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I wouldn't really consider lynching Jackal, he's too noob to be mafia IMO.
Right now, my main suspect list consists of: Cubed Impervious Divinek
I took darmousseh off after revisiting him and re-evaluating my earlier analysis. I kind of agree with the fact that his contradictions and missteps seem more borne out of inexperience than malevolence, but I'm still keeping an eye on him.
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No, it just doesn't look that good when you've been online for over an hour and a half after saying you're gone.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 10 2011 04:52 CubEdIn wrote: I haven't posted thoughts on anyone, actually.
Throughout the game, I have suspected a lot of people who later on died. GMarshal was one of my prime suspects, actually, especially due to some things in the first part of the game. Then, I looked into Coagulation, Kenpachi, but compared to the other games they're just behaving normally. (Kenpachi has a gift for looking scummy btw, but I don't think he's scum).
I didn't think that Jackal is scum, I thought it was just tunneling, and I get that you have to try and rattle people in this game. But today when he said that he'll "keep doing that until he dies", mixed with the fact that some people take him for granted makes me think that it's a really really clever way to stay out of focus. He has me to target, and he doesn't have to give any other reasons than the clue. He'll just keep voting me until one of us dies, and only after that he needs to find another target (probably Divinek), and only after THAT, people will find him suspicious, and it might be too late. (I still agree with the trade, by the way, to get us both lynched, but you seemed to have turned from "trading" to "kill them both and then maybe somewhat consider me". But that's ok. For now.
Kav, I don't trust Kav. I haven't trusted kav since the beginning, but he did seem to help town in some tight spots and he figured out some things by himself (like pointing out bum before he claimed and whatnot). He also seems fishy with things like... he knew the mafia knew he was medic, but he didn't let the town know. Why? And even after the hit on him, he let people go on after clues before saying that he was protecting GM (at least I was trying to find a connection to 'the doctors couldn't help him', when in fact it was a straight-out explanation that he was medic protected but the medic was role-blocked). However, this doesn't matter, at all. If Kav was mafia he was still truthful about census, and his play would've been damn-right perfect. So if he was scum, then town has lost already.
BrownBear - I like him the most, because in many points throughout the game we were pretty much saying the same things, so we somewhat think alike. I was expected to be "paired" with him as mafia, not Divinek, but I see the reasoning there. And due to the fact that I know I'm green, and we posted pretty much the same things, I'll give him a 99% green in my book.
Barundar - I don't know. He poked at me twice during this game, but it seems reasonable. I'm not good at post analysis so I just do/say what I think. I didn't build up an opinion on him, but I was thinking that if he did nail some things on the mafia he'd have been dead a while back. So he might mean well but he hasn't proven as useful as Kav, for example. I would vote for easily if a clue pointed at him though.
Impervious - It's not just the connection, even though it's the ONLY connection that was found in the clue, it's also Kav's post regarding you, and the fact that the town is voting for you. I really don't know who to vote for, but someone has to die, and you're more than a coinflip to me due to the clue. I know it's terrible, I said it's terrible, but it's better than nothing at all. If Kav hadn't had the hunch about you, I would've probably voted for myself tonight. However, the fact that he only reacted when I voted for him is suspicious. There are what, 4-5 votes on him already, but when I vote for him he switches focus on me? Probably because part from him, I'm most likely to get lynched, so it's the only way out.
As for everyone else, I really don't have any clear thoughts on them. Mostly because they've been quiet, this includes darmousseh. I really don't like his play style, mainly because he bandwagons and FoSs only people who have been FoS-ed before. He's just sitting in a corner, laughing when everyone else is laughing, and tagging along for the ride, but he isn't even trying to bring his own contribution. In fact, the only meaningful contribution was "well, I also pushed cube in mini mafia, and he was town!". Well played there, powerful argument.
So, let's end it with Divinek. I also find him as sort-of a lurker. He doesn't say much, he doesn't do much, he mostly replies when he's being targeted. But the reason I left him for last is that... there are others that do the same. There's no good reason why I would think he is scum just because of that. And if you want me to agree that rooting for LD was scummy, then I would have to admit that what I did/said was scummy as well, which is dumb. If that's your reasoning, then there are three scum in the game left, since BB did the same. That being said, it's very possible that if the mafia knew there would only be two people left, then they would take different sides. One pushing for LD, someone pushing against LD. That's what I would do in that scenario.
Anyway, bottom line is that I don't really know if Divinek is scummy or not. But I don't think that his push for LD was scummy, so much as his lurking and playing along is. If he'd give out more insight he'd be ok in my book but he never does. So no, I wouldn't even bother coming up with arguments against his lynch, nor would I bother with anyone else part from Kav or BrownBear. Unless someone makes an epic post like Nemesis did, that clears him of all guilt in my eyes.
...boy that was long. Please ask me to detail if I was unclear, because I don't have time to proof-read it. Cheers.
The problem with your play cubed is you raise suspicion on people whom have the interest of town at heart such as kav. Instead of criticizing everyone's play, why not instead try to analyze to see if people are lying or identify clues. Simply raising suspicion on someone who is a confirmed townie is a terrible idea.
Other than that, sorry everyone about somewhat disappearing. Mini Mafia V was at the end and I was trying to analyze those clues. I promise to be more active now.
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Who's on?
I'm not convinced that impervious is town, based off my analysis, but no one has defended him, and that strikes me as odd.
I think that everyone agrees that DivineK is scummy, (Including himself, oddly enough, but I'll save that for my analysis.) I'd much rather lynch him atm.
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I'm on.
It's probably a bad thing for my studying if I don't get lynched, cause I know I'll keep checking this, and I have 4 midterms next week. Luckily, I actually demolished my midterm today, but I really should have studied more.....
At the same time, I don't want to die, because that's one wasted lynch for the town..... And we're close to a LYLO situation.....
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Zerroth has yet to vote, so hopefully he'll be mod-killed, and then we don't have to worry about mafia hiding in the lurkers.
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Alright, well I have to go soon, so I'll be offline till about an hour before the lynch.
IF YOU THINK IT'S TOO LATE TO SWITCH THE VOTE, IGNORE THE REST OF THIS.
This is what I'm thinking. We can afford a mis-lynch or two. The best place to hid as mafia is among those who do not give opinions, or suspicions. Those people are the hardest to analyze, so let's get rid of them to make sure the mafia aren't hiding among them. Zerroth and Divinek are the two main ones that come to mind.
While it would be nice to lynch scum today, it will be safer in the long run if we protect ourselves against this hazard.
I was planning on posting this later, so it's not totally done, but here's what i have on DivineK so far:
+ Show Spoiler +Divinek hasn't posted very much, so I there isn't a lot to pull from. I searched for contradictions within his posting and came up with a few, detailed below. + Show Spoiler [Post analysis] ++ Show Spoiler [Bad Idea/first post] +On January 24 2011 07:48 Divinek wrote: Trading damn near anything is worth it for a scum player in this game imo. Lol, you cearly don't realize how important the census is for verifying lynch. A veteran player like yourself should have realized just how useful that ability would be ina game with no flip. + Show Spoiler [Self discribed Scum-slip] +On January 28 2011 17:42 Divinek wrote: if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember
I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm. On January 28 2011 15:50 Divinek wrote: ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him.
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On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote: I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip? That was a scum slip. + Show Spoiler [SK Lynch Argument] +On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote: LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified On February 02 2011 13:15 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:13 GMarshal wrote:On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote: LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified I dont think you get it we aren't offering LunarDestiny a choice between serving town or some better deal, if lunar deviates at all from the towns instructions (which I think we should determine by majority vote) he hangs, I dont see where the disadvantage to giving town a second KP is. what, he's going to hang eventually anyways if he listens to you, because he confirms himself as the SK if he does. (or the other SK listens just to implicate him), or he could not listen to you and kill other people making it look like he's not the SK there's so much wifom i dont see how you can think he'd want to listen to us if he was SK. If he's been found out like this he's going to die eventually, his best bet is obviously to deny all claims and play it off like he's NOT the sk. On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote: I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. You're an experienced player. Your first game was actually the same game that Bumatlarge first played in. You said that a revealed SK would never bargain with town? It's happened in every single game I've played that had an SK. You knew better than that: LunarDestiny played with you in Insane Mafia, as a third party, and in a similar no-win position. What did he do? He went ape crazy and killed a bunch of mafia. You said that you are basing your position on past SKs but never mentioned Insane. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. He is the balancer. Whether SK is revealed or not is totally irrelevant to their win condition. It makes it much harder, but not impossible. SK has helped town several times before after being revealed, and hey look. It happened again. I will state it again. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. The mafia were in the lead at that point, so they would want the SK dead. After the lynch/SK/Modkill brought their numbers down to two, town was ahead, so we lynched the SK. It was after Mafia lost three people that Foolishness got on and posted this: On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote: If I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. Soon after Divinek was kind enough to provide us with this post. [B]On February 05 2011 09:10 Divinek wrote: confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule This whole argument is bad, and bad in a way that benefits the mafia. It doesn't make much sense from the perspective of a townie, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of Mafia However, contradictions or scummy SK plans aren't the only thing i found suspicious about Divinek. It's when and what his posts are about. + Show Spoiler [Behavioral Analysis] +First off, when I was browsing through Divinek's posts, I found an interesting similarity between Haunted Mafia and Mafia XXXVI: + Show Spoiler [Post comparison with known mafia/town…] +Divinek has been inactive. I don't think there's any arguing that point. In a thead of over 2000 posts, he has 38, roughly 1/50th of the posts. He posted very little at the beginning of the game, posted a bunch about the SK, and then got rather quite again, though, not as quite as before. I'd like to compare his posting from Haunted mafia ( Vampire), Team Meley Mini mafia ( townie) and this mafia ( Ma fi a?). (Note, he was subbed in, so his first real post was 744.)Notice the similarities? He more or less dissapears after a "Hi" post in the beginning, then lurks, popping up and posts a couple of posts, then dissapears again for a long time in both Haunted and this Mafia. In the Team Meley, he was much more active, and didn't disappear after his first couple of posts. This is similar to mafia play I've seen before where they say hi, then disappear for a while, while they get in touch with their scum buddies.
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On February 10 2011 08:32 Kavdragon wrote:Alright, well I have to go soon, so I'll be offline till about an hour before the lynch. IF YOU THINK IT'S TOO LATE TO SWITCH THE VOTE, IGNORE THE REST OF THIS. This is what I'm thinking. We can afford a mis-lynch or two. The best place to hid as mafia is among those who do not give opinions, or suspicions. Those people are the hardest to analyze, so let's get rid of them to make sure the mafia aren't hiding among them. Zerroth and Divinek are the two main ones that come to mind. While it would be nice to lynch scum today, it will be safer in the long run if we protect ourselves against this hazard. I was planning on posting this later, so it's not totally done, but here's what i have on DivineK so far: + Show Spoiler +Divinek hasn't posted very much, so I there isn't a lot to pull from. I searched for contradictions within his posting and came up with a few, detailed below. + Show Spoiler [Post analysis] ++ Show Spoiler [Bad Idea/first post] +On January 24 2011 07:48 Divinek wrote: Trading damn near anything is worth it for a scum player in this game imo. Lol, you cearly don't realize how important the census is for verifying lynch. A veteran player like yourself should have realized just how useful that ability would be ina game with no flip. + Show Spoiler [Self discribed Scum-slip] +On January 28 2011 17:42 Divinek wrote: if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember
I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm. On January 28 2011 15:50 Divinek wrote: ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him.
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On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote: I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip? That was a scum slip. + Show Spoiler [SK Lynch Argument] +On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote: LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified On February 02 2011 13:15 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 13:13 GMarshal wrote:On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote:On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote:On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote: LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills.
(also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified I dont think you get it we aren't offering LunarDestiny a choice between serving town or some better deal, if lunar deviates at all from the towns instructions (which I think we should determine by majority vote) he hangs, I dont see where the disadvantage to giving town a second KP is. what, he's going to hang eventually anyways if he listens to you, because he confirms himself as the SK if he does. (or the other SK listens just to implicate him), or he could not listen to you and kill other people making it look like he's not the SK there's so much wifom i dont see how you can think he'd want to listen to us if he was SK. If he's been found out like this he's going to die eventually, his best bet is obviously to deny all claims and play it off like he's NOT the sk. On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote: I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. You're an experienced player. Your first game was actually the same game that Bumatlarge first played in. You said that a revealed SK would never bargain with town? It's happened in every single game I've played that had an SK. You knew better than that: LunarDestiny played with you in Insane Mafia, as a third party, and in a similar no-win position. What did he do? He went ape crazy and killed a bunch of mafia. You said that you are basing your position on past SKs but never mentioned Insane. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. He is the balancer. Whether SK is revealed or not is totally irrelevant to their win condition. It makes it much harder, but not impossible. SK has helped town several times before after being revealed, and hey look. It happened again. I will state it again. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. The mafia were in the lead at that point, so they would want the SK dead. After the lynch/SK/Modkill brought their numbers down to two, town was ahead, so we lynched the SK. It was after Mafia lost three people that Foolishness got on and posted this: On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote: If I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. Soon after Divinek was kind enough to provide us with this post. [B]On February 05 2011 09:10 Divinek wrote: confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule This whole argument is bad, and bad in a way that benefits the mafia. It doesn't make much sense from the perspective of a townie, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of Mafia However, contradictions or scummy SK plans aren't the only thing i found suspicious about Divinek. It's when and what his posts are about. + Show Spoiler [Behavioral Analysis] +First off, when I was browsing through Divinek's posts, I found an interesting similarity between Haunted Mafia and Mafia XXXVI: + Show Spoiler [Post comparison with known mafia/town…] +Divinek has been inactive. I don't think there's any arguing that point. In a thead of over 2000 posts, he has 38, roughly 1/50th of the posts. He posted very little at the beginning of the game, posted a bunch about the SK, and then got rather quite again, though, not as quite as before. I'd like to compare his posting from Haunted mafia ( Vampire), Team Meley Mini mafia ( townie) and this mafia ( Ma fi a?). (Note, he was subbed in, so his first real post was 744.)Notice the similarities? He more or less dissapears after a "Hi" post in the beginning, then lurks, popping up and posts a couple of posts, then dissapears again for a long time in both Haunted and this Mafia. In the Team Meley, he was much more active, and didn't disappear after his first couple of posts. This is similar to mafia play I've seen before where they say hi, then disappear for a while, while they get in touch with their scum buddies.
no opinions or suspicions did you not read my case on kenpachi? Or do you trust him because he's in your circle?
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oh kav im going to address that random crap you underlined "he's probably even blue" no shit anyone could say that, that's based on his behaviour, you know being quiet and reserved like blues do
and then i said we shouldnt wait, then i ask why someone said we should wait, why would that be a scum slip. It's not even a contradiction lol, it's the same stance in both posts there's just a negative infront of the word wait because im asking about another persons stance.
I always think the SK is bad because he wants to kill everyone, who the fuck cares if he is a game balancer. If he is KNOWN there is no reason to trust anything about him, he knows he has lost and is at this point capable of anything, i dont care if that's how it has ever played out that's just how it is. I would play SK that way for the lolz and there's no reason stopping anyone from doing this so your whole rationale behind my stance on the SK is pointless. It would be fine if he wasn't known but once he's confirmed every argument about what he does is pointless because he is a dead man
also yeah im inactive now cause i have to deal with school, it doesnt matter what my alignment is i simply dont have time. It cant be hard to find recent games where im town and dont post much, given i probably die pretty early lol
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On February 10 2011 09:22 Kenpachi wrote: and what case?
that huge post i had that says your an inactive waste of life that has been contributing nothing to town at all. You dont have opinions are criticisms much like kav said we should look out for, you've been a rock posting one liners and no ones been questioning it and it's annoying me to death
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On February 10 2011 09:27 Divinek wrote:that huge post i had that says your an inactive waste of life that has been contributing nothing to town at all. You dont have opinions are criticisms much like kav said we should look out for, you've been a rock posting one liners and no ones been questioning it and it's annoying me to death Your paraphrase of Kavs post? lol
If anybody is interested you can plot out posts vs time. Divinek makes the most beautiful bell curve when we come to the issue of LD lynch or not. Nobody else does. You post then ghost the rest of the thread.
I'll put my vote on Divinek.
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Inactive is where you're wrong because i have been active the whole game and when an inactive criticizes others about being inactive, thats where its so wrong its not right. yea i get it that you were busy but dont call people inactives when you clearly are one too. Im trying to contribute to town as best as I can but I have a really hard time finding clues and doing analysis... Plus I disproved your case.
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BUT honestly, i think you're town because you are a 1 man army voting me :l
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Zerroth did you change your profile?
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Interesting piece of information I found. The song where divinek's name is from is about vampires.
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Kav, you're the last person I'd expect to actually suggest switching off of me lol.
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