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On December 12 2015 01:06 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 00:59 LightningStrike wrote:On December 12 2015 00:37 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:34 LightningStrike wrote:On December 11 2015 17:44 Rels wrote:On December 11 2015 12:41 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways Rels if you are here can you tell me why you thought Tfrel was more scum than FF at EoD? 1 - the whole day I was suspicious of Trfel. 2 - at EOD he came back voting me with no explanation; left; than came back changing his mind again and voted FF. I found that suspicious. 3 - I have DYH as scum, and I found his behaviour towards Trfel at EOD maybe partner indicative; he said he was OK to lynch Trfel; didn't vote him; and went back on disfo. Okay I will see if that actually lines up. Sure, can you vote DYH afterwards ? 1. Okay... 2. He said he didn't like some stuff from you(was very vague) hence why he voted for you. 3. And that's why assiocation reads are generally not that great  Anyways I could possibly vote DYH but the wagon buildpotentally troubling. I'll weigh the options in a little bit. How is it troubling ? And more generally, how could a wagon building be potentially troubling when there is only one scum alive ?
Sometimes when a wagon builds up pretty fast then something is generally wrong but that just from my experience. I will filter dive dis vs DYH since both of them seem to be the main lynches as far I could tell so I'll do that.
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On December 12 2015 01:07 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 01:06 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:59 LightningStrike wrote:On December 12 2015 00:37 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:34 LightningStrike wrote:On December 11 2015 17:44 Rels wrote:On December 11 2015 12:41 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways Rels if you are here can you tell me why you thought Tfrel was more scum than FF at EoD? 1 - the whole day I was suspicious of Trfel. 2 - at EOD he came back voting me with no explanation; left; than came back changing his mind again and voted FF. I found that suspicious. 3 - I have DYH as scum, and I found his behaviour towards Trfel at EOD maybe partner indicative; he said he was OK to lynch Trfel; didn't vote him; and went back on disfo. Okay I will see if that actually lines up. Sure, can you vote DYH afterwards ? 1. Okay... 2. He said he didn't like some stuff from you(was very vague) hence why he voted for you. 3. And that's why assiocation reads are generally not that great Anyways I could possibly vote DYH but the wagon buildpotentally troubling. I'll weigh the options in a little bit. How is it troubling ? And more generally, how could a wagon building be potentially troubling when there is only one scum alive ? Sometimes when a wagon builds up pretty fast then something is generally wrong but that just from my experience. I will filter dive dis vs DYH since both of them seem to be the main lynches as far I could tell so I'll do that.
Do you think 2 votes in 41 hours is pretty fast ?
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On December 12 2015 01:09 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 01:07 LightningStrike wrote:On December 12 2015 01:06 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:59 LightningStrike wrote:On December 12 2015 00:37 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:34 LightningStrike wrote:On December 11 2015 17:44 Rels wrote:On December 11 2015 12:41 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways Rels if you are here can you tell me why you thought Tfrel was more scum than FF at EoD? 1 - the whole day I was suspicious of Trfel. 2 - at EOD he came back voting me with no explanation; left; than came back changing his mind again and voted FF. I found that suspicious. 3 - I have DYH as scum, and I found his behaviour towards Trfel at EOD maybe partner indicative; he said he was OK to lynch Trfel; didn't vote him; and went back on disfo. Okay I will see if that actually lines up. Sure, can you vote DYH afterwards ? 1. Okay... 2. He said he didn't like some stuff from you(was very vague) hence why he voted for you. 3. And that's why assiocation reads are generally not that great Anyways I could possibly vote DYH but the wagon buildpotentally troubling. I'll weigh the options in a little bit. How is it troubling ? And more generally, how could a wagon building be potentially troubling when there is only one scum alive ? Sometimes when a wagon builds up pretty fast then something is generally wrong but that just from my experience. I will filter dive dis vs DYH since both of them seem to be the main lynches as far I could tell so I'll do that. Do you think 2 votes in 41 hours is pretty fast ?
I mean each time people tried to lynch DYh the votes come in a little fast in the past day phases(at least if i remember how fast people voted then unvoted him) Anyways the way talked about FF didn't much talk at all and seemed to distanced himself from him. Now going to dis's filter.
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On December 12 2015 01:13 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 01:09 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 01:07 LightningStrike wrote:On December 12 2015 01:06 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:59 LightningStrike wrote:On December 12 2015 00:37 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 00:34 LightningStrike wrote:On December 11 2015 17:44 Rels wrote:On December 11 2015 12:41 LightningStrike wrote:
Anyways Rels if you are here can you tell me why you thought Tfrel was more scum than FF at EoD? 1 - the whole day I was suspicious of Trfel. 2 - at EOD he came back voting me with no explanation; left; than came back changing his mind again and voted FF. I found that suspicious. 3 - I have DYH as scum, and I found his behaviour towards Trfel at EOD maybe partner indicative; he said he was OK to lynch Trfel; didn't vote him; and went back on disfo. Okay I will see if that actually lines up. Sure, can you vote DYH afterwards ? 1. Okay... 2. He said he didn't like some stuff from you(was very vague) hence why he voted for you. 3. And that's why assiocation reads are generally not that great Anyways I could possibly vote DYH but the wagon buildpotentally troubling. I'll weigh the options in a little bit. How is it troubling ? And more generally, how could a wagon building be potentially troubling when there is only one scum alive ? Sometimes when a wagon builds up pretty fast then something is generally wrong but that just from my experience. I will filter dive dis vs DYH since both of them seem to be the main lynches as far I could tell so I'll do that. Do you think 2 votes in 41 hours is pretty fast ? I mean each time people tried to lynch DYh the votes come in a little fast in the past day phases(at least if i remember how fast people voted then unvoted him) Anyways the way talked about FF didn't much talk at all and seemed to distanced himself from him. Now going to dis's filter.
Man it's time like this I realize I didn't make any vote recaps. Because I'm super sure you're wrong; I could never get this guy lynched ever. Will do this quickly.
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Yo, about to leave. Will be on phone a bit. Sry, I didn't get more stuff today, RL kinda distracting.
Will try to be on phone for DL.
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Okay I rather lynch DYH over dis atm after looking at their filters myself. I would like Shining to come back in and talk and see where he is at 
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Wow I didn't realize both DYH and FF voted HTS 1 hour 40 after start of D2.
On December 04 2015 09:40 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Half the Sky
On December 04 2015 09:42 Fecalfeast wrote:
##vote halfthesky
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On December 11 2015 10:55 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 08:20 Fidei86 wrote:
@NM
It has to be one of you and Rels. In what universe does mafia not solidly vote together on a lynch, given that town was so hopelessly fractured (in part my bad). Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 18:47 Fidei86 wrote:
The thing I don't understand is how the VCA, in my mind, massively implicates either Rels or Alex. But neither seems to think that it could possibly be the other. ??? the position has been explained to James twice that mafia wouldn't give themselves so easily away unless it was mylo or lylo with a confirmed mafia already on the same wagon with them. Is Fidei bad or mafia here? Looking at the votes alone you can argue that LS thinks scum played suboptimally. But both Rels and I have reasons to townread the other besides the voting. The second part is contradictory. Granted James is out of touch with the thread. Hmmmm. I'm going to say for now, suboptimal and pressed for time, as opposed to mafia.
Okay I'm back. Glad there wasn't too much to catch up on. Will read DYH and disfo's filters now if I can.
Quick rejoinder to the above -- you may say you have "explained" it, but I don't accept your explanation as being valid. A townie flip doesn't give nearly as much information as you are suggesting it does. And FF wasn't f'ing confirmed mafia at the time. What you're saying can be made to sound equally implausible - that on a contested lynch with votes moving all over the place, mafia wouldn't try to get a mislynch and then brazen it out.
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Vote recaps
Day 1 recap
+ Show Spoiler +
kushm4sta (7): disformation, Fidei86, Damdred, LightningStrike, The Shining, Rels, Half the Sky, Palmar
LightningStrike (4): Damdred, disformation, Palmar, Half the Sky, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel
MoosyDoosy (0): Palmar, Fidei86, Trfel, disformation, kushm4sta, LightningStrike
Rels (0): kushm4sta
The Shining (0): Palmar
DoYouHas (0): Rels, Half the Sky, Palmar, Rels
Trfel (0): DoYouHas
Fidei86 (0): Rels
Half the Sky (0): kushm4sta
Trfel (0): Trfel
Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu
Day 2 recap
+ Show Spoiler +
Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, FecalFeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike
DoYouHas (1): disformation
NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky
Day 3 recap
+ Show Spoiler +
FecalFeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation
Trfel (3): NocturneMage, FecalFeast, Rels
LightningStrike (1): Fidei86, LightningStrike
Fidei86 (1): Rels, LightningStrike, LightningStrike
disformation (1): DoYouHas
DoYouHas (0): Rels, disformation
Rels (0): Trfel
NocturneMage (0): Trfel
disformation (0): DoYouHas
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On December 04 2015 09:43 Fecalfeast wrote:
Let's just wagon HTS since her going completely silent the moment her hubby shows up in the game makes me pause. I get that she's sick (get well soon) but trfel's weirdness has made me second guess how much I agree with his scumread on NM.
Here is FF post after voting HTS, 1h40 after the deadline. I didn't realize it; I actually thought FF tried to put suspicions on other people that day. Him voting her this early definitely mean it was a prepared bus. The last scum has to be NM or DYH.
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How anyone can be voting for disfo when he effectively hammered FF, god only knows. yeah yeah yeah bussing blah blah, but there are SO many better options than him.
Moving on to DYH.
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Alright I'm leaving work, see you later. Please read the guide to winning this game I've found!
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On December 12 2015 01:54 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:43 Fecalfeast wrote:
Let's just wagon HTS since her going completely silent the moment her hubby shows up in the game makes me pause. I get that she's sick (get well soon) but trfel's weirdness has made me second guess how much I agree with his scumread on NM.
Here is FF post after voting HTS, 1h40 after the deadline. I didn't realize it; I actually thought FF tried to put suspicions on other people that day. Him voting her this early definitely mean it was a prepared bus. The last scum has to be NM or DYH.
Or you.
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I don't like DYH's response to me, I would have further asked him to provide a more non-WIFOM answer to what I stated.
The first nightkill I'm pretty sure can be attributed to HTS (to some extent).
Aggregate WIFOM analysis is perfectly fine but outside this (and aside the fact Rels is already voting DYH though tbf it's not really OMGUS) why is Rels mafia?
This is why timezones suck.
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On December 11 2015 11:14 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
DYH, I have a question for you.
Let me give you this hypothetical scenario.
You are town. Let's say disformation is lynched, and he flips town.
Who is likely to be scum in that situation and why? Rels, definitely rels. I'm actually considering him being potentially more likely than disfo. Trfel's death points his direction. He has push cases and suspicions almost exclusively on townies. He defends or doesn't interact with scum.
On December 11 2015 13:57 DoYouHas wrote:
Look at night kills:
Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going.
Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game
Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day
The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up.
The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels.
It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo.
##Vote: Rels
I'll be honest, I took a look at Rels filter last cycle but if you reappear can you explain what exactly about his pushes makes Rels mafia? I get the aggregate WIFOM analysis. I get that.
How are you distinguishing between a townie push that is straight up wrong and mafia push?
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On December 04 2015 09:00 DoYouHas wrote:Reposting this since Rels drowned it out with his aggression towards me last night. Seems relevant. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 14:52 DoYouHas wrote:
1. HtS padded her filter with a lot of recapping and clarifying and meta that doesn't lead to conclusions.
2. HtS spreads around quite a bit of suspicion but does not actually push anyone or really take the lead on anything.
- She scumleans me, plants her vote, and then does nothing to see me lynched. According to #555 I was actually more of a null read and her suspicion and vote were to get me to post more. There is no follow through here, either pressure wise or lynchwise.
- She scumleans kush, points out some stuff that she doesn't like, and then does nothing about it until shenanigans.
3. In spite of all her RL issues she has been plenty active, she is just not really doing anything except engaging Trfel and playing the middle ground.
4. Her play towards LS is highly suspicious. The way I understand it, HtS knows LS better than most. She was reading him critically before any of us and moved him towards null/scum first. She seems unwilling to lynch LS... until Damdred and Palmar take the lead. Then she provides a weak additional reason to not like LS (#627) and switches votes. Does she feel the need to justify her switch beyond just agreeing with Damdred and Palmar?
Here is the important part. Right after LS re-enters the thread super emotional, HtS starts positioning for a townflip and distancing herself from responsibility for the lynch.
LS is someone she knows better than most. She immediately starts doubting the wagon after he reenters the thread. Her response is, "quick! LS, prove to me you are town!" and "crap, I can't get a good enough sense of his meta in 20 minutes to derail this thing!". With the level of doubt she displayed on the wagon she was helping push she should have been among the first to push onto another candidate. Whether that is me or kush, which would make sense for her, or even just Moosy. Any of those plays makes sense for HtS. Instead, she sits on wagon she doesn't like for 30 minutes and only switches when somebody else will get the blame for starting a counterwagon, incidentally, onto another townie.
Why do we think that lynching DYH, who made and re-posted this very early on, is a good idea.
Admittedly my eyes are literally burning with tiredness right now, but I'm not convinced that either disfo or dyh are mafia. Of the two, I think it's 1,000,000 times more likely that it's DYH, but I'd actually rather lynch Rels, then NM. My reasoning, as it was before, is that I think mafia voted together on the last vote. I don't think that FF was sufficiently active to make it a dead cert that the coordination between mafia this game has been good.
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Looking at Rels' filter now.
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BTW if it's LS then I reserve the right to kick you all in the nuts. After I've kicked myself in the nuts.
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Like I have looked at DYH's argument for pushing HTS. It was similar to mine with less meta.
Like if I look at a random player John Smith that might have pulled the same performance as HTS day 1 and end of cycle, I would say something of the sort that it could be someone honestly struggling to flesh out alignments. The lack of strong conclusions would make me worry and warrant a cop check. This is what I'd think.
But the end of cycle behaviour in all forms was mafia indicative. Like if I'm the least experienced player and can figure that shit out, I am pretty sure most players here can. The DYH argument doesn't strike me as odd. Or TMIish.
But the timing?
I pieced together what HTS might have done when she was at home sick. Tried to use OGI and really got nowhere. But there's no telling who she was in qt with, or when they voted.
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I disagree on the voting theory but whatever.
I have no problem taking a mislynch if people are so sure and thinking that I bussed Dani. I can readily understand why people are sceptical that I have a god tier read on her, and especially for those that don't know us well.
Does anyone know how good Rels is at mafia? I think he endgamed once?
I'll carry on reading filters.
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EPT
