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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 752

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18442 Posts
November 19 2024 07:30 GMT
#15021
On November 19 2024 11:18 Razyda wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2024 10:57 KwarK wrote:
On November 19 2024 10:51 Razyda wrote:
On November 19 2024 10:39 KwarK wrote:
On November 19 2024 10:37 Razyda wrote:
On November 19 2024 10:23 KwarK wrote:
On November 19 2024 09:34 Razyda wrote:
On November 17 2024 19:50 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
On November 17 2024 13:01 Razyda wrote:
On November 17 2024 01:00 Billyboy wrote:
War strategy buffs, I have a strategy I'd like to propose and get your opinions on how it would work if they did it.

+ Show Spoiler +
I have no expectation that this is actually going to happen, I just think it would help and I have not read any what ifs on this scenario. What it would do well and what it would do poorly I'm interested in hearing about. Why they would not do it not so much because I think we all know those


I think Poland, the Baltics, Norway and Finland should all prepare for war and move their militaries to an obvious offensive position for "war games". Canada and Sweden prepare for taking the Artic. The rest of the countries that support Ukraine should also move their militaries as if to defend the NATO countries.

At the same time they should remove all restrictions on Ukraine from using western made weapons and Ukraine should announce an massive conscription.

I believe this would force Russia to slow their offense and defend against a possible attack. If they do not, it makes it painfully clear that their propaganda of fear of a NATO attack is complete horse shit as they are defending against offensive posturing.

It would energize the Ukrainian people as they would feel supported and as if they had a real chance to defeat Russia.

If Russia keeps going Poland, Finland and others could decide to take back their historic land (or threaten it) unless Russia returns to its pre 2014 boarders. They should also send words of support and promises to support any uprising anywhere in Russia. (and perhaps actually send military supplies).

Also, of this would require firing any bullets or risking any troops. It would also be great practice for western militaries.

Sure you are risking escalation, but Russia knows they can't fight everyone even with their tight allies of Iran and NK. I doubt their shadow allies helping them economically are going to enter.

I don't think it would like instantly win the war or anything like that, but I think it would put immense pressure on Putin and his strategic staff. Waste huge amount of their resources, including time and planning, I don't think Russia would escalate because other than nukes they are maxed out and currently they could still turn back, and the powerbrokers can keep getting rich off their peoples cheap labour and selling resources abroad.

The Russian people themselves would be all the sudden scared because Ukraine could and will hit them anywhere and all these other militaries who are fresh are perched right outside their boarders. All the places that hate Russia in Russia might also become emboldened.


Tear my strategy apart, support it. Interested on how you think it would work. (not that you don't think they would do it, because I know and agree with that.)


Great strategy. Putin then nukes London, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Rome effectively ending war and putting Europe in middle ages. If you think US will risk actual extinction in the name of revenge, I would suggest rethinking that.




I guess the war effectively ends when British and French second strike capabilities wipe out all major Russian cities.

Fair chance the US gets fucked by Russian second strike in the following confusion.

No, in that scenario Russia would nuke some midsize border cities from the direction NATO advances, like in Finland and Poland. And probably also Ukraine. Then the war ends because no one else wants to die.


I am sorry but have you seen the map? Russia is effectively more than twice the size of Europe. Also some numbers:

Russia population density:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=As of the 2021 census,22 inhabitants/sq mi).

8.5 inhabitants per square kilometre

Europe population density:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/#:~:text=Europe Population (LIVE)&text=The population density in Europe,87 people per mi2).

The population density in Europe is 34 per square kilometre

Russia's population density isn't so low. Hell, it's actually higher than that of the Kingdom of Denmark. Now you may argue that this is misleading because the Kingdom of Denmark includes Greenland which is mostly ice and the vast majority of people live in one area adjacent to Europe. To which I'd reply "didn't you just try to argue about the population density of Russia?"


I wouldn't argue that though. Why would I? The simple fact is that any nuclear strike of Russia on Europe is devastating, while Europe nuclear strike on Russia is sort of a scratch thing.

Europe area: 10.53 million square kilometers
Russia area: Total 17,098,246 square kilometers
Europe area - Russia area: 10,014,000 - 3,952,550 = 6061450 square kilometers

Doesn't that put things into perspective?

No, it doesn’t, because Europe includes Denmark so I win.


First of all: I don't think anybody wins.

Europe being reduced to Greenland doesn't seem like a "win"...

I don’t know, seems like I win because Kingdom of Denmark Sorry buddy but you lose. Get Denmark’d.


I am pretty sure you don't. Europe gets reduced to Greenland and Iceland, while Russia looses maybe Moscow and Leningrad. Hardly seems like an even trade...

Edit: for explanation Leningrad = St Petersburg

You think UK and France only have 2 nukes between them? What makes you think that?
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10953 Posts
November 19 2024 07:32 GMT
#15022
Probably the same condition that let's him bring up population density as a reason for nukes not being effective against Russia.
skokr
Profile Joined November 2024
1 Post
Last Edited: 2024-11-19 07:58:17
November 19 2024 07:58 GMT
#15023
Bot edit.

User was banned for this post.
0x64
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
Finland4641 Posts
November 19 2024 08:03 GMT
#15024
On November 19 2024 14:10 mounteast02 wrote:
The russian response does not have to be launching nuclear weapon by itself. It can be other things like providing better missiles to Iran's proxy to strike western / Israel's stuff in the middle east, arming North Korea etc.

Biden seems to be trying to make sure there is no peace deal of any kind between russia and ukraine. However, Trump can theoretically pull all support and let ukraine army to collapse, even though I don't think Trump will do that.

If the war drag on, may be the russian can get to Odessa, which Putin kind of said that during the interview with Tucker Carlson. Putin said Odessa was "historically Russian", for me that is a tacit implication that he want to take Odessa. Even though as of today, Odessa is not in serious threat of falling under russian control.

Ukraine may loss even more if the war keep getting drag on.


Yeah but Russia is buying desperately any weapon it can from Iran, and Israel is losing any support they could had in real time. Only the elected Trump could support Israel.

Russia is just a shadow of the Soviet union and it seems to be holding barely just because India and China benefits from the practical situation.
Dump of assembler code from 0xffffffec to 0x64: End of assembler dump.
0x64
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
Finland4641 Posts
November 19 2024 08:05 GMT
#15025
On November 19 2024 16:32 Velr wrote:
Probably the same condition that let's him bring up population density as a reason for nukes not being effective against Russia.


Look yeah that was the weakest troll seen here, even calling Saint Petersbourg Leningrad 😅. It's like the most divider move.
Dump of assembler code from 0xffffffec to 0x64: End of assembler dump.
sertas
Profile Joined April 2012
Sweden890 Posts
November 19 2024 09:51 GMT
#15026
1000 days now, russia controls 18% of ukraine (note they had 7% of ukraine before the invasion), good job ukraine, I wonder if the war will end in 2025, I think its 50/50
ZeroByte13
Profile Joined March 2022
799 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-11-19 10:09:13
November 19 2024 10:06 GMT
#15027
It's not necessarily about who controls what % of territory.
If tomorrow either side has no ammo anymore, these % will swing hard in a few weeks.
As others said here many time, it's more about who can endure longer resources-wise.

And Trump's decision about Ukraine's support might really change a lot.
With current support Ukraine holds its ground with RAF progressing but very slowly.
Who knows how would this progress look like if Ukraine had, say, 20-30% less resources all this time. Maybe they would lose territory only a bit faster, or maybe some fronts would simply collapse.

Of course, I don't know what % of current Ukraine's military-relevant resources comes from US - is it 20-30% or less/more than that.
sertas
Profile Joined April 2012
Sweden890 Posts
November 19 2024 11:37 GMT
#15028
I would asume that us is more than 30%, but I would also asume that ukraine has stockpiled in anticipation of recieving less, so ukraines output at current level is probably rationed for one more year of current stockpiles + european aid.

Since EU has stepped up and given 1 million shells this year for example, and will probably be around 1.5M+ next year.
KT_Elwood
Profile Joined July 2015
Germany1197 Posts
November 19 2024 13:50 GMT
#15029
Dooming:

I mean the war going nuclear is a constant threat, putin won't live forever, and those sowjet nukes would make a sensational "BOOM" for an epilogue in a central russian bunker.

Managing to get compromised people into the white house is a huge win. Trump even tries to circumvent the senate, threatening everyone within the intelligence and military with "court martials" shall they step up to impede his candidates or policies..even though they would just be doing their job.

With Trump at the helm, Putin can reasonably expect that NATO nuclear deterence shrinks to the countries owning nukes and the ability to hit moscow in retaliation.

In his wildest dreams, Russian influence would spread to the atlantic in lisbon.


"First he eats our dogs, and then he taxes the penguins... Donald Trump truly is the Donald Trump of our generation. " -DPB
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8279 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-11-19 14:23:00
November 19 2024 14:21 GMT
#15030
On November 19 2024 18:51 sertas wrote:
1000 days now, russia controls 18% of ukraine (note they had 7% of ukraine before the invasion), good job ukraine, I wonder if the war will end in 2025, I think its 50/50


I understand not paying attention to all the posts that have gone through this thread in the last few months, so here's a tl;dr: Yes, the war is incredibly likely to end in 2025, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the sad one, is that once Trump takes over, we know US support to Ukraine drops immediately. It's up in the air whether EU is going to pick up the slack, but my money is on "no". This effectively will force Ukraine into a peace deal that will be a lot less than optimal for them

But if the war does continue, Russia just isn't capable of continuing their wartime economy for much longer. They're already struggling to make ends meet this year. By this time next year, it will be evident that the Russian central bank isn't going to be able to finance themselves, which effectively causes a collapse. Russia is of course not going to just sit by and let that happen, but that means effectively ending their wartime economy, which in turn is going to have a huge effect on the ability to perform, you know, a war. They'll be desperate to push through a peace treaty before this happens.

So one way or another, it's likely the war ends next year.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44291 Posts
November 19 2024 14:27 GMT
#15031
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14210 Posts
November 19 2024 15:14 GMT
#15032
The issues a peace will need to resolve, without it just being appeasement until the next war a few years down the road, are just immense at this point to navigate. Ukraine knows that its an all-or-nothing battle for its existence, it either becomes an EU puppet or a russian puppet post war and one of those sides is the one that's invading it right now. Putin meanwhile has put his entire legacy on the line to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and needs to prevent that to avoid the existential threat it would cause. Russia has burned all its bridges with the EU and going back to the pre-covid days simply isn't an option anymore unless they accept that they will lose all the lands they've been fighting for this entire time. A wrench in this whole thing is the Kursk salient that Ukraine has every right to expect to trade for something, something Putin can't admit defeat on.

On top of everything I think everyone sees this as the last possible war in Europe. No one is going to accept not being under a nuclear umbrella anymore. No one wants to just set up the next war, reopening trade between the EU, Russia, and the united states is the only path to long term recovery from this tragedy.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Billyboy
Profile Joined September 2024
2379 Posts
November 19 2024 16:31 GMT
#15033
Rayza's super burn about me joining the UA army was great.... when obviously you can support in many ways and I'm not even medically eligible. Maybe if he thinks it is such a burn maybe he can join the Russian army to bring peace or something? And for me not caring about nukes because I'm in Canada, is hilarious because I'm in the danger zone on the maps you see, and obviously nukes anywhere are a global problem.

But I do get his point about Russia being so much worse than the rest of Europe that Europe has so much more to lose. I just think he's forgetting that that Putin and his Power brokers only care about themselves, they have it very good and are not going to want to get vaporized.

20 Red lines crossed (at least) no nukes. Still feeling super confident.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9331 Posts
November 19 2024 17:01 GMT
#15034
On November 19 2024 23:21 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2024 18:51 sertas wrote:
1000 days now, russia controls 18% of ukraine (note they had 7% of ukraine before the invasion), good job ukraine, I wonder if the war will end in 2025, I think its 50/50


I understand not paying attention to all the posts that have gone through this thread in the last few months, so here's a tl;dr: Yes, the war is incredibly likely to end in 2025, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the sad one, is that once Trump takes over, we know US support to Ukraine drops immediately. It's up in the air whether EU is going to pick up the slack, but my money is on "no". This effectively will force Ukraine into a peace deal that will be a lot less than optimal for them

But if the war does continue, Russia just isn't capable of continuing their wartime economy for much longer. They're already struggling to make ends meet this year. By this time next year, it will be evident that the Russian central bank isn't going to be able to finance themselves, which effectively causes a collapse. Russia is of course not going to just sit by and let that happen, but that means effectively ending their wartime economy, which in turn is going to have a huge effect on the ability to perform, you know, a war. They'll be desperate to push through a peace treaty before this happens.

So one way or another, it's likely the war ends next year.


I'm not sure if Europe is even capable of taking over in case America stops supplying Ukraine, especially with missiles/ammunition. I think the plans to increase domestic military production in Europe are still mostly just plans and there is no way we could start covering Ukraine's needs adequately since February or any other month in the first half of the year.
You're now breathing manually
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8279 Posts
November 19 2024 17:25 GMT
#15035
On November 19 2024 23:27 KwarK wrote:
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.


Sure, thay could happen. But it'll happen much much sooner than 2028. Once the central bank isn't able to finance itself, the collapse will happen quickly. It'll be towards the latter half of 2025, early 2026 at the latest
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22586 Posts
November 19 2024 17:45 GMT
#15036
On November 20 2024 02:25 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2024 23:27 KwarK wrote:
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.


Sure, thay could happen. But it'll happen much much sooner than 2028. Once the central bank isn't able to finance itself, the collapse will happen quickly. It'll be towards the latter half of 2025, early 2026 at the latest
I'm with Kwark on this. I think you underestimate how long a country can limp along with an economy that is technically dead.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
ZeroByte13
Profile Joined March 2022
799 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-11-19 19:07:36
November 19 2024 19:07 GMT
#15037
On November 19 2024 23:27 KwarK wrote:
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.
I'd say 2028 is batshit crazy but... I'd say the same about 2025 if you told me so in 2022.
So I don't even know anymore.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27381 Posts
November 19 2024 20:34 GMT
#15038
On November 20 2024 04:07 ZeroByte13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2024 23:27 KwarK wrote:
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.
I'd say 2028 is batshit crazy but... I'd say the same about 2025 if you told me so in 2022.
So I don't even know anymore.

Nation states can do some pretty crazy things when they really want to, obviously a different scenario but some of the numbers of various WW2 nations in terms of manpower and industrial output while on a total war footing are insane.

Or something like Covid which hit pretty damn hard in terms of business as usual economic activity, and did of course have lingering effects. But even at the height of various restrictions, in a hypothetical world where we had to remain at that level for many more years without state economies outright collapsing.

As I concede any time I wade into this area, economics is not one of my strong areas, so those more adept may feel free to call me on talking bollocks.

It was an interesting observation in one of my podcasts that looks at various historical epochs. Until relatively recently in historical terms, states of various forms could hit hard in a war, but had a glass jaw. You either knock your opponent out in round 1, or they knock you out. A single, or couple of bad military outcomes and you’re done. Whereas the more modern nation state has the capacity to go 12 rounds if it so desires.

'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
TL+ Member
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44291 Posts
November 20 2024 02:10 GMT
#15039
On November 20 2024 02:25 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2024 23:27 KwarK wrote:
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.


Sure, thay could happen. But it'll happen much much sooner than 2028. Once the central bank isn't able to finance itself, the collapse will happen quickly. It'll be towards the latter half of 2025, early 2026 at the latest

Based on what? Russians deciding they’ve had enough of dying for the vanity of a mad Czar? When has that ever happened? Even in the 1917 revolution part 1 they still wanted to keep fighting. It was only part 2 that surrendered, and only because they were literally on the German payroll.

The wheels will fall off before 2028 but the Russians will keep pushing the cart long after it stops moving.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8279 Posts
November 20 2024 05:58 GMT
#15040
On November 20 2024 11:10 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 20 2024 02:25 Excludos wrote:
On November 19 2024 23:27 KwarK wrote:
Strongly disagree. Russia will continue for sunk cost reasons despite economic collapse. I think 2028 or later.


Sure, thay could happen. But it'll happen much much sooner than 2028. Once the central bank isn't able to finance itself, the collapse will happen quickly. It'll be towards the latter half of 2025, early 2026 at the latest

Based on what? Russians deciding they’ve had enough of dying for the vanity of a mad Czar? When has that ever happened? Even in the 1917 revolution part 1 they still wanted to keep fighting. It was only part 2 that surrendered, and only because they were literally on the German payroll.

The wheels will fall off before 2028 but the Russians will keep pushing the cart long after it stops moving.


Based on the fact that modern war requires ammunition and equipment. Without it, Ukraine is going to start pushing back rapidly. Russia can want to fight as much as they want, it doesn't matter if they just get rolled over by tanks which they have no means of dealing with
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