is town should be looked up to.

And just FTR, it wasn't 9,000 characters. It was 26,088 characters. Lets see you put that kind of effort into a post, eh?

He is truly shaken and is trying to discredit Kurumi and gtrsrs.
He then suggests Vain GGQ and Jackal could all be mafia and he would never play again if it were so (this is really a far more retarded post this his previous white noise posts).
And then continues to reason that if these 3 experienced and good players were on the same team it is irresponsible of the hosts to allow it to happen when they are supposed to be random teams. - Honestly there is absolutely no reason to say this, no one suggested it, no one considered it, it was TRULY random as hell.
Later on he posts an irrelevant mspaint of the accusations that he feels are going around.
He then responds to why people find him annoying. Pretty useless.
He then answers a question about when nighttime starts.
He then asks Jackal his opinion of his Kurumi analysis (I think hes fishing for someone to back him up, hes asked everyones opinion over and over but this is pretty irrelevant).
He then basically admits he analzyed Kurumi for no reason aside from trying to post something relevant to the game (even though all it did was get people off his ass for doing nothing the whole game).
He then asks Xedat a question. (irrelevant again)
He calls someone out for editing.
He lets everyone know we have 12.5 hours until night.
He then posts that he is unsure if Kurumi is scum or not (he is refering to my post during which I analyze Kurumi who I was suspicious of, but after doing the analysis started to consider him a townie).
He then expresses more confusion over someones post about Kurumi. (again irrelevant)
The person he was talking to explains himself and iGrok says he understands and states he doesn't know who to lynch.
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On June 07 2011 03:08 iGrok wrote:

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On June 07 2011 02:56 Alderan wrote:

On June 07 2011 02:53 iGrok wrote:

On June 07 2011 02:43 Vain wrote:

On June 07 2011 02:31 iGrok wrote:

On June 07 2011 02:11 Vain wrote:
Ok, i finally finished reading. Man, sleeping is bad for keeping up with a mafia game.

First off: Kurumi is probably town if he also spammed this much in a previous game where he was scum. I don't know his style very good but he is drawing way too much attention to be a comfortable mafia.

I don't quite understand this. So Kurumi is probably town because he's acting the same way he did when he was mafia before?

Euh, i meant town. Jackal stated that when he was town he's just as hard to analyze. Iirc he was not scum the other games Jackal played with him.

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On June 07 2011 00:19 Jackal58 wrote:

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On June 07 2011 00:15 amazingxkcd wrote:

On June 06 2011 10:47 Alderan wrote:
Here's a list of a couple people who seem to be acting a little scummy. (Not saying for sure scum, just people that might not be) Lets get some meaningful conversation going.

Amazingxkcd

I've already kind of voiced this opinion but I'm going to expound upon my earlier analysis.

Let's look at his posts.

It is quite clear that it can be seen who are the main talkers for both side. The only question is now how to distinguish between the two sides and how to act upon it

This post, obviously vague, of little help to the town, and posted directly after he appeared on TheAwesomeAll's “Lurker List”.

When I pointed out this was a fishy post he responded with this:

interesting first post there, all ready trying to set up accustation upon me for supposedly making a scummy post when in reality i am only simply making observation. You already got into my list of suspicious people by derailing a innocent first post when we still have around 30+ hours left to figure out each other.

Obviously immediately went on the defensive, turned and pointed a finger at me, and suggest that the town take its time “figuring each other out” instead of having discussion that is inherently pro-town.

In fact his only “contribution” to town discussion was this post:

Please refer to these guides on playing TL mafia.

For town: aidnai, GMarshal

For mafia: bumatlarge, chaos13

LSB's Newbie Guide
Mafiascum Newbie Guide
Introduction to Mafia (Flash)
Ver's town guide
Ace's Mafia Manifesto
Qatol's Town Guide

So his only contribution to the town is copying and pasting something that is in the third post of this thread? Interesting.

On June 06 2011 23:10 Alderan wrote:
Also, I'm going to ahead and voting for amazingxkcd, just in case something happens to me at work today and I won't be able to get a vote in.

@ amazingkcd, I'm really just waiting on you to refute the analysis I did earlier.

You are discriminating against me and you just voted for me right now just off the basis of my first post, which i made after i finished watching MLG. You do not provide evidence that i am a scum nor do you back it up should you have given any evidence. It seems that you want me to be lynched when i am trying to win for the town.

@iGrok and @Jackal58;

I can't analyze Kurumi either, since i take that he's acting as if he has multiple personalities disorder. He should be watched for sure. Also, @Jackal58, you stated that he had the same behavior in the previous games you played with him, what were his roles? That should at least help to give us a direction on him. I am not trying to label you two as complete scum, but i was just concerned about iGrok's request for help from Jackal58.

About freeloader, I am currently leaning towards the scummy side as for the reasons others have put up front already, but i need more time to see if i do want to lynch him. There are others here who seem suspicious based on their posts and the tone of their post, but i am not ready right now to make a final desicion.

Kurumi was town in XXXIX. Lynched day one for posting nonsensically for the first half of the day.
He has improved significantly from that game believe it or not.
He is also still playing in PTP mafia and is a self proclaimed SK.

Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense.

Yeah, I'm starting to see how Kurumi could be a townie, but I could also see him as a scum who felt the pressure and is trying to change his tune. I still don't thing he should be lynched today. I'm trying to think of who should be, but I really don't know :/

But you agree that it shouldn't be freeloader?

Yeah. Here's my "Don't Lynch" list (in no particular order):

Me ^^
Jackal58
Vain
GGQ
Kurumi
Treadmill
35spike1
CrJninja
Xedat
aprudds

Actually, looking back, I'm going to put my vote on Drazerk, for twice voting without saying shit. (He might've posted once or twice, but absolutely no substance, only bandwagonning).

Here he says he is going to vote to lynch Drazerk for no real reason besides Drazerk's ignorance.
Kurumi asks for an explanation and he gives some reasons, but they're all pretty much him hoping that his opinion matters and hoping people will listen to him so he can appear to have more power in the future votes.
He explains how the GF is chosen.
He also asks for an updated vote count.
He then says he doesn't think Rookie is scum, but bad with words, not that this matters because the votes were pretty substantially against the poor medic.
Impervious recommends we vote for the 3 people that suddenly changed their vote to Rookie with little time left.
iGrok asks which 3 people.
Then announces time before night.
Munk E suggests Lafali is suspicious and iGrok agrees, but admits the votes are pretty much locked in for Rookie.
I LOVED this post.

Show nested quote +

God damnit, I searched for like 5 minutes through the last few pages of the thread for someone linking a wiki post about how posts like the one above are clear markers for scum. Whatever.
iGrok then suggests using Vigis early (this is just asking for a huge mistake to happen.
iGrok then condemns Jackal as the one to start the Rookie lynch.
He then suggests Treadmill is a townie because “everything he's done has been right. Everything.”
I don't need to quote Treadmills posts to point out the flaws in the argument.
Pyo goes on to say how retarded it would be to use Vigis now.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 07 2011 14:31 iGrok wrote:
@Pyo:

Sure medics are passive and not useful until DTs/Vigis claim. But with possibly no remaining medics, DTs can't claim without really good cause because we can't save them -__-

Medics ARE important, much more important than you seem to think.

I should have made clear that I wasn't officially accusing Jackal of being GF, just saying that his play would make sense if he were GF.

For the moment, I have to go with treadmill here - Senj, xkcd, and kurumi are the most suspicious.

Just going off of associations, I'd say that Alderan is probably Town as well

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 23:11 GMT

#888

The rest of his posts are mostly irrelevant noise, but all of this really cements my position that iGrok is scum and most probably GF. I apologize if some of the formatting isn't attractive, but hope this analysis is pretty accurate and fair.

TL;DR
iGrok spams Day 1 so people will come to the conclusion he is an experienced player and very helpful to town. Avoids bandwagoning like the plague so people will not be suspicious of his motives. Recommends doing stupid things like using Vigilantes early. And most obviously he abstains to being the first to accuse someone in all situations so that he won't be the one to throw the first stone.

Finally, got it all out.

Sorry about the 3rd to last post being chopped slightly. I'd edit it, but don't want to risk it. Perhaps if a mod would fix the little bit thats wrong. Happy reading.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 08 2011 23:14 GMT

#889

On June 09 2011 08:05 Sprungjeezy wrote:

Show nested quote +

I double post like a boss.

But I just wanted to clarify, in no way do I feel iGrok has less chance of being scum than XCD. But obviously 3 people changing vote to a blue within 3 minutes of each other is a (arguably) more blatant than what iGrok being extraordinarily passive. But I feel iGrok is the bigger priority as he is leading the mafia (or so I am inclined to believe).

Alderan

United States463 Posts

June 09 2011 00:13 GMT

#890

I still agree with the lynch of amazingxkcd over anything else at this point, I think it's important to take account not only what hes posted, but what he hasn't.

Summation of what happened.
- I call him out for being vague.
- He responds with finger pointing.
- I acknowledge how defensive he was being.
- He hides behind the freeloader fiasco.

At this point his entire game changes. He never actually responds to being called out by others, something that a townie trying to stay alive would do, instead he hides and tries to let it all blow over.

I support that we not get distracted and make sure to lynch the scummiest person in the game to this point, amazingxkcd.

teamsolid

Canada3668 Posts

June 09 2011 00:44 GMT

#891

On June 08 2011 13:03 GGQ wrote:
GGQ's big post of epicness in case he dies tonight (which I've just realised I dont have enough time to make as long as I want

Trust me that it's smart and good:

No one undertook the exercise I set of looking at who defended and attacked lafali and why. I'm very disappointed, guys. You all get 0/2 on your homework for today. The veteran players are all going to be dead before this game is nearly over, and you guys need to practice working on how to actually find scum, not just accuse people based on neutral tells. Keep your heads up, don't get discouraged. Look at contradictions in talk and behavior. Look at people who are skating by with posts that just repeat previous content. These are the scummy players.

The point was to lead you to Kurumi and iGrok above everyone else. Kurumi attacks lafali for his bandwagon vote bringing nothing new to the table on freeloader. There was absolutely no reason for him to throw scum on lafali so early in the game if he's mafia. Plus his aggressiveness and balls-out attitude are more inline with a green than anything else. Kurumi is most likely town.

iGrok defends lafali as probably newb town. He's the only one who defends lafali straight out, but Vain, aprudds, monsterDrakar, and Senj also soft-defend him. I'm not saying they are all scum, but it's a great place to look for scum (dts take note! vigis save your shots). At this point in time I think iGrok is almost certainly the godfather of the mafia team (it could be jackal as well but his behavior doesn't fit the role as well, and seems more in line with the town play I've seen from him). iGrok defends lafali after Kurumi calls him out and votes for him, while before this accusation he posted that everyone who had voted so far ( which included lafali) should be under suspicion. Contradiction. iGrok has also been working to get into a town-leadership and thread-presence position all game, something the godfather always tries to do. iGrok also got way too defensive after being attacked and accused.

Other suspicious people to me: Vain, partly for defending lafali, partly for advocating the lynch on freeloader for 'information' blehhhhh I already posted about that, and partly because iGrok listed him as a skilled vet with him, me and jackal when I think he's quite new and I havent seen anything particularly good from him. iGrok probably wanted another mafia on that list, though.

Of course jimbooo whom I voted Day 1, for reasons already stated by multiple players.

Others are monsterDrakar and Senj. xkcd has decreased on my scum meter lately but isn't totally clear.

I've read most of the posts in the thread since the day started, and I've barely picked up anything except random white noise against each other. This is one of the few well organized posts that isn't TLDR with too much fluff, not enough meat. I can totally see why they would spend 2 KP's on this guy.

Seriously, some people are reading way too deep into people's words and adding their own already-present biases into someone's post, and then using that to reinforce their own thoughts. People should really put more emphasis into logical arguments not stuff like "oh he's defending himself too hard" or "he's posting too aggressively". I would look for actual contradictions and/or other evidence like GGQ did.

Personally, I think there's only 1 person that we have solid evidence against:
Amazingkxcd (nearly all his posts are random finger pointing, vote bandwagonning on Rookie and failure to explain his vote bandwagonning)

As for iGrok, I do agree he could be GF, but I don't think it's a high priority to kill him this early. He seems like a decent player and it would be a big loss if he really is town. Just keep an eye on him, to see if he keeps making contradictory posts.

I also think Mafia are far more likely to be people who are infrequent posters (except for the GF of course) than be prominent figures in this thread since this is a newbie game after all, so I would try to analyze these people more.

Impervious

Canada4147 Posts

June 09 2011 01:28 GMT

#892

It's currently a tie. I'm going to break it.

I feel like there's a strong case vs iGrok, although I am less sure of it than I am of xkcd.

I am a little surprised that no vigis took a shot last night. Our vigis may be inactive, or we may not even have any. Because I was sure the case for lynching xkcd was strong enough to warrant an early hit.

w/e. I'm voting xkcd for now.

heist

United States720 Posts

June 09 2011 01:31 GMT

#893

Ok before the bandwagon on iGrok starts to get too much momentum, I felt like I had to intervene. The evidence is much too inconclusive. Sprungjeezy is looking at his posts through a mafia bias and I will try to do the opposite to provide some measure of balance. Mine will be in italics (btw sry i couldnt get through the formatting issues of the last parts of the post)

On June 08 2011 23:43 Sprungjeezy wrote:
My Analysis of iGrok

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 15:36 iGrok wrote:
In the shadows lies
A peculiar type of Man
Kuze is my name.

In this game, I will start all of my posts with haikus. Enjoy ^^

Show nested quote +

He has plenty of reasons to be a townie. Don't even think about that kind of McCarthy Bullshit this early in the game.

Anyone voting this early deserves some measure of suspicion.

Also, I am schwasted, so this may not make a lot of sense. (White Russians are the best!)

But.

If you are new to mafia, welcome. A quick word of advice: Think before you act. Those people who have already voted are acting too hastily. a 40 man game is much more about reasoning than putting pressure on someone. And the only reason you would vote this early is to put pressure on someone.

Things to note about this game:

Detectives instead of watchers: This gives us hard checks (with a few exceptions) on who is scum/town. Town needs to know this information, and we need to keep it out of the hands of mafia. For new players, this is where crumbing comes in. Crumbing is leaving clues about what you want to say. The best crumbs will be deciphered by us and not by scum. However, crumbs can be used a different way, in that you leave crumbs no one can decipher and then reveal multiple crumbs later. This is good if you are new because often times no one can understand your crumbs anyways since you don't have experience.

Vigilantes: Need to not use your shots immediately. You are MUCH more likely to hit a civilian than scum at first, and also more likely to caus confusion.

Those are the two most important roles this game.

Regarding discussion:

Freeloader is probably not scum. He is new and likely inexperienced. However, just to be sure, a cop needs to check him tonight. Which reminds me:

If a miller is roleblocked, what does he return to investiagtion?

Anyways, many good ideas floating around for a newbie game :p Keep up the good work

I believe it is always good to start off the game by knowing who's good, who's new, and who's annoying. Some people read previously played games to get a better read, but as this is a new game, most won't look further than this. A nice long post that defends the very quick accusations against Freeloader625, a pretty neutral post.

One of his first posts is to warn people to not bandwagon early on in the game especially with such little evidence. Other than Aril he’s one of the earliest people to defend Freeloader. I would say that’s more than neutral and obviously pro-town behavior.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

Olol.

No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green.

O shit, a post without a Haiku but pretty irrelevant at this time.

I agree. Irrelevant.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 16:29 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

Olol.

No haiku this time. Pardon the wino in the corner. Yes, it is green and not blue. EBWOP: Change to green.

Another irrelevant post, but continuing to have a presence. Important for people to see him.

Insignificant.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 18:14 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

Chill The Fuck Out

Starts to get interesting somewhat. Note he denounces Kurumi's valid post against Jimboo (who I previously considered if he was mafia, but believe he is just a very-almost-too active townie). Also accuses Kurumi of being anti-town.

You read this wrong. Kurumi criticizes Treadmill who states that lynching somebody with some evidence of scum is better than lynching someone without any evidence. Yes, he accuses Kurumi as being anti-town but you yourself admit to having some thought of Kurumi being mafia. We can all see iGrok’s reasoning (after all I think all everyone at some point has considered Kurumi as mafia). Kurumi is acting really aggressive, is quick to vote, and is pointing fingers everywhere. Now none of this is conclusive of being mafia, but it is certainly not pro-town behavior which iGrok is pointing out. Nothing scummy about iGrok at this point.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 18:21 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

Again makes Kurumi out to be very anti-town.

Yes, he calls out Kurumi again. Is this suspicious? No. iGrok is staying consistent with his warnings to Kurumi that his wild accusations and rude posts only hurt his credibility if he is town.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 05 2011 18:31 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

Starts getting interesting. He defends Lafali as a nooby and defends Treadmill (who begin to reason as scum lately).

Yes he defended lafali but at this early point in the game lafali is not clear mafia. This can go either way depending on which propaganda mill you subscribe to. If you assume he’s town,perhaps he’s gratified that someone listened to his advice about bandwagoning and unvoted. If he is town, lafali can very well look like an unexperienced townie who just voted too early. If you assume he’s mafia, then of course you’ll make the leap from “iGrok defended a member of the mafia” therefore it’s very likely that he is mafia. His defense of lafali is inconclusive at best of whether or not he’s mafia or not. Don’t read too much into it.

+ Show Spoiler +

Calls out Drazerk for not posting before voting. Boring.

Yes. It’s boring, but it’s important for the town to pressure people who vote without any explanation.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 06 2011 07:57 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 06 2011 04:49 GGQ wrote:

You didn't actually mention iGrok in your post, but you voted for him. More explaining please?

Again getting into a good towny position.

Getting into a good towny position is what a townie wants to do.

On June 06 2011 08:14 blackone wrote:
Well, posting cute little haikus and being funny can lead to the suspicion that you have some kind of interest in being considered funny and friendly. Also, if you don't agree to that, why will you stop doing that now? It's not like gtrsrs can impose rules on how you have to post.

A mildly relevant post now as I am putting together evidence for us to consider if iGrok is scum.
iGrok then tells him it was his last haiku.
Vain explains that iGrok just wants attention and iGrok thanks him.
iGrok points out an edited post to mods.
iGrok makes a small tip on quoting.
iGrok tells someone not to report to mods but to let us self-moderate.
These last several posts aren't exactly worth much, but could serve to make it further clear that he is an experienced player to say the least.
CrjNinja posts some good analysis and condemns Lafali and naming Freeloader and Kurumi green.
iGrok asks Crj's opinion of himself (of iGrok).
Crj says he is an experienced player and says iGrok might be green but wants to wait until he makes any worth while post.

All I can really gleam from this is that he’s staying consistent to what’s he’s posted before. And yes, he is using the experience card. Is this necessarily a scummy thing to do? No. It can help him if he’s town OR if he’s mafia. And from our past experience with Jackal, we all realize what a powerful tool a claim to experience can be. So again, this purely depends on which bias one uses to analyze iGrok.

BREAK TIME

So far we have learned that iGrok first day has been utterly passive and is following his statement that he will not post anything worthwhile until after day 1, but has instead been using his time to get in our good graces by not stepping on any one's shoes as he wants to be liked by everyone. Currently (at the time of the above posts) I am kind of annoyed by him, but he seems like a very good player (even though he hasn't actually posted anything).

I don’t agree at all he’s being passive. He’s putting himself out there as being pro-town. Personally I think he fancies himself as the voice of reason amid the chaos of the freeloader bandwaggoning. Nothing wrong with that. Also, the claim that he’s careful not to step on anyone’s shoes is also incorrect. He had no problem rebuking Kurumi early on. Overall, I found him to be consistent with his posts and also pro-town. I can already hear your whispers of “maybe too pro-town”. But again I stress this entirely depends on which bias you take. Maybe he’s pro-town because he is town?

/END BREAK

iGrok now posts about how he will post a big analysis soon.
iGrok explains how redFF isn't actually playing the game.
WARNING BIG POST – finally iGrok's big analysis post. This should be fun.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 06 2011 15:18 iGrok wrote:

Its time for some analysis.

For Science.

EDITED MY OWN SPOILERS SO YOU CAN SKIP THE NOOB GUIDE
+ Show Spoiler +

Now on to Analysis!

Today's subject is Kurumi.
The black does not mean I think he's a miller, it means I don't know yet.

So, post by post:

Show nested quote +

Granted, it was a useless post - a scummy thing to do with good player meta, but as a newbie Lafali probably felt (s)he should contribute something.

Show nested quote +

This should be pretty self-explanatory. + Show Spoiler [In case its not,] +

More hyper-aggression

Show nested quote +

This is a very true post. That is precisely what scum wants. Its important to note that scum also wants to cause as much chaos in the town as possible as well.

Show nested quote +

Just read it.

Show nested quote +

The one super-pro-town thing he's done all game! Catching silent voters is SUPER important, particularly in a large game like this.

Show nested quote +

Pyo calls him out, Kurumi admits to spreading chaos in the town the game before.

[green]Pyo asks Kurumi for a list of "experienced players"

Show nested quote +

Not much to say about this. Slightly pro-town I guess? Kinda obvious stuff, but I'm giving people a pass on obvious stuff this game because its a newbie game and so not everything IS obvious.

Show nested quote +

On June 06 2011 00:07 Kurumi wrote:

On June 06 2011 00:01 aprudds wrote:

My dumbness meter went over 9000.
Before saying "HURR DURR YOU DID NOTHING" read my posts. I brought evidence why I think they're scum.

IMO, it seems that aprudds and Kurumi actually have similar philosophies, its just that aprudds doesn't piss off as many people along the way.

Kurumi pulls an OMGUS (Oh My God You Suck) and heavily insults aprudds.

Show nested quote +

This is Kurumi's prior experience. Note that in one of these games he was lynched D1.

Vain steps in to defend Treadmill and aprudds.

Show nested quote +

We've been over this - No they don't.

Show nested quote +

Tunnelling is still bad -_-. However, I don't think Kurumi is tunnelling this game. He's just accusing everyone who disagrees with him of being scum.

Show nested quote +

Continuing to prod Silent Voters. Pro-town. Really unexpected.

Show nested quote +

Asking questions, its been a bit since he last posted an opinion of his own (aside from other people are "Rats"). Nothing really here.+ Show Spoiler [Tiny supersoft read here] +

Admitting to lurking and doing nothing but saying 'hey look I'm not lurking' is terrible.

Show nested quote +

True.

And thats the last post he made. It may be time related. That was ~10 hours ago, possibly sleeping.

So, what can we take from all this?

Now most of this post is directed at Kurumi who I feel is enemies with iGrok at this time, and assuming iGrok is GF, he doesn't want Kurumi to continue tunneling himself so he shifts focus to Kurumi. As iGrok doesn't want to appear suspicious himself he suggests a DT check Kurumi.

Some of your points are absurd. He doesn’t want to appear suspicious so he asks a dt check on Kurumi. What… did you want him to ask for a dt check on himself? Let’s break it down. If he’s gf, he would welcome a dt. If he’s town, he knows that he himself is town and knows that utilizing a dt check on himself would be a waste. You assume he accuses Kurumi to put the public scrutiny on Kurumi and off himself. Think about this way. Before he posted this: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are tunneling him. After this is posted: Kurumi, pyo, gtrsrs are still tunneling him. If he wanted to stop the pressure from tunneling, this was not meant to accomplish that. Assume he’s town. He provides a real analysis of someone we’d all like to know better, a high-interest person: Kurumi, probably one the most wild-card player in the game. Also the immediate claims of fishing for blues is bullshit for reasons already stated on other posts. It was just a weak excuse to tunnel someone even further.

Now I would like to point out this out

“Jackal58 is good. GGQ is good, borderline very good (no offense Jackal ♥). Vain is good. I'd like to think I'm decent. Impervious is... interesting haha. Kurumi has played 3 games, and Jackal called him out later on. Whats important here is that Kurumi lumps himself in with very good players that town should listen to. He's attempting to establish a position of power for himself. “

This is what I call true irony. This whole game until now has been iGrok expressing his experience and not stepping on anyone’s toes and making the town does not act hastily in their lynch. He is letting us make the first mistake (with information, not lynches) by not posting anything worth reading (he can't slip anything important if he never posts anything important while we make accusations and force each other to defend ourselves..

I personally thought that the analysis on iGrok was a worthwhile read…. But anyways as I have stated before, an establishment of greater experience will help someone regardless of whether or not he is mafia. If you want to stubborn minded about it and believe iGrok is gf without a doubt, why aren’t also calling out Kurumi who did the same thing.
Immediately after this is posted gtrsrs calls iGrok out on still being his prime suspicion even though he provided a long analysis.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 06 2011 15:40 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

iGrok then asks for a post by post analysis of himself – which until now has been literally 100%
white noise and even this analysis is an extremely passive against Kurumi.
iGrok now posts that hes asking flamewheel to edit the formatting so he doesn't get in trouble and his posts looks prettier.
iGrok then states that his PR formulas aren't 100% accurate, but are generally pretty useful.

I think you and I have different definitions of passive. Also you claiming he’s passive is contrary to your argument that iGrok is putting himself out there as a person to be trusted based on experience. Let’s be frank here. iGrok wants gtrsrs to do a post by post analysis himself. Lets construe it as if iGrok is a town. iGrok is confident in his alignment so he is unafraid to ask someone to do an analysis on himself. Also he knows that gtrsrs has pretty much nothing conclusive on him. I suggest everyone read through pyo and gtrsrs’s posts and see exactly where the origin of this tunneling came from. It is lol worthy.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 06 2011 16:20 iGrok wrote:

Show nested quote +

Basically he calls out gtrsrs on being a noob, even though his accusation against iGrok is pretty accurate.
CrjNinja comes in and says he disagrees with his analysis on Kurumi.

DO NOT base an argument on accuracy unless there are contradictions in someone’s posts. The better question to ask is “Is this significant?” NO. He is calling him a noob because these “accurate” statements in no way conclusively paint iGrok as mafia. Let’s boil it down to the facts. iGrok makes haikus and he posts what he believes the set-up is. If he is mafia, why let the town know? He can easily tell this information in the mafia chat. He made haikus. Oh noes… it’s so distracting he must be mafia. This is really the flimsiest reason for an accusation to have ever been uttered.

+ Show Spoiler +

[QUOTE]On June 06 2011 16:36 iGrok wrote:
[QUOTE]On June 06 2011 16:20 CjrNinja wrote:
@ iGrok
I disagree with your player analysis. I think Kumuri is taking a very pro-town initiative by putting a lot of pressure on inexperienced players. It's a good opportunity to gauge reactions and hopefully pick up on a scum slip if the accused can't handle the pressure ^^
Also, the less attention towards blue roles, the better... last thing town needs is an inexperienced playing letting slip his blue role on day1.
Disagreement is fine! I'm a huge fan of actual discussion about things - but someone had to start the analysis, and the little quotes we were getting before are much more annoying to deal with. As I said, I'm not completely certain on Kurumi, but if I had to choose I'd say scum. Thats why I asked for a DT check.

Regarding my 'focus on blue roles', which I take you and gtr to mean my Setup Analysis, what I love most about Mafia is the mechanics, and so I'm going to try to work those out as best I can. Since neither mafia nor town knew (or knows now) how many of each role there are, I haven't really done anything. However, with rough, probable numbers, we can work out the best way to assign our blue powers. Blues are (arguably) the most important part of a mafia game - we should try to line up some good actions instead of just hoping for the best.

More people become suspicious of him and then gtrsrs posts

Again construing it to suit your needs. More people are not becoming suspicious of him. They are disagreeing with his conclusion. There is a difference. iGrok even later welcomes any disagreements. He provided his evidence and of course it won’t be 100% conclusive so there will be some who don’t agree.

- - - - - - - - - - -

In conclusion, I really want to stress that THIS IS NOT AN OPEN AND SHUT CASE. Lets summarize the points main against iGrok:

Claim to experience. Self-importance?
His posts try to paint a picture as him being “pro-town”
Defends lafali, accuses Kurumi
Got super defensive
“fishing for blues”

I would get defensive too if I got tunneled for stupid reasons. I pointed out the flaw in “fishing for blues”. The only way iGrok is justified as scum is to claim iGrok is godfather. Yes, you have a right to be skeptical if the only means of accusing someone is to claim he is godfather. For those of you bumrushing iGrok as mafia, I urge you to look at it in the point of view of town and you will see it is equally as valid. Overall, I am not saying he couldn’t be godfather but all the evidence is INCONCLUSIVE at best. I don’t even know how all of you are completely convinced of his wrongdoing. We all agree he is being pro-town and trying to assert his experience, but you take this as proof he is godfather when he can just as easily be a townie.

heist

United States720 Posts

June 09 2011 01:32 GMT

#894

Wanted to end on this.

On June 06 2011 04:34 Pyo wrote:

Show nested quote +

So how common is it for townies to vote for/ lynch day1 people that they just don't like or find annoying? I mean in the face no real evidence for or against anyone is it worth it to eliminate inactive or annoying players?

On June 06 2011 18:06 Pyo wrote:
After reading the posts up to now, I am reasonably confident that freeloader is probably a townie and the ambiguity of early accusers and their motivations means that there's not much to be learned from lynching him, although it might be inevitable at this point. Since his post in his defense haven't really been all that constructive anyway it isn't really a big loss, so I'm not gonna fight it.

The players that I find annoying are by far Haiku boy and Kurumi. So if ever I'm undecided about who to vote for it'll probably be one of them.

I think it is interesting to note all the little 1v1 bickering going on, the most recent example of which is between iGrok and gtrsrs. I think it is reasonable to assume that two mafia wouldn't orchestrate a mini feud this early on, which means that either both are town or only one is town.

So combining my last 2 paragraphs, I think I'm gonna have to change my vote to iGrok.

Ironic isn't it?

teamsolid

Canada3668 Posts

June 09 2011 01:54 GMT

#895

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 09 2011 10:28 Impervious wrote:
It's currently a tie. I'm going to break it.

I feel like there's a strong case vs iGrok, although I am less sure of it than I am of xkcd.

I am a little surprised that no vigis took a shot last night. Our vigis may be inactive, or we may not even have any. Because I was sure the case for lynching xkcd was strong enough to warrant an early hit.

w/e. I'm voting xkcd for now.

Thank you.. this is exactly what I was trying to say. Personally, when I read iGrok's posts on Day 1, I came to the same conclusion and they all seemed grounded in reason without seeming the least bit suspicious to me.

Take a step back and don't assume someone is mafia FIRST, then base your analysis on that assumption. Instead, simply look for contradictions or other tells showing that he really could be mafia. Defending yourself against ridiculous tunneling arguments is also hardly a sign of being mafia.

Kairo

Sweden184 Posts

June 09 2011 02:06 GMT

#896

On June 09 2011 10:28 Impervious wrote:
It's currently a tie. I'm going to break it.
I feel like there's a strong case vs iGrok, although I am less sure of it than I am of xkcd.
I am a little surprised that no vigis took a shot last night. Our vigis may be inactive, or we may not even have any. Because I was sure the case for lynching xkcd was strong enough to warrant an early hit.
w/e. I'm voting xkcd for now.

I feel that we were lucky that we did not get a third townie kill with misvigies, since it would have caused huge amounts of confusion. How likely is it that iGrok and xkcd is on the same team?
What would it mean if
a) iGrok flips green?
b) iGrok flips red?
c) xkcd flips green?
d) xkcd flips red?
My current vote stands for xkcd, but i can still be convinced to change. If any mafia try to affect the grok/xkcd vote situation they will have to leave footprints, which is useful.
Is there any 95%+ identified mafia in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use our vigies on?
Is there any 95%+ identified BLATANTLY OBVIOUS FOR MAFIA medic target in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use? Do NOT out blues for the mafia. There is no need to do any analysis for them.

For some of this to be relevant:
when does abilites resolve? is it by timer or simuntaneusly at the end of the night? when does medic/vigi PM timing (early/late) matter?

I believe this is potentially a double-edged sword, since stressing a decision for mafia could be useful while a premature medic/vigi decision could be really really bad. What would be nice would be to force a win/win situation for the town, but I can not see such a path clearly at this time.

is the mafia allowed to change their targets during the night?

Given: If targets are allowed to be changed and abilities resolve simuntaneusly at the end of the night then much of this post is garbage.

Meapak_Ziphh

United States6782 Posts

June 09 2011 02:11 GMT

#897

I resolve everything at the end of the night, medic vigi timing doesn't matter, if someone has more protection then hits they live. More hits than protection and they die.

Mafia is allowed to change targets anytime before the end of the night.

Pyo

United States738 Posts

June 09 2011 02:28 GMT

#898

On June 09 2011 10:32 heist wrote:
Wanted to end on this.

Show nested quote +

On June 06 2011 04:34 Pyo wrote:

Show nested quote +

Ironic isn't it?

You might be using the alanis morrissette definition of irony, but that isn't irony. I asked that question and no one really gave me a reason not to. I was actually planning to change my vote away from iGrok since it was an arbitrary accusation anyway. I started by randomly voting for kurumi and then for appruds before i ever got iGrok's case. But when i got on iGrok, he became really defensive. Then in light of his defense of lafali and GGQ's analysis I am even more confident that he's mafia.

I'm not going to advocate him over xkcd since i'm reasonably sure that he's mafia too and if either of the two get lynched I'm fine.

I will add that I find it curious that ever since the heat had turned on iGrok and several people started voting for him, his rather extensive and frequent posting/analysis has all but dried up. Almost as if he didn't want to further incriminate him or was waiting for other mafia to try to damage control the situation. If he were actually town, I feel like he should have continued to post as per usual because after he turned up green, everything would become even more valuable (especially as an "experienced" player). Does that confirm he's mafia? no, of course not. But add that to his other suspicious activity outlined by GGQ before he died:

"At this point in time I think iGrok is almost certainly the godfather of the mafia team (it could be jackal as well but his behavior doesn't fit the role as well, and seems more in line with the town play I've seen from him). iGrok defends lafali after Kurumi calls him out and votes for him, while before this accusation he posted that everyone who had voted so far ( which included lafali) should be under suspicion. Contradiction. iGrok has also been working to get into a town-leadership and thread-presence position all game, something the godfather always tries to do. iGrok also got way too defensive after being attacked and accused."

Go ahead vote for xkcd, but keep in mind that mafia are almost certainly more than happy to bus one of their own to save the GF.

In closing, I'll remind you all of GGQ's dying recommendation since he isn't around anymore to give it.

teamsolid

Canada3668 Posts

June 09 2011 02:43 GMT

#899

Whoops, I quoted the wrong post btw, meant to quote heist's big wall o text.

Sprungjeezy

United States1313 Posts

June 09 2011 03:10 GMT

#900

I really do appreciate your input Heist.

But I wish to add something to our discussion.

iGrok's "defence". He conceded, there is either too much against him, or he hopes the town would be forgiving/forgetful - as we may end up being today. This is why we NEED to vote him NOW instead of tomorrow. I do realize that he could easily be a townie trying to be "helpful" but for an experienced player I feel he is drawing TOO much attention to himself. That plus GGQ's post, plus my analysis (which actually cemented my feelings FURTHER) and the fact that he is not defending himself are shutting the case for my opinion.

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