TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 113

On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote:

What the fuck Coag?

You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating.
So either you're:
a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team
b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore.

You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules.
Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining.

On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual.
I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive.

That's my opinion on RoL's case at least.

So I went back and looked at the clues.
Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking.
If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first?
I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again.

Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played).

Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks.
Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game.
So, I think that it's important that DTs play well.
Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them.

That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red.

I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread.

So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully.

---

That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.

b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.

c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town.

On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Hello everyone.

Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours.
I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread.

First of all, town sucks.
Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this.

We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help.

Here's what I think:
a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him".
It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav.

b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that?
If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it.

c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him.

I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night.

Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.