EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 5
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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ZerOCoolSC2
8834 Posts
On February 28 2022 23:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Are they prisoners, what? Or is the island still under Ukrainian control? https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1498298563197026319 A Ukrainian ambassador came out yesterday and said that the reports are that the sailors are alive and were captured. The Russians also said they'll be returned to their families. Take that as you will, but two sources from both sides have said that the sailors are indeed alive. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On February 28 2022 23:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: How? Was the island not bombarded? There's no way that island is under Ukrainian control as Ukraine doesn't really have a navy anymore. I think they had one ship after Crimea was taken, which was deployed outside the Black Sea when the invasion occured.Are they prisoners, what? Or is the island still under Ukrainian control? https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1498298563197026319 | ||
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Fildun
Netherlands4118 Posts
On February 28 2022 23:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Are they prisoners, what? Or is the island still under Ukrainian control? https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1498298563197026319 Island is under Russian control, all defenders surrendered, this was known from day 1. It was a nice pre-packaged morale boost, same as the sunflower seeds and the Ghost of Kyiv, although I think these last two formed a bit more organically. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Maersk, one of the world’s largest shipping container firms, said on Monday that it may suspend all deliveries to and from Russia in light of sanctions against the Kremlin following its invasion of Ukraine. The Danish shipping giant said it was “closely monitoring and preparing to comply with the ever-evolving sanctions and restrictions” imposed against Russia as President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine entered its fifth day. “Our preparations include a possible suspension of Maersk bookings to and from Russia on ocean and inland,” Marsek said in a statement. “We are at the same time keeping a close eye on developments and assessing the best options for our customers and their cargo.” The U.S., European Union, Canada and Britain have all announced sanctions targeting Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week. The measures include blocking certain banks’ access to the SWIFT international payment system and freezing the assets of Russia’s central bank. Maersk said on Monday that it would do its “utmost” to ensure cargo already on the water reaches its intended destination. “It’s also worth noting that air space is also gradually being restricted and our air services will be impacted,” the company said. Shares of Maersk were down 3% on the news, having slipped more than 11% year-to-date. The shipping giant has been active in Russia since 1992 and operates routes to and from the key ports of St. Petersburg, Novorossiysk, Vladivostok, Vostochny and Kaliningrad. The company said last week it had stopped accepting bookings to and from Ukraine until further notice. Source | ||
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Dan HH
Romania8958 Posts
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12125 Posts
On February 28 2022 21:44 Sbrubbles wrote: I was having similar thoughts, but it's hard to know what's even on the table. I would guess some agreement on DNR/LNR independence and acceptace of Russian sovereignty over Crimea? Would the Ukrainian people accept such terms? I really have no idea. There might be some Ukrainian promises of joining "just" the EU or some sort of NATO-without-foreign-troops, but after the current debacle, these promises might be of questionable value once the dust has settled (plus, they obviously don't depend on just Ukraine). Belisarius said it well that a middleground solution would be far more than Putin deserves and far less than he would accept, but still, gotta have hope that there's some acceptable solution out there for an immediate end to hostilities. I just want to mention Russia doesn't mind NATO, Russia minds the NATO infrastructure. WHich in this context probably mean other than the own countries army bases? Not sure. Russia addressed this multiple times and every time they said NATO infrastructure. Currently they're against the NATO joining because that means the risk of NATO infrastructure getting closer. This is kinda foggy as during the postSoviet time there were some promises around this and as it appears they were kinda iffy on both sides. Even in the Putin's speach it said NATO infrastructure. And again, I have no idea what that exactly means, but recently Russia told to Czech republic that we have nothing to fear as we have 0 NATO infrustructure here. | ||
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whaski
Finland576 Posts
https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-will-not-allow-lethal-weapons-ukraine-transit-its-territory-fm-2022-02-28/ | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32736 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On March 01 2022 00:17 Dan HH wrote: The ruble is holding on decently well against the first wave of panic, one of the more interesting measures is that exporting companies are required to sell 80% of their foreign currency revenue. But of course the actual effect of the sanctions isn't that quick, this just means they staved off going into a spiral instantly. Define holding on decently? The Russian currency plunged about 30% against the U.S. dollar after Western nations announced moves to block some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system and to restrict Russia’s use of its massive foreign currency reserves. The exchange rate later recovered ground after swift action by Russia’s central bank. Russia’s central bank immediately moved to try to halt the slide of the ruble. It sharply raised its key interest rate in a desperate attempt to shore up the currency and prevent a run on banks. It also said the Moscow stock exchange would remain closed Monday. The bank hiked the benchmark rate to 20% from 9.5%. That followed a Western decision Sunday to freeze Russia’s hard currency reserves, an unprecedented move that could have devastating consequences for the country’s financial stability. Source | ||
KwarK
United States41548 Posts
On March 01 2022 00:17 Dan HH wrote: The ruble is holding on decently well against the first wave of panic, one of the more interesting measures is that exporting companies are required to sell 80% of their foreign currency revenue. But of course the actual effect of the sanctions isn't that quick, this just means they staved off going into a spiral instantly. Presumably at an exchange rate set by the Russian government but not possible to attain by anyone else. When they’re buying raw materials in rubles the foreign vendors will give them the actual rate. Then when they collect foreign currency from customers the government will give them the official rate. This’ll fuck them up. As an example: Imported raw materials -$100 (-12,000 rubles (assuming foreign vendor exchange is 1:120)) Domestic manufacturing costs -6,000 rubles Exported sales price $200 (should be 24,000 rubles at real exchange rate) Forced government conversion back to rubles = +16,000 rubles (government pays 1:80) The business is profitable, they can convert -18,000 rubles into +24,000 rubles at a free exchange rate. However the government will not sell them dollars at an official rate of 1:80 and foreign vendors require the actual rate. The forced conversion of customer receipts at the official rate makes the profitable business unprofitable (-18,000 into +16,000). | ||
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dbRic1203
Germany2655 Posts
Also the first russian Bank, the European daughter of Sberbank, is close to collapsing allready Source (again in German, but Google Translate is decent nowadays): https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/sberbank-erster-russenbank-droht-die-pleite-101.html | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15897 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17701 Posts
On March 01 2022 00:46 KwarK wrote: Presumably at an exchange rate set by the Russian government but not possible to attain by anyone else. When they’re buying raw materials in rubles the foreign vendors will give them the actual rate. Then when they collect foreign currency from customers the government will give them the official rate. This’ll fuck them up. As an example: Imported raw materials -$100 (-12,000 rubles (assuming foreign vendor exchange is 1:120)) Domestic manufacturing costs -6,000 rubles Exported sales price $200 (should be 24,000 rubles at real exchange rate) Forced government conversion back to rubles = +16,000 rubles (government pays 1:80) The business is profitable, they can convert -18,000 rubles into +24,000 rubles at a free exchange rate. However the government will not sell them dollars at an official rate of 1:80 and foreign vendors require the actual rate. The forced conversion of customer receipts at the official rate makes the profitable business unprofitable (-18,000 into +16,000). Very similar to the situation in Argentina during the first Kirchner era. Export pretty much collapsed entirely. | ||
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Mafe
Germany5966 Posts
On March 01 2022 00:24 PhoenixVoid wrote: Based on what I'm reading from people who have their pulse on Russian media and public opinion, they're not going to be easily transformed into popular anti-war sentiment or a mass uprising overnight. Still a lot of resentment about Western sanctions impacting ordinary Russians who feel they have clean hands about Ukraine. Many still believe this is a limited military operation to cleanse Ukraine from Nazis. We've also seen nations sanctioned to all hell by the West like North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba, but their regimes still stand today. I dont think the goal of the sanctions is to get Putin out of office. Sure there would be no complaints if that happens. But for now the main goal of the sanctions is to make the war stop, be it with or without Putin still being in office. | ||
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Fildun
Netherlands4118 Posts
On March 01 2022 01:13 Erasme wrote: Did anyone confirm the low stockage of ammunitions on the russian side? From what I've seen they're primarily running out of fuel, not ammo. Some convoys low on food as well. A theory I've heard is that the first columns of the invasion took all the supplies with them and that later columns were already quite low on supply, couple this with all the logistics strikes we've been seeing and this is the end result. Of course, this is purely conjecture but it kind of lines up with what we've been seeing. Most of the pro-Russian sources I follow have been rather quiet today, although a couple of them were actively cheering for civilian casualties in Kharkiv following the bombing with cluster munitions there, disgusting. Overall I would say this was another day with very limited Russian gains, looks like they might not even fully encircle Kyiv by tomorrow by the rate they're going at, which would imo be a big surprise. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7771 Posts
On March 01 2022 01:13 Erasme wrote: Did anyone confirm the low stockage of ammunitions on the russian side? Where did you read that? I would doubt they are that badly prepared but at that point…. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12125 Posts
On March 01 2022 01:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: The only comforting fact is that there isn't an EU Army yet. Because all it would take is for say one French soldier to be shot followed by Article 5 being invoked and WW3 started. Also no idea if the EU would even allow Ukraine to become part of the EU right now. https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498328808088391686 Is their law system in compliance with the EU? IIRC it took years for ours to pass this check. Without the law system I can't see them being rushed through this. | ||
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KwarK
United States41548 Posts
On March 01 2022 01:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: The only comforting fact is that there isn't an EU Army yet. Because all it would take is for say one French soldier to be shot followed by Article 5 being invoked and WW3 started. Also no idea if the EU would even allow Ukraine to become part of the EU right now. https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498328808088391686 France wouldn’t be stupid enough to say “hey, I think we should all die over this” over one soldier getting shot and if they did say it then the rest of NATO would say “lol no”. A single soldier getting shot is not the war NATO is built to prevent. | ||
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