SSL Ro16 Day 1

It's only the first week of January and we're already braced for a lot of changes for 2016. Starcraft II Starleague will be no different as it debuts a new format for the year. Instead of the traditional group stage for the Ro16, the entire tournament will be held in a bracket format, with the Top 4 players competing in a round robin to decide the finalists. It's an unconventional format that has pros and cons—just as any format—and it will be interesting to see whether it ends up creating more or defusing the hype leading towards the tail end of the season.



What's certain is that the Korean SC2 scene just got even more unforgiving. With only two seasons announced so far and no room for error in SSL, only the most consistent players will rise to the top. Throw in the fact that LotV's still very raw and unpredictable and, well, who knows what's going to happen.



Legacy of the Void competitive record:
INnoVation: 19-9 (11-3 in TvZ)
RagnaroK: 45-36 (19-12 in ZvT)


After a humbling, KeSPA Jail-worthy showing in the Nation Wars final last Sunday, it’s going to be very interesting to see how INnoVation performs tonight. While he was certainly by far the best performing member of the Korean trident throughout the competition, his capitulation in the finals will still live long in the memory. There have been plenty of excuses banded around—that playing at 6am on no sleep is hardly ideal; that it was played online; that this upcoming SSL match may have been rated as far more important—but, fact is, he should have been expected to win. Six years down the line from the release of Wings of Liberty, we’ve become used to Koreans dominating online and offline, regardless of time or location. Even last year, we saw Cure emerge victorious in the IEM Katowice Qualifiers after a marathon 18 hour session across all three regions.

However, it is difficult to judge anyone’s strength in such a new game, and this will be his first televised game in TvZ against Korean opposition. Nation Wars suggested that he’s maintained his traditional strength against zerg, reverting to a bio-tank style in victories over Elazer and Nerchio in the semifinals, managing to overcome initial setbacks on both occasions. In those two matches, neither zerg opted for much harassment; Elazer gambling on an ineffective roach/ravager push, while Nerchio preferred to rush to hive, before botching the decisive engagements. It’s telling that the one win Nerchio picked off featured a roach rush, and perhaps the SKT terran’s weakness in the early game has remained. It remains to be seen how a stronger player might hit with sharper timings, or engage more effectively into a mass siege tank line.

For RagnaroK too, the new expansion seems to be a case of ‘same old story’. He’s forever been a player tipped to become a quality performer in Korea ever since his early days on TSL, endlessly promising without ever achieving, and a career spent lurking on the fringes of Code A / Code S has undoubtedly featured more setbacks than glory. His top six placement at MLG Anaheim threatened to be the moment from which he could kick on to solidify his spot in the Korean hierarchy, but it’s been 18 months since that one outlier. However, his run in the qualifier bracket (beating Leenock, Dream and Life) has given him a spot in the top sixteen of this first truncated season of the SSL—further than he’s ever been in the past. Get past INnoVation here, and a spot in the dual elimination bracket would be temptingly close.

Unfortunately for him, his ZvT results suggest that he’s still struggling to break out of his shell. He’s generally beaten everyone you’d expect, while losing to superior terrans (Sorry, ByuN, Reality). The one exception is Dream, but that terran’s mediocre TvZ on the whole (45% win rate in 2015 HotS) has been masked by those transcendent displays against Life. RagnaroK will certainly have to show us a higher level of play than we've previously seen to reach the top 8.

Predictions:

Frankly, this is all on INnoVation. Perform up to scratch and it’s pretty unlikely that he loses here. Experience another mind melt, though, and who knows what could happen, especially in a mere best of three. A quick pair of roach rushes / nydus plays could work wonders.

INnoVation 2 - 0 RagnaroK