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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
I believe we have about 4 hours left?
Anyways, I'm against the BrownBear/Subversion bandwagons. I think BB played terribly Day 1, but that doesn't mean we should lynch him for his piss poor play. It's highly unlikely Mafia slips up the way he did. As for Subversion, he's in the same boat.
As for lynch targets, I'll skip DTA, and vote for Chaoser simply because he seems to be pushing the BB/Subversion vote wagons pretty hard. Abstained on the first day, even though Abstaining is a rather dumb thing to do on the first day.
If you search through his past, you'll see Chaoser jumping all over Subversion just for a slight slip up, as if he's searching for the tiniest hole to blame someone for. As for DTA, I have my suspicions, but I'm gonna vote for my gut instinct in Chaoser.
##Vote: Chaoser
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I know that I haven't been that active yet but at least Im not dishing out accusations without any proof and then changing my mind when its time to vote.
I think Roffles are playing suspicions and since there are no other decent alternative I will vote for him. Think for yourself people and don't just jump on any bandwagon that has started,
Because my last vote wasn't in bol,d tnx Pandain for pm:ing me.
##vote Roffles
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Vote Count:
8] DarthThienAn (d3_crescentia, misder, Pyrrhuloxia, XeliN, zeks, Subversion, BrownBear, LaXerCannon) 5] Brownbear (Rastaban, Divinek, amber[LighT], tricode, ~opz~) 4] Subversion (tree.hugger, bumatlarge, darththienan, jayme) 4] chaoser (pandain, youngminii, Roffles, SouthRawrEa) 1] Roffles (lakrismamma) 1] Amber[LighT] (BloodyC0bbler) Abstain: (chaoser, SiNiquity, Protactinium, Infundibulum)
not voting and in risk of modkill:
nobody double lynch: 1/15
iNfuNdiBuLuM
I am counting infundibulum's voting on a double lynch and not a player as an automatic abstain. From this point forward if you vote on a double lynch you must vote on a player, and I will reflect that in the op.
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+ Show Spoiler +On July 20 2010 23:02 chaoser wrote: And to be truthful, I don;t really believe that BrownBear is townie just from the way he's posting. For the first day he pretty much posts nothing and bandwagons with no real reason. When people point him out of it (that he voted before reading) he goes oh well, it doesn't matter now when it CLEARLY did, the vote ended 6-5. Then, after a whole DAY of people pointing fingers at him he decides to come in and post about vets claiming and basically giving horrible advice. I'm inclined to say he's mafia who fucked up the first day and now he's trying to play dumb townie. Also, his whole ramble about claiming is pushing us off the topic of Subversion's suspicious vote as well as his little statement about how mafia isn't really making mistakes.
I'm not 100% clear on my vote yet but I'm watching BrownBear for now. And I also think we should vote double lynch. It's going to be 52 hours till the next lynch give or take, you guys don't think we'll have more than enough information then?
+ Show Spoiler +On July 21 2010 06:02 chaoser wrote: Also, I'm going to put in my vote for Subversion. So far I don't know how I feel about BrownBear. At first I wanted to vote him. He's been playing badly and didn't do anything day one. But then at the same time people jumped all over voting for him in the beginning until just recently when people switched to Subversion, or at least it feels like that.
Subversion's little mafia mistake statement is just weird all in all and was part of that voting block (everyone's already mentioned this) so I'll put my vote on him for now but I'll have to see. Still a full day left.
##vote Subversion
The only two times when I mention the problems I have with Subversion. Where am I jumping at "small holes?" I'm saying the same thing everyone else is, that his statement about mafia's mistake seems weird.
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
Feel free to think that way.
I ain't jumping on bandwagons, I'm just simply browsing back and making observations on how the game has played out. To put it simply, I think the mistakes Subversion and BrownBear made aren't Mafia type slip ups. In fact, I highly doubt the Mafia would act that reckless or use words the way Subversion did. To me, those are just newbie mistakes made by both players, as the Mafia has no need to pull such stupid stunts. Even if someone was in danger of getting modkilled and they were Mafia, they wouldn't ever dream of pulling such a stupid stunt as "Vote first, then read, and publicly claim so". No mafia would ever risk such a thing, as it just puts way too much suspicion on them.
Same goes for Subversion's slip up. So what'd I do? I went back, and browsed through everyone's post histories in this thread, and went to see who was pushing the vote boats. A few stuck out to me, but sure as hell Chaoser has done exactly what Mafia might do in such situations. Picked on word play, pounded the smallest things in order to generate a vote bandwagon. If you sift through his posts, half of them are simply vote recounts, which inflate his activity. In fact, he's been flying under the radar, and 1) abstained on Day 1, and has been pushing for Subversion's death ever since Day 2 started.
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
Subversion's little mafia mistake statement is just weird all in all and was part of that voting block (everyone's already mentioned this) so I'll put my vote on him for now but I'll have to see. Still a full day left.
There, you outlined it yourself. You acknowledge that his little mafia mistake is just weird, yet you still cast your vote for him. It isn't something that Mafia is stupid enough to slip up on, yet you're fueling the bandwagon even though you acknowledge that it's weird and unusual, not necessarily harmful in all.
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So seeing as people keep saying "God BB your plan sucks" (BC, Amber), I think it's time to actually defend my plan a little bit, because believe it or not, I'm sticking by it, and I think it's not a bad idea. Out of all of you who said my plan was terribad, there was only ONE person who asked me, either in the thread or PM, what the logic behind my plan was. So yeah, only one person who actually tried to figure out what was going on, instead of just saying "OMG BB sux lets vote for him." So that guy (you know who you are) - thank you. The rest of you, seriously?
I'm copying my reply to him here, because I think everyone should read it. If he feels like saying who he is, he can confirm that this is accurate.
+ Show Spoiler [my PM] + Yo, thanks for the PM.
My inactivity was partially due to me working most of the day, and partially due to me scrubbing and forgetting that the game had started :/
My logic behind vet roleclaim was thus, and I hope this makes sense:
In most TL Mafia setups, hosts choose to mask the number of certain roles actually present in the game (example: they won't tell you how many medics there are, only that medics are present in the game). This is to prevent situations like mass roleclaiming, where the town forces everyone to claim or get lynched, then checks the numbers against the numbers in the OP. This can be a very powerful town move if pulled off correctly, or give the mafia a ton of free blue roles to hit, but regardless, many hosts don't like it happening, so they prevent it from being possible.
In a setup like the one above, its impossible to say "all vets claim" and get an accurate result, because you don't know if there are 1, 2, or 3, or maybe even 4 vets, so it's trivial for scum to sneak a fakeclaim in there. Thus, nobody claiming can really be trusted, apart from DT rolechecks or people who get protected from a hit/vets who soak a hit.
Thus, in a normal game, vets fulfill the role everyone has said they should fulfill: They exists under the radar and hope mafia hits them, so they can soak a hit that would have otherwise killed someone. The problem is, this happens rarely (usually only once a game, if that), and somehow, vets always end up getting lynched. Thus, they aren't always the most helpful role.
My idea was thus: Since BM has told us there are exactly 2 vets in the game, we know there are exactly two vets in the game. In my experience, as I mentioned above, vets don't always do their job (not their fault, its just "doing their job" hinges on another group outside their control targeting them). As we've seen in other mafia games (Caller's RO3K game is a good example), when town bands together and has good organization, it's really easy for town to win. Mafia usually wins if they prevent town from organizing in this way.
Thus, I believe in this setup, the vets would actually be more helpful to town in the spotlight as town organizers, rather than in the shadows hoping to soak hits. As a vet has 2 nightlives, mafia has to waste an entire night just to kill one vet, rather than kill 2 others (and possibly hit other blues like DTs). This isn't something most mafia teams would be willing to do (especially if medics start protecting the vigis - they become unkillable).
So basically, we'd have the vets claim. If only 2 claim, we're set, we just have blues PM them, and start an epic town circle. Vets would know if people were lying because of the openness of the setup: if 3 DTs claim to them, they'd know one of them was scum, and could probably figure it out pretty quickly. This would be a great way to coordinate rolechecks, medic protection, even vigi kills or Mad Hatter Bombs depending on which of those roles we have. Essentially, town would become a well-oiled machine and would screw mafia over.
If more than 2 vets claim, we just have to rolecheck them, nail a mafia, and go back to the first scenario from that point out.
Now, naturally this plan isn't perfect. There are three major flaws:
1) If GF decided to appear as a vet to rolechecks, it sinks this plan completely, obviously.
2) If one or both vets is inactive/doesn't read the thread, that also sinks this plan.
3) The Suicide Bomber. This role exists to counter mass roleclaims and to prevent us from telling medics to protect certain people IN THE THREAD. It's very possible that the mafia might decide to bomb one of the vets - but that's why we have two. Mafia would be trading a scum for a townie.
Hope this makes sense! Ask me if you have any more questions.
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On July 22 2010 03:16 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2010 03:00 LaXerCannon wrote:On July 21 2010 19:16 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Now you may think that it is too obvious for the mafia to kill off someone who publicly calls them out. It's not. It's good strategy. In fact, I myself killed off Foolishness in a game I won because he was one of the few suspicious of me. If someone suspects you, they won't magically think you're innocent if you let them survive the night. People's heuristics for determining who they will vote for don't tend to shift too wildly over the course of a game. Even if people make a mistaken vote early, they will tend to justify it ex post facto and perhaps continue it (maybe what I'm doing here, but I think I have some good logic to back up my gut feeling). If you are mafia, and a member is getting 3rd/4th place in votes, even with just a couple, that member could be in 1st a few days later. By killing off the people who are suspicious of you, even if their reasons suck, you get talked about less and you literally shave off your vote total. It's not too bad of a strategy to just play whack-a-mole going after all your public detractors because you can always just say you're getting framed. I've been there, done that.
This post here, to me, was the most informative. I have never had the chance to play a red role before and such added perspective really helped me decide on a lynch target. I'm also quite intrigued by why DTA didn't die yet; he's a very strong player (not so much this game though) and should be a priority kill. ##vote: DarthThienAn If we play the game with this logic then BC should have been killed already, but he's still alive. Opz is still alive, he's a strong player too. What about Roffles, he's incredibly cunning and plays the part of mafioso and townie very well. Pyrr should have been killed based upon this logic as well. Infun should have probably been a good target. You're playing the game very counter-intuitively. You're insisting that strong players should die, not suspicious players. DTA is playing the Chezinu card, which is common play. There's always guaranteed to be one of those idiot players in the game. The host himself has played this card before in games... I can't believe the people that are coming forward insisting that killing subversion will gain no knowledge. Killing DTA just verifies his play-style. We can actually tie a connection between DTA and Subversion as well as the people who are trying to avoid talking about DTA at all, or those who are supporting one lynch target over another. I'm not going to sit here and say killing DTA is wrong, he is still a target due to his play-style this game, but he's going to give us less information than lynching Subversion. Do whatever you want but don't justify your lynch vote by saying DTA is a good player and I think other people's opinions are strong, so this must be a good choice. Sheep.
But not all of them can drop dead immediately can they? It's true I said DTA's a good player, but is he in this game? He's playing worse than he normally does. Spreading confusion does NOT help the town at all.
I read their opinion and added it to my own and used it to fuel my vote. Call it sheep if you must.
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Your plan is an easy-out for the Godfather as he can be checked as a veteran. We will have to check every player who claims as a vet, and when that happens and the town is organized, which will happen on day 5 or so, we will have to start lynching veterans until we spot the GF. That's really risky and doesn't put the veteran role to good use.
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On July 22 2010 05:35 BrownBear wrote:So seeing as people keep saying "God BB your plan sucks" (BC, Amber), I think it's time to actually defend my plan a little bit, because believe it or not, I'm sticking by it, and I think it's not a bad idea. Out of all of you who said my plan was terribad, there was only ONE person who asked me, either in the thread or PM, what the logic behind my plan was. So yeah, only one person who actually tried to figure out what was going on, instead of just saying "OMG BB sux lets vote for him." So that guy (you know who you are) - thank you. The rest of you, seriously? I'm copying my reply to him here, because I think everyone should read it. If he feels like saying who he is, he can confirm that this is accurate. + Show Spoiler [my PM] + Yo, thanks for the PM.
My inactivity was partially due to me working most of the day, and partially due to me scrubbing and forgetting that the game had started :/
My logic behind vet roleclaim was thus, and I hope this makes sense:
In most TL Mafia setups, hosts choose to mask the number of certain roles actually present in the game (example: they won't tell you how many medics there are, only that medics are present in the game). This is to prevent situations like mass roleclaiming, where the town forces everyone to claim or get lynched, then checks the numbers against the numbers in the OP. This can be a very powerful town move if pulled off correctly, or give the mafia a ton of free blue roles to hit, but regardless, many hosts don't like it happening, so they prevent it from being possible.
In a setup like the one above, its impossible to say "all vets claim" and get an accurate result, because you don't know if there are 1, 2, or 3, or maybe even 4 vets, so it's trivial for scum to sneak a fakeclaim in there. Thus, nobody claiming can really be trusted, apart from DT rolechecks or people who get protected from a hit/vets who soak a hit.
Thus, in a normal game, vets fulfill the role everyone has said they should fulfill: They exists under the radar and hope mafia hits them, so they can soak a hit that would have otherwise killed someone. The problem is, this happens rarely (usually only once a game, if that), and somehow, vets always end up getting lynched. Thus, they aren't always the most helpful role.
My idea was thus: Since BM has told us there are exactly 2 vets in the game, we know there are exactly two vets in the game. In my experience, as I mentioned above, vets don't always do their job (not their fault, its just "doing their job" hinges on another group outside their control targeting them). As we've seen in other mafia games (Caller's RO3K game is a good example), when town bands together and has good organization, it's really easy for town to win. Mafia usually wins if they prevent town from organizing in this way.
Thus, I believe in this setup, the vets would actually be more helpful to town in the spotlight as town organizers, rather than in the shadows hoping to soak hits. As a vet has 2 nightlives, mafia has to waste an entire night just to kill one vet, rather than kill 2 others (and possibly hit other blues like DTs). This isn't something most mafia teams would be willing to do (especially if medics start protecting the vigis - they become unkillable).
So basically, we'd have the vets claim. If only 2 claim, we're set, we just have blues PM them, and start an epic town circle. Vets would know if people were lying because of the openness of the setup: if 3 DTs claim to them, they'd know one of them was scum, and could probably figure it out pretty quickly. This would be a great way to coordinate rolechecks, medic protection, even vigi kills or Mad Hatter Bombs depending on which of those roles we have. Essentially, town would become a well-oiled machine and would screw mafia over.
If more than 2 vets claim, we just have to rolecheck them, nail a mafia, and go back to the first scenario from that point out.
Now, naturally this plan isn't perfect. There are three major flaws:
1) If GF decided to appear as a vet to rolechecks, it sinks this plan completely, obviously.
2) If one or both vets is inactive/doesn't read the thread, that also sinks this plan.
3) The Suicide Bomber. This role exists to counter mass roleclaims and to prevent us from telling medics to protect certain people IN THE THREAD. It's very possible that the mafia might decide to bomb one of the vets - but that's why we have two. Mafia would be trading a scum for a townie.
Hope this makes sense! Ask me if you have any more questions.
omg stfu newb your plan sucks.
+ Show Spoiler +
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BB you just outlined a plan that works in the elimination of a GF + bomber. You know that both are still alive, so arguing your point is what makes the idea dumb. IF GF + Bomber were dead, or hell if even the bomber was dead, it would be marginally reasonable. Instead you keep pushing a plan that we cannot in any way perform as of this moment. Why keep pushing it knowing that it can't succeed at this venture? seriously dude, that is why your getting called out for being dumb.
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I think that veteran claim is a tactics for the longer game. This is more usefull when we have more information and the suicide bomber makes it too dangerous at the moment.
I have changed my mind after reading chaosers posts I consider him far more scummy than Subversion and DTA. I will vote for him so my vote means something.
Roffels are still under heavy suspicion though.
##unvote ##vote Chaoser
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Right now I believe the two viable decisions are either Chaoser or Darth. They are the two most likely canidates for actually being mafia. BB and Subversion are just new and people are jumping on them for really miniscule posts. The only one thing that could lead to one of them being mafia is Subversions deciding vote in favor of Hyperbola, however that is still unlikely because it is just as likely that 1)The Mafia didn't know of BM's miscount 2)He just voted at an unlucky time.
So all those who are picking either BB or Subversion (especially BB) I urge you to change your vote and vote for either Darth of Chaoser. I would suggest Chaoser, just because I find him more likely to be mafia than DTA. To me, it still seems that Chaoser is just trying to get people lynched and DTA could be plannign something. Of course we should keep an eye on DTA, but let's not just lynch him and ruin anything he might be doing.
I would urge you to vote Chaoser, but at the very least I humbly request all those not voting either DTA/Chaoser to unvote and pick one of them.
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On July 22 2010 05:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote: BB you just outlined a plan that works in the elimination of a GF + bomber. You know that both are still alive, so arguing your point is what makes the idea dumb. IF GF + Bomber were dead, or hell if even the bomber was dead, it would be marginally reasonable. Instead you keep pushing a plan that we cannot in any way perform as of this moment. Why keep pushing it knowing that it can't succeed at this venture? seriously dude, that is why your getting called out for being dumb.
Sigh. What happens in the case that GF decided not to appear as vet? Not a problem. Also, if you actually happened to read carefully, you would notice that i said SB doesn't necessarily break the plan - it just throws a wrench in it. It just requires more careful planning + execution.
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On July 22 2010 06:03 Pandain wrote: Right now I believe the two viable decisions are either Chaoser or Darth. They are the two most likely canidates for actually being mafia. BB and Subversion are just new and people are jumping on them for really miniscule posts. The only one thing that could lead to one of them being mafia is Subversions deciding vote in favor of Hyperbola, however that is still unlikely because it is just as likely that 1)The Mafia didn't know of BM's miscount 2)He just voted at an unlucky time.
So all those who are picking either BB or Subversion (especially BB) I urge you to change your vote and vote for either Darth of Chaoser. I would suggest Chaoser, just because I find him more likely to be mafia than DTA. To me, it still seems that Chaoser is just trying to get people lynched and DTA could be plannign something. Of course we should keep an eye on DTA, but let's not just lynch him and ruin anything he might be doing.
I would urge you to vote Chaoser, but at the very least I humbly request all those not voting either DTA/Chaoser to unvote and pick one of them.
Don't know where you've been, but I'm not exactly new at this point. I screwed up day 1, but I've played many games here before.
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On July 22 2010 06:04 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2010 05:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote: BB you just outlined a plan that works in the elimination of a GF + bomber. You know that both are still alive, so arguing your point is what makes the idea dumb. IF GF + Bomber were dead, or hell if even the bomber was dead, it would be marginally reasonable. Instead you keep pushing a plan that we cannot in any way perform as of this moment. Why keep pushing it knowing that it can't succeed at this venture? seriously dude, that is why your getting called out for being dumb. Sigh. What happens in the case that GF decided not to appear as vet? Not a problem. Also, if you actually happened to read carefully, you would notice that i said SB doesn't necessarily break the plan - it just throws a wrench in it. It just requires more careful planning + execution.
I think we're saying that this plan would just be more dangerous than it would be fruitful, so until we have more information to go on we shouldn't do that just yet.
Also, as I currently understand it is quite common for the GF to pick Veteran so therefore it woudl be quite common that the plan would begin to deteoriate. I understand where you're coming from but as of now I do not believe your plan would be the most suitable for the town right now.
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On July 22 2010 06:05 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2010 06:03 Pandain wrote: Right now I believe the two viable decisions are either Chaoser or Darth. They are the two most likely canidates for actually being mafia. BB and Subversion are just new and people are jumping on them for really miniscule posts. The only one thing that could lead to one of them being mafia is Subversions deciding vote in favor of Hyperbola, however that is still unlikely because it is just as likely that 1)The Mafia didn't know of BM's miscount 2)He just voted at an unlucky time.
So all those who are picking either BB or Subversion (especially BB) I urge you to change your vote and vote for either Darth of Chaoser. I would suggest Chaoser, just because I find him more likely to be mafia than DTA. To me, it still seems that Chaoser is just trying to get people lynched and DTA could be plannign something. Of course we should keep an eye on DTA, but let's not just lynch him and ruin anything he might be doing.
I would urge you to vote Chaoser, but at the very least I humbly request all those not voting either DTA/Chaoser to unvote and pick one of them.
Don't know where you've been, but I'm not exactly new at this point. I screwed up day 1, but I've played many games here before.
Fine then . Vote Brown bear. .
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I really hope you guys aren't lynching me -_-. This is a filler post since I just woke up and there's three hours left. Replying to Pyrr's big post now.
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On July 22 2010 06:07 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2010 06:04 BrownBear wrote:On July 22 2010 05:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote: BB you just outlined a plan that works in the elimination of a GF + bomber. You know that both are still alive, so arguing your point is what makes the idea dumb. IF GF + Bomber were dead, or hell if even the bomber was dead, it would be marginally reasonable. Instead you keep pushing a plan that we cannot in any way perform as of this moment. Why keep pushing it knowing that it can't succeed at this venture? seriously dude, that is why your getting called out for being dumb. Sigh. What happens in the case that GF decided not to appear as vet? Not a problem. Also, if you actually happened to read carefully, you would notice that i said SB doesn't necessarily break the plan - it just throws a wrench in it. It just requires more careful planning + execution. I think we're saying that this plan would just be more dangerous than it would be fruitful, so until we have more information to go on we shouldn't do that just yet. Also, as I currently understand it is quite common for the GF to pick Veteran so therefore it woudl be quite common that the plan would begin to deteoriate. I understand where you're coming from but as of now I do not believe your plan would be the most suitable for the town right now.
Ok, that's a legitimate complaint. I'll accept that.
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At least Brown bear is being more active, and the poitn stands that as of now Chaoser and DTA are showing more characteristics of mafia than these two fella's.
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