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On January 28 2010 07:55 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I didn't think about it...But what about shockeyy?
He has a little bracelet thing on his hand in his profile...the next part is kind of a stretch, but extremely cold water can bring on shock...and his profile, the picture he is wearing has team LIQUID on it....
actually...I feel this is good....And he voted to lynch xelin, along with me, BUT I PUBLICLY stated my reasons for disliking Xelin, I didn't apologize for his death, AND I said I'm down with shockeyy, just for lynching xelin, but I disagreed with the reasoning shockeyy had....
So....
I say we lynch shockeyy....
Yes because a bracelet takes up my whole hand and I can't represent team liquid?!
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On January 28 2010 08:58 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2010 08:48 flamewheel91 wrote:On January 27 2010 17:46 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Tree.hugger, we can add RoyW for the 2 if you want...two caps...., but might as well put me up for that too...
And I'm almost willing to throw you to the gallows myself because the drawing clue...
No offense, I like you by far the most of all the canidates, but this is mafia, not a popularity contests. Basically what I'm saying is, I wouldn't hesitate to vote to lynch you if it came down to it.
And to the rest of you reading this exchance, NO I am not hopping on Xelin's bandwagon. I think he is retarded and mafia...or just retarded. My reasons for suspecting tree.hugger are my own, and have came through the shared knowledge of his actions, and his own clue interpretation. I am not sure how strong my suspicions are, so they must not be that amazing...But as long as Xelin's dead, I wouldn't hesitate to try and off you tree.hugger...
And funny how the flame wheel dude tells me my flaming is mean...
I'm sorry buddy, it's just this is mafia...I can get away with calling a retard a retard here...Is there a problem BC?
Oh yes, ironic isn't it. Allow me to quote the rules: Posting Etiquette: In the past, many players have complained or quit because of the excessive bm and pointless flaming. If you are posting agressively and know you couldn't get away with it anywhere else on this site, it probably isn't ok here. Besides, contrary to what you may think, yelling at someone is a great way to convince people to disagree with your arguments. Please do not post inappropriately, or it will earn you a warning based on mod discretion. If you choose to ignore the warning, you will be modkilled. Examples of inappropriate posts include excessive cursing and vulgarity, among other things.Bolding done by me. Like flamewheel says, there is an effort to clean up the mafia forum because the flaming got a lot worse after you stopped playing. It started pissing people off to the point where they decided to quit. So now we try to keep the games a little more civil. (And BC is fully on board with this.)
Okay...Sorry...Was just deciding to be a little argumentative to have a little more fun. And I still think Xelin's statements were a little....lacking....
If I receive a warning I will be more than happy to stop any flaming, and I intend to cut it out a little...
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On January 28 2010 09:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2010 07:55 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I didn't think about it...But what about shockeyy?
He has a little bracelet thing on his hand in his profile...the next part is kind of a stretch, but extremely cold water can bring on shock...and his profile, the picture he is wearing has team LIQUID on it....
actually...I feel this is good....And he voted to lynch xelin, along with me, BUT I PUBLICLY stated my reasons for disliking Xelin, I didn't apologize for his death, AND I said I'm down with shockeyy, just for lynching xelin, but I disagreed with the reasoning shockeyy had....
So....
I say we lynch shockeyy.... Yes because a bracelet takes up my whole hand and I can't represent team liquid?!
...That's not the point...The clues are to usually rather vague.... And those are rather vague....except they seem to fit...
Horses are branded too...
Representing team liquid has NO bearing on whether or not you are mafia, it's merely something that can connect you to it.
No, but the burger takes up your whole hand....The bracelet can be considered a brand....and I'm sorry, but connecting it to JadeFist just seems a little to obvious....sure, we can kill him, but tell me that seems like a clue that would be used to describe him...
It works better for you.
Liquid and something on your hand...
If you want to help, stop defending yourself and find better connections.
Please defend yourself better.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On January 28 2010 09:05 d3_crescentia wrote:The first mafia seems to be the same mafia from day 1, with a similar location of where the murder occurred - that is, near the water. However, we have a second clue here in the form of the branded hand, which could mean any number of things... though putting it into Google yields a poem. The poem honors a seaman who was convicted and branded on his right hand for helping slaves. There are some lines in the poem that refer to a 'Saviour'. Curiously, gaizka is a Basque name which means precisely that.
Love that reasoning, but let's not lynch people who are up for modkills.
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On January 28 2010 10:39 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2010 09:05 d3_crescentia wrote:The first mafia seems to be the same mafia from day 1, with a similar location of where the murder occurred - that is, near the water. However, we have a second clue here in the form of the branded hand, which could mean any number of things... though putting it into Google yields a poem. The poem honors a seaman who was convicted and branded on his right hand for helping slaves. There are some lines in the poem that refer to a 'Saviour'. Curiously, gaizka is a Basque name which means precisely that. Love that reasoning, but let's not lynch people who are up for modkills.
Good to know...Now someone other than me tell me if it's a stretch to connect the water with Shockeyy....
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
Dude I hope you guys have a good lynch! We got our first two today oh yeahhhhh.
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...Okay...well it seems my request is futile...You could even be argued that you are leering in your profile picture too Shockeyy....
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I'm not going to argue with you anymore because I know I'm not mafia.
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So I went through all of the clues and thought through most of the things that happened. I now think I have a solid guess as to who the reds are:
Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler +
The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players.
Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details.
Now on to my prime suspects for lynching.
Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first.
QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler +First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.”
First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint.
Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch.
Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up.
PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially.
Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker
Jonoman92+ Show Spoiler + Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations.
This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations.
I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well.
Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above.
Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler +The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference.
Shockeyy+ Show Spoiler +I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to.
Closing conclusions:
+ Show Spoiler +- Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him.
- This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious.
- Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two
Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters.
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On January 28 2010 12:14 dozko wrote:So I went through all of the clues and thought through most of the things that happened. I now think I have a solid guess as to who the reds are: Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler +The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players. Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details. Now on to my prime suspects for lynching. Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first. QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler +First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.”
First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint.
Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch.
Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up.
PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially.
Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations.
This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations.
I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well. Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above. Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler +The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference. I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to. Closing conclusions: + Show Spoiler +- Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him.
- This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious.
- Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters.
You did analysis on me? Where?
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On January 28 2010 12:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote:My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant. 1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine.
- "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character
- Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings + Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence. Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia. Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO.
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On January 28 2010 12:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
...Okay...well it seems my request is futile...You could even be argued that you are leering in your profile picture too Shockeyy....
Like I really wish I can do something, as in find clues, but if you look at some of my post. I write from my phone. So it sometimes gets very hard to do anything. When I get home later tonight, I will try and find some clues.
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I like to point out that no_re and RoyW have been putting in the same votes, since the beginning of the game. Both have stayed relatively quiet. no_re made a good clue analysis post in the first day which appears to have won him immunity against our consideration - mission accomplished he has not really made the same type of posts anymore.
I think it is highly likely that if one of them is mafia then the other is as well. In fact I dont get why they have been trying to vote off quickstriker since the first lynch. This is strange since I dont think there are any clues incriminating these guys, but their posting and voting patterns especially make me very suspicious.
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On January 29 2010 01:39 dozko wrote:
I like to point out that no_re and RoyW have been putting in the same votes, since the beginning of the game. Both have stayed relatively quiet. no_re made a good clue analysis post in the first day which appears to have won him immunity against our consideration - mission accomplished he has not really made the same type of posts anymore.
I think it is highly likely that if one of them is mafia then the other is as well. In fact I dont get why they have been trying to vote off quickstriker since the first lynch. This is strange since I dont think there are any clues incriminating these guys, but their posting and voting patterns especially make me very suspicious.
I think it's time for me to bring up an accusation. WARNING: INCOMING WALL OF TEXT
First of all, I'd like to say that I appreciate everyone's contribution so far. The more people that participate the better chance we have of finding mafia.
Secondly, I'd like to say that I am an extremely non-aggressive person. I don't pick fights when I don't have to, and I'd like to believe that everyone speaking right now is not mafia. However, something has come to my attention that I feel warrants further investigation. I'm putting my credibility at risk here, and if it turns out I'm wrong I would understand if people became wary of me instead.
My suspicions:
There are no clues that currently point to no_re, but I find it odd that two of the three in his trust circle, Iaaan and XeliN died last night. Why is this so strange to me? Because I have knowledge that Iaaan roleclaimed DT to XeliN last night, and both Iaaan, XeliN and no_re have confirmed that XeliN had been sharing his information with no_re for some time.
Why does this bother me so much? Because it is possible to conclude that no_re is mafia, in that upon finding out this information he had a discussion with his fellow mafia and decided that the possible payoff for a hit on Iaaan was too good to pass up. But why XeliN as well? Because of the information that Iaaan passed on.
The information is that Iaaan claimed that he: 1)cluechecked the phrase about the broken flower vase and 2) that it did not point to me.
Assuming that Iaaan was right in guessing that I am a townie, the mafia would have moved to kill Iaaan and XeliN based on the chance that Iaaan was correct. It would have been a large risk to leave XeliN alive and have his suspicions turn back on no_re once it turned out Iaaan was green, the only other person that he's been talking to.
The possibility that Iaaan was NOT blue would be inconsequential in this case, because as far they knew, the only people in the trust circle were XeliN, Iaaan, and no_re. The death of Iaaan and XeliN wouldn't necessarily draw attention to no_re, and everyone else would have continued to pore over clues.
However, I knew that Iaaan was making this gambit to XeliN.
And because not just one, but BOTH of them died, I am highly suspicious of no_re, and will be using one of my two votes on him.
I have identified a few potential problems in my line of thought:
1) This could all be coincidence, and it turns out that no_re is innocent. This is what I am most fearful for, because it leaves us in no better of a position than before, though it is no worse than we have been doing previously. I hope that no_re can forgive me for such a forceful accusation if this is the case.
2) It is possible that I could be mafia, and I spoke with the rest of the mafia to arrange the hits. There is, after all, no proof and no way to check that my role is town-aligned.
I would then ask you why it would be a rational idea for me to accuse no_re and claim I had this hidden knowledge, whereas keeping silent would have been most beneficial. If after all of this he turns out to be innocent, then suspicion will surely turn back upon me for such a vehement accusation. It would be more beneficial to the mafia to remain silent of any knowledge and continue making hits as opposed to a grand public accusation which, if wrong, would draw suspicion towards them.
If it comes down to it, I would be willing to die to prove that I am not red. But, I want to win, and as such I want the town to win, and would hope to remain alive for as long as possible so that I can use my powers of Sheriff to prevent and/or deter mafia kills in the late game.
I have enclosed two of my PMs with Iaaan below.
So, Xelin thinks I'm the detective. I'm thinking of telling him that I am indeed the detective (even thought I'm not), and seeing if I die tonight, so I'm PMing you for two things, do you think I should lie, and if I do, I need to send someone my PM's for evidence if I do die. If I don't die, no big deal, then I can tell him the truth the next day, or I could keep lying are tell him who to vote for ;p
What do you think?
-Iaaan
So I messaged him. I sent you all my PMs to him, Read from bottom up. I have also PM'ed tree.hugger, Quickstriker, no_re, and Johnnyspazz if you want to see those ones o:
And keep in mind, I've been telling everyone different stories thought PM's, cause I generally PM them to see what their reactions to things are. Your the only one I'm telling the truth to, if your a mafia then your probably screwing me, and alot of other people over. lol
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Original Message:
I lied to you before, I am the detective. I wasn't sure if I could trust you, it was better to be careful, but reading over the thread. I used a clue check yesterday, on "broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery" because it seemed like it could point to our sheriff, and I wanted to make sure I could trust him, and I couldn't role check him so...
But for tonight, I'm thinking since I'll probably die in the next 2 or 3 days, I'm going to use a rolecheck. Everyone is suspicious of Quickstriker, so I'm thinking of using it on him; its helpful either way if it comes up red or green. But then he could still be the godfather... Other than that, I'm not sure tho. Maybe iLoveKT or RoyW or Jonoman92.... But, who do you think I should check? and whats your role, just a townie? I thought that was probably your role, cause you wouldn't really want to risk a blue role calling on people to lynch you for information ;p
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Original Message:
I'm not the detective ;p
I'm hoping tree.hugger or cresentia is, since they have protection, otherwise idk.
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Original Message:
Are you the detective? This is the only hypothetical that is making much sense to me, if so you may have rolechecked Softer and it came back Red, hence you voting for him without, as far as I could tell, much evidence.
Softer "Changed colour" so that suggests he was a Miller, and so possibly you or also potentially Cresentia may be a DT.
You being the DT makes alot of sense to me though as another hypothetical is you have rolechecked Quickstriker and it came back Green.
In the above scenario then I would believe Quickstriker to be the Godfather, chosen by the Mafia at an early stage in order to protect him from rolechecks as he was one of the first people accused of being Mafia.
I really do hope some or all of this is true. Although it is mainly a guess so hopefully you can clarify.
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Original Message:
-Iaaan
Hi!, you are right I am very suspicious wait scrap that close to certain (i shudnt say this as from a philosophical viewpoint im not even certain of things like "do we exist" but meh) that he is mafia. A post he made earlier did make me think however that his role is either likely to be the Godfather or innocent. He basically invited the DT to check him now unless he was banking on the fact the DT would ignore that and wouldn't actually do it, he would either be the Godfather or innocent.
Statisically it is far more likely he is innocent if i follow this train of though, I however believe he, and some other of the more active posters, are Mafia and you are right if elected my first move would be to kill him.
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Original Message:
So right to it, Quickstriker is suspicious. I was thinking about talking about lynching him, or killing him if I got mayor, but then I thought, because he is the most suspicious, The DT's will probably role check him first.
Your posts make it sound like you want to kill him, or your at least keeping an eye on him, but I think on the first day it would be more beneficial to kill someone else, instead of someone the DT's will probably check.
so yeah, just my thoughts about Quickstriker so far. Thought I would share o:
I would say something nice about you now, like how insightful your posts are, but obviously you would have to think that it is superficial, I could easily be a Mafia, or be trying to manipulate you for whatever other reason. So I'll just write my name instead
There is one more PM which could be brought up in this discussion, in which I sent to no_re earlier yesterday about if there was another person in his trust group. Unfortunately, this is due to my misreading of his "2 out of 3" post earlier, where I thought he had been talking to 3 people, not two. That is included in the following spoiler (read from bottom to top): + Show Spoiler +oh nevermind I misinterpreted your post
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Original Message:
the only people I have talked to in PM are Iaaan and XeliN...
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Original Message:
who was the last person you talked to - and what did you tell them?
I believe this is enough context to put no_re into suspicion. I hope you read this and come to your own conclusions about it. I encourage everyone to reread no_re's clue analysis posts, because I am now seriously considering the possibility that they are deliberately designed to mislead us.
I will be voting no_re as one out of two to be lynched.
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Interesting post, thanks for sharing that info on the PMs. I'll also encourage people to look at the vote tally as it stands currently and see that the due no_re and royw are joined by sidesprang and jonoman92.
Although I made that massive clue analysis on why QS might be mafia, the voting patterns coupled with the stuff that d3 just put up is really making my spider senses tingle...
These four people have generally been extremely low key and have watched from the sidelines most of the times, yet are the first to jump on the QS bandwagon. Since I am more used to playing post analysis mafia games only (i.e. no clues in narration) my gut is telling me that these are suspicious. Further I dont think my QS theory is watertight at all since if I place him on both kills in day 3 and it looks like there are other double murderers. Couple this with the fact that the guy is not around to defend himself due to his NSL.
Although there are about 24 hours left, I will change my first vote from Quickstriker to no_re right now to see what their responses will be. I am really anxious to hear what our mayor has to say and where his three votes will go.
The people I consider to be mafia as of this point - jonoman92, no_re, royw, sidesprang, fulgrim and perhaps the others are from the inactives.
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Sry in the second line above it should be duo, instead of due.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2010 12:14 dozko wrote:So I went through all of the clues and thought through most of the things that happened. I now think I have a solid guess as to who the reds are: Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler +The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players. Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details. Now on to my prime suspects for lynching. Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first. QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler +First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.”
First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint.
Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch.
Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up.
PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially.
Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations.
This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations.
I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well. Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above. Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler +The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference. I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to. Closing conclusions: + Show Spoiler +- Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him.
- This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious.
- Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters.
For those of you who don't know Fulgrim from 40k: http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Fulgrim
I agree that Fulgrim does have a sword, I think that that clue would fit Velkanknight better then me, as for the hand clue, its a bit far fetched, if Fulgrim had some sort of tatoo or something it might be a better match.
Personally I think that no_re is our biggest lead currently, and I think our clues about IloveKT and jadefist are pretty strong at the moment. I will probably be voting for one of them as well as no_re
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On January 28 2010 12:44 dozko wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote:My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant. 1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine.
- "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character
- Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings + Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence. Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia. Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO.
dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that.
With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate.
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On January 29 2010 08:04 Jonoman92 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2010 12:44 dozko wrote:On January 28 2010 12:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
... + Show Spoiler +On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote:My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant. 1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine.
- "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character
- Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing" 2) iplaythings + Show Spoiler + - The murdered were playing a "late night game" 3) drinking + Show Spoiler + - Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night. 4) softer + Show Spoiler + - In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong." 5) no_re + Show Spoiler + - They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame. 6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact. Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence. Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia. Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO. dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that. With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate.
I believe that we should trust clues more then anything else though, because Its the one thing to be sure about. A mafia member can easily say anything in posts to throw off suspicion, but the clues will always condemn someone (although so far for us it hasn't been the right person). After we get the first mafia it should be alot easier to get the rest by looking at posts by the person and voting record.
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so you think im mafia cause i voted for quickstriker, and his sidekick shokeyy? or did you have some other reasons i did not see?
i have wanted to lynch quickstriker since the first day. so i definatly did not jump on any bandwagon 
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EPT![[image loading]](http://img99.imageshack.us/i/suspects.jpg/)
