TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 113
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Impervious
Canada4147 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I say we lynch cubed next for not changing his vote! No, just kidding. I know you guys mean well! @Kav: Just tell us who are your top 3 lynch candidates. | ||
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I'm glad we switched off Impervious. You have a lot of really scummy posts, but where dying too easily. I'm still suspicious of you though. I’ve been suspicious of cubedin since this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=184939¤tpage=51#1005 I pressured him over the next few pages. He claimed he was certain of one person whom he had a case against, yet he was talking wishy washy against 3 others and placing a weak vote. Much like his vote on Impervious. Later he claimed that the person he had been suspicious off was GMarshal. He promised to post his case no matter what, and it didn’t happen. He never posted any reasons for suspecting GMarshal, in fact he understood why Kav choose him as BG: On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote: Morning everyone. I scanned over the thread, got one question: Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering. I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information. … This was posted just one cycle before he was so certain of GMarshal, that he would have killed him if he had been a vigi or SK. I call bullshit, GMarshal was just an excuse for him since I kept bugging him to produce that case. Before the divenek lynch, it took a long while for Cubed to produce an opinion on divenek, and even then it didn't come until he had written opinions on everyone else. It's clear from his writing that he would much rather be grouped with BrownBear than divenek. Mafia would much rather be grouped with a town than with another mafia. My suspect list right now is 1. Cubedin 2. Impervious 3. Kenpachi | ||
CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I didn't produce opinions on ANYONE. Please understand that. When I did, I produced opinions on everyone. I'm not taking sides. If you want to pick Divinek out of that, be my guest. Also, I don't want to be grouped with anyone. I just explained who I would be against lynching: Kav and BB. That's all. And I even explained why. I didn't have to "choose" between him and divinek, like you're trying to make it look. I could've went with absolutely anyone in the game and your argument would be the same. Besides, you're acting as if Divinek is sure scum. Do you know that? Why are you assuming that I tried to "defend" him, even though I didn't, and now that he flipped scum, even though he didn't, I am backing out. Please. Also, I'm glad that you're dismissing Imprevious because nobody defended him. Part from the mass of people defending me ever since I've been targeted. That is a really good argument against, because mafia is surely stupid enough to try to get their target off the lynch by being the only person against the lynch. But you know what, I'm cool with that. Here's what I'm gonna do. I'm not gonna defend myself anymore. If you wanna lynch me, that's fine, but note this: If you misslynch now, and there are two mafia left, tomrrow will be lylo time. Have fun with killing me. | ||
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Well if I were to bring pressure down on GMarshall, and he was indeed SK as I thought, then he could simply kill me during the night. There was never a time when town was lacking lynch subjects, and I wasn't going to stick out and have possibly one-two people with me, and everyone else fighting about Nemesis or RoL (or whatever they were doing, there were always several lynch candidates). Oh now you think he was an SK? Thats not what you posted back then: Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues. I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet. I didn't produce opinions on ANYONE. Please understand that. When I did, I produced opinions on everyone. I'm not taking sides. If you want to pick Divinek out of that, be my guest. So you play mafia as town by finding people you would argue against lynching? Somehow I doubt that. And you clearly had an opinion on GMarshal, yet we lack a reason. Besides, you're acting as if Divinek is sure scum. Do you know that? Why are you assuming that I tried to "defend" him, even though I didn't, and now that he flipped scum, even though he didn't, I am backing out. I think we hit scum yes. I posted my reasons why. I never said you tried to defend divinek, I said you distanced yourself from him. But you know what, I'm cool with that. Here's what I'm gonna do. I'm not gonna defend myself anymore. If you wanna lynch me, that's fine, but note this: If you misslynch now, and there are two mafia left, tomrrow will be lylo time. Have fun with killing me. Exactly the gamble a lone mafia would put up. If you where town this would be when you started fighting, not several pages ago. | ||
CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
And if you're right, the night clue will have to point at me. So there's absolutely nothing you should worry about! I fought as long as the arguments were valid (like the night one clue), but now you can bend and push however you want. If you want to see how I play town, read the games where I played town. Easy. All you're doing is saying I'm scummy for defending myself, and now I'm scummy for not defending myself. I already told you who I consider scummy, the lurkers. But I guess that coming in during the last hour, voting, then disappearing is not scummy at all. You are biased, that's all. You had little reason to lynch divinek and are ignoring when a lot of other people to the same. So fine, lynch me. If game doesn't end I expect town to take jackal and you down. And I think that's fair. Let's just stop arguing and do it. | ||
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 11 2011 18:45 CubEdIn wrote: Ok here are my thoughts: 1. First I thought aidnai is scummy. Mostly because he's been extremely passive with his posts. Not taking any sides, not pushing anything, just trying to favor other people's ideas so as to not actually draw attention when the shit hits the fan. 2. Then I saw the analysis on LoL, and I figured, ok, that looks like a decent plan for town, high chance of it going well, might clarify some things, seems like a good day 1 vote. 3. Then aidnai starts defending him out of the blue. This changes everything. My gut feeling says that LoL is in fact townie, and aidnai knows this, and since he already has a mini-bandwagon going for him, aidnai thinks it's a good idea to defend him, so when he gets lynched and turns green, he will be absolved of guilt. I'm just thinking all this because it's more or less exactly what I'd do if I was scum and targeted so brutally on day 1. I know it's not good enough evidence, but I need to go with it for now. If town will need one extra vote to lynch LoL, I might change it, but for now... ##Vote aidnai Such a big difference from this game. | ||
CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [long posts] + On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote: What the fuck Coag? You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating. So either you're: a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore. You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules. Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining. On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote: Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual. I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive. That's my opinion on RoL's case at least. So I went back and looked at the clues. Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking. If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first? I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again. Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played). Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks. Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game. So, I think that it's important that DTs play well. Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them. That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red. I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread. So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully. That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN. Reasoning: He claimed he was hit. Scenarios: a) He is mafia. He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more. b) He is SK Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway. By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either. c) He is town This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on. The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote: Hello everyone. Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours. I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread. First of all, town sucks. Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this. We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help. Here's what I think: a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him". It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav. b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that? If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it. c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him. I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night. Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. + another bunch of posts where I was urging the town not to vote Nemesis Point is, I did stand up and made points when I thought points were to be made. Though, I admit, I have been doing that less in the past few days. Mostly because I have a much stronger feeling about who isn't scum then about who might be. Although I will say that I appreciate the fact that you bothered to go through my previous games. This is the kind of analysis I was talking about. | ||
Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 10 2011 22:52 CubEdIn wrote: [/b]Is it? + Show Spoiler [long posts] + On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote: What the fuck Coag? You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating. So either you're: a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore. You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules. Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining. On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote: Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual. I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive. That's my opinion on RoL's case at least. So I went back and looked at the clues. Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking. If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first? I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again. Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played). Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks. Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game. So, I think that it's important that DTs play well. Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them. That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red. I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread. So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully. That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN. Reasoning: He claimed he was hit. Scenarios: a) He is mafia. He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more. b) He is SK Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway. By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either. c) He is town This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on. The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote: Hello everyone. Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours. I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread. First of all, town sucks. Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this. We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help. Here's what I think: a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him". It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav. b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that? If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it. c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him. I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night. Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. + another bunch of posts where I was urging the town not to vote Nemesis Point is, I did stand up and made points when I thought points were to be made. Though, I admit, I have been doing that less in the past few days. Mostly because I have a much stronger feeling about who isn't scum then about who might be. Although I will say that I appreciate the fact that you bothered to go through my previous games. This is the kind of analysis I was talking about. Care to share? | ||
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I don't see any point discussing this further with you, we get clues in day post, and my opinion might change by then. | ||
darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On February 10 2011 23:19 Barundar wrote: You are only posting defensive posts. No accusations on anyone. I feel like I'm repeating myself over and over here. You haven't even posted your reasons for suspecting GMarshal. Your reasons are always "I don't really think this guy is mafia. But i have nothing better so I will vote for him". That is the difference between this game and the quote from PYP3. You offer zero contribution and zero scumhunting. Either you are playing absolutely terrible as town, in which case I beg you to shape up, or you are mafia. I don't see any point discussing this further with you, we get clues in day post, and my opinion might change by then. He played similarly in mini mafia V. I wouldn't suspect him right away, he draws attention to himself for absolutely no reason. When cornered, instead of offering good advice to help town win, he defends himself needlessly and makes himself even more suspicious. I wouldn't recommend lynching him since he's probably just playing bad town again. | ||
Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Impervious: I've already posted my analysis of him. I switched the vote of him because of the lack of real opposition. This doesn't clear him, but it made DivineK a better lynch. Cubedin: Barundar has brought up good points, and I'm not a big fan of how he's responded to the pressure. I'll be taking a look at him today, and hopfully give a more founded opinion later. Kenpachi: Uh...Others have brought up decent points, and his overall play seems scummy to me. Nothing solid yet, but that's because I haven't had time to analyze him. Darmousseh: I don't know what to think about him. He doesn't strike me as townie like most everybody else not on this list does, so he gets put last. I'll probably look into his play a bit too, though Cubedin has priority. | ||
Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
Also I'm kind of excited for this day post | ||
Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
On February 11 2011 10:26 GMarshal wrote: I'm just going to throw it out there that I find it funny that I am generating more discussion when dead than while I was alive Also I'm kind of excited for this day post why? kav is dying | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
Perhaps excited was the wrong word though, I just want to see what it contains. | ||
CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 11 2011 10:43 CubEdIn wrote: I wouldn't sweat it if I were you guys. Vig hit you? | ||
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