On December 08 2015 21:30 Rels wrote: Bro if you're mafia I ll be super impressed.
Being town is frustrating, but being Mafia is like being hunted. I wonder if that's a heuristic that might help in this game. Hmm.
Kind of a backhanded compliment there Rels, but I'll take it
You re the one that bought up disfo saying game is hard I'm pretty sure. When I read that I thought it was town indicative.
Ehhhhhhhhh it could be very slightly town indicative, but idk really. Easy to say from either alignment, and can have the effect of making town demoralised.
Man I had forgotten that DYH was scum. Please vote DYH and let's lynch scum. I hope that's enough to make you (yes, you, reading this) switch; read his filter and understand why. Hints: - what is his only strong read ? Did it start after a replacement of someone special to HTS ? Could scum know NM would push HTS regardless of NM's alignement ? - how strong is his other reads compared to his main one ? - what evolution his NM read take ? - is he doing nothing while tons of people are townreading him and fighting each other ?
1. Past Experience: Granted I only played around 3 games total with James on mafia forum but I had played with him voice too and in both type of mafia games if my memory is right on this: He never tried to policy lynch anyone as town(Himalayas).
On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote: In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before.
THIS IS A BLANTANT LIE ABOUT THE BOLDED HE SAW I ACTED IN HIMALAYAS AND DRAMS PLUS SEASON OF THE WITCH 2 IN THOSE 3 GAMES I HAD A ROUGH DAY 1 START INTO THIS TYPE OF GAME. 2. His read progression: His reads were for the most part static. I can confirm he had very static reads in Season of the Witch 2 when he was scum. To illustrate his progression I will put all his read posts just bellow: + Show Spoiler +
On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote: Town Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard" Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post. DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read. Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
On December 03 2015 07:14 LightningStrike wrote: Okay DAMDRED IS A FUCKING IDIOT WHY FORGOT TO READ I ME BEEN BUT HE READ ME CORRECTLY ALL BUT THE TIME HE BEEN MAFIA............. Dropping my vote on MD IDK HOME BUT I VT I DON'T TO DIE NOW. ##Vote:MooseyDoosey
On December 03 2015 07:49 disformation wrote: Hm, I don't know. I don't really feel the town vibe in his post. Like the capslock turn me off, I guess. Also had to read it twice to guess what his stance on Damdred is. But I haven't played a game with LightningStrike. I think I shadowed HtS in a game where LightningStrike was gunsmith, but I don't remember/recall him being that emotional.
What gives me a bit of a pause is that now nearly everyone is voting for LS. -.-
I think this probably makes disfo town as well.
Again potental NAI stuff but from dis this time around even thought dis never played as scum before.
On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote: Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush?
Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now.
See a pattern yet? He handing town reads like candy for reasons that could be replicated from both sides. Plus his read progression on me throughtout was mainly me being scum until earlier this day phase he said he would just policy me. Hint: he never policy lynch people to my knowledge as town. Then he went back to saying I'm scum with no content really changed in that time frame.
3. His HTS distancing: I'll let this post from dis pretty much speak for itself:
On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote: Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter. Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to:
On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote: Town Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard" Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post. DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read. Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy? N1 he also moves back to HtS...
On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote: I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that.
Bold part for smiles.
After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier. His probing of NM seems town.
On December 04 2015 23:43 Fidei86 wrote: I am utterly convinced that LS is Mafia. I am willing to accept that Dani is Mafia, although if she flips town we lynch Alex (possibly before LS).
But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again).
On December 05 2015 00:20 Fidei86 wrote: So LS, your scum team is me, DYH and Dani. Except scumming DYH is easy because he has been a low volume poster, scumming Dani is easy because Alex, and scumming me is easy because of OMGUS? All of your reasons for town reading people are "they are towny", or a call back to a past game.
This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia.
On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote: Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time).
Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now. So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though.
Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far?
So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate.
The quote above pretty much showed he distanced himself from HTS after HTS had flipped scum. Conclusion: Pretty much LYNCH WITH FIRE BOYS! ##Vote:Fidei86
Not yet 100% here. I kinda liked DYH's case on me, but him doing a 180° (again) is kinda strange. I need to double check something on this... Rels, why are you so sure LS is town? #1745 : Remember that I did a mistake with the "why is he not voting LS thing"
Can totes see DYH being a thing today. Will be here for reelz in about an hour.
On December 08 2015 22:31 disformation wrote: Not yet 100% here. I kinda liked DYH's case on me, but him doing a 180° (again) is kinda strange. I need to double check something on this... Rels, why are you so sure LS is town? #1745 : Remember that I did a mistake with the "why is he not voting LS thing"
Can totes see DYH being a thing today. Will be here for reelz in about an hour.
I had a post not a long time ago about it. A combination of LS yelling which he has never done as scum + HTS being OK with LS' lynch until 10 minutes before deadline, and then distancing herself from the lynch
On December 08 2015 22:31 disformation wrote: Not yet 100% here. I kinda liked DYH's case on me, but him doing a 180° (again) is kinda strange. I need to double check something on this... Rels, why are you so sure LS is town? #1745 : Remember that I did a mistake with the "why is he not voting LS thing"
Can totes see DYH being a thing today. Will be here for reelz in about an hour.
I had a post not a long time ago about it. A combination of LS yelling which he has never done as scum + HTS being OK with LS' lynch until 10 minutes before deadline, and then distancing herself from the lynch
Ah sry. Btw I was thinking about it for a moment, but I think I can add a bunch of points onto the case againt DYH.
in super short: Didn't he say he'd look at my interactions with HtS? No word of that... probably didn't find anything to scum read me off, so he switched? Also if you apply the read technique he used on me and HtS on him and HtS, what do you get? (need to double check this to verify, but from the top of my hat): HtS parked him on a scum lean for most of D1, but didn't push/interact with him. Also voted a bunch of ppl that were not DYH. His only mention of her d1 is that she is middleground and he coudln't find aynthing in her filter.
gotta run now, will verify and probably write a case when I am back.
On December 03 2015 07:01 DoYouHas wrote: Catching up now.
I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting.
On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him.[...]
1.2
On December 03 2015 08:15 disformation wrote: [...]His reason for voting LS:
On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from...[...]
Part 2: His sudden HtS push/vote
Despite having found nothing in HtS filter D1:
On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
He makes a case on her early N1, after NM is replaced in and says he is quite sure HtS is mafia. Sure he posted:
On December 03 2015 10:37 DoYouHas wrote: Before you all get ahead of yourselves and this gets lost, lets take a look at Kush's filter and reads.
Town reads on myself, trfel, and fid. Scum reads on Moosy and HtS. Convinced to lynch LS over Moosy.
Seems pretty suspicious of Rels (#240 & #547) but doesn't really push him. Doesn't townread Palmar like many of us have (myself included).
I think it is fair to say that he was at least townie-null on Damdred since it is Damdred's push on LS that got him to change his vote.
- Conclusion: I need to reread HtS with the new knowledge of Kush and LS (I agree that the deadline post makes him very, very likely town).
Just before NM came in. But that could just be a clever setup for the case. I mean he didn't really care about kush before the lynch and I can imagine HtS telling her teammates to bus her hard as soon as she sees NM replacing in. NM also said that she was at the PC at lynch time. So this plan could have been hatched as soon as like a few minutes after lunch time. Intermediate Part: A few strange posts here and there
On December 04 2015 09:03 DoYouHas wrote: BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
"Can I has my town cred plx?"
On December 06 2015 02:53 DoYouHas wrote: Damdred Reread
Palmar- believes he is town through most of the day. Becomes a little less convinced before he dies, but still a townread. Shining- Townread Rels- Townread, thinks he has a penchant for tunneling. LS- He believes the EoD D1 makes LS town. Trfel- Town that is wrong. Spends a lot of time trying to figure trfel out and waivers a lot. Fid- Townread early, likes what he has to say but is suspicious of him for activity/meta reasons. Disfo- Townread but not part of the "Strong town circle" DYH- Liked me early, didn't mention me much, but was ok with shifting to me or kush at EoD. So, null/scumlean. Moosy- Null
- Where Damdred overlaps with Kush is the townread on Fid, and that is about it.
"Look I am even doing stuff!" Part 3: His scum read on me
Again he does a 180° on me out of nowhere. Note that The Shining started to scum read me a while before, so the 2nd time DYH makes a case on someone already under suspicion. The opens up with a classy post on top of the deadline indicating I might be scum:
On December 07 2015 08:00 DoYouHas wrote: Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts.
1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town. 2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS. 3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy.
Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet.
Saying things between me and HtS look kinda off.
On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote: So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make.
On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote: Hey everyone.
A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed -
Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough.
Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why:
Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment?
When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up.
Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously.
disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game.
So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation.
Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence.
On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads.
Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere.
Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case.
On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible.
On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote: Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious.
I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return.
First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon.
Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change?
read her filter if you want to see her progression on me + Show Spoiler +
She thinks I town.
And where did you get that conclusion from?
On December 02 2015 04:38 Half the Sky wrote:
On December 02 2015 04:24 LightningStrike wrote: Okay I here now and Tfrel I did answer HTS just not directly quoted.
On December 02 2015 04:15 Half the Sky wrote: Looking at 346/349 -
LS, I'm not referring to meta. Let's make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here.
I'm not talking about Palmar's tone in general. I'm talking about his case. If you read the context differently, then tell me how you interpreted that.
You are saying that he's town because his tone is serious and from 349 it's based on meta. Okay fine, but regardless of meta, why would Palmar's case NOT be serious? What I'm trying to say here is that you are townreading him for a poor reason.
I didn't say it wasn't serious? Anyways the way he argued Shining like I said had a serious tone plus like said he did a very similar thing to me in Metal Mini when I was fighting him and felt frustrated with him. It took me a bit of arguing to get him to townread me in that game because I was still a newbie lol.... So it a little both but more towards personal experience with him.
Argh, no. I am saying that you said his tone is serious. In any case, you want to say you are giving a personal read towards him.
Alright, I still think this is a bad read because like I said before Palmar really can't be done off one read, but now that I've fleshed it out I don't think you are mafia for this. Still need to read the rest of your filter in conjunction with Trfel/Damdred when I return though.
Yeah....
"I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either.
Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread?
Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him.
The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise.
Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred.
DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush.
Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from.
Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will.
Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter.
Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it)
Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in...
4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo
- Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia.
However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting.
- I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves.
##Vote: Disformation
Then he does this post. I kinda like the approach, but it has the problem that it only looks into one direction. How did HtS treat me. I have zero influence and no clue what scum!HtS was planning. She was a coach in NSM17, where my town play was super bad D1 and N1. Maybe she was testing whether she could get me to start being overly defensive and set me up for a misslynch? Who knows? He then says:
On December 07 2015 09:48 DoYouHas wrote: But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff.
Which never happend. In his next post he does another 180° on me:
On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote: Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused...
This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote
My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum.
So... he sees ppl are not willing to vote me, realizes his one way association thing isn't great and does remove his vote. Though I am not 100% sure how reading Trfel's last game does weaken his stuff on me enough to unvote. Further explanation would be great. Conveniently he chooses two ppl that are suspected by a lot of ppl as his next targets. How does that wrap up in the big picture This part may be a bit WIFOMY, but in my head it makes incredible sense atm. Day 1 he sees that we have a lot of lynch bait around. He does try to get away with the least bit of work and votes whoever. NM gets replaced in, the scum team decides that max bussing for max town cred is the best strategy here. Since his D1 didn't look to great, he goes with for the cred with an early case. N2 he sees the case from The Shining on me. He decides to push me, too in the hopes of setting up the ML. Later he comes back to see, that no one is voting me, but can't find solid evidence to push me further. So he does an other 180° on me and tries to switch to easier targets. Conclusion Hand me a lighter, cause imma lynch this with fire.
Ah sidenote on Fidei86: I felt like he was trying a bit more to actually solve the game earlier today, so I feel a bit better about him. So. Switch to DYH, k?
1. Past Experience: Granted I only played around 3 games total with James on mafia forum but I had played with him voice too and in both type of mafia games if my memory is right on this: He never tried to policy lynch anyone as town(Himalayas).
On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote: In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before.
THIS IS A BLANTANT LIE ABOUT THE BOLDED HE SAW I ACTED IN HIMALAYAS AND DRAMS PLUS SEASON OF THE WITCH 2 IN THOSE 3 GAMES I HAD A ROUGH DAY 1 START INTO THIS TYPE OF GAME. 2. His read progression: His reads were for the most part static. I can confirm he had very static reads in Season of the Witch 2 when he was scum. To illustrate his progression I will put all his read posts just bellow: + Show Spoiler +
On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote: Town Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard" Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post. DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read. Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
On December 03 2015 07:14 LightningStrike wrote: Okay DAMDRED IS A FUCKING IDIOT WHY FORGOT TO READ I ME BEEN BUT HE READ ME CORRECTLY ALL BUT THE TIME HE BEEN MAFIA............. Dropping my vote on MD IDK HOME BUT I VT I DON'T TO DIE NOW. ##Vote:MooseyDoosey
On December 03 2015 07:49 disformation wrote: Hm, I don't know. I don't really feel the town vibe in his post. Like the capslock turn me off, I guess. Also had to read it twice to guess what his stance on Damdred is. But I haven't played a game with LightningStrike. I think I shadowed HtS in a game where LightningStrike was gunsmith, but I don't remember/recall him being that emotional.
What gives me a bit of a pause is that now nearly everyone is voting for LS. -.-
I think this probably makes disfo town as well.
Again potental NAI stuff but from dis this time around even thought dis never played as scum before.
On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote: Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush?
Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now.
See a pattern yet? He handing town reads like candy for reasons that could be replicated from both sides. Plus his read progression on me throughtout was mainly me being scum until earlier this day phase he said he would just policy me. Hint: he never policy lynch people to my knowledge as town. Then he went back to saying I'm scum with no content really changed in that time frame.
3. His HTS distancing: I'll let this post from dis pretty much speak for itself:
On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote: Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter. Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to:
On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote: Town Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.)
Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null
Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read.
Null Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today.
Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet.
HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels.
Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and
Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote.
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard" Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post. DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read. Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy? N1 he also moves back to HtS...
On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote: I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that.
Bold part for smiles.
After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier. His probing of NM seems town.
On December 04 2015 23:43 Fidei86 wrote: I am utterly convinced that LS is Mafia. I am willing to accept that Dani is Mafia, although if she flips town we lynch Alex (possibly before LS).
But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again).
On December 05 2015 00:20 Fidei86 wrote: So LS, your scum team is me, DYH and Dani. Except scumming DYH is easy because he has been a low volume poster, scumming Dani is easy because Alex, and scumming me is easy because of OMGUS? All of your reasons for town reading people are "they are towny", or a call back to a past game.
This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia.
On December 05 2015 00:23 LightningStrike wrote: BTW James you should check my read progression of DYH?
I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting.
Still waiting.
On December 08 2015 00:40 Fidei86 wrote: Gun to my head, on a pure gut read basis, I think the Mafia is likely 2 of LS, Disfo and NM. LS and NM I've discussed. Disfo is something I've been mulling for a while, and it's mostly because I feel all of his posts have tried to look useful but actually haven't been. (Filter dives to follow. I mean it this time).
Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now. So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though.
Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far?
So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate.
The quote above pretty much showed he distanced himself from HTS after HTS had flipped scum. Conclusion: Pretty much LYNCH WITH FIRE BOYS! ##Vote:Fidei86
(1) no. that bolded sentence refers to Trfel, not you (2) terrible. you are meta reading him off one game. static reads in of themselves do not make someone mafia. static reads with changing circumstances might though someone mafia, excepting jusitification. Fidei is updating reads. this makes me very suspicious of you. kushm4sta even argued you were using shitty meta to make your pushes day 1. this is so wrong I really don't understand how this could possibly be coming from a town standpoint. (3) more parroting and like I said before not really adding anything of value to the game. why aren't you looking at his final two pages of filter? why are YOUR reads not changing? why is his activity from last night making him mafia? explain in terms of that.
there is zero reason for LS to be town, I can't really understand the resistance to the LS lynch, it's off a very bad metric that can be faked (example: trfel faked emotion, but I digress), but we need to lynch trfel today.