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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
On July 31 2009 07:04 Falcynn wrote: At this point we know at least that there are only two decent options. Disguise as Veterans, or disguise as rebels. The fact that there are two options creates a third option for NKVD, just fyi. | ||
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Falcynn
United States3597 Posts
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians). Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own. But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment. | ||
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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
On July 31 2009 07:14 Falcynn wrote: Wait...what? Are we speaking individually or as a whole? Individually, I don't see any other decent option between those two. If you mean as a group...then yeah, they could mix between those two, which is the point I was making. Individually, if you can't see it; then it doesn't really matter, though. | ||
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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
executions will occur then as well | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On July 31 2009 08:45 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I'm confused as to why Foolishness and MountainDew were killed? they're not dead they're being tried in front of a people's court | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On July 31 2009 07:12 Elemenope wrote: The fact that there are two options creates a third option for NKVD, just fyi. What, stay as NKVD? that would be kinda dumb don't you think? | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote: I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle. Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians). Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own. But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment. Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case. If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such. Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use. So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit). And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge. I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.- | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
by the way L. I hope you're keeping a real good eye on that list of people voting for you and LucasWoj Look at your list too. There's very little information we can gain from this vote, especially since mafia can't vote in blocs. If you're mafia, no one knows it. If I'm mafia, no one knows it. Its 100% based on our arguments and a battle of 2 cults of personality. And Vivi, if you're like a medic or some shit and you're pretty much ASSURED to die this lynch, its pretty fucking obvious you need to roleclaim. Since you didn't, the fact that you're a terrible player is pretty much confirmed. Well played, blockhead. Wait...so how about this, we just tell the NKVD to choose what they feel is best between rebels and vets and move on from this topic. NKVD are going to do whatever they want regardless; town consensus only serves to explain how we deal with the roleclaims that come from the RC information. I'd prefer consensus fall farther towards rebel claims because of the effect on ring formation, but that's me. | ||
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On July 31 2009 08:58 Shikyo wrote: So, who are we planning on lynching at this moment? I didn't get if Ace was serious about Vivi57 or not. Who might other possible lynches be? Also, what shall the town's attitude be towards inactivity? Will the inactives be lynched, or is the town planning on rather concentrating on clue analysis and behavioral analysis to catch the Ukrainians? I'm guessing that we'll be wandering around pretty aimlessly until the next morning... not much to work with until then. I don't think anyone can tell any ukranians atm, so the chosen Field Marshal will just lynch someone randomly or someone he dislikes I guess. Which means Ace probably was serious about Vivi57 ^^; I don't see the point to lynching inactives. I guess if there's no one else we might as well, but strong mafia suspects are a much better use of our lynch. We win either by time limit or by killing all the rebels, so killing the bad guys advances both of those goals and should always be our priority. That means we'll need lots of people checking a ton of profiles for clue analysis @_@ Not really sure how to go about doing behavioral analysis, but it's definitely worth trying. | ||
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Vivi57
United States6599 Posts
On July 31 2009 09:39 L wrote: And Vivi, if you're like a medic or some shit and you're pretty much ASSURED to die this lynch, its pretty fucking obvious you need to roleclaim. Since you didn't, the fact that you're a terrible player is pretty much confirmed. Well played, blockhead. Great. I was going to roleclaim as soon as I got home. I'm nkvd. Could have done a shitton more good for the town if you and ace weren't so intent on killing me no matter what. | ||
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On July 31 2009 09:56 Vivi57 wrote: Great. I was going to roleclaim as soon as I got home. I'm nkvd. Could have done a shitton more good for the town if you and ace weren't so intent on killing me no matter what. Hm. Losing an NKVD on the first lynch would... suck. Then again, with this roleclaim, maybe the mafia will kill him on the first night anyway. If he doesn't die on the first lynch, is there any way we can tell whether he's telling it true? | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
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Vivi57
United States6599 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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