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I was intending to make my last post to go out with a bang, and be done posting. But Honestly, that's not going to do it. This game seems to be moving fast since I just called out 2-4 people in the first night. This just got extremely interesting.
Alventenie, you are a genius and just gave me a way to prove my DT without being lynched. At least by the townies. That idea is incredible.
Right now I have put the mafia in a very bad situation. One of there best players has been called out. and I have already confessed that if I somehow live, my next suspicion is going to be on Midnight. He seems very likely to me. The mafia has to get me, they have no choice. They have been forced into a really terrible predicament. Look at it this way.
If the town wins no matter what here if they play it right and logical. If I am indeed telling the truth. The mafia has to kill me tonight, or the next day there is an extremely good chance I will expose another one of them. If I die tonight, Ace dies tomorrow.
If instead of voting me or ace, we vote DecafChicken who a lot of people seem to suspect. We might lynch a townie, or we might get a mafia. Keep in mind if we do that. the mafia HAS to lynch me. They have really no choice. So we vote decaf, I die no matter what. Since if the town kills me a die, if the town kills decaf, both me and decaf die. Either way ace gets exposed.
The mafia has NO choice but to try to cut it's losses here and try to get the town to lynch me first. No matter what happens, ace is gone. They must try to choose how they can minimize the damage since Ace was such a huge player for them.
Now to bring the fight to Ace, I admit I was wrong before when I said your theories were wrong and we just had to disprove them. However now you are panicking and have just slipped up horribly. After reading your post here, I couldn't help but respond at least one more time.
as of now, you want to vote on the person that gives us the most info which is Folca. This follows no logic here Ace and you know it. See? He is already trying to cut there losses by having you kill me first. It has been explained several times why the town killing me doesn't benefit it. The town not killing me gives them way more knowledge if I live another round. Ace is working against us.
If decaf flips red - great we have mafia.
If he doesn't, we move on to Night1/Day2 down a townie with no obvious information
If we kill Decaf and he is a townie then we gain no information that is true. We check off some clues. However neither me or you will live to the next night. As I said, the Mafia has to have me dead and if for some reason they DO NOT kill me, The town will kill me the next night. But by then I will be able to reveal another clue, another member of the mafia hopefully.
In the Ideal situation. Decaf is mafia tonight and we lynch him. The mafia doesn't kill me (which doesn't make sense) I get to reveal another name. You all kill me, see Hopefully 2 Mafia members in Ace and Midnight. In a matter of 2 days we manage to kill 3/10 mafia. Cutting there killing power and gaining an edge.
What I believe will happen is we lynch decaf he is mafia, the mafia kills me revealing ace then me and ace are down and theres plenty of suspicion on other players courtesy of my sacrifice.
The last thing One situation is an ABSOLUTE benefit for the town while the other is probable and based on an incomplete clue. I say we lynch Folca and stick with it.
Lynching me only benefits the town if somehow I am alive on day 2. Where killing me will either A. Kill a mafia (being me) or B. Kill me, show that Ace (fact) is a mafia, and hopefully by then I will have found out for fact that Midnight is indeed also mafia.
Killing me today doesn't benefit the Town, it benefits the Mafia.
Also your attempt to dissuade us from killing decaf is also convincing me even MORE that decaf is indeed another mafia and that you are trying to save your own.
Also, that damn list is going to own us in the end if everyone sticks to voting me or ace.
Note: If Alventenie turns out to be mafia at some point in this game, all I'm going to say is WOW, I got worked. but the logic in what he said is sound, so I can't see him being a mafia. You seem really good at this game and for gods sake I hope you are on our side. If we lynch decaf and he IS mafia, we should have a paramedic protect Alventenie, I can't see the mafia throwing away 2 people in order to get 1 person on our inside.
By the end of this, tomorrow we should have 2 Mafia dead, 3 if mine and Alventenie's guess work pans out. If decaf is someone important, I would be careful about Alventenie.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On November 03 2008 10:28 MTF wrote:Ugh, sorry guys. Short version of today is that my internet went down. (long story involves a loose hamster chewing through internet cables) Anyway, I haven't had time to read through the thread yet, but here's my assessment on the clues so far. Keep in mind that all of these connections are going to be weak, as we're just starting here. MidnightGladius:Profile Quote: "It's time to acknowledge the inevitable. Stifle your pride and embrace the glory of change." Clues: + Show Spoiler +
"the noose now tight around his neck Chuiu took a look over at the man ready to pull the switch. "Embrace the release that death brings you", he stated as he pulled the switch."
"Then one person stood atop the gallows embracing the moment he cried out to the town"
Both instances of the word "embrace" are during a time of change, which directly correlates with the profile quote.
Can you honestly say decaf is a better candidate than Gladius? Not saying that decaf isn't mafia; but imo the clues a stronger in Gladius's direction especially seeing that coffee has been in other chuiu clues.
EDIT: P.S I like your plan Folca (you must have posted while i was searching for this analysis). Best thing we can do imo - losing a DT this early is a real drawback for the town.
I change my vote, and vote for MightnightGladius
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In the rules it says Mafia can't vote for each other. Earlier I asserted that I thought either Plexa or FakeSteve to also be a mafia to the the authority clue. If we look at the list it says that FakeSteve was supposed to vote for Ace but before we posted how the list was a dumb Idea we have FS posting "I am drunk...lalallalala! Abstain!" He has to abstain because he can't vote for me because it's basically against the list. and he can't vote for Ace because the rules declare that he cannot.
Alventenie your thinking assumes mafia are 100% stupid.
Mafia wouldn't kill me tonight. Leaving myself alive forces the town to lynch myself tomorrow. Whether i get a role check in again or a vote check in again means nothing if there are only two lists to check. So you'd actually just be starting from scratch, and taking chances on decaf's unfulfilled clue. Thats the problem people have - your long term plan isn't really long term. You HAVE to lynch me tomorrow anyway and I can't do a vote check when im dead can he? So you might as well go the sure fire route and lynch him today because between me and him, you KNOW one of us is mafia.
Aces latest post, I don't need to re explain the logic here. Just read the posts and you can see Ace is just trying to preserve the Mafia from what is now about to look like a 3 dead mafia within 2 days. We are moving the Mafia into checkmate, it's just a matter of how this move works here.
## Vote decafchicken
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@MTF, it makes no sense to vote for me if mafia is going to kill me. If you believe the mafia is going to kill me then why would you help them do it? thats essentially giving them another person to kill off during the day.
If I understand your reasoning, you understand that situation and still vote for me. this is a VERY strange reaction to say the least. It makes me think that you could also be a mafia? Think about it. This draws even MORE suspicion onto Decaf IMO, and to himself. If we find out that decaf is now also a Mafia, that means that MTF must ALSO be a Mafia
Think about it, Mafia can't vote for each other, that means that for FACT Ace is mafia. and if Decaf is mafia, (which this makes it look even MORE like he is) then that basically means that MTF must ALSO be mafia.
If this all pans out, we have found between 3-5 mafia on day 1 T_T this feels like minesweeper right now, I mean we get close to one and all of a sudden they clues come out of the woodwork.
The thing is, I understand it's just the first days clues, but Jesus Christ, when I came out as DT I didn't expect all this shit to go down, at least to this extent.
To narrow it down, here is what I have gathered so far.
Fact: Ace is Mafia
Thoughts: If we prove that Decaf is Mafia by lynching him first. We thus prove that MTF must also be mafia, due to how he seems to understand how it works in his post, YET he still chooses to vote me. If he is also mafia and decaf is mafia. He has no choice but to vote me. He can't vote the others.
So now I have Ace as fact. and MTF and Decaf as EXTREMELY likely mafia.
Then Midnight is still really suspicious , but not nearly as much as the 3 names above him.
Now we bring it down to the other suggestion I made.
FakeSteve chose to not vote, instead of vote for Ace, which according to the list (when people were still kind of listening to it) he chose note to vote. Instead of voting for me. Once again, he can't vote for a MAfia if he is a Mafia.
I believed the clue about authority pointed towards either FakeSteve or Plexa, and I was waiting to see what Plexa said before anything. But I didn't see us having the time to wait.
These 2 however are still very up in the air. The other 4 I am pretty sure about.
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Woah, just got home. Looks like the drama already started. So either Folca or Ace are mafia? Folca is also accusing a lot of people of being mafia. O_O Who to believe?
I have a lot to catch up on.. so for right now:
I abstain from voting
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folca....your logic is starting to fall apart very badly.
In fact, I find it surprising that even in the face of a move that makes no sense on things you can't prove your trying to dupe us.
1.) You claimed Detective and said you investigated me.
2.) You call out MidnightGladius as a top suspect.
3.) You vote to lynch decaf based on Emp and Alventenie's reasoning?
How does this add up? You go from saying your SURE I'm mafia, to accusing MG, to voting for decaf all on a bandwagon. Thing is if you really are a DT you could have only used your powers ONCE. So how can you be going after THREE people?
You can't even claim that you are a fake DT or that another DT checked you because you would be lying - because you couldn't check me and you couldn't check that other DT to see if their mafia using you as a puppet. So that idea is out of the window.
In fact, it's not that many people that are voting to lynch decaf - it was a bandwagon started by Emp and Alventenie hoping you didn't get lynched, and Emp abandoned it. In fact, no DT has come forward to say that decaf IS mafia. So why is the town bandwagoning him? It makes much more sense for the town to resolve the situation between you and I before going off on lynching someone we are not sure is mafia.
But the bottom line remains: Why are you so strong in thinking that the three of us are mafia when you could only have possibly used ONE role check? Answer - you're not.
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1) I did investigate you
2) MidnightGladius is a top suspect, because I Know you are a part of the mafia
3) Im following the Decaf plan too
You probably didnt read my posts right
I said, these are my FACTS and THOUGHTS
Are you trying to protect yourself? Its really not working right
Facts : YOU ARE THE MAFIA
Thoughts : MIDNIGHT GLADIUS IS A PRIME SUSPECT IN MY BOOK
All this follows if the townies believe that I am a detective
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On November 03 2008 22:33 Folca wrote:
1) I did investigate you
2) MidnightGladius is a top suspect, because I Know you are a part of the mafia
3) We lynch decaf because of how everyone says that the clues lead to him
who is everyone folca?
I'm waiting.
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why the post edit? go back to your original post
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Really dont have the time, which is 6 minutes, does it really matter anyways? rofl
:edit:
Gone
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yes it does. Answer the question
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Folca, you're talking crap. Mafia are allowed to vote for another mafioso for lynching purposes. They just can't murder other mafiosi during nighttime. You should read the rules before declaring you uncovered 3-5 mafia on the first day.
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hmm.... Folca looked pretty weak toward the end there with Ace. I want to believe Folca but he can just be a roleclaimer. You have to really know that the 3 people he's accusing is really mafia but has so far only provided proof for one AND we have to take his word for it. Still so confusing..
I'm keeping my stance and will abstain due to insufficient proof on both sides.
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On November 03 2008 22:13 Folca wrote:In the rules it says Mafia can't vote for each other. Earlier I asserted that I thought either Plexa or FakeSteve to also be a mafia to the the authority clue. If we look at the list it says that FakeSteve was supposed to vote for Ace but before we posted how the list was a dumb Idea we have FS posting "I am drunk...lalallalala! Abstain!" He has to abstain because he can't vote for me because it's basically against the list. and he can't vote for Ace because the rules declare that he cannot. Show nested quote + Alventenie your thinking assumes mafia are 100% stupid.
Mafia wouldn't kill me tonight. Leaving myself alive forces the town to lynch myself tomorrow. Whether i get a role check in again or a vote check in again means nothing if there are only two lists to check. So you'd actually just be starting from scratch, and taking chances on decaf's unfulfilled clue. Thats the problem people have - your long term plan isn't really long term. You HAVE to lynch me tomorrow anyway and I can't do a vote check when im dead can he? So you might as well go the sure fire route and lynch him today because between me and him, you KNOW one of us is mafia. Aces latest post, I don't need to re explain the logic here. Just read the posts and you can see Ace is just trying to preserve the Mafia from what is now about to look like a 3 dead mafia within 2 days. We are moving the Mafia into checkmate, it's just a matter of how this move works here. ## Vote decafchicken
They can't go after each other at night. They can vote for each other in lynchings.
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## Vote Folca
God Folca, if you had PM'd a random person, you might still be alive :D, unless you are mafia, dirty scum, though I'd think it would be highly unlikely for mafia to risk one of their own for even Ace, especially this early in the game.
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16945 Posts
The reason why no DTs have stepped forward saying that decaf is mafia is that they know there is a likely chance that he is mafia and they don't want to risk their own lives to say something the town already knows.
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Emp why do you guys keep saying the town already knows decaf is mafia? Not a single one of you can offer anything better than a clue that has been used in past games. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if you yourself are in this conspiracy.
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Who do you suggest lynching then, Ace? Except Folca, I want to keep him alive one more day in case he is really a detective.
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I dont have anyone else in mind, and I never did. I was just trying to get my plan followed through with :/
No one else matters at this point because no one else has anything strong enough that gives us a chance of finding mafia.
Emp, can you answer my question.
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We don't know 100% for sure he is mafia, but i would rather keep folca alive (unlike you, who wants him dead tonight) until tomorrow because he is still useful. Killing him now doesn't get us any further ahead than it would killing him tomorrow.
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EPT
