Pick Your Power: Intriguing - Page 279

On February 04 2016 00:06 Superbia wrote:
Tictock I'm going to make a final effort here in case you're town.



All right. The problem here is that you see my motivation as mafia-aligned regardless of what's behind it. Imagine this, you're the town vigi with a shot in 3v1, do you look for the 1 scum? Honestly consider it yourself. You have two kills as town, and you have 3 to pick from. Isn't it easier to just find a ride-or-die town and kill the other two? I really don't understand how you're still not getting this if you're town. The scenario is different from my POV because I have power that changes the math. I win if I find a single town.

The thing is, it does make sense that mafia didn't figure it out, because I didn't get killed. Moreover, this also slightly leans towards a world where the last mafia is either with cake, didn't shoot, or couldn't shoot. This last part doesn't really matter though, except that a stack on palmar is unlikely.

I'm going to be brutally honest here, and no offense, but I don't think both you and the shining are particularly great at logic, judging from your general responses to my logic and the fact I have had to explain the amount of lynches in a variety of scenarios multiple times. Part of the reason why I'm pretty sure the mafia is between you two. I think SL would probably have figured it out and I would've been dead during the night.

I think my tone has been the same throughout the game. I was going to be the judge during this mylo and let you guys fight so I could figure out who the confirmed town was (was already heavily leaning towards SL tbh). My outlook changed the moment the two of you decided that I was the all of a sudden mafia and I could no longer play the judge role.




Again, I have no idea how you're misreading my posts this hard every time.

For me we have a great chance to win because I can kill 2/3. If we sleep we lose that opportunity. So we go from 2/3 chance to 1/3. So yeah, town's chances go from almost certainly winning to decent chance of losing. Greatly reinforced by the fact that if the mafia is you, you'll more than likely be able to convince the shining that sicklucker is mafia, and if the shining is mafia, god knows where your logic will lead the game. So yes, I'd shoot every time (until SL came up with his plan).



Okay. Let me explain why a no-shot is always the incorrect play as mafia, and why I would never do it if I were mafia.

Yesterday it's 4v1v1, 4v2, or 5v1 (GB could have been mafia, now confirmed to be false). Agreed?

Now let's paint this in where I'm mafia, because my 2nd kp would change the math and we can make some assumptions because copcake flipped mafia due to my shot.

If I'm mafia, it's 4v1v1 or 5v1, unless I KP my partner (hint: nope).

So, if I am to no shoot, the following can happen:
1. It's 5v1, and there is no KP from mafia.
2. The Shining is mafia and there is no KP.
3. Other mafia holds their shot and there is no KP.
4. Mafia goes on my CPR target (very, very unlikely).

So, there's a actually pretty good chance that there is no KP. What does this mean?

We go to the following scenario:
3v1v1 OR 4v1.

What happens then? We sleep and I have to shoot the shining to prove myself. So let's examine the worlds then.
In a 4v1 it can only get reduced to a 3v1 or a 2v1 at best. AND town gets a the shining flip for free. Great reduces my chances if I'm mafia. (This would also be the likely world because I CPRed copcake, and a scum is likely to flip).
In a 3v1v1 I literally give the other mafia another chance to KP me during the night. So I basically turn the game into a coinflip. Yeah. No.

So yes, if I am mafia then no-shooting something I would never do.

Now let's fill in the world where you are mafia:

A. With copcake.
- You have no choice, you only have 1 KP. Rels could've been on both of you as opposed mafia as a bonus. However, I think that Rels may have been aligned with copcake. Can't remember why I think this though. I think this world is logically viable, but gut says Rels was with copcake so that means you couldn't have been with copcake. Next.

B. Not with copcake.
- I honestly think you accidentally stacked with copcake on Palmar here, or copcake no-shot (very unlikely world tbh). I don't think you held your shot because of the way you were pushing me pre-flip and the way you are fine with hard defending the shining, even though it looks like KP was missing on paper, and he was roleblocked (due to TMI).

Like I said before, I don't think your logic has been strong, so I don't think you would've understood the consequences of no-shooting versus shooting if you were mafia. The fact that you were already ready to defend The Shining makes me believe that there was no no-shoot from you, unless it's ultimate WIFOM and you were planning to let SL and myself to d the grunt work.

Now let's fill in the world where the shining is mafia:
A. With copcake.
- Copcake delivers the singular KP that they share. I feel like this can logically be a world because of the way copcake has played this game. I.e. she could've been with everyone bar Glowingbear (and myself). However, like I've said before, I feel like rels was with copcake so the shining couldn't have been.

B. Without copcake.
- Copcake delivered KP. TS couldn't deliver KP. It's a pretty straightforward world, but one that can be ridden out with the "mafia held their shot" WIFOM.

Sicklucker is mafia:
- Town loses the game.




No. I pick the TOWN between the 3 of you to win. I've explained this before. Sleeping without SL's plan is superbad because it literally loses us a lynch while confirming me town and I get to leave behind a 1-lynch legacy. Versus getting 2 lynches. Yeah. I think I've explained this enough already.

tl;dr: 2 lynches > 1 lynch.




Again, I COMBINE THE TWO. I get BOTH the lynch AND the shot. I'm not focused on the shot. I'm focused on both.



I've explained above why I would never no-shoot as mafia and have shown with logic how it gains town a free flip on the shining (and copcake/GB) while not costing you a lynch. Great play as mafia. 5/7.



No it doesn't. I find the town to ride or die with because it allows me to focus my efforts. I could focus on either of you but logically you both fit as mafia in the world. Stop hammering this shit home, it is really, really obnoxious.



Out of context. Pretty sure damdred's reponse was a reaction test because at that point in time I was still adamant about picking it. The only reason I let dreamflower go was because of the hilariously ingenious application of forcing a scummy player to pick it. I was pretty adamant about picking it because I loved the role and I'm pretty confident in shooting scum (100% hit rate when the shot went through btw. Also could still be 3/4 correct targets).



I shoot because I have 0 confidence in the town between you and the shining to make the correct play. I can honestly see you guys just lynching SL in final 3 after these shenanigans.



You know what I mean with this. Town should be super suspicious. YOU should be super suspicious. Your logic has been invalid and skewed (in the direction of me being Mafia), as I've pointed out before. Your evaluation on the shining is ???. I don't even know. You say you have a town-read on him but you said the same about me when you flipped your read on me ("Superbia is the same as he was last game we played in"). The real fact is that the shining should be your #1 suspect, or at least A suspect. But that's not what I'm getting out of your gameplay at all. Moreover, you're not even bothered by his absence or lack of contribution during this MYLO. Mind. Boggling.



I don't think you were logical enough to realize this (shooting me == optimal play). No personal offense meant. I've had to explain this logic multiple times already, and you're still either not getting it, or ignoring it. Moreover, I've explained the KP world in which you're mafia above.

The fact that you had a huge case on me pre-flip suggests that you were planning on going on me the following day. This suggests that I'm living and that the shining could possibly be confirmed town going into the night (hence the world where you stacked with copcake being the logic one). Moreover, thinking about it, even if you did see the logic, if you expected 3kp in the night we would end up in a 2v1 anyway.



I glanced over your filter but I couldn't really find anything substantial either way. The fact that the game was like 3/4 years ago and one of your first games (I believe), kind of invalidates any filter-logic.




You are hitting the same points over and over, and it's annoying. I think it's clear from my posts that I'm winning, but as town. Whatever. I think I've refuted all your points with this post, and I expect to hear something fresh before EoD.

I'm not crazy about the option to sleep myself since I think scum!Super just wins then, but if that's my only choice besides lynching Shining hoping that I've been wrong on him all game... I think it's what I prefer.