Time to pay my taxes =o. Incognito’s idea for analysis sounds very efficient, so I think everyone should follow. My guy: Osmoses + Show Spoiler +First, from Zbot: + Show Spoiler +On April 20 2010 10:28 ZBot wrote:Osmoses+ Show Spoiler +On April 16 2010 23:47 Osmoses wrote: /in On April 18 2010 02:03 Osmoses wrote: Que madness: On April 18 2010 02:20 Osmoses wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 02:09 Abenson wrote:On April 18 2010 02:03 Osmoses wrote: Que madness: Que madness means: "I am scum" in hebrew ##vote: Osmoses Firebat > Zergling. Owned. On April 18 2010 02:25 Osmoses wrote: Well by then I'll be a... uh... I wanna say vulture? They got spider mines you know. On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote: I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on? On April 18 2010 09:10 Osmoses wrote: I'd say of course, comparing posting before and after game start can show differences depending on role. On April 18 2010 09:11 Osmoses wrote: I shall return with my brilliant insights when the day begins in Sweden as well. On April 18 2010 17:18 Osmoses wrote: I'm suspicious of Zona, his attack on BC seems forced somehow, too condescending, but also too fervent for both to be scum. Why is everyone, that is to say BM, focusing on the assasins anyway? It seems to me they are very unlikely to win in the end, as they will probably be lynched or killed by other assassins well before the end of the game.
Here's my supergenius plan: lynch the least active player, it's the quiet ones you gotta watch! On April 18 2010 20:18 Osmoses wrote: Ace, if newbies weren't allowed, there'd be no games, period. Your bitching doesn't help anyone get better. On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote: Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.
Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds. On April 19 2010 10:08 Osmoses wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:32 Caller wrote:On April 19 2010 07:29 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:On April 19 2010 07:16 Caller wrote:On April 19 2010 07:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I actually thought Caller's first post was pretty good because it rerailed the town discussion away from BM's plan, which had been beat to death. He also identified the sort of non committal passerby posts that people need to watch for and remember. However, I'm not sure how he arrived at the conclusion that Ace's strong accusations are the signs of a pro-town player. The wifom part was incorrect, and the part about inexperienced players posting more is basically an obvious truthism; pointing out something like that has no bearing on his innocence or guilt and so garners no points from me.
and why Nai Protoss all of a sudden? he's just about as useful as all the other semi-inactives. Killing him doesn't really tell us much at all, i don't think...and at least he's posting now that we're talking about him in the thread. To be honest, now that I read it again, your post wasn't as much of a WifoM as I had thought the first time. The reason I suspect nai.protoss now is because he demonstrated that while he reads the posts, he doesn't read the posts. Not only that, but he came out of nowhere to do the very thing I said not to do and left without responding to my allegations. I can see the situation very clearly (this happened to me multiple times in the previous mafia as follows): a) I make a retarded post. LMNOP and Shinbi-chan are like WTF CALLER UR A FUCKIN MORON b) They tell me to stfu and Shinbi-chan posts a load of bullcrap to derail anybody from noticing my fishy as shit posts. c) everything goes back to normal. What's to think the same thing didn't happen here? If you look at other threads you will see this is my first game. The two mafia type players you described before were the quite members that pretty much agreed with townies and offered no opinion themselves, and the experienced mafia members which appeared to be extremely pro-town. Now why would an inexperienced member of the mafia do the exact thing that you just stated as showing mafia members. No reason what so ever. An inexperienced townie however that doesn't want to get lynched for being inactive, but also is to inexperienced to actually add anything to the conversation has nothing to lose from agreeing with the "experienced townie". You're already judging yourself to having nothing to add? Are you kidding? I'm telling you this now: whenever "experienced townies" take control of the town, town tends to lose pretty hard. Say something! We need people to think outside of the box, both in game and for the metagame. What do you have to say? Do you have anything to say? Would you even like to justify your vote for me? Just because some "big name" player with a x000 post count is talking doesn't mean they know what they're talking about. Look at me or L for instance. We need inexperienced players to think outside of the mafia box to give us better ideas for gameplay. Say something! I said something and you called me out for being a crap poster. I was trying to figure stuff out, apparently I shouldn't do so out loud. You want clear and concise, how about this: 1. BC entered a game which he seems uninterested in winning and even seems to advocate getting lynched. He is either A) wasting his time or B) reverse psychology scum. 2. Ace and Caller are supposed to know what they're doing but they're shitting all over each other. I suspect at least one of them may be scum. 3. Caller is trying to play the good cop: Show nested quote +Just because some "big name" player with a x000 post count is talking doesn't mean they know what they're talking about. Look at me or L for instance. We need inexperienced players to think outside of the mafia box to give us better ideas for gameplay. Say something! I had a 4th bullet but I lost my train of thought. On April 20 2010 05:32 Osmoses wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 13:53 Incognito wrote:Time to pull out the accusation gun. Osmoses: On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote: I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on? This is his first real post. He plays the I'm a newbie card, and proceeds to ask a question that is already being discussed. No contribution here. He also makes preemptive excuses for his posting, emphasizing that he is a newbie, but...you get the picture. Check out TL Mafia V for an example of Tricode pulling the same stunt. From experience, new pro-town players would not try to emphasize their newbiness, as it adds a burden for the town. On the other hand, new mafia players tend to use this to excuse their useless behavior. Panic usually sets in and they try to play the im confused card. On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote: Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.
Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds. More confusion. How ironic. Anyway...Ok...So its tiring trying to find out who is who...but you haven't said anything yet about what you HAVE found out. Oh you also say there's little information to go on? Yeah I'm sure its very tiring to look for information that's not there...in which case you might as well just have given up. Oops! Well, if you're so tired trying to information, surely you must have found at least something. Spit it out. We want to hear it. Again with this? I'm really sorry, but I AM a newbie and I AM confused, I don't know what to say. I'm just trying to be active and participate, but I don't know what to look for or what angles to analyze from. :/ But in my defense, in the first post you quoted I was giving what I thought was a pretty rational opinion on the double lynch and in the second post I personally thought I was being helpful, sorting out the assassin roles. The point I was trying to get across was that we shouldn't be focusing on them, spending all our time trying to figure out how to get them to work in our advantage seems pretty wasteful to me. How is this not an honest attempt at contribution? But alright, let me tell you exactly why I think BC and Zona are suspicious: Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 05:16 Zona wrote:On April 18 2010 04:36 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Why? because we are the "three big names" and as such should take more of a backseat in this game. Wait, what? You claim to be one of the "big names" and you are already giving yourself an excuse for low activity? Seems like a convenient excuse so you produce fewer chances of slipping up and revealing yourself if you were mafia. While this might seem a perfectly reasonable argument, in fact I'd say it might've been one of the reasons I suspect BC, but the fact that it comes from Zona and is directed at BC is what made me suspicious. Both are supposedly veterans who ought to be at least decent at hiding their agenda, but Zona is accusing BC of taking a backseat because he's afraid he'll screw up. It just struck me as an odd way to start, too agressive, and seemed like a mock fight to direct attention away from Zona. Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 04:36 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Detectives. Read flamewheels last game. That is how you should be operating this game. Take a list of players from the get go, all down. As one person dies, mark down their role, if they were town/mafia, and a tally of how many from each side are left. This is a numbers game. If you find a red player, (hopefully not day 1) mark it down. Hopefully you have been given the right to PM this game. Are you kidding? You really think that in a game where most players cannot PM, someone would both be able to PM and DT check? As well - all the roles have been revealed in the game, none of the abilities are hidden. Why would you even consider that DTs would be able to PM as well? Detectives need to target players with the aim of finding mafia in a game with no out of thread communications with fellow players. Why? With no out of thread communications with fellow players the usefulness of finding a fellow town player is greatly diminished. It probably isn't a good idea to claim detective early in the game unless you're close to being lynched. If the town already has some suspicion on someone you have checked to be mafia, you should keep up the pressure. However, early in the game it'll be difficult to go after someone you found red if the rest of the town isn't suspicious of them, so keep your result under your hat and pay attention to what this person does, and later on see if you can identify this person's teammates, or go after them once they create more suspicion upon themselves. If the town is getting killed off and is approaching a loss, AT THAT POINT you probably want to claim if you've found some red. You may also want to be more aggressive in going after someone if lynching that person would take mafia numbers from odd to even, which will reduce their KP by one (a big deal in a game such as this). OK, this seemed at first like a bunch of weird jibber jabber to me. First of all BC is a veteran but didn't even bother to read the rules, which is what Zona immediately jumps on. But lets be honest, do you ever read a manual unless you can't figure something out? I never do, and I'm guessing BC simply didn't bother either because he assumed something or because he couldn't be assed, either way, how is lazyness a mark of scum? His whole attack was just stupid, he's basically jumping on BC for not knowing the rules and their implications. He's grasping at straws, trying to find any reason to jump on BC. This seemed a scummy move to me. Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 04:36 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Medics Protect the obvious townies. WITH ONE MAJOR EXCEPTION. No medic in this game period protect these three people: Ace Caller BloodyC0bbler. Curious. If medics do what you instruct them to do, then if any of these players are town, it makes them easy to kill at night and easy for the mafia to deprive the town of their ability. But actually from my point of view the only player on this list that I would really try to keep around if town would be Ace. I haven't seen Caller being particularly useful as a town player, nor you, especially in this type of setup. You seem to be strongest in games where PMs are allowed, even your plans contain hopes that DTs are able to PM. The "build a town PM circle and then DT-check/confirm everyone" strategy doesn't work here, and at least from my view that seems to be your strength, rather than people analysis. In fact in past games as a prominent pro-town player you've heavily advocated lynching players who ended up being town when you couldn't rely on DT-checks and other ways to confirm. This was the only reasonable argument he made, and the one reason I considered whether Zona wasn't just being stupid in his other posts and had a lucky brainwave here. BC is playing the benevolent veteran, but he's overdoing it, like a big Santa Claus, and this along with the very next part of the above quote: Show nested quote +Let us live or die based on actions. Our deaths will take a bit of experience out of the town, but if we are red and survive, we will be caught very very quickly and offed by town from it. is what really got me wondering about BC. Live or die based on actions? Who's actions? The mafia's obviously, as they're the only ones the medics can protect them against (if I understood their role right). And then he says "if we are red and survive, we will be caught very very quickly" so what was the PROBLEM!? His whole strategy is one big oxymoron. And basically, as he suddenly appreared very scummy, I started having second thoughts about Zona, though if they're working together that might've been their plan. Third option is BC had a short cirquit and Zona jumped at the chance of getting something of actual merit to accuse him with. And lately I've started to suspect Jugan. To be perfectly honest, I have no good reasoning for this, he's just being really annoying and I'd take any excuse to get him the hell out of here. -_- Also, Radfield, please don't insult me by saying I was jumping on Bill Murrays bandwagon, because imo its a failtrain, I honestly thought his assassin strategy was a joke. In conclusion, I'm with RaGe on the whole FoS thing, can we at least wait until we have some semblance of information before we lynch people who are at least active and participating? By all means if you wanna point the FoS at me, do so, but have some merit to your arguments, don't just lynch me for trying to be useful. On April 20 2010 06:42 Osmoses wrote: Better get yourself another tampon, you're bleeding all over the place. On April 20 2010 06:48 Osmoses wrote: OK that did made me giggle... But I'm not proud of it. On April 20 2010 11:09 Osmoses wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2010 11:01 madnessman wrote:On April 20 2010 10:33 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:On April 20 2010 09:59 Caller wrote: ugh, this tells us nothing, why was he railroaded -_- shit just happens, i guess. At least he was an assassin and not green. Meh, I think this is worrying in that I doubt there are many assassins in this game. So if town+mafia end up accidentally killing all the assassins save one, I'm guessing that one assassin wins and game ends lol. Game doesn't END if an Assassin wins... right? I thought the Assassin won and the game continued for the rest of the players. Also, I dunno if jpak being an assassin was good or bad, but it is definitely funny. On April 21 2010 08:40 Osmoses wrote: I'm not concerned about RaGe, his arguments are solid. I'm more concerned about Fulgrim, JadeFist, nbtnbt5, love1another, and motbob, all of which have barely participated at all. Are you too busy huddling around a round table at your italian restauraunt?
Caller, all your arguments still stem from what you would have done if you were mafia. Is anyone here saying that Caller is surely pro-town? I'm not saying you're definitely scum, but you definitely do not come off as pro-town to me. So far all you've done is sow dissent and point fingers, and when you attack RaGe and he doesn't go apeshit that somehow translates to surefire scum? Do you have to be a hothead to be mafia? Maybe RaGe's gameplan is more complex than "if someone says something that I find fishy in any way, I must call that person out as scum." That's your gameplan, and I don't think it's working. Please stop congratulating people for making your suspect list, it doesn't seem to be particularly difficult.
Anyone else think maybe he's doing this on purpose? I can't follow his logic.
The only one I would say I'm sure is town is tree.hugger, he's clear, conscise and has intelligent things to say.
As for Zona, can we get a statement? Your recent absence aside, the automatic archives is awesome, much props. Cynan, you were pretty active at first but lately (like, your last 10 posts) you've been very tight-lipped and short of words. I think it would be good to see more than a oneliner the next time you post?
KF91, going through your posts I agree with most of what you say, but then, When it reaches Day 3 or so (We would have about 10 less players than right now), I think it would be more manageable for me to start analyzing and accusing people.
Just what you'll be doing for the first two days. Participation is low as it is, it seems to me we can use every voice at this point. Those should be all his posts, for reference. He also voted for nbtnbt5, calling it just a random vote on an inactive. He then changed it to jpak. He was the 7th to do so, after BC, Fishball, Radfield, KF91, Cynan, and d3, which is pretty far in and might be considered a “bandwagon.” But if he, like me, was just trying to get rid of possibly useless inactives, it makes sense for him to change his vote to someone who might actually get lynched. I’m not reading too much into this vote change. He also says when changing to jpak: “RaGe has done nothing but ask us to chill the fsck out.” His first post was “Que madness:” and it was relatively early, probably just a nothing comment, but Abenson jumped on him and tried to vote for him straight off the bat (later apologized). He then says “Firebat > Zergling. Owned.” Alluding to their post count on TL (and portraits). The exchange with Abenson is pretty useless and not game related. As Inc pointed out before, he prefixes his next post with the “I’m noob” card, and then suggests that saving the double lynch is better. Is this his first game? If so, then this is pretty legitimate. If not, then he’s probably faking and scum. (my first game and I didn’t take the time to read through old games, so if vets can answer this) In his next relevant post, he notes his suspicions of the Zona v BC argument; suggesting that one of the two is scum. He also says that we shouldn’t be focusing about assassins (the whole BM thing) since they don’t matter too much (which we all know now). “Here's my supergenius plan: lynch the least active player, it's the quiet ones you gotta watch!” He follows through with what he says here in his voting, as noted earlier. Then, he reasserts that we shouldn’t worry about assassins. After this, Caller calls him out for having a “mafia-like” post that is really vague, non-committing, and not contributing. Responding to Caller’s calling him out (=D), he writes a pretty aggressive post, saying BC is either “wasting his time or scum,” also saying that either Ace or Caller is scum, and accusing Caller of “trying to be good cop.” So this post reminds of his earlier post, saying that either Zona or BC is scum – it seems he likes comparing two guys against each other (bad grammar, you know what I mean). The next related thing we have is Inc calling Osmoses out. Inc basically accuses him of Caller did, which is not really contributing at all despite an okay amount of posting. “all of his posts are empty” in a sense. On a side note before his next post, Radfield mentions his early Zona post, and points out that Osmoses was bandwagon-ing a little (following BM) in accusing Zona. But I guess, even though Radfield was the DT, he never got to check anyone, so this isn’t that big of deal, just a pro-towner’s analysis. Osmoses takes awhile to respond to Inc, but he finally gets around to it, saying “I'm really sorry, but I AM a newbie and I AM confused, I don't know what to say. I'm just trying to be active and participate,” so his response to Inc is to reassert his failure. But he follows up with some good analysis of BC/Zona, calling Zona “too aggressive” and somewhat scummy. The analysis seems pretty good, he picks out a lot of subtle things from Zona’s posts. He concludes that post with an agreement with Rage’s non-FoS plan. His next couple posts are mysteries to me… something about a bleeding tampon, and then a comment on Ace’s trolling. The second one is irrelevant, but the first… idk lol. ---Night 1 comes--- His first night post… laughs at how jpak was an assassin. …..o.o. I’m not sure why it’s funny. This to me, is a little suspicious, but not too too much. His next post has some analysis. He once again defends Rage, and calls out a few other inactives. He then bashes on Caller, saying that Caller might be scum. He labels tree.hugger as town “for sure,” and calls Zona out again for being inactive, calls out Cynan as well. He agrees with KF91, and says Day 3 is a good day to start analyzing… which to me is either stupid or suspicious. ConclusionThat was mostly summary, lol. Osmoses seems to have a accusation habit of pairing two guys and saying it’s one or the other. He’s been particularly favoring Zona, which makes sense to me – once you have someone in your notes and they don’t do anything to change it, they … stay there. I might be guilty of the same thing in this game actually. Perhaps the most suspicious things from him are his slight inactivity, his complying with Caller’s request exactly and replying with a very aggressive post, his attachment to Rage (or so it seems), and his siding with postponing analysis / doubly lynching until later… I don’t really know what to make out of his posts. Maybe someone can look at what I’ve written and come up with a verdict. Osmoses has a feel suspicious things about him, most of them I just listed, but overall, he’s offered up some good analysis and, despite a little inactivity, hasn’t done anything that screams scum to me.
ggglglgl.
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On April 21 2010 03:01 Caller wrote: Rage, congratulations, you just confirmed my suspicions of you as mafia.
Consider the facts:
every single piece of evidence I tossed at RaGe was flimsy and easily torn apart by simple, reasonable, logic. In fact look at my post history:
OK, this is the main post I want to look at. The problem is that Caller's writing style makes it kinda hard to understand what he's actually trying to get across here.
Here he says that he deliberately set up flimsy arguments against Rage. It is true that the arguments were flimsy as myself and i think 1-2 others pointed out, though i did agree that Rage coming out of the shadows to lynch another inactive was fishy. So Caller's claim, if i am reading correctly, is that he set up shitty arguments as a trap for Rage (and maybe anyone else who wanted to argue?)
Let's say RaGe is pro-town. Thus he would consider his ideas to be pro-town as well. Thus, anybody that goes against his ideas would be considered anti-town and thus a lynch candidate, or they're a stupid townie. Despite reality and statistics, people generally consider me a good player, so they automatically remove me from the idea of "stupid townie" even though that is usually my role. Thus the only apparent choice is that I'm anti-town and should therefore be lynched. This is especially because if RaGe truly was pro-town, and I not only go against him but accuse him with basically nonsense and nulltells, that this means that clearly I am mafia and he should advocate for my lynch.
But we already know that several people consider me to be pro-town despite my complete lack of intelligible contributions. Going after me may be risky, especially because it draws attention to yourself. Now what would a townie think?
a) who cares if I die, I have no role anyways, might as well go after Caller b/c he might be mafia godfather or smth!!!!oneoneone or b) this is too risky, if I die I might give too much information away, better to play it safe
This actually does make a bit of sense from a players' psychology perspective. However, I am not sure which "several people" consider Caller to be pro-town, if anybody? From my point of view he is neutral, perhaps a lighter shade of pink. Ignoring this, he is right that we would EXPECT to see the good townie play as he would in option (A). But this is also an oversimplification: just because someone disagrees with you does not mean they actually ARE anti town. Townies get into disagreements EVERY GAME, and this doesn't mean that one of the townies is either stuid or anti-town, which are the only 2 options Caller mentions. It's entirely possible for two town members to vehemently oppose each other, but Caller neglects to mention this.
Now Caller constantly self-professes his ineptitude at this game, but I know this isn't true and that he's smarter than he's making himself out to be here. Why he is doing this, I can't be sure yet, but maybe someone else has ideas? Moving on:
Remember what I said about how town and mafia play? Most inexperienced mafia tend to play it safe when they can. For instance, notice how Ace (before he went trollcore) was willing to put (well, not himself) but a lot of effort and also draw attention to himself (by the way he still hasn't analyzed my posts, can I pay money for that?) when he accused me. I defended myself, but anyone can see that I instinctively concluded that because he disagreed with me, and I'm pro-town, and he's an intelligent player, that therefore he must be anti-town. Everybody does this when faced with an accusation that's flimsy. Everybody. Even the most experienced players tend to get pissed off when this is the case.
Again, the oversimplification that everyone who disagrees with you is anti-town. This isn't concrete and you know it man, stop saying it like it is.
Yet what does RaGe do? He calmly dismantles my argument and then proceeds to pretend like I've done nothing wrong, aside from going against everything he thinks is pro-town (promoting unity or whatever horsehydro-evacuatedremainder he mentions of being pro-town. He himself has mentioned how he hasn't played in a while, so he's probably not pulling something sneaky here. And yet he proceeds to assume that I'm town, because he doesn't go after me at all and is like "you have a few reasonable points, etc." Why would anybody in their right mind do this? Look what even Jugen did when I accused him. He proceeded to burst a blood vessel in his criticism of me, even though it was pretty inarticulate and didn't really do anything to my credibility. Yet RaGe just kind of pretends it doesn't happen without any sort of retaliation. Unless you're the gosuest townie in the world, I think it's pretty easy to conclude what RaGe's true affiliation is.
Please, regardless of who dies tonight, check this man out.
But you said you had built your argument specifically to be dismantled in the first place? Why would anyone get angry or defensive when confronted with a deliberately fragile argument? Maybe Rage felt confident seeing that he could deflect it easily, and saw no need to get riled up?
You are right that mafia *when backed into a corner* will do pretty much everything he possibly can to avoid the lynch, including getting pissed, but Rage was never backed into a corner here and you admitted that by design of your argument.
I was initially suspicious of Rage as well, for somewhat similar reasons (hence my vote) but your continuing reasoning, which is only based on how you would expect an average player to react in a hypothetical situation, seems to be getting strained to me. What bothers me as well is that Rage hasn't even bothered to defend himself from your posting, and here I am doing it just because nobody else has really responded to your post.
So summary? I think your reasoning, while similar to mine, ends in an opposite conclusion. I also think you have to stop saying that if you are pro-town aligned, that everyone who disagrees with you is anti-town, since townies often have will and do disagree with each other - and we want to avoid killing ourselves, obviously.
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