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On August 13 2024 05:00 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On August 13 2024 03:47 ThunderJunk wrote:
He'll need to be able to go big macro if he wants to take down Soulkey. Don't think going big macro is the way to solve Soulkey, especially for the Protosses as late game PvZ is not in their favor. Mini actually has the right approach: get an advantage in the early game and kill Zerg in the mid game. And to get an advantage in the early game, you need to be good at it and have a well executed plan. Snow goes late game vs Soulkey a lot and gets destroyed regularly. And here's Bisu going super late vs Soulkey recently, on equal bases as well, but still couldn't take him down.
I mean... as P you do have to apply pressure and hopefully damage Zerg in the early-midgame if you want to play Zerg in the lategame. But once you get map control with storm, archon, dark archon, reaver - Bisu showed me games where that sort of latemax scenario is winnable against a top Zerg. It actually might have been Soulkey. It was before Larva won the ASL. In fact, Larva's main macro prep for that ASL was against Bisu. That was the ASL where Larva beat Mini 4-3 by defending well enough take it late and surviving 6 bespoke early-midgame aggression builds. Mini actually just proxy gated game 7 on Fighting Spirit because he knew he couldn't go late against Larva.
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On August 13 2024 07:30 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 13 2024 05:00 TMNT wrote:On August 13 2024 03:47 ThunderJunk wrote:
He'll need to be able to go big macro if he wants to take down Soulkey. Don't think going big macro is the way to solve Soulkey, especially for the Protosses as late game PvZ is not in their favor. Mini actually has the right approach: get an advantage in the early game and kill Zerg in the mid game. And to get an advantage in the early game, you need to be good at it and have a well executed plan. Snow goes late game vs Soulkey a lot and gets destroyed regularly. And here's Bisu going super late vs Soulkey recently, on equal bases as well, but still couldn't take him down. I mean... as P you do have to apply pressure and hopefully damage Zerg in the early-midgame if you want to play Zerg in the lategame. But once you get map control with storm, archon, dark archon, reaver - Bisu showed me games where that sort of latemax scenario is winnable against a top Zerg. It actually might have been Soulkey. It was before Larva won the ASL. In fact, Larva's main macro prep for that ASL was against Bisu. That was the ASL where Larva beat Mini 4-3 by defending well enough take it late and surviving 6 bespoke early-midgame aggression builds. Mini actually just proxy gated game 7 on Fighting Spirit because he knew he couldn't go late against Larva.
I mean of course it's winnable for Protoss at any state of the game including very late game. It's just they have the best chance to beat Zerg in the mid game (see pic below), so basing your strategy on that is the right approach. Let's face it: Protoss goes to late game vs Zerg because they can't kill them, not because they want to.
![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/Qb40CXm/racial-win-rate-vs-time-pvz-selectioncomparison-MMR-Groups.png)
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On August 13 2024 09:03 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On August 13 2024 07:30 ThunderJunk wrote:On August 13 2024 05:00 TMNT wrote:On August 13 2024 03:47 ThunderJunk wrote:
He'll need to be able to go big macro if he wants to take down Soulkey. Don't think going big macro is the way to solve Soulkey, especially for the Protosses as late game PvZ is not in their favor. Mini actually has the right approach: get an advantage in the early game and kill Zerg in the mid game. And to get an advantage in the early game, you need to be good at it and have a well executed plan. Snow goes late game vs Soulkey a lot and gets destroyed regularly. And here's Bisu going super late vs Soulkey recently, on equal bases as well, but still couldn't take him down. I mean... as P you do have to apply pressure and hopefully damage Zerg in the early-midgame if you want to play Zerg in the lategame. But once you get map control with storm, archon, dark archon, reaver - Bisu showed me games where that sort of latemax scenario is winnable against a top Zerg. It actually might have been Soulkey. It was before Larva won the ASL. In fact, Larva's main macro prep for that ASL was against Bisu. That was the ASL where Larva beat Mini 4-3 by defending well enough take it late and surviving 6 bespoke early-midgame aggression builds. Mini actually just proxy gated game 7 on Fighting Spirit because he knew he couldn't go late against Larva. I mean of course it's winnable for Protoss at any state of the game including very late game. It's just they have the best chance to beat Zerg in the mid game (see pic below), so basing your strategy on that is the right approach. Let's face it: Protoss goes to late game vs Zerg because they can't kill them, not because they want to.
If you look closely on that chart, you'll see that games that go super late favor P at the highest MMR displayed.
I just think it's short-sighted to never play lategame PvZ because your build is so all-in in the midgame. Like, throwing in all-ins in the midgame will get you wins and keep a Z honest, but if you can't transition from heavy midgame pressure into later scenarios, Z knows they can just cut drones and survive and you'll kill yourself on their army. But like, being able to pull back after the pressure netted you 5 or 6 hydras more than you lost while smoothly transitioning to later scenarios against a Z is an important thing to be able to do.
Anything could happen, but if we got a Mini Soulkey finals, my money would be on 4-1 Soulkey.
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According to Liquipedia, RO24 are starting at the end of february 2025. Please tell me this is a mistake ?!
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On August 13 2024 11:28 TornadoSteve wrote:
According to Liquipedia, RO24 are starting at the end of february 2025. Please tell me this is a mistake ?!
This is a mistake.
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On August 13 2024 02:15 TornadoSteve wrote:
Of course, any players who played in ASL in the past have automatically ASL points. In fact, thats how they create the RO28 in every season. Since they finished top4 last season, as you probably know, they are seeded onto the RO16 for this season.
Thanks for clarifying. I meant to ask, what are their ASL points? Cuz it's not listed in the NAMU website (I don't think...)
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On August 13 2024 09:16 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 13 2024 09:03 TMNT wrote:On August 13 2024 07:30 ThunderJunk wrote:On August 13 2024 05:00 TMNT wrote:On August 13 2024 03:47 ThunderJunk wrote:
He'll need to be able to go big macro if he wants to take down Soulkey. Don't think going big macro is the way to solve Soulkey, especially for the Protosses as late game PvZ is not in their favor. Mini actually has the right approach: get an advantage in the early game and kill Zerg in the mid game. And to get an advantage in the early game, you need to be good at it and have a well executed plan. Snow goes late game vs Soulkey a lot and gets destroyed regularly. And here's Bisu going super late vs Soulkey recently, on equal bases as well, but still couldn't take him down. I mean... as P you do have to apply pressure and hopefully damage Zerg in the early-midgame if you want to play Zerg in the lategame. But once you get map control with storm, archon, dark archon, reaver - Bisu showed me games where that sort of latemax scenario is winnable against a top Zerg. It actually might have been Soulkey. It was before Larva won the ASL. In fact, Larva's main macro prep for that ASL was against Bisu. That was the ASL where Larva beat Mini 4-3 by defending well enough take it late and surviving 6 bespoke early-midgame aggression builds. Mini actually just proxy gated game 7 on Fighting Spirit because he knew he couldn't go late against Larva. I mean of course it's winnable for Protoss at any state of the game including very late game. It's just they have the best chance to beat Zerg in the mid game (see pic below), so basing your strategy on that is the right approach. Let's face it: Protoss goes to late game vs Zerg because they can't kill them, not because they want to. If you look closely on that chart, you'll see that games that go super late favor P at the highest MMR displayed. I just think it's short-sighted to never play lategame PvZ because your build is so all-in in the midgame. Like, throwing in all-ins in the midgame will get you wins and keep a Z honest, but if you can't transition from heavy midgame pressure into later scenarios, Z knows they can just cut drones and survive and you'll kill yourself on their army. But like, being able to pull back after the pressure netted you 5 or 6 hydras more than you lost while smoothly transitioning to later scenarios against a Z is an important thing to be able to do. Anything could happen, but if we got a Mini Soulkey finals, my money would be on 4-1 Soulkey.
super late game heavily favors protoss in pvz. bases become extremely cost efficient to defend while a zerg has to throw large amounts of units to break narrow and fortified positions. I have seen so many 35+ minute games become unwinnable for a zerg because they just run out of money. It happens in that very long zvp on nemesis in ASL. Zerg just could not break because the cost efficiency is so bad with units that die to one storm or one scarab. Another example is Motive vs MisO in CNSL on retro. Motive just killed thousands of minerals of zerg units because he had a ramp. and it cost him almost nothing beside good control.
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On August 13 2024 09:16 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 13 2024 09:03 TMNT wrote:On August 13 2024 07:30 ThunderJunk wrote:On August 13 2024 05:00 TMNT wrote:On August 13 2024 03:47 ThunderJunk wrote:
He'll need to be able to go big macro if he wants to take down Soulkey. Don't think going big macro is the way to solve Soulkey, especially for the Protosses as late game PvZ is not in their favor. Mini actually has the right approach: get an advantage in the early game and kill Zerg in the mid game. And to get an advantage in the early game, you need to be good at it and have a well executed plan. Snow goes late game vs Soulkey a lot and gets destroyed regularly. And here's Bisu going super late vs Soulkey recently, on equal bases as well, but still couldn't take him down. I mean... as P you do have to apply pressure and hopefully damage Zerg in the early-midgame if you want to play Zerg in the lategame. But once you get map control with storm, archon, dark archon, reaver - Bisu showed me games where that sort of latemax scenario is winnable against a top Zerg. It actually might have been Soulkey. It was before Larva won the ASL. In fact, Larva's main macro prep for that ASL was against Bisu. That was the ASL where Larva beat Mini 4-3 by defending well enough take it late and surviving 6 bespoke early-midgame aggression builds. Mini actually just proxy gated game 7 on Fighting Spirit because he knew he couldn't go late against Larva. I mean of course it's winnable for Protoss at any state of the game including very late game. It's just they have the best chance to beat Zerg in the mid game (see pic below), so basing your strategy on that is the right approach. Let's face it: Protoss goes to late game vs Zerg because they can't kill them, not because they want to. If you look closely on that chart, you'll see that games that go super late favor P at the highest MMR displayed.
That's just not true. From minute 20 to 40, the green line has just 1 point above 50% and the yellow line has 7 points.
You probably focused on the yellow line from minute 30 to 40 where the yellow line has 6 points above 50% but keep in mind that the sample size here is extremely small, like probably 10-20 games at each minute (thus the huge error bars). So most likely you can say the game is 50/50 at this extremely rare state.
The majority of PvZ games end before the 25th minute mark with a huge uptick for Protoss in the mid game (10-17th minute):
![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/gV5KS5p/racial-win-rate-vs-time-pvz.png)
Even if your assumption that PvZ favors Protoss in the super duper late game (beyond 33th minute), which I doubt is true anyway, it makes no sense for Protoss to not end the game when it favors them massively (10-17th minute), go through a lengthy period when it favors Zerg (19-33th minute), just to end up in a place of unclear advantage. That's why I said Mini has the right approach.
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Netherlands4641 Posts
Z is on a timer as soon as it hits late game unless they have (or control) 3/4 of the map. The key moment for Protoss is probably around that 17-20 minute mark to close it out or make a transition into resource management possible that's not terribly skewed into Zerg's favor.
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Z dont need 3/4 of the 4p maps. 3/4 is total domination. Just slightly above half of the map is enough, or in other words, 1-2 bases more than P.
Like in the Soulkey vs Bisu game I linked above. Both are on 4 bases at the 17th minute, then both take a fifth base at 18th minute, and Z takes a sixth base at 20th minute while P is still on 5 bases. The game ended with Z having 7 and P having 6 bases.
2p maps are probably better for P in late game PvZ though. You can split the map better and defend your remaining bases easier and Z dont have a lot of resources to eat like in a 4p map.
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On August 13 2024 11:28 TornadoSteve wrote:
According to Liquipedia, RO24 are starting at the end of february 2025. Please tell me this is a mistake ?!
it's a mistake
namu says it starts on 2024 august 26th (monday)
https://namu.wiki/w/SSL 2024 AUTUMN
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Russian Federation83 Posts
hyyyppe! 
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![[image loading]](https://stimg.afreecatv.com/NORMAL_BBS/7/15524207/276566bc2ab737bd1.png)
SSL R24 grouping has been released
Any group looks really crazy.Hope to see sSak destroy Bisu 
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Think we'll see many upsets in Ro24 because of the map pool. Maps are very unbalanced this season.
First two games are played on Dominator.
Winners and losers games played on Minstrel, Deja Vu or Kick Back (each player bans 1), so probably mostly Deja Vu.
Final game on Monty Hall, Radeon or Pantheon, so most likely Pantheon.
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On August 14 2024 19:22 TMNT wrote:
Think we'll see many upsets in Ro24 because of the map pool. Maps are very unbalanced this season.
First two games are played on Dominator.
Winners and losers games played on Minstrel, Deja Vu or Kick Back (each player bans 1), so probably mostly Deja Vu.
Final game on Monty Hall, Radeon or Pantheon, so most likely Pantheon.
Did zergs hate or love dominator? Because Dominator first is going to really determine which race will make it to Winner's Match the most.
Predictions + spoonful of wishful thinking for some wack predictions
Group A:
NoeL > Queen (LOL) | Rain > NoeL | Queen > Barracks | Queen > NoeL (Rain + Queen)
Rain > Barracks
Group B:
Mini > Scan | Mini > Bisu | Scan > Ssak | Scan > Bisu (Mini+Scan)
Bisu > Ssak
Group C:
Motive > Rush | RoyaL > Motive | Rush > Sacsri | Motive > Rush (Royal+Motive
RoyaL > Sacsri
Group D:
Speed > Best | Speed > Action | Best > Sea | Best > Action (Speed+Best)
Action > Sea
Group E:
Light > Teolbo | Light > Jaedong | Shine > Teolbo | Jaedong > Shine (Light+Jaedong)
Jaedong > Shine
Group F:
JyJ > Free | JyJ > Mind | Stork > Free | Stork > Mind (JyJ+Stork)
Mind > Stork
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On August 14 2024 19:34 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2024 19:22 TMNT wrote:
Think we'll see many upsets in Ro24 because of the map pool. Maps are very unbalanced this season.
First two games are played on Dominator.
Winners and losers games played on Minstrel, Deja Vu or Kick Back (each player bans 1), so probably mostly Deja Vu.
Final game on Monty Hall, Radeon or Pantheon, so most likely Pantheon. Did zergs hate or love dominator? Because Dominator first is going to really determine which race will make it to Winner's Match the most.
Not a great sample size but ZvT on Dominator is at 37%. PvZ 43% and TvP 46%. I guess it makes sense considering the position of the 3rd gas.
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At what hour will the groups start, btw? Anyone knows? 7PM KST?
Thanks for posting the groups. Cheers 
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On August 14 2024 20:00 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2024 19:34 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On August 14 2024 19:22 TMNT wrote:
Think we'll see many upsets in Ro24 because of the map pool. Maps are very unbalanced this season.
First two games are played on Dominator.
Winners and losers games played on Minstrel, Deja Vu or Kick Back (each player bans 1), so probably mostly Deja Vu.
Final game on Monty Hall, Radeon or Pantheon, so most likely Pantheon. Did zergs hate or love dominator? Because Dominator first is going to really determine which race will make it to Winner's Match the most. Not a great sample size but ZvT on Dominator is at 37%. PvZ 43% and TvP 46%. I guess it makes sense considering the position of the 3rd gas.
It does feel like bad a zerg map pool for anyone but Soulkey(maybe hero too)
I think ELOBOARD reflects this well.
Soulkey #1. then its terrans and protoss from rank 2 to 9 with HerO on 10. Then its 11-13 terrans/protoss and the third zerg(Jaedong) at 14.
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On August 14 2024 21:37 M3t4PhYzX wrote:At what hour will the groups start, btw? Anyone knows? 7PM KST? Thanks for posting the groups. Cheers
Yesh. 7pm kst should be starting time if my conversion isnt all wrong
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EPT
