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On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting.
Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago.
Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day.
I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition.
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GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war?
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On November 22 2024 00:44 Sadist wrote:
GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war?
I have a better question. Why a self-styled revolutionary socialist is concerned about people taking to the streets and forcing out corrupt and foreign-backed government? Because that's exactly what Ukrainians did to Yanukovych.
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Northern Ireland27478 Posts
On November 22 2024 00:51 Velr wrote:
Because USA bad.
I mean it is, but that aside
I don’t understand why aspects of the left make this a hill to die on. Really? You can’t criticise US hegemony and imperialism in isolation without running defence for Putin?
It’s incoherent bollocks, a veritable Gordian Knot of contradictions.
In a wider sense, it confuses me why folks of various stripes bat so hard for Russia full stop. Goes for the right in the US and Europe as well
It’s not all that relevant a country, outside of sending bots en masse to every social media outlet going.
Outside of its oil and gas companies, what Russian company has brought innovation to bear in these past few decades and become a global player? In any sector. They can’t even compete with individual Western European nations never mind the US or China
What cultural cachet do they have globally? Basically none.
Military might? Well, we’re seeing how that’s going.
But yet they seem inordinately disruptive in many areas. Why do we give them so much ability to do that? They’re Mike Tyson fighting Logan Paul, they’re not Mike Tyson youngest undisputed heavyweight champion.
It’s an old article but the many stats dumped are pretty instructive
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/06/21/putin-russia-poor-drunk-soccer-hooligan/0HjzEzAUT4J58guK170F0H/story.html
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On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition.
Rofl they threw out their president Yanukovich (Transparency Internationals #1 Example for corruption in government), when he refused to sign an agreement with the EU, that was ratified by a overwhelming majority of elected official in parliament.
And then he refused to step down or new elections. And then he called moscow and suddenly unmarked goons tried to disperse the protest in maidan square - violently.
I can't understand your tankie double standards. How much ruzzian copium you got to inhale to bone headedly say "moscow knows best". dafuq.
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On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition.
Even among the people who want peace now (52%) , 38% of them want no territory given up and 10% not sure. That peace will never be acceptable for russia under any circumstance, that would equate to total russian defeat.
That gives like 1/4 of people actually wanting to cecede territory for peace, and we know putin will not accept peace without significantly more territory then russia has now, he wants all of kherson, zaporishia, luhansk and donetsk, this would be more territory than russia even captured since the start of the war, this is a non-starter for peace for basicly anyone, peace is not in sight unless russia gets significantly weakened.
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On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition.
That's rich coming from a LARP-ing revolutionary. xD
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On November 22 2024 00:44 Sadist wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition. GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war?
I didn't/don't?
I do think Ukrainians are inarguably and objectively worse off today than they were before they violently overthrew their democratically elected government with the US's support/encouragement.
Also that as Manit0u put it: "Sure, we'll help you fight for your freedom, have some guns and money" and then later "We helped you fight for your freedom but now we kinda want you to just give up."
is typical US foreign policy and could/should have been expected. It doesn't seem like Ukrainians anticipated that and the consequences are/will likely be catastrophic.
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I don't understand why the Russian story focuses so much on the "CIA coup" angle.
Ukrainians kicked Yanukovych out on their own. They didn't ask the US to do that for them or protect them from the consequences of that action. The flags waved at the Euromaidan were mostly either Ukrainian or European. Barrack Obama didn't use his mind control powers to force Ukrainians to keep protesting, just like Boris Johnson didn't use his Sith magics to force Zelensky to continue fighting instead of surrendering. Framing this whole situation as some kind of noble fight against American imperialism is just absurd.
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Northern Ireland27478 Posts
On November 22 2024 02:17 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2024 00:44 Sadist wrote:On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition. GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war? I didn't/don't? I do think Ukrainians are inarguably and objectively worse off today than they were before they violently overthrew their democratically elected government with the US's support/encouragement. Also that as Manit0u put it: Show nested quote + "Sure, we'll help you fight for your freedom, have some guns and money" and then later "We helped you fight for your freedom but now we kinda want you to just give up." is typical US foreign policy and could/should have been expected. It doesn't seem like Ukrainians anticipated that and the consequences are/will likely be catastrophic.
Why are they worse off GH? What consequence of their actions has made them worse off and why was that triggered?
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Tankies need all kind of mental gymnastics to make people wanting to free themselves from moscow's influence seem like the bad guys, led on be even worse people.
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If they didn't want to be attacked by imperialists they shouldn't have tried to resist imperialism.
Its super funny to contrast this with his support for a revolution in America, which he concedes will be violent, and his otherwise dislike of imperialism. Inarguably Ukraine is the model for America he keeps telling everyone we need to follow, but when he sees the clear path of what his revolution will entail, he can't wait to rave about how it was a bad idea and shouldn't have been done.
The only good revolution is the one he wants to do.
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On November 22 2024 02:58 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2024 02:17 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 22 2024 00:44 Sadist wrote:On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition. GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war? I didn't/don't? I do think Ukrainians are inarguably and objectively worse off today than they were before they violently overthrew their democratically elected government with the US's support/encouragement. Also that as Manit0u put it: "Sure, we'll help you fight for your freedom, have some guns and money" and then later "We helped you fight for your freedom but now we kinda want you to just give up." is typical US foreign policy and could/should have been expected. It doesn't seem like Ukrainians anticipated that and the consequences are/will likely be catastrophic. Why are they worse off GH? What consequence of their actions has made them worse off and why was that triggered?
I'm not sure what you want/expect me to say, but Putin's/Russia's realpolitik in response to Ukrainians violently overthrowing of their own democratically elected government has made Ukrainians worse off by nearly every metric, including their own democracy
Despite that, libs/Dems still find themselves supporting the continuation of all this violence, death, and suffering instead of negotiating a negative peace as a lesser evil (which it objectively was for millions of Ukrainians prior to Euromaidan).
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On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition.
Imagine the scene, 06.01.2020. Lavrov with the American people in front of the Capitol, handing out shots of vodka to the crowd. In the afternoon, a leaked telephone call reveals that he talked to the Russian ambassador and said that he agreed with Trump on who will be part of the new administration, that QAnon Shaman will not be in a government position because he is too exposed. I wonder if that would be a coup in the USA by Russia or a legitimate change of government expressed by the will of the people.?
The saddest thing is that even this above bizarre Washington scenario would be more legal than the Maidan, because there were elections, the results of which could be contested, justifiably or not. There were no disputed elections in Ukraine, simply a group of neo-nazi thugs (with the direct participation of foreign countries and their high officials) created chaos based on a political decision that they could have change by winning the elections in 4 months. That is too much even for a colored revolution. Pure stupidity.
The question that comes from this: why the USA could not have done it better? To pump billions into pro-European parties and steal the elections, or win them, or at least claim they were stolen by the Russians and create a revolution. But they chose the route of being the biggest thugs in the room with the brutal trampling of the last semblance of democratic change of power in Ukraine.
They knew they would lose the elections if they let them happen in April/May.
Pro-Western forces revolutioned their way in to power in Ukraine in 2004. Where did they take Ukraine? Utopia? They were so corrupt and shit that Yanukovych came to power through elections, no one "appointed" him. He was chosen by more than half of Ukraine. He led the country so badly that the economy grew 35% in 4 years and to this day Ukraine has not reached the level of 2013 even after all the billions pumped in by NATO. If after everything someone still thinks that the Maidan is "a sincere expression of the wishes of the Ukrainian people", please contact me. I'm selling a magical tree that produces money, 2000 euro a pot, just make sure that you water regularly.
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On November 22 2024 03:38 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2024 02:58 WombaT wrote:On November 22 2024 02:17 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 22 2024 00:44 Sadist wrote:On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition. GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war? I didn't/don't? I do think Ukrainians are inarguably and objectively worse off today than they were before they violently overthrew their democratically elected government with the US's support/encouragement. Also that as Manit0u put it: "Sure, we'll help you fight for your freedom, have some guns and money" and then later "We helped you fight for your freedom but now we kinda want you to just give up." is typical US foreign policy and could/should have been expected. It doesn't seem like Ukrainians anticipated that and the consequences are/will likely be catastrophic. Why are they worse off GH? What consequence of their actions has made them worse off and why was that triggered? I'm not sure what you want/expect me to say, but Putin's/Russia's realpolitik in response to Ukrainians violently overthrowing of their own democratically elected government has made Ukrainians worse off by nearly every metric, including their own democracyDespite that, libs/Dems still find themselves supporting the continuation of all this violence, death, and suffering instead of negotiating a negative peace as a lesser evil (which it objectively was for millions of Ukrainians prior to Euromaidan).
So, you would argue that if the opposition is dangerous and evil enough, one would be best of just surrendering in general, and hope for more lenient treatment?
So if, for example, there was a government in the US which was pretty shitty and bad for a lot of people and the environment, but one would have to fear civil war if one opposes it (which would be very bad for a lot of americans), one should best just accept the shitty government?
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Northern Ireland27478 Posts
On November 22 2024 03:38 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2024 02:58 WombaT wrote:On November 22 2024 02:17 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 22 2024 00:44 Sadist wrote:On November 22 2024 00:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 23:32 sertas wrote:On November 21 2024 23:24 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 21 2024 07:56 KwarK wrote:On November 21 2024 04:47 ZeroByte13 wrote:
One requirement for the war to last until 2028 is Ukraine being able to hold for 4 more years.
This requires at least current level of economic/material support from US and EU, but even then there might (and probably will) be a personel problem - will there be enough people to replace killed/wounded ones for 4 more years?
It's a year more than entire duration of the war so far.
Same thing about personel problem can be said about Russia - but this also why I don't think it will last until 2028. The losses are far from existential while the war is existential. Ukraine can sustain this indefinitely. Not happily but they only have to like it more than they like Russian occupation. A majority would already rather negotiate a negative peace + Russian occupation (of some portion of Ukraine) than keep fighting. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible....38% believe their country should keep fighting until victory. news.gallup.comI think you guys are also underestimating how quickly Russia will be begrudgingly welcomed back into international trade with the West after Trump drops a bunch of the sanctions and Europe is unwilling to cut off their nose to spite their face. I just said the polls show that 88% of ukrainians think they will win, it's overwhelming majority. And give russia an inklin of weakness and they will not stop until they take whole ukraine, so a peace deal from weakness will mean ukraine no longer exists Then I showed polling demonstrating a majority of Ukrainians want to negotiate a deal ASAP, rather than continue fighting. Presumably the "inkling of weakness" was Crimea and that ship sailed about a decade ago. Ukraine no longer existing was a possible consequence of their violent overthrow of their democratically elected government. Their reliance on the US to protect them from Russia's response to that was predictably shortsighted and their negotiating position gets weaker by the day. I think the war will be winding down within ~a year even if some contingent of Ukrainians hold out as insurgent/terrorist style opposition. GH why do you seemingly root for Russia in this war? I didn't/don't? I do think Ukrainians are inarguably and objectively worse off today than they were before they violently overthrew their democratically elected government with the US's support/encouragement. Also that as Manit0u put it: "Sure, we'll help you fight for your freedom, have some guns and money" and then later "We helped you fight for your freedom but now we kinda want you to just give up." is typical US foreign policy and could/should have been expected. It doesn't seem like Ukrainians anticipated that and the consequences are/will likely be catastrophic. Why are they worse off GH? What consequence of their actions has made them worse off and why was that triggered? I'm not sure what you want/expect me to say, but Putin's/Russia's realpolitik in response to Ukrainians violently overthrowing of their own democratically elected government has made Ukrainians worse off by nearly every metric, including their own democracyDespite that, libs/Dems still find themselves supporting the continuation of all this violence, death, and suffering instead of negotiating a negative peace as a lesser evil (which it objectively was for millions of Ukrainians prior to Euromaidan).
Why is it Putin’s realpolitik and not Putin’s own imperialism here?
Why are you arguing for a lesser evil solution here? Given your entire rhetoric on the US Presidential election you continually made a point in rejecting ‘lesser evilism’ as being not good enough. Something I agreed with you on and indeed made many posts saying I did. I don’t think you can say that I didn’t, I don’t think others can.
But here you seem to do a complete 180, so why is that?
And not the accusatory why, a genuine why? It seems completely incongruous with your positions in other areas.
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United States44450 Posts
Putin is the one attempting to overthrow a democratic government. Zelensky was elected in free and fair elections.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://www.bpb.de/cache/images/0/762380_original.jpg?62CA5)
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