BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI - Page 36

rANDY

United Kingdom748 Posts

January 28 2010 23:43 GMT

#701

you sure wrote a lot of text without much real content, crescentia.

Here is a copy of the PMs between myself and Iaaan in which you will see my reasons for my votes

The reason I picked the two out of my 4 main suspects, is because they were receiving the largest amount of votes, and therefore I would not feel like I was wasting mine on people that would not get lynched.

Read from the bottom up, First PM is Iaaan's

+ Show Spoiler +

Honestly, I thought softer was a decent guess, not the best, but not too bad either; I don't know how much suspicion to put on people for that. But I agree anyway, I'm suspicious of tree simply because he is the mayor, quickstriker just because ;p, shockeyy I agree hes a dumbass either way, just coming in and accusing people for no reason, Dozko I don't have an opinion on yet.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
hey hows it going?

My thoughts atm for most likely mafia members are

QuickStriker, still

ShoCkey guy, he is either a terrible mafia or a terrible townie. So either a mafia or someone useless to the town anyway

Dozko his vague posting style spreading a lot of disinformation makes him a prime candidate in my eyes, plus he voted for softer.

Tree.Hugger his voting patterns seem quite suspect to me especially his vote for softer late yesterday.

I have a small circle of trust currently with XeliN thought I probably have given that away anyway in my thread posting.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Yeah, but of course he could just be excited to be playing Mafia, which I kind of am myself ;p There isn't very much to go on yet, but we will have to pay attention to further clues, and what potential DT's say about him, especially on day 2, because if I were a DT, so far he seems like the best choice for a role check.

Also, I decided to run for Mayor/Sheriff. I wasn't sure if I could do a good job at first, but I think its very important that a Mafia doesn't become sheriff, or especially mayor, and I right now the only person I know isn't Mafia is me (which i would probably say if I were Mafia, but still, the only thing a townie can be 100% sure of right now is their own role), so I figured rather than just abstaining and giving the Mafia a greater voting power (because 6 votes for them is a fair bit), I would run myself and hopefully weaken their chances, since only 4 people have stepped up so far, and at least one of them is probably a Mafia, its pretty likely they would get in.

But yeah, vote for me if you think you should, but either way I'll probably keep Pming you occasionally, Its good to talk to either a smart townie, or even if you are a Mafia (which is a 19.5%(?) possibility for everyone!), still good to see what you say. I guess you could think the same thing, if I am a Mafia, good to keep an eye on me ;p Not that I'm a mafia... but still! 19.5% chance and not much info to go on!

anyway o:

-Iaaan
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I agree with a lot of what you say, I am very suspicious of Quickstriker, something in his posting style makes me feel he is trying very hard to look like we need to keep him around.

sorry for my slow response, I wrote my analysis just before I went to bed =]

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Very nice analysis of the first killings (;

What do you think of quicksilver? He definitely could be a Mafia, with that little clue about a quick attack (although that's obviously not 100% certain), but I think that he could be trying to set himself up to be elected, with all his warnings. It makes him look experienced, which is important if he wants a position of power, especially since most people here are new at this.

So yeah, I think that if he puts himself up to be elected, hes going to look pretty good, which obviously would be what he wants if hes a mafia.

But, what do you think about him so far? O:

Im still not sure what you are accusing me of crescentia, to quote your post you say

"Why does this bother me so much? Because it is possible to conclude that no_re is mafia,"

So from all your typing it is possible I am mafia - I question how this is different from anyone else?

Bring forward some real substance to your next wall of text or I feel it may look like you are trying too hard to convince people of what isn't there.

d3_crescentia

United States4054 Posts

January 28 2010 23:44 GMT

#702

On January 29 2010 08:04 Jonoman92 wrote:

Show nested quote +

On January 28 2010 12:44 dozko wrote:

On January 28 2010 12:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
...

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 24 2010 09:57 dozko wrote:
My analysis of the day 2 clues. The bold ones are the ones I think are the most significant.

1) Quickstriker + Show Spoiler +

- The figure may refer to the chess piece in the picture of his profile, as in a chess figurine.

- "Object in his hands" although the piece is not "long", it is being held in the hands of the character

- Note how the guy in his picture is slightly tilted to one side and it could be said he is "looking over his shoulder". Also those large expressive , jap art eyes can easily be linked to the "gaze", "eyes gazing"

2) iplaythings+ Show Spoiler +

- The murdered were playing a "late night game"

3) drinking + Show Spoiler +

- Note he joined TL on the 31 of December. I would classify this as a pretty memorable night.

4) softer + Show Spoiler +

- In his profile quote: "Visualize success, but dont believe your eyes. I think this matches up really well with the quote from the narration "They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong."

5) no_re + Show Spoiler +

- They played a bowling game, but it was their last one since they got pwnt by the killers and therefore will never be able to regame.

6) shockeyy + Show Spoiler +

- Look at his profile pic. He's got the red eye effect in the photo, which makes his eyes look very expressive due to the black background. I believe this could be a reference to the "hypnotized" gaze in the narration, as his eyes look very menacing and hypnosis is usually done with a strong eye contact.

Out of the bolded ones I believe the clue towards drinking is the most believable, since it is not very obvious but it still is not too far fetched. However the clue towards softer is very strong since we have a match of a whole sentence.

Given that both these have had clue references in day 1 (i.e. the water for drinking and "tenderly" for softer) i currently believe that these two are the most likely to be mafia.

Therefore I will vote for softer to be lynched for now, unless i hear some convincing arguments in his defense, since he has not replied in his defense to my day1 post stating the "tenderness" clue and he generally is keeping a low profile, but people should keep an eye on drinking as well since his clue is very persuasive IMO.

dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that.

With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate.

Like the voting thread stated... the inactives we have right are being PM'd with regards to their inactivity, and will be removed by the end of this Day unless they start doing stuff. You can sort of verify this if you start running into people posting on other sections of the forum but not saying anything. I've noticed Iplaythings and Nigol at some point while this thread has been up, but for the most part the people on the above list haven't said very much so far.

~OpZ~

United States3652 Posts

January 29 2010 00:02 GMT

#703

On January 29 2010 07:47 Fulgrim wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 28 2010 12:14 dozko wrote:
So I went through all of the clues and thought through most of the things that happened. I now think I have a solid guess as to who the reds are:

Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler +

The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players.

Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details.

Now on to my prime suspects for lynching.

Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first.

QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler +

First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.”

First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint.

Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch.

Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up.

PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially.

Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker

Jonoman92+ Show Spoiler +

Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations.

This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations.

I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well.

Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above.

Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler +

The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference.

Shockeyy+ Show Spoiler +

I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to.

Closing conclusions:

+ Show Spoiler +

- Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him.

- This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious.

- Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two

Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters.

For those of you who don't know Fulgrim from 40k: http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Fulgrim

I agree that Fulgrim does have a sword, I think that that clue would fit Velkanknight better then me, as for the hand clue, its a bit far fetched, if Fulgrim had some sort of tatoo or something it might be a better match.

Personally I think that no_re is our biggest lead currently, and I think our clues about IloveKT and jadefist are pretty strong at the moment. I will probably be voting for one of them as well as no_re

Again....Lemme emphasize this...Just because YOU know where your name and stuff comes from, doesn't necessarily mean BC knows it...But I don't necessarily mean that at you, I mean it more so for everyone's general knowledge...

d3_crescentia

United States4054 Posts

January 29 2010 00:22 GMT

#704

On January 29 2010 08:43 no_re wrote:
you sure wrote a lot of text without much real content, crescentia.

Here is a copy of the PMs between myself and Iaaan in which you will see my reasons for my votes

The reason I picked the two out of my 4 main suspects, is because they were receiving the largest amount of votes, and therefore I would not feel like I was wasting mine on people that would not get lynched.

Read from the bottom up, First PM is Iaaan's

+ Show Spoiler +

Why so dismissive? This has very little to do with your voting record, so I'm not sure why you brought it up. I've mentioned the possible holes in my argument, and you haven't responded to them.

I am accusing you of being mafia because Xelin may have shared with you that Ian had claimed that he was DT, and claimed to have used a clue check on me to show that I had nothing to do with the murders. Because the mafia has certain knowledge of who is town and who is mafia AND KNEW what had transgressed between Xelin and Iaaan, they would have been faced with the possible threat of a DT and would look to kill him.

My conjecture is that the link between Xelin/Iaaan's conversation and the possible cause for their deaths is that you are mafia, as you were in communication with both of these people. The possible counterarguments I have thought of are that 1) it was a coincidence that both of them died no matter what information you and XeliN traded, and 2) because I'm mafia trying to throw people off. I know it's difficult to make a case for the first point. You can make a case for the second, or that there is some other scenario that I haven't thought of.

Above all else, I want you to tell me why I'm wrong. It may be that I'm trying too hard to see things, but I'd rather try and be proven wrong and apologize for that. I am sorry if my tone was too harsh and I apologize if you were offended. It was difficult for me to say something as well, because I like to avoid conflict whenever I can, and the thought that I might be wrong and we would lose another active townie is pretty crushing to consider. If I do turn out to be a fool, I hope you can forgive me.

~OpZ~

United States3652 Posts

January 29 2010 00:35 GMT

#705

On January 29 2010 06:54 dozko wrote:
Interesting post, thanks for sharing that info on the PMs. I'll also encourage people to look at the vote tally as it stands currently and see that the due no_re and royw are joined by sidesprang and jonoman92.

Although I made that massive clue analysis on why QS might be mafia, the voting patterns coupled with the stuff that d3 just put up is really making my spider senses tingle...

These four people have generally been extremely low key and have watched from the sidelines most of the times, yet are the first to jump on the QS bandwagon. Since I am more used to playing post analysis mafia games only (i.e. no clues in narration) my gut is telling me that these are suspicious. Further I dont think my QS theory is watertight at all since if I place him on both kills in day 3 and it looks like there are other double murderers. Couple this with the fact that the guy is not around to defend himself due to his NSL.

Although there are about 24 hours left, I will change my first vote from Quickstriker to no_re right now to see what their responses will be. I am really anxious to hear what our mayor has to say and where his three votes will go.

The people I consider to be mafia as of this point - jonoman92, no_re, royw, sidesprang, fulgrim and perhaps the others are from the inactives.

Definitely two killers with the kitchen and living room, even though both murders occurred in the living room. One killer used a blade, the other a knife. Now you can argue a knife is a blade; but a blade isn't necessarily a knife. And BC was particular in his use of words in that section, because the first killing in the living room he only used the word blade, and in the second killing he only used the word knife. And he used knife rather extensively....We should probably count the number of times just to be safe...

I'd do it, but on my lap top at my grand parents house, and it's bothersome.

And next week I might post less. I'm a full time student, and I have a part time job with probably 30+ hours a week...so...lol...

The watch not changing from 2am from the time he went to the kitchen to the time he died is an important clue, someone find a way to connect it.

d3_crescentia

United States4054 Posts

January 29 2010 00:42 GMT

#706

Fuck me I can be so blind sometimes.

Lelouch vi Britannia from Code Geass (and QS's profile) has the power to hypnotically command people to do whatever he wants them to do. Not only that, there is an episode where he has a ridiculous looking sword (the blade is purple) which he waves around absurdly as he's giving commands to soldiers - definitely in what I would call 'odd formations.'

Maybe BC has seen Code Geass.

I think I may vote for QS with my second vote...

rANDY

United Kingdom748 Posts

January 29 2010 00:45 GMT

#707

I feel that laaan and Xelin were both killed by the mafia since they were getting a lot of things right.

Also in the PM's between Xelin and Iaaan, Iaaan only claimed to be a DT at first, and came clean to Xelin he was just a townie before he was mafia lynched.

d3_crescentia

United States4054 Posts

January 29 2010 00:47 GMT

#708

On January 29 2010 09:45 no_re wrote:
I feel that laaan and Xelin were both killed by the mafia since they were getting a lot of things right.

Also in the PM's between Xelin and Iaaan, Iaaan only claimed to be a DT at first, and came clean to Xelin he was just a townie before he was mafia lynched.

Read PMs from the bottom up due to the dumb reply system TL has. He claimed not to be DT, then he did.

rANDY

United Kingdom748 Posts

January 29 2010 00:50 GMT

#709

On January 29 2010 09:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
Fuck me I can be so blind sometimes.

Lelouch vi Britannia from Code Geass (and QS's profile) has the power to hypnotically command people to do whatever he wants them to do. Not only that, there is an episode where he has a ridiculous looking sword (the blade is purple) which he waves around absurdly as he's giving commands to soldiers - definitely in what I would call 'odd formations.'

Maybe BC has seen Code Geass.

I think I may vote for QS with my second vote...

You can't seriously vote for me AND quickstriker? I am pretty much camped atop the lynch quickstriker pile

flamewheel

FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts

January 29 2010 00:52 GMT

#710

I'm glad to see some activity in this thread! (Even though by that I mean one page since I last viewed it last night)

Get those mafia members!

Fulgrim

United States560 Posts

January 29 2010 00:54 GMT

#711

So does that mean that you KNEW that Iaaan wasn't DT before he was killed?

d3_crescentia

United States4054 Posts

January 29 2010 00:55 GMT

#712

On January 29 2010 09:50 no_re wrote:

Show nested quote +

You can't seriously vote for me AND quickstriker? I am pretty much camped atop the lynch quickstriker pile

Dunno for sure; it's something I'm keeping in mind. My money's still on someone like Jonoman92 or RoyW atm. Though, I've been itching to see what color he turns out to be, because I've reviewed his earlier posts and found some good ideas and some bad ideas.

rANDY

United Kingdom748 Posts

January 29 2010 00:56 GMT

#713

On January 29 2010 09:47 d3_crescentia wrote:

Show nested quote +

Read PMs from the bottom up due to the dumb reply system TL has. He claimed not to be DT, then he did.

That is not what I saw in the PMs sent to me by XeliN.

I see the logic in your accusation of me, but this being my first "link" to being mafia and also not being linked to any clues so far, I feel voting for me to be rash.

I greatly hope QS/Shockey turn out to be mafia if they get lynched, which it looks like it will given current standings - then I will feel maybe I can be trusted by you again

rANDY

United Kingdom748 Posts

January 29 2010 01:02 GMT

#714

On January 29 2010 09:55 d3_crescentia wrote:
Dunno for sure; it's something I'm keeping in mind. My money's still on someone like Jonoman92 or RoyW atm. Though, I've been itching to see what color he turns out to be, because I've reviewed his earlier posts and found some good ideas and some bad ideas.

On January 26 2010 07:53 XeliN wrote:
The next obvious target, although they could choose from many, for the Mafia to try to get lynched would be Royw, look out for this, some of them have already tried to associate "clues" with him if you are a Townie I urge you not to vote for him.

Xelin was good at this game...

510Sushi

Azerbaijan331 Posts

January 29 2010 01:07 GMT

#715

hello other mafia game, wish you all the best of luck

d3_crescentia

United States4054 Posts

January 29 2010 01:10 GMT

#716

On January 29 2010 10:02 no_re wrote:

Show nested quote +

Xelin was good at this game...

Or that he just got defensive when Shockeyy criticized him and viewed everything he said as a possible mafia threat. IIRC Shockeyy was the first to criticize RoyW for supporting Xelin - which seemed within a reasonable range of behaviors.

I know Shockeyy is posting from his phone, but with that said it seems to me that there wasn't any reason why Shockeyy was so firm in his conviction that Xelin was mafia. I might decide to vote him too. There are just so many suspicious candidates around here; I feel like a girl in a shopping mall trying on clothes.

rANDY

United Kingdom748 Posts

January 29 2010 01:22 GMT

#717

Anyway if I get lynched here is my list of mafia

Most likely:

ShoCkey
Quickstriker
Jonnyspazz
Tree.Hugger

Possibly:

d3_crescentia
Dozko

and the 7th who I believe if he is possibly mafia, and if he is has played it very well:

Fulgrim

So by the time im dead it will probably be too late anyway since they got the two places of power and such a good start. Also kinda posting this for posterity so i can be like "booya, nothing but net" come the end of the game

ps. godfather - quickstriker

Fulgrim

United States560 Posts

January 29 2010 01:27 GMT

#718

On January 29 2010 10:22 no_re wrote:

Anyway if I get lynched here is my list of mafia

Most likely:

ShoCkey
Quickstriker
Jonnyspazz
Tree.Hugger

Possibly:

d3_crescentia
Dozko

and the 7th who I believe if he is possibly mafia, and if he is has played it very well:

Fulgrim

So by the time im dead it will probably be too late anyway since they got the two places of power and such a good start. Also kinda posting this for posterity so i can be like "booya, nothing but net" come the end of the game

ps. godfather - quickstriker

no_re this is pretty important to tell whether you are innocent or not. Did you know that Iaaan wasn't DT before he was killed????