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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Have you a found a clue that points to me? no Have you found out a way to see if Folca is legit? no And logic dictates that if anyone steps up as a DT and accuses someone and their validity can't be proven then they get lynched because otherwise mafia will always fake claim DT with no consequence. You guys are making no sense and you know it. It's like no matter what the best possible move is the plan is to lynch decaf. | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On November 03 2008 17:15 fanatacist wrote: I abstain from voting. Too many bullets being fired in a glass house, breaking pretty windows T_T On November 03 2008 17:19 Mandalor wrote: Did Folca use his second role check already? I've read through the last pages, but probably missed it. If you haven't, I suggest checking either nemY or SoleSteeler. It really only is a gut feeling I have, but first of all they posted the exact same things: "I abstain, because I don't have a clue. Good Luck to the town blah blah." Sort of. It's the exact same thing 80% of us mafia did at the beginning of the last game before we had a plan. I vote to lynch Folca, for now. LOL also aznvaliance i note you just suddenly voted for folca randomly. This is the first time you've even bothered posting something in this thread lol, not to mention you're also a suspect, and it seems like you're just part of the mafia bandwagon that always follows a lynch of a possible person. Not to mention with so many people voting Folca it is diluting the pool of mafiasos out of townies. That long chain of voting for Folca is really fucking suspicious. | ||
Empyrean
17018 Posts
 Anyway, I think it's better to lynch decaf than Folca because in the case that neither of them are mafia, if we lynch decaf, we only lynch a green whereas if we lynch Folca, we lynch a blue. EDIT: Not to mention that at least we have some clues to work off of for decaf but still no clues for Folca. As you put it, "Have you a found a clue that points to [Folca]? no" | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On November 03 2008 23:37 Ace wrote: how the hell is Folca useful if he's mafia? None of you can tell me WHY you believe Folca is a legit DT. Have you a found a clue that points to me? no Have you found out a way to see if Folca is legit? no And logic dictates that if anyone steps up as a DT and accuses someone and their validity can't be proven then they get lynched because otherwise mafia will always fake claim DT with no consequence. You guys are making no sense and you know it. It's like no matter what the best possible move is the plan is to lynch decaf. Quite simple: if Folca is mafia, he is either lying or telling the truth about you being mafia. Now why would they target you here if they were lying? Because you were a good leader for the town last game. Speaking of which, there is a clue that sort of points to you, the part where they mention how we can't trust any mayor or governor or authority. You were the mayor last game, no? Anyways here's how I see it. At this point in time there is about a 50-50 chance that Folca is a DT or Mafiaso. His coming out is suspicious but I see no clues related to him here. By accusing you, there are one of three possibilities. 1) He's telling the truth as a DT 2) He's telling the truth as a mafiaso 3) He's lying as a mafiaso which is a 2 in 3 chance. If we let him live tonight. if he is a mafiaso he will live, if he is a DT he may or may not get killed by the mafiaso. If he does, that not only proves his statement but also places big red marks on midnight gladius and certain other people. So we would have 1 and most likely 2 mafiaso. If he doesn't die tonight, we can ask him to do a role check of someone else and reveal it and see if they confirm this role. Then having used up powers he may or may not have, we lynch him to see if he's telling the truth. If he's lying well we have a mafia in the bush. If not, now we get one person proven innocent or two/three/four proven mafiaso. by your way of just killing him now, if he turns up blue hes telling the truth and we lynch you and maybe midnight glaidus. if he turns up red we don't prove anything. So under the above scenario, we have either: 1 dead dt, 2 dead mafiaso, one less person dead during the night 1 dead dt, 3-4 dead mafiaso 1 dead dt, 2-3 dead mafiaso, one proven townie. 1 dead proven mafia and two potentials. whereas under your strategy we have 1 dead dt, 2 dead mafiaso or 1 dead proven mafia and two potentials. i like the top one better i dunno. | ||
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Empyrean
17018 Posts
On November 03 2008 23:46 Ace wrote: Thats not what I wrote. I wrote have you found a clue that points to me. Some people have found a clue which could possibly be applied to you. No one has found a clue which could possibly be applied to Folca. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
4.) Folca is lying about being a DT, but is a normal townie used as a front by a legit DT 5.) Folca is lying about being a DT, but is being used by a fake DT mafia to get me lynched 6.) same as 6, but I'm mafia and it's just a super scheme The one thing about it is you can't call the motivation for it. You just don't know. The one standard is you HAVE to lynch the guy who is accusing because we can't PROVE he is a DT. If you lynch me and when I flip green, you lynch him who do you think won out? All of you keep looking at one side of the equation but conveniently ignore the other. And not a single one of you can tell me why he is a DT besides the same excuse " what reason does he have to lie?" By that very train of logic don't you think mafia would do it then? Next, the issue of "these other alleged mafia". Just because someone says they are a DT it does not mean any analysis or guesswork they do becomes credible. Unless they explicitly say they've investigated someone then it isn't a fact. How can four people miss this? The votes to lynch Folca are not what's suspicious around here, it's you guys. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
right. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On November 03 2008 23:37 Ace wrote: He isn't useful if he's mafia, but very useful if he is a detective. We have no way of knowing which is the case, but he could be a detective, so he could be valuable.how the hell is Folca useful if he's mafia? None of you can tell me WHY you believe Folca is a legit DT. Have you a found a clue that points to me? That leader type dude who holds the speech could relate to you. By the way, there is no clue evidence against Folca yet.Have you found out a way to see if Folca is legit? no Correct, but the possibility makes him precious already. Having a DT (who can even be told publicly what to do) one day outhweighs having a mafia alive one day longer in my opinion.And logic dictates that if anyone steps up as a DT and accuses someone and their validity can't be proven then they get lynched because otherwise mafia will always fake claim DT with no consequence. I agree, but I say we do it tomorrow.You guys are making no sense and you know it. It's like no matter what the best possible move is the plan is to lynch decaf. Due to lack of alternatives, yes, decaf seems to be our best bet atm, although he is far from 100% mafia. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
We either dont lynch or go for what we have: the collision between myself and Folca. you're right, the clue could relate to me and it could relate to fakesteve. Having a public available DT when there's a suicide bomber means that the DT won't be available for much longer. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
Tomorrow, nothing will have changed about Folca's credibility, so we will dispose of him tomorrow (unless the mafia does that for us, which I doubt). But he will have revealed valuable information by then if he is a detective. If not, we gain the same information from his death as if we'd lynched him today, only it is delayed by one day. It's all a tradeoff between risks and rewards. Don't you care at all whether we use up a potential detective? They don't grow on trees, y'know. Folca has to die, but we should at the very least get some use out of him before that. The suicide bomber doesn't worry me at all. Poll: What to do? (Vote): Lynch Folca today (Vote): Lynch Folca tomorrow (Vote): Don't lynch Folca at all | ||
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HeRoS)Pink
Canada336 Posts
On November 04 2008 00:29 Ace wrote: Having a public available DT when there's a suicide bomber means that the DT won't be available for much longer. this is why we should not vote for folca since we can get a *sure* mafia this lynch (you or decaf) if the mafia is stupid enough to sacrifice their suicide bomber on someone who's a known DT then Folca would have been more useful than he should have been ( 2 mafia dead in 1 nights pretty good ratio) | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
wouldn't the medics have to chance his protection? Remember the medics probably dont know who each other, so it would all be on blind trust. Knowing that, they can even bank on the fact that all the medics wont protect Folca out of fear and just stack hits to kill him. Either way, how does that justify killing decaf when no one can say with certainty he is mafia? | ||
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decafchicken
United States20086 Posts
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On November 03 2008 23:59 Ace wrote: There's more than 3 possibilities so it's not that simple. 4.) Folca is lying about being a DT, but is a normal townie used as a front by a legit DT 5.) Folca is lying about being a DT, but is being used by a fake DT mafia to get me lynched 6.) same as 6, but I'm mafia and it's just a super scheme The one thing about it is you can't call the motivation for it. You just don't know. The one standard is you HAVE to lynch the guy who is accusing because we can't PROVE he is a DT. If you lynch me and when I flip green, you lynch him who do you think won out? All of you keep looking at one side of the equation but conveniently ignore the other. And not a single one of you can tell me why he is a DT besides the same excuse " what reason does he have to lie?" By that very train of logic don't you think mafia would do it then? Next, the issue of "these other alleged mafia". Just because someone says they are a DT it does not mean any analysis or guesswork they do becomes credible. Unless they explicitly say they've investigated someone then it isn't a fact. How can four people miss this? The votes to lynch Folca are not what's suspicious around here, it's you guys. i don't think folca is lying as a green here. Otherwise wouldn't have have said he was representing, seeing as that way he would still get interesting information, et. al? we're not lynching you yet. We will lynch Folca tomorrow if he's still alive before hand. Half of your argument is just rhetoric that seeks to confuse issues (which is suspicious enough in itself). We are still lynching Folca first before we lynch you if at all. Although your very spirited defense of decafchicken is also interesting. Because if decaf flips red this could have very interesting applications. Lynching folca today is just a bad idea on so many levels. It's better to have a 1/5 chance of getting another mafia than worrying about one in the hand. who knows the mafia might take care of our problem for us. And if anything that long rapid chain of votes for folca is really suspicious especially b/c half of them are based on bs reasoning or none at all, as well as people loosely connected to the clues. | ||
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HeRoS)Pink
Canada336 Posts
On November 04 2008 00:54 Ace wrote: ok let's assume folca is innocent. wouldn't the medics have to chance his protection? Remember the medics probably dont know who each other, so it would all be on blind trust. Knowing that, they can even bank on the fact that all the medics wont protect Folca out of fear and just stack hits to kill him. Either way, how does that justify killing decaf when no one can say with certainty he is mafia? Well I dont really want to lynch decaf on those clues since its not really that strong, I would go for someone like KH91 because its hard to find clues against him and On November 03 2008 21:18 KF91 wrote: I abstain from voting. | ||
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araav
Armenia1590 Posts
On November 03 2008 23:59 Ace wrote: There's more than 3 possibilities so it's not that simple. 4.) Folca is lying about being a DT, but is a normal townie used as a front by a legit DT 5.) Folca is lying about being a DT, but is being used by a fake DT mafia to get me lynched 6.) same as 6, but I'm mafia and it's just a super scheme wow Ace? what a mis-logic from you... 4, 5 - no detective would have leaked his identity to him in the first round... no detective could check 2 people as of now 6 - wtf... i think the plan is simple, we lynch Ace. if he turns green, we lynch a sure mafioso, Folca this is provided we do not have a more sure candidate for today... I think Folca being a mafia is low chance, as it's too early for the mafia to throw in something like this... it's still early game and the town itself would go into chaos without any outside help. so... I change my vote to Ace | ||
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ZBiR
Poland1092 Posts
On November 03 2008 23:37 Ace wrote: how the hell is Folca useful if he's mafia? None of you can tell me WHY you believe Folca is a legit DT. Have you a found a clue that points to me? no Have you found out a way to see if Folca is legit? no And logic dictates that if anyone steps up as a DT and accuses someone and their validity can't be proven then they get lynched because otherwise mafia will always fake claim DT with no consequence. You guys are making no sense and you know it. It's like no matter what the best possible move is the plan is to lynch decaf. Logic also tells mafia to NOT pretend to be detectives and accuse someone like that, since it will only get them killed first. This makes me think, while I'm far from being certain that Folca speaks the truth, that he's more likely to be legit than not. Also, I completely agree with Alventenie, I don't understand why so many people work against him when obviosly letting Folca live one night gives us additional information and takes almost nothing in return. One thing I disagree is that MidnightGladius or Aznvaliance is a more viable lynch target, as both link greatly to that "accepting the change that is death" or sth clue. However, primary thing for me today is to keep Folca alive, so I will vote decaf, as he has way more votes than Gladius and Azn, and I think he's also possible as mafia, although not that strong. ## I vote to lynch decafchicken. (expect this to change when Gladius has more votes) | ||
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ZBiR
Poland1092 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Think about it. A few people are ignoring the fact that lynching myself or Folca is a sure fire way to get rid of 1 mafia in favor of killing a potential innocent because "The mafia wouldn't fake that DT claim". How is this making sense to anyone? It's the same 4 people saying it, and not ONE of them can tell the town how decaf's clue is strong enough to lynch him and how Folca can be proven to be a DT. It's not adding up at all. | ||
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