EPTDark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 123
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 12 2015 01:04 Rels wrote: Hey guys I found this thing lying around in BH's bedroom! Apparently it's some kind of guide to win this game! Awesome right ? Let me transcript it for you: I hope he doesn't remark I took it ... Townie guide to winning this game Step 1: Required reading disfo's case on DYH FF's interactions with DYH are partner indicative DYH's scumread of disfo has no basis: he voted him on an "initial insctinct" which doesn't exist Part 2 of the thing above Step 2: Vote DYH Step 3: Lynch DYH Step 4: Win | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 14 2015 05:20 DoYouHas wrote: So I am your pick disfo? or is LS? or are you trying to attack shining instead of genuinely pushing a better lynch. I want The Shining to work with me and explain his reads a bit better. Yeah, currently it is: DYH > LS > NM > TS > Me In terms of scumminess, but I am having a bit of hard time in reading LS, which gives me a bit of a pause. On December 14 2015 05:22 DoYouHas wrote: Like, if you agree with your own case and all the things Rels posted against me, why are you hesitating? Fair enough. As per my current order of scumminess lets vote you. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 09 2015 23:58 disformation wrote: Okay. Here we go for real. ![[image loading]](http://files.gamebanana.com/img/ico/sprays/objection.png) The following spoiler contains the whole lot of Onegu's filter. Warning: open on own risk, it is kinda huge and the mass could smother you. I will not be accountable to any injuries. + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 00:29 Onegu wrote: Onegu VT claim. Be back later Sooo... If anyone has advise on how to get a read from that, I will gladly listen to that.  Otherwise I am really not sure how in the nine hells I am supposed to have a read on him. I hereby boldly proclaim that not having a read on Onegu is probably NAI. No HtS never got to rereading me. Also remember she never pushed DYH D1? Or voted him for what I can remember. Could have easily be a scum lean on a partner to hide the connection. I am very sure I said something similar to this in some of my town games, but that would be self meta so I'll go with: "okay, if you say so". Of course I do leave her openings, she was sick and not playing much, that is the polite thing to do here. And me worrying about FF is the same thing I wrote about yesterday prior to lunch. Well, since HtS wasn't exactly posting much at the time, there was not much new in her filter to find. If you read a filter a few times and can't come up with a conclusion what are you to do? Well this doctor has good advise for me I suppose: ![[image loading]](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ft-LOumBOlA/hqdefault.jpg) Last game I was able to correctly form a town lean/read on FF after having a bit of a conversation with him in thread, so I was hoping for this to happen again, so I tried to engage him everytime he popped up. But you are right, I should have been more hesitant to town lean him off being lazy and be more suspicious since we never managed to have decent conversation. The rest of your case pretty much boils down to me having trouble deciding what to do with HtS D2. Yeah, you are right it looks pretty bad. I guess I had too much trouble evaluating her outside the sickness thing. HtS coached me in my second game here and we get along really well, maybe that affected my ability to really evaluate her this game and made me wish it was only the sickness that affected her play. Another bad mistake I have to learn from I guess. So outside me not voting HtS D2 and generally looking bad on my progression on her D2. I kinda feel you are trying to look at the trees a bit too hard and start to come up with stuff that is kinda NAI or not really hard mafia indicative (like the Onegu thing). I would like you to take a step back and look at my overall play this game. Do you really think I didn't try to solve this game? If the answer is yes: feel free to lynch me, I'll still flip green, though. Other good pointers on how to proceed: Disformation never used images in his previous town games. scum read. Disformation is defending himself too much. scum read. Disformation is not defending himself at all. scum read. The thing about this response to my caase is that pretty much none of it makes Disfo not scum. Almost none of this response disproves my case. I'll skip the part about Onegu because like I said, its one post and hes right, its NAI. Disfo agrees on HtS never rereading him, which is true. However, he uses that block to discuss her willingness to lynch DYH/Kush. Says its a way to cover for her scum partner. But by that same train of thought, NOT rereading someone she promised to reread (Disfo) is also a cover for a partner. Especially since she was heavily scummed after she came back. Discussing Disfo after a reread if he's her scum partner is way too risky, so she avoided doing it altogether. Next block is a self-meta/"OK if you say so.". Again not disproving or addressing what I'm saying. He uses a polite excuse as the reason for excusing HtS absence in the next block. The thing is, these things he was excusing(her absence, lack of reads, lack of follow-up) is exactly what made her scum. It seems he was just hesitant to scum his RB so early. Next block is another non-defense. He implies he read her filter a few times and couldn't come up with a conclusion, but the fact still stands that he asked the thread if she had posted in the night. If he had read her filter a few times, he would know she hadn't posted. But he's not trying to figure out HTS alignment because he already knows it. So he asks the thread to see where they're at RE: HtS. Next block, he refers to his correct lean on FF in the last game and that being why he wanted to engage him. But he gave no read on FF neither before or after these attempted engagements, other than lazy town FF which he had before the interactions. So the only thing I can get from those interactions was to interact for interactions sake. He even admits that I'm right in that he should've been more suspicious after not being able to really engage with FF. But like HTS, if he already knows FFs alignment, there's no reason to be suspicious. Then he dismisses the rest of my case as being not sure what to do with HTS. Which is not true. I made more points about FF but even so, his vote not landing on HtS just looks so bad. He uses his past experience with HtS to try to explain his actions as unsure or being nice, but its an appeal to emotion, not what actually happened in the game. If so, he would've said these mthings originally, not when he was asked to explain them. Then there's every follow up after I said I originally didn't like his response to my case. And his filter starts really falling off around that point. A lot of it is "Shining, what didn't you like? Can you do this?" He's talking to me like I'm confirmed town and it doesn't once occur to him that I could maybe be scum trying to push his mislynch. Why? Because he knows I'm not scum. Which brings me to NM. Revisiting his vote on me and suspicion today, it feels like it comes from town. The paranoia and realizing I'm heavily townread and alive is true. However, shooting me when I've been on him for 2 day phases is too telling for him to shoot me. It gives him away. Instead he's forced to play the risky game of keeping me alive and WIFOMing like he has been trying to and trying to convince me he's town. He has spent more time trying to convince myself and the thread he's town than he has trying to find the last scum. He claims he wouldn't have been here at EoD even if he was the lynch but there's no way to prove that. He's been scumming DYH for days and even though he's pushed him, he's never actively trying to get him lynched at EoD. Also, right after I cased him, he tried his best to ride the town cred from hammering FF. Even made a nice spoilered post about it. But what I don't understand is if he's under suspicion like he was before the FF lynch, and FF is just a goon, why wouldn't he try to hammer for some cred? People here including myself have entertained the thought of NM bussing his RB upon entering the game. Which is more likely? NM bussing his RB with a possible vet in the game? Or a scumread Disfo hammering FF after seeing the votes minutes before EoD and panicking about not lynching scum twice? He NEEDED to bus FF, or it would've been two scum lynches he wasn't on, on top of being scumread. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 14 2015 05:04 LightningStrike wrote: I thought you were going to go to NM? O_o I explained why NM could be town after voting me in my last post. I am trusting my early reads in the game, when I said Disfo and FF were likely scum before FF was ever a lynch. Nothing Disfo has done this game reeks of town to me. Just cautious and hedging scum | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 14 2015 05:42 The Shining wrote: Which is more likely? NM bussing his RB with a possible vet in the game? Or a scumread Disfo hammering FF after seeing the votes minutes before EoD and panicking about not lynching scum twice? He NEEDED to bus FF, or it would've been two scum lynches he wasn't on, on top of being scumread. Oh, that one gave me a nice idea... Scum knew that there could not be a possible vet in this game after the boxer flip. Possible setups: [/QUOTE]A: 1-shot cop, 1-shot vigi, 8x VT, Goon, GF, RB B: 1-shot cop, BoxeR, 8x VT, Goon, Goon, RB C: 1-shot vigi, BoxeR, 8x VT, Goon, Goon, RB D: Veteran, BoxeR, 8x VT, Goon, GF, RB Boxer flip leaves 3 possible setups. Since the Vigi flip we know it is Setup C with Goon, Goon, RB. The possible setup with the Vet would have been Goon, GF, RB. Meaning after the boxer flip scum knew it was B or C since they at least had to know their roles. No vet possible. Which should make it a bunch easier to bus the RB early... | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 14 2015 05:22 DoYouHas wrote: Like, if you agree with your own case and all the things Rels posted against me, why are you hesitating? Like this. This is good. Why does your top scumread for 2-3 days have to push you to vote him? I don't understand the town motivation behind that level of motivation. Disformation has numerous instances where he hedges and suspects others before easily dropping it while keeping his stubborn read on DYH. At one point he hedged on me early in the game, said I wasn't the town Shining he was used to on D1 and I had better poosts last game. Then in one of his list posts after that, he said I was town D1 from what he could remember. But that's not true, according to his hedging and suspicion. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 14 2015 05:55 disformation wrote: Oh, that one gave me a nice idea... Scum knew that there could not be a possible vet in this game after the boxer flip. Boxer flip leaves 3 possible setups. Since the Vigi flip we know it is Setup C with Goon, Goon, RB. The possible setup with the Vet would have been Goon, GF, RB. Meaning after the boxer flip scum knew it was B or C since they at least had to know their roles. No vet possible. Which should make it a bunch easier to bus the RB early...[/QUOTE] Thanks for the slip. Everyone should go vote Disfo now. Scum had a Goon and RB flip. There is no way for any other town to know whether the 3rd scum was a goon or GF. Vig didn't flip until the NK last night. Even if scum knows their roles, we only know the goon and RB flipped. You just implied there is a GF. After the boxer flip, even if scum knew their own roles, you shouldn't. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 14 2015 06:00 The Shining wrote: Boxer flip leaves 3 possible setups. Since the Vigi flip we know it is Setup C with Goon, Goon, RB. The possible setup with the Vet would have been Goon, GF, RB. Meaning after the boxer flip scum knew it was B or C since they at least had to know their roles. No vet possible. Which should make it a bunch easier to bus the RB early... Thanks for the slip. Everyone should go vote Disfo now. Scum had a Goon and RB flip. There is no way for any other town to know whether the 3rd scum was a goon or GF. Vig didn't flip until the NK last night. Even if scum knows their roles, we only know the goon and RB flipped. You just implied there is a GF. After the boxer flip, even if scum knew their own roles, you shouldn't.[/QUOTE] No clue what you are talking about here. There are 4 possible setups. We had a Boxer and a vigi flip. which 100% means it is setup C. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
So now you're saying NM is scum and bussed then? Because even if scum would know its B or C after the Boxer flip, without having a GF, bussing an RB when they could block a possible red check or Vig shot is still not the most optimal play. Especially since without the Vig flip at that point, they wouldn't know if there's a cop or not. Bussing a goon when you're under suspicion is still a likely play. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
Disfo says "oh crap remember FF entrance? I was suspicious of him cuz he was always doing stuff and quite lazy like last game" but he wasn't suspicious of him. He towned him for these reasons. It took until right before EoD when the lynch started for Disfo to use these same reasons he towned him as the reason why he was voting him. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 14 2015 06:08 The Shining wrote: See my last post. I didn't actually realize what setup it was or that the Vig flip confirmed it. But you're so aware of it. As if it was discussed in a Mafia QT =D So now you're saying NM is scum and bussed then? Because even if scum would know its B or C after the Boxer flip, without having a GF, bussing an RB when they could block a possible red check or Vig shot is still not the most optimal play. Especially since without the Vig flip at that point, they wouldn't know if there's a cop or not. Bussing a goon when you're under suspicion is still a likely play. Yeah, sure I've discussed that with HtS over a game of Dota and while drinking a bottle of whiskey. + Show Spoiler + not serious here More likely DYH with his super early case for max cred. Can't completely rule out a NM bus, but the rest of his filter looks much more town to me than DYH's. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote: So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make. Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads. Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere. Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. This analysis is getting stronger btw. ##Vote: Disfo | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
On December 14 2015 05:44 The Shining wrote: I explained why NM could be town after voting me in my last post. I am trusting my early reads in the game, when I said Disfo and FF were likely scum before FF was ever a lynch. Nothing Disfo has done this game reeks of town to me. Just cautious and hedging scum Fair enough... Baaaaaaaaaaaah ![[image loading]](http://www.globalmeatnews.com/var/plain_site/storage/images/publications/food-beverage-nutrition/globalmeatnews.com/industry-markets/future-of-eu-sheep-discussed/10353815-1-eng-GB/Future-of-EU-sheep-discussed.jpg) ##Unvote ##Vote: disformation | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 09 2015 06:14 The Shining wrote: I love Monday Tuesday phases. /sarcasm Phone posting. I still want to lynch ff or disfo, honestly. FF taking the cheap sheep route is bad. And disfos posts just aren't feeling like the town disfo I played with before. Weak meta reads because I don't have time to filter but I really do feel I'm right on at least one of these, probably disfo. I liked DYHs points on hts association, too, I've made similar cases over weird interactions and reads between scummates before. I wish he hadn't backed down on it. NM Rels Trfel and DYH are town pile. Fidei doesn't feel as bad to me anymore. Voting disfo or ff. On December 09 2015 07:33 The Shining wrote: I actually like this train of thought, too, and it's one of the reasons that I want to lynch ff. Like I see what are in my opinion a lot of town on town interactions and the ones not weighing in on it are not doing so because they want town to bury themselves On December 09 2015 07:56 The Shining wrote: Honestly I'm voting fecal and I think I should be sheeped regardless of those not TRing trfel. It was also brought up that ppl don't want to take LS to lylo Why would you want to take ff to lylo then? How is it possible Disfo could have 0 reactions to any of these posts then pull this off? On December 09 2015 07:58 The Shining wrote: He just realizes this now. Tell me again why Disfo is town Obvious bus is obvious | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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