EPTDYH hardly touched FF, if at all. double checking his filter.
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 108
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
DYH hardly touched FF, if at all. double checking his filter. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Trfel has since flipped town. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Let me give you this hypothetical scenario. You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town. Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why? | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 11 2015 10:24 NocturneMage wrote: Skimmed from night 3 to disformation, your rebuttal to Shining's case. So in summation you think Shining is tunnelling/confirmation bias on you. You proposed that if you got mislynched and town were wrong on both you and DYH, that LS and Fidei are the next likely mafia. What are you gauging them at as they do things through this cycle? Can you make an argument for either of them making the plays they have as mafia? Any voting arguments or motives from those two in your own words? I haven't seen much in the way from you, from others yes, but not from you. (If you have, just quote it, thanks.) Hm had a small case on Fidei86 earlier last day phase: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2015 10:24 NocturneMage wrote: Skimmed from night 3 to disformation, your rebuttal to Shining's case. So in summation you think Shining is tunnelling/confirmation bias on you. You proposed that if you got mislynched and town were wrong on both you and DYH, that LS and Fidei are the next likely mafia. What are you gauging them at as they do things through this cycle? Can you make an argument for either of them making the plays they have as mafia? Any voting arguments or motives from those two in your own words? I haven't seen much in the way from you, from others yes, but not from you. (If you have, just quote it, thanks.) Had a small case on Fidei86 last day phase: On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote: Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter. Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy? N1 he also moves back to HtS... Bold part for smiles.  After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier. His probing of NM seems town. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler + nope Still waiting. Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now. So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate. LS is kinda hard for me to read, probably need to play a few games with him. But most of his play here doesn't look like a solvent to this game. Kinda irks that he gets so much town reads for screaming around at EoD cause that should be pretty easy to fake. The Rels <> FF interactions didn't look so hot either. Probably need to recheck these three and the forest they planted this game to really decide who the #2 would be. Will try to do so tomorrow afternoon. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Nothing to me has screamed scummy except the Dani softing d2 (if he should be scum). | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 09 2015 05:07 Fidei86 wrote: This party is going on and I won't have time to read more filters. Please move on to LS. I will consolidate if it's clear its Trfel or DY, but I don't want to lynch either of them right now. On December 09 2015 06:31 Fidei86 wrote: I would vote FF if nobody wants to join my LS lynch. But I don't really want to vote for DYH. I'd vote Trfel over him. This makes James less likely to be mafia. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 11 2015 10:46 disformation wrote: Hm had a small case on Fidei86 earlier last day phase: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2015 10:24 NocturneMage wrote: Skimmed from night 3 to disformation, your rebuttal to Shining's case. So in summation you think Shining is tunnelling/confirmation bias on you. You proposed that if you got mislynched and town were wrong on both you and DYH, that LS and Fidei are the next likely mafia. What are you gauging them at as they do things through this cycle? Can you make an argument for either of them making the plays they have as mafia? Any voting arguments or motives from those two in your own words? I haven't seen much in the way from you, from others yes, but not from you. (If you have, just quote it, thanks.) Had a small case on Fidei86 last day phase: On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote: Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter. Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy? N1 he also moves back to HtS... Bold part for smiles. After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier. His probing of NM seems town. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler + nope Still waiting. Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now. So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate. LS is kinda hard for me to read, probably need to play a few games with him. But most of his play here doesn't look like a solvent to this game. Kinda irks that he gets so much town reads for screaming around at EoD cause that should be pretty easy to fake. The Rels <> FF interactions didn't look so hot either. Probably need to recheck these three and the forest they planted this game to really decide who the #2 would be. Will try to do so tomorrow afternoon. Eh. This cycle, so my case of Fidei is a bit outdated. xD Sry, 02:48 am here. Will also go to bed shortly. LS seems kinda lost this day phase so far. Don't like that I currently have no idea who he will vote for. Did he have a stance on me and DYH? Basically the same for Fidei86... Rels is pushing his (and mine) scum read. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 09 2015 08:20 Fidei86 wrote: @NM It has to be one of you and Rels. In what universe does mafia not solidly vote together on a lynch, given that town was so hopelessly fractured (in part my bad). On December 09 2015 18:47 Fidei86 wrote: The thing I don't understand is how the VCA, in my mind, massively implicates either Rels or Alex. But neither seems to think that it could possibly be the other. ??? the position has been explained to James twice that mafia wouldn't give themselves so easily away unless it was mylo or lylo with a confirmed mafia already on the same wagon with them. Is Fidei bad or mafia here? Looking at the votes alone you can argue that LS thinks scum played suboptimally. But both Rels and I have reasons to townread the other besides the voting. The second part is contradictory. Granted James is out of touch with the thread. Hmmmm. I'm going to say for now, suboptimal and pressed for time, as opposed to mafia. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
He's an American so I do not expect that response to come for awhile. It's 2am here, so I will sort it out in the morning. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
If it's 2-1 lylo and Shining is alive I would lynch him. That would be my instinct. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 11 2015 10:50 NocturneMage wrote: This makes James less likely to be mafia. Would like the bold part more, if he actually would have voted FF. But yeah. Fidei86 also put a bit of work into the game after the small case on him was done. So I think he is unlikely scum. In a world were town is wrong on both DYH and me, there might exist a crazy tinfoil, where Rels is the last scum and he has me in his pocket + helps me stay focused on DYH so he can misslynch us both. Like: Don't think that is likely though. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On December 11 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote: DYH, I have a question for you. Let me give you this hypothetical scenario. You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town. Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why? Rels, definitely rels. I'm actually considering him being potentially more likely than disfo. Trfel's death points his direction. He has push cases and suspicions almost exclusively on townies. He defends or doesn't interact with scum. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
I'll see what I can come up with this cycle(still a bit little confusing as I still need to filter dive more people). | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Vote Count DoYouHas (2): disformation, Rels disformation (1): DoYouHas Not Voting (4): Fidei86, LightningStrike, The Shining, NocturneMage Currently DoYouHas is set to be lynched. This Day ends at Friday, Dec 11 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) aka 23:00 GMT (+00:00). Lynch Voting is done in the voting thread (here). Do not PM me your vote. Voting is mandatory. You may not abstain. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going. Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up. The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels. It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo. ##Vote: Rels | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 11 2015 12:41 LightningStrike wrote: Anyways Rels if you are here can you tell me why you thought Tfrel was more scum than FF at EoD? 1 - the whole day I was suspicious of Trfel. 2 - at EOD he came back voting me with no explanation; left; than came back changing his mind again and voted FF. I found that suspicious. 3 - I have DYH as scum, and I found his behaviour towards Trfel at EOD maybe partner indicative; he said he was OK to lynch Trfel; didn't vote him; and went back on disfo. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 11 2015 11:14 DoYouHas wrote: Rels, definitely rels. I'm actually considering him being potentially more likely than disfo. Trfel's death points his direction. He has push cases and suspicions almost exclusively on townies. He defends or doesn't interact with scum. On December 11 2015 13:57 DoYouHas wrote: Look at night kills: Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going. Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up. The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels. It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo. ##Vote: Rels =D these are not reason that makes someone scum: pushing townies and "he is townread so he killed undecided townies". What are your reasons for reverting your read on disfo ? Last time I checked your reasons for scumreading him were: On December 09 2015 07:16 DoYouHas wrote: I haven't completely flipped on you. I am still quite suspicious. Unless shining gets in here and helps me, that doesn't matter at the moment. I said my case was weaker because I realized that I wasn't able to recognize that trfel could have had that much interaction with HtS and still be either alignment. He had interactions with Breshke last game that even knowing both of their alignments, I wouldn't have found it suspect. That means the back half of my reasoning on you is not as sound as it needed to be to push your lynch. On December 09 2015 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct. ##Vote: Disformation Shining, get on this wagon. Can you expand on your "initial instinct" ? 'cause your initial instinct on disfo seems to me to be town. You even literally said "That was my gut read from the earlier filter reading." during D2: On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. On December 04 2015 14:38 DoYouHas wrote: The smart play for town if you do not have any good scumreads of your own at the end of the day is to sheep the scumreads of those you believe to be town, which is exactly what I did. And yes, Disfo gets lumped into my towngroup. That was my gut read from the earlier filter reading. Not particularly useful when I was searching for scum as I was choking on town/null reads and unable to find things I wanted to pursue. It was useful in deciding where to place my vote at the end of the day. On December 06 2015 07:04 DoYouHas wrote: My PoE right now looks like this: Town: Rels, Shining, LS(I am still on board with the EoD VT claim) Townlean: Disfo, Palmar, Fid (need to look into him more) Unfiltered: NM, FF Suspicious but incomplete: Trfel Scum: HTS Then you voted disfo for this reason: On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote: So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make. Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads. Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere. Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. - I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves. ##Vote: Disformation On December 07 2015 09:47 DoYouHas wrote: It is not about # of interactions. It is about who is out of place in the people HtS decided to list once you eliminate those confirmed as town. Her interaction with Trfel makes him very likely town. Damdred is confirmed town. Rels is likely town and her interaction with him is not out of place. Kush is confirmed town. I'm town. Also, her scumread on me was consistent and something that she came back to more than once. Then you said it was not quite as scum indicative as you initially thought: On December 07 2015 09:48 DoYouHas wrote: But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff. On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote: Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused... This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum. So: Your "initial instinct" on disfo was town; you only had him as scum after a HTS' list posts analysis, which you quickly said afterwards that it was not really valid. What reason did "initial instinct" refer to when you voted disfo at EOD3 in this post? On December 09 2015 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct. ##Vote: Disformation Shining, get on this wagon. Then, what was your reason to vote disfo again more than 24 hour later ? On December 10 2015 13:18 DoYouHas wrote: It has been a long ass day. I'm going to come back and actually read this tomorrow with non-exhausted eyes. ##Vote: Disfo See you all tomorrow. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 07 2015 09:48 DoYouHas wrote: But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff. Didn't: On December 07 2015 13:11 DoYouHas wrote: Dinner stuff ran long. More case making delayed till tomorrow And on your next post 24 hours later unvoted him without saying anything about the content of his posts. On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote: Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused... This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum. I have no idea what you mean by "going with my initial insctinct, ##vote disfo". | ||
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