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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Someone killed Incog, and it makes sense if they were trying to frame caller. Otherwise I'm not sure why they would narrow down the list like that if Caller is red. If Caller flips green, then we know we have a framing role in play, as I'm very skeptical that GM is red and falsified the lists.
If Caller is innocent, we DO NOT kill Chaoser, since we know we're looking for a godfather. We are fairly confirmed that Chaoser is in fact the modern detective, so he can't be the godfather. The only players left who can be the godfather are Foolishness, Kitaman, Meapak or Eiii, as the rest of the players have confirmed roles.
If Caller is the NRA member, than he would have killed the first person to visit him last night, AND shown up as vanilla to a role check. It seems likely that Wiggles would have tried to check Caller and died, leaving Chaoser free to check him and get back the vanilla result.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I suppose it also makes sense for mafia to kill Incog if they were out of BusDriverings. Certainly the next nuke that Incog threw was headed Ace's way, which would have confirmed Incog as town, and meant the mafia would have to contend with him the rest of the way.
Anyways, we'll reassess once Caller is dead.
Any chance we can end Day 4 today?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 26 2011 05:57 Radfield wrote:
If Caller is the NRA member, than he would have killed the first person to visit him last night, AND shown up as vanilla to a role check. It seems likely that Wiggles would have tried to check Caller and died, leaving Chaoser free to check him and get back the vanilla result.
This would also explain why he was so resistant to role claim yesterday.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Yep, unfortunately it doesn't allow us to narrow down our mole to a kp role.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Assuming there is a mole.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
If there's no mole we're home free. Otherwise it's very difficult to find the mole. Even though Chaoser and Bum have attacked scum, it still only partially clears them. If I was the mole I would just bus my buddies and cruise to the win. Especially in this game where the mafia were already so down and out.
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The lack of discussion is killing us. Once Caller dies we literally have no plan.
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Well can we work our way from the ground up? Mafia knows the mole the entire game. The mole on the other hand is pretty much in the dark til day 3, and at that point, he would probably regard himself as an independent. I really don't know where to start looking. Will he show up as mafia to alignment checks?
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United States22154 Posts
On May 26 2011 10:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
The lack of discussion is killing us. Once Caller dies we literally have no plan.
I agree, theres no way for us to find the mole if we don't have activity and such to help us pin down scummy people.
So, let me open this to discussion, what list should I be checking with my last listcheck? Should we consider a mass roleclaim now that we are approaching the endgame, or should we hold out on that?
Lastly who of the remaining players do you think is most likely to be scum?
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Does the mole show up as red on lists now, regardless of the day? If not, then perhaps the current one to check exactly how many we are dealing with? If they do show up as scum on earlier lists, then perhaps one where it was just one individual or two on a list.
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@GM I think you should check one of the first day lists that has the most living people on it. If the check doesn't change then we just confirmed a bunch of people. If a new mafia shows up we've at least lowered the number of targets we have to work with. This is assuming the mole will retroactively show up. I think Chaoser should check Eiii. Eiii is one of our gf possibilities but he plays so scummy normally that it would be impossible to make a call. I don't really know what other roles we have. I don't know if we should massclaim yet. There may be a valuable town role still hidden.
As for scum I think it comes down between kita and foolishness.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 26 2011 10:12 Radfield wrote:
If there's no mole we're home free. Otherwise it's very difficult to find the mole. Even though Chaoser and Bum have attacked scum, it still only partially clears them. If I was the mole I would just bus my buddies and cruise to the win. Especially in this game where the mafia were already so down and out.
hmmmm
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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Ok foolishness this may seem pretty arbitrary but I now think kita is scummier than you. Just basing this off of activity and general helpfulnes over the last day. We need activity if we have any hope of winning so if you're a townie you should be posting right now and this is directed at everyone.
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I was torn between shooting ace and kita, but ace being ousted would solve a lot more problems. That's why earlier I wasn't saying confirmed town rad, I was saying who I thought the remainging scum would be between.
Foolishness is obvious because of his connections with ace and what not, but I wouldn't say he has been scummy. Kita has been mostly a nonfactor this game, totally lurkish. Maybe I just haven't been paying close attention, but he seems like a good mole candidate.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 26 2011 17:53 bumatlarge wrote:
I was torn between shooting ace and kita, but ace being ousted would solve a lot more problems. That's why earlier I wasn't saying confirmed town rad, I was saying who I thought the remainging scum would be between.
Foolishness is obvious because of his connections with ace and what not, but I wouldn't say he has been scummy. Kita has been mostly a nonfactor this game, totally lurkish. Maybe I just haven't been paying close attention, but he seems like a good mole candidate.
What about my connection to infinitestory? IS was originally the one defending me against the accusations; Ace just agreed with him (IS seemed to imply that I had been checked by a DT as well). I don't think it's much of a connection (Ace and me) to begin with. We all know mafia don't interact with each other in the thread unless they are in a dire situation.
I will also be a bit bold here and say that my activity level has been constant through this game while kitaman's died off a bit after day 3 started. Bit if we're going to use that criterion we should be killing Radfield.
Do our vote check lists even confirm that we have a mole, or are we just speculating we do because nobody looks obvious enough at the moment?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I still want to kill Radfield if anyone is interested.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Foolishness, in the interest of being clear, do you think I have been mafia from the start of the game, or are you saying you think I'm the mole, because those are very different accusations. Also, you seem to be insinuating that my activity level has dropped since the start of Day 3, when I have posted far more than any other player since that point in the game.
As far as our plan moving forward, it depends entirely on which way and what Caller flips.
If Caller flips green: We still have to find the last OG Mafia. We know that either GM is red, or that we have a godfather/framer in play. I think we would all agree that it is really unlikely for GM to have been mafia since the start of the game, so we would look for players with unconfirmed roles in order to find the godfather, this means Eiii, Foolishness, Meapak, Chaoser or Kitaman is the Godfather/framer, since all the other players have confirmed power roles. In addition, if Caller is not the NRA member or a kp role, we know we are looking for a mole/6thmafia with a kp role(given that 2 people died last night and no townie has claimed responsibility). This means that the mole or 6th mafia is once again either Eiii, Foolishness, Meapak, Chaoser or Kitaman. Any player who can prove they have a non-kp role is in the clear. Chaoser might be cleared, but I need to check the time stamps and see if Ace could have found out Bum's role and passed that info on to Chaoser.
If Caller flips Vanilla Red: This is the best scenario, as we know there is no godfather and we know that we need to find the missing KP from last night. That clears Eiii(parity cop), and chaoser(who found Caller) and leaves Meapak, Kitaman or Foolishness as the mole, since they do not have confirmed roles. However, GM has rolechecked Foolishness, so he can confirm his role(hopefully non-kp). That would just leave either Meapak or Kitaman as the last remaining mafia/mole.
If Caller flips Red NRA Member: This is both the most likely and possibly the most difficult situation assuming we do actually have 1 mole. This leaves us at 7 townies vs 1 mole(or 6th mafia). It also means there is likely no Godfather as all the list checks become accurate. Chaoser(found Caller) and Bum(killed Ace) both become unlikely candidates as the mole, since both have made large pro-town moves post-day 3(bum more so than Chaoser). Every other player in the game could be the mole. However, what I didn't realize until Bum pointed it out is that the mafia have known who the mole is since Day 1, which means we can look for players who have either been not targeted when they should have been or have not been pressed to be lynched by the mafia. A careful combing of the thread should give us some substantial leads considering we have 5 mafia members we can analyse.
These are the scenarios as I see them moving forward. I may have made a mistake along the way, so everyone should double check them and point out any inaccuracies or wrong assumptions.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
GM, what you should do with your last list/role checks depends on which scenario occurs. Same with Chaoser's checks and the Role Cop's check(we do have a role cop still right?).
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 26 2011 17:53 bumatlarge wrote:
Foolishness is obvious because of his connections with ace and what not, but I wouldn't say he has been scummy. Kita has been mostly a nonfactor this game, totally lurkish. Maybe I just haven't been paying close attention, but he seems like a good mole candidate.
I pointed out to the thread that tnkted claimed to be picking the busdriver, which led to his alignment check. I was the first person to call out Caller when everyone else was convinced he was town. I also was one of the few people who tried to push Calller for a role claim. How am I a good mole candidate?
GM should use his alignment vote check. Role checks won't be much help at this point.
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EPT
