End of the World Party Mafia - Page 319

On March 04 2019 03:43 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Current list of thoughts. I'll try to keep myself from repeating takes but I didn't write these in order so I might occasionally say the same thing twice, especially if I'm commenting on another player's analysis of a third player.

1) Onegu
Onegu's contributions to the thread have been pretty lacking. Up to now all his contributions have been joke reads. But that also seems par for the course for Onegu. I looked at a grand total of two other games for comparison. In Hurricane Shelter he was town and posted like he does now. In Names are Hard 2 he was scum and posted a bunch of reads. So I guess he looks town for now

2) Fecalfeast
The good news is there's one theme in his filter and it's "I want to find scum and lynch them". Red reads on chezinu and LS.

3) Holyflare
Massive fucking filter. I'm going to skip to the end where he talks to people who aren't me, about me. HF was the first one to accuse me of foul play. Palmar took it and ran from there. Slam has said that already but I'll repeat it here. What I like about HF is at least on the surface his play seems honest





in that whole chain he holds LS accountable for sheeping



I haven't played the game they're referring to or looked at it, but I agree with the rest of this post. I find myself catching up a lot because like many people in the thread I underestimate the time commitment of this game, but I'd go even further than HF and say that that style is conducive to mafia because it's easier to slip through the cracks. That's not to say everyone who lurks or has other things to do is red, but it is a town strategy to encourage and pressure others to be more active in the thread.

4) Palmar
Most of his posts are about lynching me.

I think at this point in the game if you're scum, sheeping Palmar is the best strategy. Why Palmar in particular? He's got a commanding role in the thread and all of his actions look like he's finding scum - for now. The schtick might get a little old if he does literally nothing else and disappears but at least for now it's proactive enough to find at least one suspicious looking player and encourage people to vote for a second one (or give him that power - if he was 100% serious it would be trouble but he's not being 100% serious).

If he's town well then he kills one of his own, and once I flip town suddenly it's all for naught because people are at least a little suspicious of him. The reason you'd sheep him and not oppose him as mafia is because 1) he's already made the anti-Sentinel arguments for you so you don't need to think, and 2) you could always look good and defend me so that when I flip town you can say "I told you so" but as mafia it's dangerous to be right when everyone else isn't, especially if you haven't made a constructive argument for why I'm actually town.

If he's scum it's a pretty safe position since I'm not his teammate and unlike say Rels I've actually posted in this thread from time to time, which gives him just enough rope to hang me. Once I flip he can use the exact same argument to vindicate himself because mistakes happen.

5) LightningStrike
It's Mr. No Reads!


Very noncommittal and seems to be deflecting from himself rather than pressuring MZ.


Soft defense of Trfel


Soft defense of rsoultin & rayn


Soft defense of Vivax


Soft defense of darthfoley, no commitment on Oats, wanting to give FF and rayn more time.


Doesn't vote for the policy lynch (e.g. ##Mayor: Palmar). No commitment.





There's two universes here. Let's say you're dead set on believing I'm scum. Town LS should be pressuring me in some way. Palmar's entire platform is "Lynch Sentinel" so the easiest way to do that would be vote Palmar for mayor. Scum LS would be doing everything in his power to save his teammate. Or bus me but obviously he isn't doing that here.

Now let's say you correctly surmise I'm town. Town LS has no way of knowing this and LS hasn't given any reasons as to why I should be town. There is no take up to this point from him that says "Sentinel is town". You can always unvote later. What do you have to lose by not voting for Palmar in an effort to pressure me? And Scum LS would know I'm town, in which case all of the above comes across as a massive out in the event Palmar succeeds and I flip town.

The reason I believe it's the last case - that LS is scum - is because that behavior dovetails very well with his play. All of his reads are null to soft town, never giving too much justification whether or not they're town. He often plays devil's advocate with other people's scum reads and asks people "do you have full faith in your read?" without suggesting any alternatives. Oftentimes he follows this up with "I want to give [suspicious player] more time to post" without actually pressuring the suspicious player in any way. At 5 pages LightningStrike's filter is one of the longest in the game but most of it so far has been this kind of vapid content.



And yet he didn't vote for a mayor (still!) despite admitting "Palmar wants to use his mayor thing on Sent"



Still no commitment on me! Null at best. That would be great if LS had any other scum reads but all he has are soft town reads and null reads.

Still no conclusions on Oats. Soft defenses on rsoultin & rayn & vivax a second time in this game. Another "I want to give him more time to post" this time on sicklucker.

Solid red.

6) Blazinghand
Started reading the thread and his analysis of this game should come through around the same time as his analysis of British Empire Mini II.

7) Tictock
I'll be happy voting for him if only to get him to stop putting all his reads in spoilers

Here are some of his noteworthy takes



I agree with this for the same reason. More on this in my Meapak DD in the next post



What's interesting here is that the foundation of all of this is LS's first three posts. I don't know which three posts qualify but up to the "me and Damdred aren't masons" LS has posted nothing of substance, town or not.

Damdy is town because he agrees with LS. He's masons with LS and LS is town so they can't be scum together. Oops LS isn't a mason but LS is town and Damdy is still town because he said LS is town.

His justification is


So all of his town reads by association come from a belief that LS is honest. And that belief is predicated on the fact that LS was joking around.



I think this is colored by TT's dislike of HF



I don't like this post because he started with a gutread on her and acted off that information throughout the game, leading to the conclusion: rsoultin is town. It cheapens the value of all the evidence he posts afterward to support the fact rsoultin is town.

Leaning red

8) Oatsmaster
Oats is one of the few players in this game who's accused too many people of being mafia rather than too few. Then retracts some of them with this:


That's more generous than I would have phrased it but OK


No


Yes


I chuckled


I haven't played with HF enough to confirm or deny this and I don't have enough time to evaluate the meta of 35 players


OK

I think if you lean red on everyone it's only slightly better than leaning green on everyone. I'd almost call it a scum play Oats does put pressure on HF. I'd still lean Oats because even with that pressure he doesn't commit to any sort of scum team besides "half the thread", at least in any meaningful way to advance the game.

11) sicklucker
The "Hi I'm mafia" post doesn't inherently strike me as bad.

The entire first page of his filter is... interesting. Starts out with a lot of one-liners and a one-liner plus a quote from TL's spam warning. To quote Trfel,



What's more



This provides nothing of value, and



this, as I said in the previous post, is probably the best thing you can do as scum right now. This is the second-to-last post at the time I wrote this.



And this is the final post. Lots of fun stuff here. Claiming LS is town despite having no takes on him before or after this moment, asking LS to provide reads he himself can build off off, and another "I'm the mafia" joke which again in a vacuum isn't bad but on the tail end of a post like this looks bad to me.

Overall, no real scum reads, 1/2 iffy town reads on rsoultin and LS. However here's some mitigating factors:



stole my gameplan





These posts give me the suspicion that SL isn't scum but just being bad town given that it's his first game in a while and it's got 35 people in it. Palmar would probably policy lynch him but I'd rather find scum than take a risk on a bad townie who at least has the ability to lynch red players with everyone else.

12) Acrofales
What I don't like about Acrofales is that he read the same TT post I did but somehow he thought TT did a good read whereas I thought he did the opposite. What I do like is he posts a definite shitlist:



I do think he has a strong justification to vote for Palmar Mayor rather than HF mayor in that Palmar's fate in the thread is dictated entirely on whether or not I'm scum. It's a more one-to-one relationship. Whereas even if HF is wrong, a malicious HF could use all the other stuff to look town.

15) Chezinu
I'm not reading the RP. There's probably something good in there especially in the second half of his filter but I don't care enough to look for it.

17) ExO_
Came into the thread and posted a bunch of memes and left. Hasn't done anything since. The only reason I'd give for vigging him in particular of all the inactives is that he interacted with people (by posting memes), rather than just saying hi and disappearing (which could be for any IRL reason as well). He was following the thread if not reading it.

19) [UoN]Sentinel
Confirmed town

26) Mocsta
He just came in so I'll probably develop my takes further. Here are some of his deep dives and my thoughts on them



The most interesting thing here is the Palmar take. He offers some soft counters against the Palmar mayor platform even though he ultimately agrees with it. On one hand at this point it reads like "I'm behind Palmar but if things don't work out I'm giving myself this escape route".

Between this and his analysis of Acrofales and trfel though, and taking into account he had a huge thread to work with by the time he showed up, what I like about Mocsta's posts this game is they've been consistent. He starts with the player's meta and compares it to their play up to now in this thread and draws his conclusion on whether they're town or scum. As opposed to deciding whether or not a player is town or scum based on hunches/other motives and then finding evidence to buttress his position. This is pretty honest play and



as long as "at this point" doesn't extend too long into D1 I think Mocsta is looking slightly green. I'd like to hear more from him though before I can firmly say he's green or not.

27) Koshi
No posts yet

28) Trfel
Happy birthday!

Just like SL he "Hi I'm mafia" post in itself doesn't strike me as bad. What does strike me as bad is the back-and-forth about how many mafia there are in the game. His exchanges with first HF and then Conversion come at a time when rayn and a few others are trying to grill LS and MZ. Trfel and Chezinu provide a lot of volume between every post in that attack. The flip side to this is that by the next page both he and Chez are gone and the attacks continue, so it's not like he was just running interference as scum until rayn et al. took the heat off his teammates.



This is correct but I'd also like to point out prior to making this post he had precisely zero reads except calling rayn "maybe mafia" before retracting it in his next post. His next substantial post is agreeing with rsoultin that Tubesock is mafia and providing zero new or contradictory thoughts on TS in that entire post. Then comes this:









This is a really scummy move. He provides some counterarguments to HF, and then dismisses his own case taking HF at his word. This makes me think he didn't actually consider whether or not Oats is scum but just waffled a bit to figure out which way the wind was blowing and then take his position accordingly. Putting all this together it looks like Trfel is in the thread pretending to find scum without actually contributing anything to finding scum.

30) Mr. Wiggles
More active lately.

I like this. Pressures people to take more risky positions = information.



His LS read agrees with my LS read but isn't as strong. I dislike the Palmar justification because it seems to me that the end result is the same (both want to lynch me atm) but HF has offered more information to act on. Especially since in the last post Wiggles showed approval for HF, so it's not like he thinks he's red or anything.

31) BloodyC0bbler
Posts some early reads, hasn't done much since. Most interesting is his defense of Chezinu and attack on rsoultin for attacking Chezinu. Acrofales has said everything I want to say about him so I'll just quote his post:



32) Ace
The only thing of substance he's done in the thread so far is propose to nominate a lurker for mayor before disappearing from the thread. But it also does carry the cost of another NK. The lurker doesn't even have to show their hand since there's a lot of plausible deniability between "I haven't been keeping up with the thread" and "In the 30 minutes I've been here I think [suspicious townie] is scum". This gives me red vibes but Ace hasn't been here long enough for me to say for certain.

34) iamperfection
Comes out the gate with a bunch of one-liners. The rough sequence is:

1. I lean green on Tictock
2. I lean red on MZ
3. Jock had a bad post
4. Acro had bad posts
5. Chez has bad posts and is running interference
6. Sentinel's town read is prescient of his role. The man in the gif holds up 5 fingers which means it's a 5/5 play
7. Actually Tictock might be red
8. Oats is bad but not red

35) Rels
Came in here twice to post twice, hasn't done jackshit since