[GG] Red Army Mafia - Page 21

Elemenope

Burkina Faso1704 Posts

July 30 2009 20:50 GMT

#401

On July 31 2009 05:47 Ace wrote:

I broke the last one :/ too lazy to get a new one since I'm not on it enough.

still LOL that foolishness got caught cheating. what a scrub.

If you obviously got one, you would be on it more.

Ace

United States16096 Posts

July 30 2009 20:52 GMT

#402

On July 31 2009 05:49 L wrote:
You wanted to vote for that scrub :3.

well you didn't make a platform yet, and it was between him and Lucaswoj. And well Lucas will never ever get a vote from me so yea.

Canada4732 Posts

July 30 2009 21:01 GMT

#403

well you didn't make a platform yet, and it was between him and Lucaswoj. And well Lucas will never ever get a vote from me so yea.

Well, I kinda STILL haven't made a platform.

I'm pretty sure there's really nothing left to say regarding the NKVD, so the new topic du jour should probably be who the candidates think they should off day 1. I was thinking last night that I would threaten to off Ver so that he would talk a bit more, but with no real 'tells' on day 1 (and likely 2) there's NO reason why we should hit a good player.

So that leaves shitty players who don't post, as usual, so I'm going to suggest we off Vivi57 because:

1) He's a shitty player.
2) He's not posting very much.

Even if he IS town, which there's like an 80% chance that he is, I'm pretty sure we'll be better off dropping him than anyone else on the current roster.

These players:

JeeJee
Goodwill
RebirthofLegend
decafchicken
nttea
quickstriker
muqoou

Obviously can't really be picked quite yet because they might be Caller-raped. Good people to look into for future days, though.

Ace

United States16096 Posts

July 30 2009 21:07 GMT

#404

I was already planning to kill Vivi57 because he's a useless sack of shit. No need to touch inactives yet. The only reason I haven't planned on an instant lynch for Lucaswoj is because he's about 1% more useful than Vivi57.

Canada4732 Posts

July 30 2009 21:10 GMT

#405

Well, its pretty much tied between those two, but Lucas hasn't started his ridiculous troll spam this game thusfar, so that puts him AT LEAST 2% more useful than Vivi.

Then again, clues against Lucas are far more difficult to read than clues against Vivi.

Also:

B) Every day will have special pre-determined conditions that will be announced on the day. These conditions are not game breaking but may be neutral or provide a slight advantage to either side.

Discuss what we think is going to come up. As for me, I'm going home soon.

LucasWoJ

United States936 Posts

July 30 2009 21:22 GMT

#406

/sigh.

coltrane

Chile988 Posts

July 30 2009 21:26 GMT

#407

Ok, look... my maths arent wrong. by now i have tryed thousands of simulations (its really easy, i have alredy wrote a town generator in c++) and with this rules killing random, lynching random the right balance is something like 10 mafia, 4 vets, 4 medics, 5 NKVD. Anything different will make some kind of imba game, of course could be on more on one role or in other, but if there are more than 12 mafia we are screwed, if they are less than 7 they are, and so on with any of those numbers.
When i changed the rc on NKVD to vets town wins 53% or so... while putting them on ukranian town wins 59% Now i am at work, i dont have my code here, but at night i can post numbers or the complete c++ code if any wants to check it.

I changed my vote to L, since i dont want Ace to be elected and i think most of you just follow the shiny glow of those who selfclaim them as vets.

Zato-1

Chile4253 Posts

July 30 2009 21:28 GMT

#408

On July 31 2009 06:10 L wrote:
Well, its pretty much tied between those two, but Lucas hasn't started his ridiculous troll spam this game thusfar

Oh... so THAT's what it was. I got a total of 5 PMs from Lucas yesterday, drilling me about my vote for Field Marshal and what I thought that candidate's game plan was and how I didn't understand it ;_;

On July 31 2009 06:10 L wrote:B) Every day will have special pre-determined conditions that will be announced on the day. These conditions are not game breaking but may be neutral or provide a slight advantage to either side.

Discuss what we think is going to come up. As for me, I'm going home soon.

Well, conditions have to be ad hoc to the setting. Maybe there'll be a curfew one night (skip 1 night phase), or heavy snow one day that will make any action taken (including RC, a medic protecting someone, following a clue, etc) leave clues behind.

Ace

United States16096 Posts

July 30 2009 21:34 GMT

#409

On July 31 2009 06:26 coltrane wrote:
Ok, look... my maths arent wrong. by now i have tryed thousands of simulations (its really easy, i have alredy wrote a town generator in c++) and with this rules killing random, lynching random the right balance is something like 10 mafia, 4 vets, 4 medics, 5 NKVD. Anything different will make some kind of imba game, of course could be on more on one role or in other, but if there are more than 12 mafia we are screwed, if they are less than 7 they are, and so on with any of those numbers.
When i changed the rc on NKVD to vets town wins 53% or so... while putting them on ukranian town wins 59% Now i am at work, i dont have my code here, but at night i can post numbers or the complete c++ code if any wants to check it.

I changed my vote to L, since i dont want Ace to be elected and i think most of you just follow the shiny glow of those who selfclaim them as vets.

the game isn't so simple. The reason most of us who know better don't give a shit about your math is because not only does it depend on who has what role, who is mafia/town, and how lucky some people get - it just makes no sense. Nothing in this game is truly random. Rolechecks aren't just "hmmm ok I'll just pick this guy for no reason" - no. Then you say something that makes no sense such as town winning 53% of the time if NKVD vet claim...really? How so? You think every single Rebel is going to say shit, it's a vet..let me not hit him? How do you account for the fact every mafia member may individually agree to just go ape shit and kill any vet they run into?

This is why you're useless. Screw your C++ program too. You are like araav in Mafia 2.

LucasWoJ

United States936 Posts

July 30 2009 21:42 GMT

#410

Please don't post numbers when you get back.

Scamp

United States1086 Posts

July 30 2009 21:44 GMT

#411

Well this is nice. It looks like L and Ace are pretty much getting along.

Ace if you think (and I'm not sure, but it seems that way) that if a Ukranian RCs a vet that they're just going to plug away at that person then wouldn't a NKVD increase his survival time by posing as a Ukranian instead?

Ace

United States16096 Posts

July 30 2009 21:46 GMT

#412

I don't think that. I was giving an explanation of why his simulation would be wrong. I don't think every Rebel is going to kill a Vet that they catch but I'm also sure every Rebel won't leave them alone. His simulation doesn't account for both of these facts so it's just one of the reasons why no one should be paying it any attention.

Scamp

United States1086 Posts

July 30 2009 21:50 GMT

#413

Alrighty, makes sense. Thanks much.

Ace

United States16096 Posts

July 30 2009 21:52 GMT

#414

by the way L. I hope you're keeping a real good eye on that list of people voting for you and LucasWoj

Vivi57

United States6599 Posts

July 30 2009 21:57 GMT

#415

lol if you kill me.

defending myself from ace isn't worth my time

hope the town gets a good lol when I die

Zato-1

Chile4253 Posts

July 30 2009 21:57 GMT

#416

On July 31 2009 06:26 coltrane wrote:
Ok, look... my maths arent wrong

Maths are a very powerful tool, but it does seem a bit like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole in this case. From what I gather, Mafia is a deeply social game. You can't predict people's actions with a probability distribution if you have no idea what drives them to take those actions (and those actions certainly aren't chosen randomly).

While mathematical analysis of some sort might be helpful (with a LOT of assumptions) to determine how many people of each role there should be, the actual outcome of the game will be determined by things like which players were chosen as mafia, what clues are given and what we make of them.

Ace

United States16096 Posts

July 30 2009 22:01 GMT

#417

On July 31 2009 06:57 Vivi57 wrote:
lol if you kill me.

defending myself from ace isn't worth my time

hope the town gets a good lol when I die

don't worry, by now you should know I care more about who's on what side than what role people have. Being that no matter what role you get you are useless I'm going to instant lynch you if I get Field Marshall.

lulz will be had for sure.

Falcynn

United States3597 Posts

July 30 2009 22:04 GMT

#418

Wait...so how about this, we just tell the NKVD to choose what they feel is best between rebels and vets and move on from this topic. It's not like we'll be assured whether or not they'll even listen to what we decide on. At this point we know at least that there are only two decent options. Disguise as Veterans, or disguise as rebels.

The main argument for veterans right now, is to avoid all of the hassle that gets involved with the NKVD trying to prove themselves and keeping their information credible. There really is no specific advantage to this, other than avoiding all of the disadvantages of being disguised as a rebel.

We've already discussed all of the possible advantages and disadvantages of disguising as a rebel ad nauseum.

I figure if we let them decide, then chances are some will disguise as rebels acting out the so-called landmine role, while others will disguise as vets and be safe enough to conduct their research. If they all disguise as rebels, well, then we just have to hope that they're lucky enough to not get RC'd, and if they do, smart enough as well to keep themselves alive long enough to get any information they have out.

If they all disguise as vets, then perfect, they continue their research as normal, but the threat of them being disguised as a rebel will remain.

As long as they don't actively seek to contact the rebels I'm sure they'll be alright. Considering that we really have no direct control over what they do, this much discussion is getting a bit tiring.

Vivi57

United States6599 Posts

July 30 2009 22:09 GMT

#419

On July 31 2009 07:01 Ace wrote:

Show nested quote +

ace is right 100% of the time guys